2018-19 GPF: Men's Pregame Chat

[GS Forum Staff]

Entries as of 11/29/18

1 Shoma UNO JPN 2 Nathan CHEN USA 3 Michal BREZINA CZE 4 Sergei VORONOV RUS 5 Junhwan CHA KOR 6 Keegan MESSING CAN Substitutes 8 Alexander SAMARIN RUS 9 Matteo RIZZO ITA Withdrawn Yuzuru HANYU JPN

 

[Colonel Green]

The million dollar question, of course: does Hanyu compete or not, and what shape will he be in if he does?

 

[TallyT]

I voted for him to win if he's well enough to be there, but have to say I hope he is sensible and if necessary, withdraws and takes care of that ankle. Of course, it's Yuzuru. Known for a million and three great qualities, none of which - as far as I can make out - are common sense, caution, persuadability.....

 

[satine]

Putting Hanyu aside, what I am more interested in is seeing whether Chen or Uno will place higher

 

[Ichatdelune]

Although I think Yuzuru will win if he competes, I didn't vote for him because I want him to love his precious ankle cartilage and withdraw (I don't know about Japanese Nationals, but I don't see that ankle healing before GPF...) Of course he may do the Hanyu and compete nonetheless, but in the name of all things sacred he needs to think of his health first... (deep sigh)

 

[CoyoteChris]

Although I think Yuzuru will win if he competes, I didn't vote for him because I want him to love his precious ankle cartilage and withdraw (I don't know about Japanese Nationals, but I don't see that ankle healing before GPF...) Of course he may do the Hanyu and compete nonetheless, but in the name of all things sacred he needs to think of his health first... (deep sigh)

ITA. Even if the Japanese Fed gives him a pass on nats and puts him on the World Team, he can do lots better for himself and the Fed by being at worlds.

 

[CoyoteChris]

After watching France this week, sans comentary, and then watching Tara and Johnny roast Samarin tonight, my wife had a question I cant answer (not hard to do) . Why are the Russians now so weak in mens when they are so strong everywhere else? Where are the Kuliks and Yagudins? Obviously, the environment in Russia seems to be great for skaters right now....why not mens?

 

[Colonel Green]

If Hanyu competes, barring disaster from him, the top three are likely set, in some order.

In Hanyu withdraws, things get interesting for the bronze, looking at the range of scores this season for the bottom four guys:

1. 265.17 - Keegan Messing (SCI)
2. 259.78 - Cha Junhwan (ACI)
3. 257.98 - Michal Brezina (Helsinki)
4. 257.16 - Keegan Messing (Nebelhorn)
5. 254.77 - Cha Junhwan (SCI)
6. 254.73 - Sergei Voronov (NHK)
7. 243.19 - Cha Junhwan (Helsinki)
8. 239.73 - Sergei Voronov (Nepela)
9. 239.51 - Michal Brezina (SkAm)
10. 239.19 - Cha Junhwan (Finlandia)
11. 226.44 - Sergei Voronov (SkAm)
12. 220.75 - Keegan Messing (Rostelecom)
13. 208.27 - Michal Brezina (U.S. Classic)

Junhwan has impressive consistency across his four events (the only one to have four events, as well), with only twenty points between his best and worst results.

Michal has fifty points separating his best and worst results, though in his favour one must note that he has made huge improvements with each event, so his scores are trending in the right direction.

Keegan had two very high scores in a row and then his worst event in a long time.

Sergei’s scores are mostly on the lower range, though his best score is competitive with the other guys in the mid-to-high 250s.

 

[rachno2]

After watching France this week, sans comentary, and then watching Tara and Johnny roast Samarin tonight, my wife had a question I cant answer (not hard to do) . Why are the Russians now so weak in mens when they are so strong everywhere else? Where are the Kuliks and Yagudins? Obviously, the environment in Russia seems to be great for skaters right now....why not mens?

topic: I mean, they have an Ilia clone, but self-sabotage is a hell of a drug.

I hope Voronov's and Brezina's GPF qualifications here (and Messing’s first alternate placement) have a positive impact on skating. They show that if you stay in the game and keep working hard, you can always bounce back and improve, no matter your age or circumstances. In addition, they show (or at least they should show) federations that you don’t have to be an up-and-coming Plushenko or Yagudin (or Hanyu, if we're talking about great talents/competitors) to be worthy of support and encouragement. :agree:

I can hardly wait for the Nathan-Shoma match-up Assuming Hanyu withdraws, I don’t think the SP record is in danger of being broken, but a new FS record is ripe for the taking. :handw: and if Hanyu is in, it will only be more exciting!

 

[khtmyzr]

The situation in the top three is interesting.
Yuzuru had produced better results so far this season, but he is injured. If he doesn’t withdraw, he’ll still be coming in to the competition with less than ideal training time. Not a new situation for him, though.
Nathan has proved that he can manage the training/Yale situation to an extent and has done quite well so far. However, he has less time between the GP and the GPF to improve on his programs and I assume his exams are approaching, not sure how these would play a role and how much the programs can grow during this short period. But he still has yet to add a fourth (or fifth) quad so there’s a lot of room for his scores to grow.
I think Shoma might be in the best position to grab the gold here. He seems the most ready - conditioning and training wise. Plus, he has about a month after his last GP to work on whatever needs to be worked on for the final.

If Yuzuru withdraws (which might be better for my nerves... as much as I would love for him to be a super human and magically have his ankle fully healed in this short time frame), a Shoma-Nathan match up will indeed be interesting. And the battle for bronze - will it be the veterans or the up and coming?

 

[khtmyzr]

Yuzuru withdrew.
https://twitter.com/inthelopodcast/status/1067994476457512960?s=21

 

[Colonel Green]

Yuzuru withdrew.
https://twitter.com/inthelopodcast/status/1067994476457512960?s=21

Getting named as first alternate is the Canadian way for men's qualification this year, it seems.

Really disappointing for Hanyu that a perfect season remains elusive, but much better that he be sensible about his health rather than gratuitously aggravate his injury.

 

[Ichatdelune]

Thank goodness Yuzuru has decided to love his ankles, GPF would be much more exciting with him and the Pooh shower but his health is more important.

Now it's a really diverse field here, Japan, US, Czech Republic, Russia, Korea, and newly added Canada. I'll be up in the wee hours of the night again, but this isn't something I can miss.

 

[Colonel Green]

This must be one of the older fields in the history of the Grand Prix, between Sergei, Michal and Keegan.

 

[rachno2]

Yuzu expected, but still.....I guess this means I’m rooting for everybody equally. The battle for gold and bronze is going to be a lot of fun to watch.

My 1/2 young blood, 1/2 uncles prediction came true after all. The symmetry is pretty satisfying.

 

[jillredhand]

When I was initially shilling for Keegan to make the GPF, I didn't really have any podium ambitions for him. I just wanted to see him make the final. Now that he's in, though, and in this field actually has a shot at the podium ... I might find something new to lose my mind over. Go Keegan! Bronze seems most realistic, but if he does the best he can, silver is not impossible, though it'll depend on mistakes from Shoma or Nathan.

I'm excited for the Shoma-Nathan match up as well. Shoma more or less handed last year's GPF and Worlds wins to Nathan with a couple silly mistakes, it will be interesting to see how it falls out if both men are clean/cleanish.

 

[gsk8]

Poll has been stripped and reposted if you want to vote again.

 

[oatmella]

Nathan for gold!

It would be awesome if he can continue his GP winning streak - he has won his last 5 GP events.

 

[oatmella]

I'm excited for the Shoma-Nathan match up as well. Shoma more or less handed last year's GPF and Worlds wins to Nathan with a couple silly mistakes, it will be interesting to see how it falls out if both men are clean/cleanish.

I won’t really disagree about last year’s GPF, but I wouldn’t say he handed the worlds win to Nathan ... also he was injured.

Shoma-Nathan will be exciting for sure - they’ve been pretty even this season, score-wise.

 

[Arriba627]

I think it's going to be a fun competition. I really do think Keegan has a chance to get on the podium. He performed lights out at Sk Can when he had his home crowd behind him. This may be more of an international crowd, but I know there will be a lot of people cheering him on. My guess is that he never stopped practicing after his last GP event. Happy for him that he gets the opportunity to compete.