I don't envy whoever has to decide which woman to send to senior worlds. Unless Gabby has 2 perfect skates and/or a runaway victory, she's a risky pick, but no other skater has the technical necessary to place top 10 (if only Aurora Cotop could be injury free, she'd be the next 'big thing'). At least with men we have a bit of depth with Keegan, Nam, and potentially Roman throwing their hats in.
2019-20 Canadian Figure Skating
- Thread starter Colonel Green
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I don't envy whoever has to decide which woman to send to senior worlds. Unless Gabby has 2 perfect skates and/or a runaway victory, she's a risky pick, but no other skater has the technical necessary to place top 10 (if only Aurora Cotop could be injury free, she'd be the next 'big thing'). At least with men we have a bit of depth with Keegan, Nam, and potentially Roman throwing their hats in.
How do you know? Is there some qualification criteria posted somewhere? What if Makita & Gunara defeat Natalie & Bruce at the Youth Olympics? Do you still think D&A would certainly be going? The four top teams from SC Challenge currently have an argument based on the events held thus far this season. Maybe it all works out nice & neat and figureoutable. And maybe it gets more complicated rather than less.
I think the Canadian champion will be sent, especially if it's Gabby. There is always 4CC for a second competition to help with the decision if it's needed.
Canada has two women's spots at Worlds.
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Canada has two ladies' spots at Worlds. Daleman will have one of those, as long as she's physically able/wants to go. The other is presumably down to nationals and maybe Four Continents results.
Miku & Tyler placing ahead of Natalie & Bruce at the YOG would be a big feather in their cap and would be a strong argument for them to get the third berth, but it wouldn't alter my belief that Natalie & Bruce are going. It's clear at this point that Skate Canada and the domestic judges consider Natalie & Bruce Canada's #1 junior team (just look at how high they were scored at Challenge), and their silver medal from the JGP is a reputation point in their favour that none of our other teams have. Unless they're injured, they're going to Junior Worlds.
Emmy & Aissa's season has unfortunately given them an appearance of unreliability, so they need to be rock-solid at junior nationals to have a chance of being sent.
Doesn't make a difference, really. Unless Gabby's had a massive turnaround or another lady jumps out of the woodwork, we've got no-one who's going to manage top 10
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I think Natalie & Bruce and Miku & Tyler are locks for the Junior Worlds, and whoever is national champion will get the final spot. While I do agree domestic judges and Skate Canada believe that Natalie & Bruce are the #1 team, international scoring is too close and any of these teams can win.
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I don't think Miku and Tyler are locks. They lost to Bashynska/Beaumont by over 7 points at Challenge, which will be the most recent head to head of all four teams. They got the 2nd YOG spot because they had a slightly higher best JGP score and because Ba/Be don't have Canadian citizenship. What if Emmy and Aissa win at Nats, with Nadiia and Peter just behind with strong skates, and Mika and Tyler are not as strong at YOG, then what?
They've had a good season and I think they have a good chance, but locks for JW? Not imo.
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While it's unlikely to be a decisive factor by itself, the other weak point for Miku & Tyler if there's any ambiguity in the process of making assignments is that their coaches simply don't have the same kind of muscle that their rivals' coaches do.
I don't see anything wrong with guestimating where these teams might land based on past performances, but I also just don't see the track record that really merits calling one team a lock over another. (Unless, as I've said before, SC decides to use the head-to-head result at SC Challenge for all three placements, which would remove the need to speculate and any attempt to compare national versus international results). This being junior dance and considering how each of these teams have performed over the past couple seasons, I just think odds are pretty good that it should come down to performances. Usually someone is not perfect and none of these teams are getting slammed internationally this season. All four demonstrated the ability to compete for the podium on the JGP.
Not all JGP events are of equal depth. Twice in the last two years I've seen Canadian junior teams medal and not make the jr. world team, while teams that had not medaled on the JGP earned their way to Junior Worlds. And at least twice over the last three years I've seen Canadian junior teams win silver at SC Challenge and not make the podium at Nationals or the junior world team.
Fortunately, this year there are three berths so that really improves everyone's chances. And it is good that there are three berths because there are at least four teams that could do quite a nice job, IMO.
D'A&W are a nice team. They have some lovely qualities and have worked hard to improve over the last several seasons. Upon occasion they bring in a protocol sheet that leads one to think they may have a higher ceiling than the other 3 teams, but then, not infrequently, they make a glaring error that costs points. I like them. I think they have an excellent chance of making the team if they avoid a big miss. But they sometimes make them. (I thought they were overscored in their RD at SC Challenge, as those twizzles were off. OTOH, they skated their FD very nicely there, and that is the dance they have been losing ground on this season so it was good to see that improvement there). They haven't gone up against any of these other teams internationally this season.
Oh, I should add that it's not out of the question that they could win the Youth Olympics. None of the JGPF finalists are on the lists, I don't think. There are several talented up & coming teams, including both D'A&W and Makita & Gunara, Wolfkostin & Chen, Yoshida & Nishiyama, and Tyutyunina & Shustitskyi--who are probably the favorites as 1st alternates for the JGPF but who split dances with D'A&W in their first head-to-head.
Not all JGP events are of equal depth. Twice in the last two years I've seen Canadian junior teams medal and not make the jr. world team, while teams that had not medaled on the JGP earned their way to Junior Worlds. And at least twice over the last three years I've seen Canadian junior teams win silver at SC Challenge and not make the podium at Nationals or the junior world team.
Fortunately, this year there are three berths so that really improves everyone's chances. And it is good that there are three berths because there are at least four teams that could do quite a nice job, IMO.
D'A&W are a nice team. They have some lovely qualities and have worked hard to improve over the last several seasons. Upon occasion they bring in a protocol sheet that leads one to think they may have a higher ceiling than the other 3 teams, but then, not infrequently, they make a glaring error that costs points. I like them. I think they have an excellent chance of making the team if they avoid a big miss. But they sometimes make them. (I thought they were overscored in their RD at SC Challenge, as those twizzles were off. OTOH, they skated their FD very nicely there, and that is the dance they have been losing ground on this season so it was good to see that improvement there). They haven't gone up against any of these other teams internationally this season.
Oh, I should add that it's not out of the question that they could win the Youth Olympics. None of the JGPF finalists are on the lists, I don't think. There are several talented up & coming teams, including both D'A&W and Makita & Gunara, Wolfkostin & Chen, Yoshida & Nishiyama, and Tyutyunina & Shustitskyi--who are probably the favorites as 1st alternates for the JGPF but who split dances with D'A&W in their first head-to-head.
topic: Happy new year fellow Canadian skating lovers! Have a wonderful, healthy 2020! Good luck to our skaters in the new year!- Joined
- Feb 24, 2012
Doesn't make a difference, really. Unless Gabby's had a massive turnaround or another lady jumps out of the woodwork, we've got no-one who's going to manage top 10
Or for t hat matter no one who might make the free skate now that would be disastrous! Does anyone have updates on Gabby? Is she healthy - emotionally and physically? Is she more trained? She seemed winded at her Grand Prix event before pulling out of the second one.
Gosh poor Canada. Their ladies are struggling worse than ever. In men Keegan is still recovering from the loss of his brother and Nam has yet to regain all of his quads (sal and toe) despite showing such promise years ago Mind you he has grown a lot. The injury to the Danadians may cost Canada three spots in dance. Pairs has nto had huge succes though there is hope with KMT and MM along with Charile and Lubov but the others - yuck!
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You're aware that you can follow her social media yourself, no?
Nam has been having a very strong and consistent season so far, his best in at least four years. Keegan's Grand Prix events weren't quite what he would have wanted, but he had one great or pretty good program at each.
We had a team make the Final and another team win a Grand Prix medal in their debut season, and Justine & Mark won a Challenger medal. This has been a pretty good season for the pairs so far.
Other than ladies, which has been undeniably a struggle, the first half of the season was very good for Canadian skaters, yet somehow you're still convinced things are terrible.
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But I don't really get an idea how Gabby is doing skating wise as to being ready from her social media accounts. Nam has been strong comparatively but certainly not what was expected as I believe he was a former junior world champ. He has not added to his arsenal big tricks or m uch speed granted he grew a lot.We'll see if the home advantage will allow GP win a bronze in dance at worlds. Or if one fo the pairs teams can sneak in for a bronze.
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Wasn't Nam the alternate for the Mens GP final? He had decent results this GP season.
Nam has had a very good season. My best wishes for him at Nationals. The potential men's results are so unpredictable. Mostly I just hope to see the guys skate well because there is no stretching one berth at Worlds into more so I would really just like to see them proud of how they compete. The irony is that there are several guys capable of finishing in the top ten with only the one spot and this is not true in the ladies' event where there are two berths; but it is the way things play out sometimes with this qualification system and the men's field being so volatile.
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Early review of Canada's potential for 2021 world team.
Pairs. This could be a wild card. Y ou have Moores-Tower and Marinaro working on consistency and the triple twist (GOE's) as well as upping the pcs. With the downfall or struggles of T and M; injuries to the world bronze medallists from RUssia and trouble with James and Cipres as well as the potential to be at the second Chinese team (not to mention they seem to consistently beat the Koreans, Americans and Italians) three spots is not impossible when you factor in the new and developing'improving - Charlie and L ubov who are again a wild card great potential - even better if they could solve the sbs. If MT M could get fourth or even fifth which is plausible looking at the GPF results it is within range of Charlie and Lubov to get 8 th or 9th. I think the key teams to watch will be the Americans. They need to beat one or both of the American teams
Men= Either Nam or Messing are capable of top ten as backed by the GP results. Messing has the better chance for scoring including a bronze though that seems lost now with SHoma righting himself. Nam has been the better competitor this season but has been slow to improve from juniors both jumps content and pcs - though the jumps may be d ue to incredible/large growth. Two spots though is very reasonable
Dance Assuming GP are fourth or 5th Canada has a very good shot of three spots if the Danadians can compete. If they can't compete it is game over for Canada for three spots.
Ladies - Gabby needs to get in the top 12. the ladies though have two spots look very scarey. There was some hope with Aurora but injury seems to have taken that away. It is not impossible both Canadian ladies at world not make the fs.
I am not a mathetmatician but ifCanada doesn't get it together they might not make the WTT finals
Pairs. This could be a wild card. Y ou have Moores-Tower and Marinaro working on consistency and the triple twist (GOE's) as well as upping the pcs. With the downfall or struggles of T and M; injuries to the world bronze medallists from RUssia and trouble with James and Cipres as well as the potential to be at the second Chinese team (not to mention they seem to consistently beat the Koreans, Americans and Italians) three spots is not impossible when you factor in the new and developing'improving - Charlie and L ubov who are again a wild card great potential - even better if they could solve the sbs. If MT M could get fourth or even fifth which is plausible looking at the GPF results it is within range of Charlie and Lubov to get 8 th or 9th. I think the key teams to watch will be the Americans. They need to beat one or both of the American teams
Men= Either Nam or Messing are capable of top ten as backed by the GP results. Messing has the better chance for scoring including a bronze though that seems lost now with SHoma righting himself. Nam has been the better competitor this season but has been slow to improve from juniors both jumps content and pcs - though the jumps may be d ue to incredible/large growth. Two spots though is very reasonable
Dance Assuming GP are fourth or 5th Canada has a very good shot of three spots if the Danadians can compete. If they can't compete it is game over for Canada for three spots.
Ladies - Gabby needs to get in the top 12. the ladies though have two spots look very scarey. There was some hope with Aurora but injury seems to have taken that away. It is not impossible both Canadian ladies at world not make the fs.
I am not a mathetmatician but ifCanada doesn't get it together they might not make the WTT finals
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I can guarantee we won't make the World Team Trophy, because there is no World Team Trophy this season. That only happens every other year.
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Holy heck, I didn't realize he has the 6th best total this season! He has a shot to medal at 4CC! It's sad that only 1 man can go to Worlds, but should be a good battle at Nats.
