- Joined
- Nov 19, 2007
No they won't send Gulyakova I don't think. If they were going to, they'd have sent her instead of Viktoria.
And yes, Yelim probably is safe, practically speaking. She had the highest score of all the 2nd place girls from the first event, and she had a higher score here. So she'll win the tiebreaker over other 2nd/2nd girls.
Think about it like this: at the 6th event, we have Tarusina and Tarakanova. If one of them wins and the other is 2nd (fairly likely) the winner will be in for sure, and the 2nd place girl will have the same points as Yelim. Then at the 7th event, Trusova should win and then Kanysheva can get 2nd. So we'll have three girls with 2nd/2nd (Yelim, Tarakanova/Tarusina and Kanysheva). Two of them will get in. To beat Yelim in the tiebreaker, Kanysheva needs 196.40, Tarakanova needs 197.55, and Tarusina needs 201.56. Kanysheva could maybe do that. But, Anna Tarusina can't do that, so she'd need to win. But if she wins, then Tarakanova needs to get 197. That's possible for her maybe, but not for Tarusina, so if she gets that she'll win and then Tarusina will still miss out.
So for Yelim to miss, Tarusina needs to win next week with Tarakanova 2nd with a score of at least 197.55. Then Kanysheva also needs to get 2nd with over 196.40. It's possiblr, I guess, but pretty unlikely - to the point that I'm comfortable saying Yelim is likely in.
Thank you for the detailed response!