2019 Worlds: Ladies' Pregame Chat

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We are all aware of Rika’s SP struggles this season. What she has proven time and time again is that it doesn’t matter how far behind she is when she nails that free.

Really nasty to see people actively rooting against skaters (Rika, Alina, whoever). I don’t get it.

You meant me as actively rooting against Rika, really?

I am a bit tired of Rika's glorification here, yes it's true. At the same time, last year when she could not show anything against Russian juniors I said that she was capable of being the top Japanese lady as the full package with 3A.

She has not skated 2 clean programs with the planned content yet. And what happened in Hague just shows that all those "long analyses" that one can find in this thread with just one idea: to make everyone believe that Rika's winning the gold is almost certain may be a bit premature.

 

[Fluture]

You meant me as actively rooting against Rika, really?

I am a bit tired of Rika's glorification here, yes it's true. At the same time, last year when she could not show anything against Russian juniors I said that she was capable of being the top Japanese lady as the full package with 3A.

She has not skated 2 clean programs with the planned content yet. And what happened in Hague just shows that all those "long analyses" that one can find in this thread with just one idea: to make everyone believe that Rika's winning the gold is almost certain may be a bit premature.

No one thinks that her winning the gold is certain. Mostly it‘s been said that IF she lands her planned content, or at least most of it, she will win. There are lots of talented skaters at Worlds, so if Rika doesn‘t deliver, of course someone else will take the gold. But that‘s common sense. Fact is, Rika has not lost this season. Other favorites for the title have. Does that mean she‘s sure to win? No, not at all. But given her difficult technical content and rising PCS, she has a great chance. It will depend on her to deliver, especially in the SP. I think everyone who has followed skating this season is aware of the fact that Rika‘s SP is her weakness and she won‘t be guaranteed a victory but will rather have to fight very hard in the FS and show an exceptional program if she pops the 3A to a single or messes up spins like she did today.

 

[MaHa75]

...and for Estonia Eva-Lotta Kiibus!

 

[[email protected]]

I won't argue with you with all the rationale and supporting evidence. Just clicked 3 pages ago and saw: "At this competition Zagitova will definitely be the under dog". Well, it kind of contradicts that "no one thinks that her winning the gold is certain". Underdogs win sometimes but really? There is no "fact" that "Rika has not lost this season". She lost to Kaori fair and square. And internationally vs. domestic is just semantics because there were no outcries that Kaori's gold was unfair (unlike what we had at Cup of Russia yesterday). Hence, Rika does not always win. Medvedeva's record is what? 18 straight wins, internationally and domestically combined.

 

[readernick]

No one thinks that her winning the gold is certain. Mostly it‘s been said that IF she lands her planned content, or at least most of it, she will win. There are lots of talented skaters at Worlds, so if Rika doesn‘t deliver, of course someone else will take the gold. But that‘s common sense. Fact is, Rika has not lost this season. Other favorites for the title have. Does that mean she‘s sure to win? No, not at all. But given her difficult technical content and rising PCS, she has a great chance. It will depend on her to deliver, especially in the SP. I think everyone who has followed skating this season is aware of the fact that Rika‘s SP is her weakness and she won‘t be guaranteed a victory but will rather have to fight very hard in the FS and show an exceptional program if she pops the 3A to a single or messes up spins like she did today.

Yes, obviously. That is what people mean. Rika is not assured a win. No one thinks that. Some people are just so nationalistic that they don’t like any skater who isn’t from their country of orgin and thus have to put down any skaters they see as a threat and can’t handle praise for skaters from other countries. I think all I said before was that the competition is really down to Rika’s ability vs Rika’s nerves. No one will beat a clean Rika they just don’t have the BV or the PCS advantage to do so. It is math. That does not mean she can’t be beaten. She can be because she is known to give in to nerves at stressful times. ( this year has been better but she still has work to do)

About the competition today, Rika just got new skates and has not been practicing the 3A since beginning to use her new skates. I think the 2A was planned she does not want to get injured prior to worlds. PCS at SB competitions are strange. Satoko also got very low PCS at a recent Senior B competition. This means nothing for the WC. The only worrying thing about the competition today was her botched spin. That particular spin is Rika’s weak point. She consistently gets level 4’s and high GOE on all other elements. I hope she works on it prior to worlds. She doesn’t want to lose 3-4 points on a botched spin at worlds.

 

[rikaquegira]

I won't argue with you with all the rationale and supporting evidence. Just clicked 3 pages ago and saw: "At this competition Zagitova will definitely be the under dog". Well, it kind of contradicts that "no one thinks that her winning the gold is certain". Underdogs win sometimes but really? There is no "fact" that "Rika has not lost this season". She lost to Kaori fair and square. And internationally vs. domestic is just semantics because there were no outcries that Kaori's gold was unfair (unlike what we had at Cup of Russia yesterday). Hence, Rika does not always win. Medvedeva's record is what? 18 straight wins, internationally and domestically combined.

So you have a problem with people saying Rika is unbeatable because apparently she isn’t, but you don’t have a problem if someone says Alina is still the top Lady even though she’s been having a shaky season?

Look, we all want to believe our faves will skate lights out and win again and again. But it is a fact that Rika, albeit not skating perfectly clean every time, has been doing enough to always come up on top in the end. Except for that one time she lost to Kaori at Nationals.

No one is saying Rika is as consistent as Medvedeva at her peak, she doesn’t always skates clean and also, they have pretty different layouts... I don’t think this comparison should even be made. No need to worry, Medvedeva will remain the most consistent lady in history for... well, god knows how long!

Rika is a talented skater who has shown time and time again that she’s not that flopping lady from Juniors anymore. The fact she was beaten by Amber Glenn at a SP at Challenge Cup is no big deal. Smart skaters focus on the big picture, no need for being number one 100% of the time. Also, I don’t know if you know this but Rika continues on her struggle for the right boots. She’s skating with a new pair at Challenge Cup because she’s trying to break in backup pairs for the future. That’s why she wasn’t jumping 3As up until the 6min warmup. So it’s understandable she missed it in the program. Better miss it at the Challenge Cup than at Worlds.

Anyway, I’m talking too much.
We can argue all we want but we have no way of knowing who will actually win. We can say, from statistics, from previous performances, who has a higher probability of winning. From that, I would say it is looking better for Rika than for Alina. Of course if Alina wins it will be no surprise (at least to me). She’s been looking vulnerable but she’s still a strong skater and one of the favorites. I think the fact of placing “low” at Nationals and “losing” Europeans to newcomer Sofia Samodurova hurt her reputation of “reliable and consistent” skater but at her best she can rack up the points. And of course, so does Rika.

 

[malya]

Why complain that people don't apply 'russian lady mentality' to Rika?

Maybe this mentality is just toxic and doesn't need to be applied to any skater even if it's common in russian media (and in the Russian Ladies thread). I'm happy to read that at least Rika is not immediatly talked down after a subpar performance without 3A and *gasp* an UR. She can still do better at worlds and even without she is a medal contender.

 

[Colonel Green]

Rika is a dramatic sort of frontrunner, in that she always wins but she always makes just enough mistakes to keep you guessing until the end.

 

[ladyjane]

We are all aware of Rika’s SP struggles this season. What she has proven time and time again is that it doesn’t matter how far behind she is when she nails that free.

Really nasty to see people actively rooting against skaters (Rika, Alina, whoever). I don’t get it.

I'm with you. Don't get it either. I wish all skaters to do well. And yes, I might prefer one to the other. Doesn't take away my happiness for a skater I don't really like but who did well. Good for her/him! Like Samarin at Europeans. He's not my favourite skater, but he did well. Congrats to him. I admire that. No need to bash on anyone. They're all doing their best, nobody falters on purpose (if you read some posts you might actually think some skaters have a bad skate, fall or injure themselves on purpose just to lose. Ehh...). I usually feel sorry for a skater who has a bad outing. Rooting against a skater really is obnoxious.

 

[Osmond4gold]

I don't have any skin in the game, but when was Osmond ever considered iconic?

We all have a right to our opinions and many are relieved she is not competing this year, given the new found emphasis on the need for quality, or GOE. After her life changing injury, to winning more World and Olympic podiums than any other women's skater of the past quad, "Iconic" she will continue to be.

 

[Fluture]

I won't argue with you with all the rationale and supporting evidence. Just clicked 3 pages ago and saw: "At this competition Zagitova will definitely be the under dog". Well, it kind of contradicts that "no one thinks that her winning the gold is certain". Underdogs win sometimes but really? There is no "fact" that "Rika has not lost this season". She lost to Kaori fair and square. And internationally vs. domestic is just semantics because there were no outcries that Kaori's gold was unfair (unlike what we had at Cup of Russia yesterday). Hence, Rika does not always win. Medvedeva's record is what? 18 straight wins, internationally and domestically combined.

Sorry, but what does Medvedeva‘s record have anything to do with Rika? Or any skater for that matter? Does it make them somehow less worth if they don‘t win all the time?

About Rika’s record this season: I give you that, I was thinking about international competitions and forgot Nationals. I made a mistake. So, yes, Rika has lost a competition this season and it was fair and square like you said. (I don‘t think that whether there‘s an outcry or not necessarily defines if a result of a competition was fair or not, though but that‘s not the point of discussion right now)

I still don‘t get which point you‘re trying to make, exactly. In fact, it doesn‘t matter how much Rika‘s won or not because at Worlds, it will be a blank slate, she will have to perform at her best and the past wins won‘t help her. But given what she‘s shown this season, she is in great shape and a strong contender for the gold medal, probably even the strongest we have seen this season. That‘s all people say. It doesn‘t mean she‘s guaranteed a win. There‘s still Alina, Kaori and lots of other talented ladies, so if Rika doesn‘t do her absolute best, someone else will take the gold.

If it‘s about the “Alina will be the underdog“ comment. Well, it came from an Alina fan, I think, so you shouldn‘t have to worry too much. What was actually meant, I believe, was that considering Rika’s only won gold in international (!) competitions this year, pressure will not be solely on Alina. Last year, she was the one who was expected to win, coming just from an Olympic victory. This year she will enter as the skater who hasn’t had the best results of all skaters this season (medals wise) She is obviously still more than in contention for that gold and has also great results. But expectations wise (especially from what the media‘s going to portray), it will be a different situation than last year. What‘s so bad about that, though? Alina‘s still very much capable of winning. She has two of the most difficult programs with high BV and lots of transitions. If she manages to pull them off, she will compete for the gold and have a great chance to win. I think most people are aware of that, even if they don’t like to admit it. Isn‘t that enough? I don‘t think it‘s bad to say: “Rika seems to be the strongest bet to win right now but there are others who are totally capable of taking the gold away from her“. I, for that matter, have a feeling it will be close and we will see an exciting battle.

 

[ankifeather]

We all have a right to our opinions and many are relieved she is not competing this year, given the new found emphasis on the need for quality, or GOE. After her life changing injury, to winning more World and Olympic podiums than any other skater of the past quad, "Iconic" she is and will continue to be.

If you are talking about ladies only, Evgenia won the same amount of World and Olympic podiums, but with better placements (and injury too). If you talking about all skaters in the past quad, I can already think of 6 other singles & couples that have the same or more podium finishes than Kaetlyn off the top of my head with better placements than her.

She is iconic for being the only North America World Champion after a ten year draught for North America ladies (the last one in 2006).

 

[Spirals for Miles]

...and for Estonia Eva-Lotta Kiibus!

Yay! I like Eva-Lotta a lot, and I'm excited we'll see her here!

 

[Skater Boy]

Rika is not a sure thing but probably the leading contender. I think Kaori or Satoko could beat her if they are clean. I am not very confident in Alina right now and I think skaters would have to make a mistake for Sofia to take the title. I missed it but is Carolina Kostner out of worlds? I am curious who will be on the Russian team;it's odd we talk about howstrong they are yet they also in a way they are weak with no real front runner for gold - it would h ave been Alina but her last few events have been getting worse.

Kaetlyn Osmond may have missed her opportunity to win a surprise World gold again.

 

[Ophelia]

Is any contender a "sure thing"?

Rika is the one to beat because if she hits her layout (or perhaps even misses one 3A), she wins, period, even if the other skaters go clean.

Everyone else here is just squabbling over her probability of going near-clean, which has nothing to do with her invincibility. Invincibility should be measured against execution itself and not probability of execution, else we will be pulling numbers out of thin air and assigning them probability percentages.

It doesn't matter if Rika misses every single jump in her LP tomorrow. She will still certainly win gold if she hits her jumps at Worlds.

 

[jenm]

Rika is losing to Amber Glenn in Hague after SP. No 3A and UR on 3T. She might not be as invincible as some people want her to be. Definitely nothing like Med and Zag in 2016-2018.

Evgenia lost to Elena R. once and Alina faltered hard at Worlds. They also didn't have a total winning steak. AND the competition is not over yet. We'll see in the free.

 

[[email protected]]

I still don‘t get which point you‘re trying to make, exactly.

The point I am trying to make is that with all due respect I don't see either Rika's results or her skating worth the assertions that she is the undoubtful favorite in the coming WC while Alina is an underdog. You and others may call it nationalism or patriotism like some already did. I could have replied that those who say that are just russophobic. Both is futile. In other words my point is that both Rika and Alina have similar chances.

I, for that matter, have a feeling it will be close and we will see an exciting battle.

Exactly.

 

[[email protected]]

Evgenia lost to Elena R. once and Alina faltered hard at Worlds. They also didn't have a total winning steak. AND the competition is not over yet. We'll see in the free.

The streak that I mentioned happened between November 2015 (Medvedeva lost to Radionova) and March 2018 (Zagitova's worlds meltdown).

 

[TeeSaurus]

Looks like Sophia Schaller just hit the minimum FP TES scoring 49.02 TES in the Challenge Cup.
Was nice to see her excitement about her score. ☺

 

[norwegianfairytale]

Edit, wrong thread.