Cliff's Notes anyone? :-)

[Oldcasualfan]

I'm an old, old (still look back fondly on my Dorothy Hamill inspired haircut in the 4th grade) very casual fan of figure skating. I used to keep up with things but I've kind of tuned out since Sochi ... I am excited for these Olympics though and was wondering if anyone would indulge an old lady and give me the Cliff's Notes for viewing: the favorites, the dark horses, the fan faves, et cetera? Are Volosozhar and Trankov done for good? How good is Savchenko's new partner? Do they have a chance? Can Chen really beat Hanyu? What has happened to Fernandez? Why did Sports Illustrated leave Sui and Han off their list of predicted medalists? Are Virtue and Moir really going to win? So many questions!!! Thanks in advance to anyone who wants to play and sorry if I triggered anyone My intentions are only good.

 

[pearly]

Oh gosh, where does one begin

The favorites - or better said skaters to watch:

Ladies: Evgenia Medvedeva, Alina Zagitova, Kaetlyn Osmond, Gabby Daleman, Carolina Kostner, Satoko Miyahara, Kaori Sakamoto, Bradie Tennel.
Dance: Virtue/Moir, Papadakis/Cizeron, all three American pairs, other two Canadian pairs, Bobrova/Soloviev, Cappelini/Lanotte.
Pairs: Savchenko/Massot, Sui/Han, Tarasova/Morozov, James/Cipres, Duahmel/Radford.
Men: Yuzuru Hanyu, Nathan Chen, Javier Fernandes, Shoma Uno, Boyang Jin, Kolyada.

Dark horse: watch for Mirai Nagasu's triple Axel. She's landed it internationally.

Are Volosozhar and Trankov done for good?

Haven't seen an official announcement, but they are not competing.

How good is Savchenko's new partner? Do they have a chance?

Good. Some back issues. Maybe not as good as Robin technically, but good. They might have a chance.

Can Chen really beat Hanyu?

If Hanyu is unclean (and he has been, plus he's injured and we haven't seen him compete since November), yet. He's done it before.

What has happened to Fernandez?

Messy skates. Some people love his free (I do!), some not so much.

Why did Sports Illustrated leave Sui and Han off their list of predicted medalists?

Anyone who leaves them out of any medal predictions does not know what they are talking about.

Are Virtue and Moir really going to win?

Maybe. It's very, very close and so far has gone to the advantage of the French.

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

In addition to pearly’s well informed post which I’m not worthy I’ll add a few minor points.

There is a sweet Russian girl named Maria Sotskova who tanos ever jump and people hate it but I love it and her. She has an old school kind of simplistic style and feel to her programs. You should love her as much as I do and I do think she has an outside shot at the podium due to her consistency the last few years and few high level medals. Unfortunately her last two events were among the most shaky I’ve e we seen her.

I think Nathan will win the Gold but if Nathan, Yuzu, Shomo, or Boyang win it I’ll be equally happy. These dudes rock.

Pairs and Ice Dance have not really inspired me much this year. I can’t offer anything on that.

 

[pearly]

Thank you Sam-Skwantch

And yes to Sotskova. I do hate her Tanos, but her skating is beautiful.

 

[Spirals for Miles]

In addition to pearly’s well informed post which I’m not worthy I’ll add a few minor points.

There is a sweet Russian girl named Maria Sotskova who tanos ever jump and people hate it but I love it and her. She has an old school kind of simplistic style and feel to her programs. You should love her as much as I do and I do think she has an outside shot at the podium due to her consistency the last few years and few high level medals. Unfortunately her last two events were among the most shaky I’ve e we seen her.

I think Nathan will win the Gold but if Nathan, Yuzu, Shomo, or Boyang win it I’ll be equally happy. These dudes rock. I

Pairs and Ice Dance have not really inspired me much this year. I can’t offer anything on that.

I love Masha too!
And love your optimism for Nathan's chances and your favorite men

the only pairs I've really loved this year are S/H and then P/K (who are juniors, lol)
and the only dance team I've ever liked are the ShibSibs (and Davis/Varlamov because Eteri)

 

[SnowWhite]

This is my breakdown of who I think the most likely medalists are for each discipline. Personal opinion only of course.

Ladies

Gold - a very close race between Evgenia Medvedeva and Alina Zagitova of Russia. Silver is very likely to go to the one who doesn't get the gold.

Bronze - a pretty open race. I'd say Carolina Kostner and Kaetlyn Osmond are the most likely because they get very high GOE and PCS, so they are a little bit more able to absorb a small mistake or two than the other bronze contenders, although neither is super consistent. Those would be Maria Sotskova from Russia, Kaori Sakamoto and Satoko Miyahara from Japan, and Gabrielle Daleman from Canada.

As for fan faves outside of those, I'm hoping that Dabin Choi will skate well at her home Olympics (she's the stronger of the two South Korean women competing) and a lot of people enjoy Giada Russo, a young Italian women who got their 2nd spot.

Men

Gold - pretty open. The men are pretty volatile with all the quads, and when you add in injuries, it's very unpredictable. I'd say that Shoma Uno (Japan) and Nathan Chen (USA) are the most likely. Boyang Jin (China) and Javier Fernandez (Spain) are also in the mix. With Yuzuru Hanyu, it's just hard to say because of his ankle injury. But, he is able to peak quickly and Brian said all his quads but the 4Lz are ready, so he's definitely also in it.

Other dark horse medal contenders, other than the five I already mentioned would be Mikhail Kolyada (Russia) and possibly Dmitri Aliev (Russia) and Patrick Chan. Side note, Dmitri has such a gorgeous long program.

Outside of the top guys, Adam Rippon (USA) has a beautiful long program, there is a good chance Keegan Messing (Canada) will do a backflip getting off the ice, Deniss Vasiljevs (Latvia) is coached by Stephane Lambiel and is quite nice to watch and Julian Yee is from Malaysia and is a lot of fun. I'm also enjoying Matteo Rizzo from Italy (he was skating in juniors earlier this season) and Jun Hwan Cha from South Korea is young and very talented. And of course Misha Ge (Uzbekistan) is the ultimate fan favourite.

Pairs

Gold - comes down to Sui/Han (China) and Savchenko/Massot (Germany). They would both have to mess up for someone else to get it in my opinion.

Bronze - there are several teams in the mix here, but I would say the most likely are Tarasova/Morozov (Russia) and Duhamel/Radford (Canada). The others would be James/Cipres (France) and Yu/Zhang (China). Zabiiako/Enbert (Russia) could be a dark horse.

Pairs is super deep right now, so there are a lot of great teams outside of those I mentioned. Alexandrovskaya/Windsor are a talented young team from Australia, which is pretty cool. The North Korean team is quite good (they trained in Montreal this summer with Duhamel/Radford's coach), Marchei/Hotarek from Italy are normally pretty fun, as are Astakhova/Rogonov (Russia), and I'm a fan of the youngest Canadian pairs team (Seguin/Bilodeau) and their programs.

Dance

Gold - definitely between Virtue/Moir (Canada) and Papadakis/Cizeron (France). It's very close - it'll come down to how they skate on the day.

Bronze - again many teams in the mix here. I'd give the slight edge to the Shibutanis and Hubbell/Donohue from the US. Other contenders are: Bobrova/Soloviev (Russia), Chock/Bates (USA), Weaver/Poje (Canada) and Capellini/Lanotte (Italy).

Other teams who are fun to watch for me would be Gilles/Poirier (Canada) and Muramoto/Reed (Japan) who have very enjoyable short dances and Zagorski/Guerreiro (Russia).

 

[Crossover]

the whole post

Great summary! Every Olympics I have to explain to my friends about who is who and who are favorites although most of them are only interested in ladies.

 

[Oldcasualfan]

See this is why I don't trust the mainstream media (lolol just a joke) for the scoop on the contenders! Thank you all very, very much for the information! It looks like there are some folks I need to check out on the youtubes before settling in and watching. I knew I could count on the good people here.

Just wondering why nobody commented on the team competition. It's still the red-headed stepchild of the olympics? I personally really enjoyed the team competition in 2014 but wasn't even aware that there was a world team competition outside of the olympics until I was doing some reading today. I know it's not steeped in tradition but it is really fun and exciting imo

 

[SnowWhite]

See this is why I don't trust the mainstream media (lolol just a joke) for the scoop on the contenders! Thank you all very, very much for the information! It looks like there are some folks I need to check out on the youtubes before settling in and watching. I knew I could count on the good people here.

Just wondering why nobody commented on the team competition. It's still the red-headed stepchild of the olympics? I personally really enjoyed the team competition in 2014 but wasn't even aware that there was a world team competition outside of the olympics until I was doing some reading today. I know it's not steeped in tradition but it is really fun and exciting imo

Gold should be a battle between Canada and OAR (Russia's team). Looks quite close. Then the USA is solid for bronze, especially with the top athletes from some of the other teams skipping the event. The most likely teams to join The top three in the free skate are Japan and Italy.

Reminder that the rules are each country is allowed to substitute a max of two disciplines after the SP, but they don't have to sub anyone.

The top skaters from Canada, OAR and the USA are doing the event. Other top skaters participating include Savchenko/Massot, Shoma Uno, James/Cipres, Yu/Zhang, Satoko Miyahara and Kaori Sakamoto, Capellini/Lanotte and likely Carolina Kostner.

All the skaters in the team event are also doing the individual except the Israeli lady, Aimee Buchanen.

 

[jcoates]

One point to note is the depth in all four disciplines could lead to some VERY well known skaters finishing at the bottom or outside of the top ten, even if they skate well. Including some skaters contending for the bronze.

As an example, Weaver and Poje could finish realistically between 4th-7th or 8th.

In the ladies event, if all the top non-Americans skate reasonably to spectacularly well, the US women’s best finish could be 9th.

A realistic top ten could be:
G - Zagitova
S - Medvedeva
B - Osmond
4. Miyahara
5. Kostner
6. Sotskova
7. Sakamoto
8. Daleman
9. Tennell
10. Nagasu

All events could be incredibly exciting and unpredictable.