2018-19 U.S. Ladies' figure skating

[natsulian]

An almost clean Mariah earned nearly 68 points in the Short, so a clean Mariah will probably score between 69-71. Bradie's main trouble (besides under-rotations) was the Short during the Grand Prix season, but after replacing the 3Lz-3Lo with the 3Lz-3T, she's consistently scored above 70 points. A clean Bradie will earn 71-73. As for the Long, a nearly clean Mariah earned approximately 136, while a relatively clean Bradie scored between 135-137. Hopefully Mariah and Bradie peak at Worlds, they are HUNGRY.

Low-end
- Mariah BELL, 190-195
- Bradie TENNELL, 200-205

High-end:
- Mariah BELL, 200-205
- Bradie TENNELL, 205-212

Stats for Mariah:
- Avg. Short Program Score is 66.84
- Avg. Long Program Score is 126.91
- Avg. Total Score is 193.74
- Most missed jumps include 3Lz-3T, 3Lz-2T-2Lo, and 3Lz and sometimes has an edge call on the 3Lz and 3F

Stats for Bradie:
- Avg. Short Program Score is 67.55
- Avg. Long Program Score is 132.77
- Avg. Total Score is 200.31
- Most missed jumps include 3Lz-3Lo and 3Lz-3T and consistently called for under-rotations

 

[oatmella]

I like Mariah a lot, but I don’t really see her as hungry? Bradie seems to have more competitive drive.

 

[natsulian]

I like Mariah a lot, but I don’t really see her as hungry? Bradie seems to have more competitive drive.

Mariah might not seem "competitive" but she is very much so. Mariah's been driving the, "I want to peak at Worlds" narrative since the beginning of the season and said that each competition is just another step towards Worlds. In fact, Mariah said that she gained so much competitive drive after going to Worlds last season because she knew that if she was consistent and solid enough, she could make the Top 6. Now, a Top 6 finish in this competitive climate does not seem feasible unless the judges actually start rewarding her PCS wise, but she is very much a Top 10 skater.

To look at how far Mariah has come this season, just look at her past results:
- 2017/2019, lowest score was a 166.04 and highest was a 188.56 with placements ranging from 12th to 5th
- 2016/2017, lowest score was a 161.72 and highest was a 191.59 with placements ranging from 12th to 2nd

In fact, this season, Mariah's only fallen on the 3Lz-3T and 3Lz, but often times just doubles it (with a rare 3F fall at 4CC). Mariah's scores have ranged from 188.97 to 198.96 and placements ranged from 6th to 3rd in a much more competitive field. Mariah's made strides this season, and hopefully she'll only go up from here. The 2018/2019 season should be called the "Adjustment Season", especially for the American ladies.

Next season we have Megan, Bradie, Mariah, Ting, Hanna, Alysa, Ashley, and a slew of very talented Novice girls coming down the pipe.

 

[chuckm]

Why does she get to skate in the final group for the short program?

Bradie is currently #10 on the World Standings list. But #3 Osmond, #6 Mihara, #7 Higuchi and #8 Sotskova will not be at Worlds. Of those skating at Worlds, Bradie has the 6th highest World ranking, so she skates in the final SP group---quite a change from the Olympics, where she was first to skate!

In the next-to-last group are Tursynbaeva, Bell, Daleman, Samodurova, Lecavelier and Lim.

 

[readernick]

I think Bradie will likely score very well in the short program. She has been doing well in her short since she ditched the 3lz3lo. And, the program suits her so her PCS should be decent. Her score in the long will likely depend on if she does 3lz3lo or just does 3lz3T in the long. Her URs tend to happen after she messes up the 3lz3lo. If she goes clean on the 3lz3lo or gets rid of it I think she will do very well.

Mariah will need to have a clean 3-3 in the short to be competitive. Hopefully, she is able to land one. She doesn’t have any 3-3 in the long so her BV is a bit lower but if she goes clean she should score relatively well.

Wish the best to them and all the other women at Worlds.

 

[skylark]

I think Bradie will likely score very well in the short program. She has been doing well in her short since she ditched the 3lz3lo. And, the program suits her so her PCS should be decent. Her score in the long will likely depend on if she does 3lz3lo or just does 3lz3T in the long. Her URs tend to happen after she messes up the 3lz3lo. If she goes clean on the 3lz3lo or gets rid of it I think she will do very well.

Good analysis.

Should Bradie drop the 3L-3Lo at Worlds, if she hopes to maximize her/Mariah's chances at gaining 3 spots back? Or is the higher risk a better strategy in this case? Or should she keep on trying the 3L-3Lo at every competition regardless, in hopes that this will improve the jump's consistency?

Bradie is currently #10 on the World Standings list. But #3 Osmond, #6 Mihara, #7 Higuchi and #8 Sotskova will not be at Worlds. Of those skating at Worlds, Bradie has the 6th highest World ranking, so she skates in the final SP group---quite a change from the Olympics, where she was first to skate!

In the next-to-last group are Tursynbaeva, Bell, Daleman, Samodurova, Lecavelier and Lim.

There's some confusion between World Standings and World Ranking. WR counts only the current season's results (2018-19). As you said, World Standing, which counts the past 3 seasons, determines the starting group.

I'm only pointing this out because in the last week, I've been confused by the lists (in pre-game chat threads) of who will be skating in which group. Unless I'm mixed up, the poster used WS list, but called it the WR list. So if anyone else, like me, likes to scrutinize the lists and is a bit OCD hwell: ... the two lists are different. Links to both lists are in lower right hand corner of the main Forum page.

 

[Koatterce]

Good analysis.

Should Bradie drop the 3L-3Lo at Worlds, if she hopes to maximize her/Mariah's chances at gaining 3 spots back? Or is the higher risk a better strategy in this case? Or should she keep on trying the 3L-3Lo at every competition regardless, in hopes that this will improve the jump's consistency?




There's some confusion between World Standings and World Ranking. WR counts only the current season's results (2018-19). As you said, World Standing, which counts the past 3 seasons, determines the starting group.

I'm only pointing this out because in the last week, I've been confused by the lists (in pre-game chat threads) of who will be skating in which group. Unless I'm mixed up, the poster used WS list, but called it the WR list. So if anyone else, like me, likes to scrutinize the lists and is a bit OCD hwell: ... the two lists are different. Links to both lists are in lower right hand corner of the main Forum page.

I fixed it

I usually call the WR list the Season Ranking list so that didn't cross my mind aha

 

[DenissVFan]

A pity that no American skaters are at the Universiade.

 

[halulupu]

She should keep 3lz3l and go for bronze! Its probably her last chance so why not risk it? 5thish or 8th-ish no real difference

 

[alinaharry]

I think it depends on what Bradie wants. If she wants to use that combo in the future the only way to get it is to keep practicing. If she wants to win, she probably needs to drop it. Loop combos are very hard and the biggest thing is she doesn't have the PCS to boost the score when she pops or falls to keep her score up.

 

[skylark]

I fixed it

I usually call the WR list the Season Ranking list so that didn't cross my mind aha

Oh, cool! This was the first time I'd paid attention to those details. I thumbsed-up your posts in the other threads, but I'll say here ... so much for posting those lists!

 

[skylark]

She should keep 3lz3l and go for bronze! Its probably her last chance so why not risk it? 5thish or 8th-ish no real difference

It may or may not be her last chance, but you make a good point about making a push to go for the bronze. I was thinking about Jason Brown, who has always opted to go for what he knew he could do well, at Worlds, because of wanting to secure 3 spots for US men. That was his thinking in the past, but that may or may not change this time. With Nathan and Vincent as two highly-ranked teammates, he may choose another path.

 

[halulupu]

The 3 spot are very unlikely anyway. And I am pretty sure the us federation is the first one to drop her, if a more ice princess like lady/girl is emerging.

 

[Sai Bon]

She should keep 3lz3l and go for bronze! Its probably her last chance so why not risk it? 5thish or 8th-ish no real difference

Why do you think it's her last chance?

 

[mrrice]

Why do you think it's her last chance?

Right.....She's still quite young.

 

[Amei]

Why do you think it's her last chance?

This is probably going to be the weakest field for Worlds for awhile; the Canadians are limping in a bit with no Katelyn and Gabby's not been competing all year (and lets face it Nationals was bad) and the Russians are in a shaky year with only Sofia S. being reliable - next year will be the 3A in Seniors and if they do as they have done this year all 3 would be at Worlds with higher tech content (unless Bradie is keeping triple axels and quads hidden) that would allow them mistakes and still able to come out on top of Bradie.

 

[nipman]

This is probably going to be the weakest field for Worlds for awhile; the Canadians are limping in a bit with no Katelyn and Gabby's not been competing all year (and lets face it Nationals was bad) and the Russians are in a shaky year with only Sofia S. being reliable - next year will be the 3A in Seniors and if they do as they have done this year all 3 would be at Worlds with higher tech content (unless Bradie is keeping triple axels and quads hidden) that would allow them mistakes and still able to come out on top of Bradie.

Well, the ice is slippery, and Bradie at least has PCS advantage over the 3A, so it's too soon to write her off.

 

[Canadianskatingfan]

Well, the ice is slippery, and Bradie at least has PCS advantage over the 3A, so it's too soon to write her off.

Most certainly by next year Bradie will not have the PCs advantage over 3A. I expect scherbakova and kostornaya to both be +35 and +70 by next year and trusova to be +33 and +66 at least.

 

[Bluediamonds09]

Longing to see Hanna and Ting in practice, they’re the best junior team we’ve sent in ages! But both are inconsistent......

 

[alinaharry]

Well, the ice is slippery, and Bradie at least has PCS advantage over the 3A, so it's too soon to write her off.

Just for the heck of it: This season SP average PCS in international competitions

Bradie: 32.03

Alena Kostornaya: 31.23

I highly doubt there will be a PCS advantage because Bradie's two highest PCS scores this season came from competitions in the US, Skate America and 4CC. Sasha may be slightly behind in PCS but her technical content is so high I am not sure if it will matter.