Does anyone think Michelle has a chance?
- Thread starter cianni
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Especially the fans of a certain skater... 
she will go unnamed... 
chipso1 said:
Indeed. You have the teenybopper fans that are already proclaiming her the next National Champion. Not to mention thinking that "if she only skated clean, she's unbeatable" stuff.
And, coincidentally, a lot of MK fans also seem to think the same or similar things about their skater. :scratch:
The above goes for any other skater, but there are a lot more Kwan and Cohen fans (esp. Kwan fans) around everywhere.
But enough about this. Things will not change any time soon.
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Just to get back to this...I agree that she took the cautious approach in 98, but I disagree that there was no pressure. She was still a sentimental favorite to win, and everyone (myself included, admittedly) seemed to want it for her. When it didn't happen, everyone was heartbroken.
In '02 she took the cautious approach, AND fell. That just sealed it in for her, especially after Hughes' performance.
In 06 she CANNOT take the cautious approach. But at this point in time, I just can't see her pulling it off. Not with the level of talent that has emerged lately. And certainly not with a new judging system that she is unfamiliar with and that seemed to unnerve her at 05 Worlds.
ETA: I'd also be interested in looking at some of the other top contenders' chances at the OGM. I know the situation we have with MK, and have my own opinion. I wonder if others might be in a similar situation regarding nerves or pressure or being an underdog?
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- Joined
- Jul 11, 2003
Red Dog - How could you have missed Irina if you saw the competition in Nagano? Irina is one year older than Michelle and has been in every competition that MK has been in. She's not new to the game.
You seem to be putting in perceived emotions of MK for winning Olympic medals. Better to have silver than none.
As an ardent football fan, do you understand the 'bad' days as well as the 'good' days. Check out Bufallo Bills for three consecutive years in Super Bowl and no win yet they were still considered the 'best' team.
That's the way it is in Pigskin Town. Just like it is in Ice Town
Joe
You seem to be putting in perceived emotions of MK for winning Olympic medals. Better to have silver than none.
As an ardent football fan, do you understand the 'bad' days as well as the 'good' days. Check out Bufallo Bills for three consecutive years in Super Bowl and no win yet they were still considered the 'best' team.
That's the way it is in Pigskin Town. Just like it is in Ice Town
Joe
- Joined
- Jul 27, 2003
Honestly, I think there was LOADS of pressure on Michelle in Nagano. Tara was the reigning World Champion and certainly a favorite for gold, but after her superlative Nationals in Philadelphia Kwan was the one to beat. She had the weight of the world on her shoulders and you could clearly see that as she left the Olympic ice after her LP. She let it all out in the Kiss & Cry. To me, they seemed more like tears of relief....not tears of joy or elation. She faced the greatest pressure ever placed on her young shoulders and gave it her best.
I think Turino will be a bit different. Naturally, there will be pressure and expectations. These are the Olympic Games and she is Michelle Kwan. But, she isn't the frontrunner this time. Additionally, there isn't just one skater that she has to look out for. They will be coming from every direction this time. I think that will motivate Michelle to look inside and give it all one last time. She may not win, but I believe she will go out with a bang at these Olympic Games. I finally learned not to ever underestimate her in 2001 after she won her 4th World title. She has been challenged like never before....I fully believe she will respond with heart and vigor.
I think Turino will be a bit different. Naturally, there will be pressure and expectations. These are the Olympic Games and she is Michelle Kwan. But, she isn't the frontrunner this time. Additionally, there isn't just one skater that she has to look out for. They will be coming from every direction this time. I think that will motivate Michelle to look inside and give it all one last time. She may not win, but I believe she will go out with a bang at these Olympic Games. I finally learned not to ever underestimate her in 2001 after she won her 4th World title. She has been challenged like never before....I fully believe she will respond with heart and vigor.
BronzeisGolden, I think you have said it perfectly! :agree:
Of course she has a chance to win, but I am certainly not saying she is a favorite, because clearly she isn't. I do think though, as you said, that if she just goes out there and throws down one of her emotionally packed performances, she will be okay. She may not win, but I definitely think she could medal ... and how amazing would that be!
But I'm still not givng up on her for the gold! Ya just never know!!!
Of course she has a chance to win, but I am certainly not saying she is a favorite, because clearly she isn't. I do think though, as you said, that if she just goes out there and throws down one of her emotionally packed performances, she will be okay. She may not win, but I definitely think she could medal ... and how amazing would that be!
But I'm still not givng up on her for the gold! Ya just never know!!!
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- Jul 26, 2003
I believe Michelle is one of the favorites to win the Olympic title in Turino. It seems to me that a few of Michelle's fans are convinced that she is the
under-dog and will go into the Olympics with little to no pressure but to just skate and give it her all. She's been on top of the sport for more then a decade, being off the podium at worlds for the first time in ten years is not going to change the fact that she is one of the top ladies out there today.
I also believe the media pressure will go mostly to her. Why? She is Michelle Kwan, the most popular female skater out there today, competing in her 3rd Olympics and ones again, trying to go for the gold. Will she do it?
The American media will hype her up, because they want her to win that elusive Olympic gold. The USFSA will write all kinds of articles on her. Becuase of all these people focusing on Kwan, the international judges will take notice.
I believe many Americans and people world wide will be watching Kwan's LP in Turino with sweating hands and a whole load of nerves. Can she win? Stay tuned.
I can't wait for next season to begin.
under-dog and will go into the Olympics with little to no pressure but to just skate and give it her all. She's been on top of the sport for more then a decade, being off the podium at worlds for the first time in ten years is not going to change the fact that she is one of the top ladies out there today.
I also believe the media pressure will go mostly to her. Why? She is Michelle Kwan, the most popular female skater out there today, competing in her 3rd Olympics and ones again, trying to go for the gold. Will she do it?
The American media will hype her up, because they want her to win that elusive Olympic gold. The USFSA will write all kinds of articles on her. Becuase of all these people focusing on Kwan, the international judges will take notice.
I believe many Americans and people world wide will be watching Kwan's LP in Turino with sweating hands and a whole load of nerves. Can she win? Stay tuned.
I can't wait for next season to begin.
Excidra, I don't doubt that Michelle will get loads of media attention. At this point I think she would be a sentimental favorite though. Clearly she won't be entering with the same sort of expectations as before. I rather feel she will handle things differently too. Her life is set now ... she has had an amazingly successful career ... which is not to say there won't be pressure ... of course there will be. So much depends too on how she looks throughout the season. If she comes out fighting, who knows what happens from there!
This will be a remarkable season, I agree. :agree:
This will be a remarkable season, I agree. :agree:
I'm sorry if I didn't make it clear before, but I actually wasn't at the competition in Nagano (I wish I was, though!). However, I did watch it on TV, and at a time where I knew who nobody was (except for MK, but that's only because she was mentioned endlessly). Nor was I in SLC.
Just wanted to clear that up...
ETA:
What perceived emotions? Sorry, I don't understand what you mean
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Excidra2001 said:
I dunno...I'm anything but an MK fan and I believe she is an underdog at this point, just because of where she is right now. However, ITA with your comments about the media hyping Kwan endlessly. In fact they may hype her so much it might turn some against her.
I've seen it happen. Same here.
We'll know in 8 months. It's questions like these that keep the pressure on her, IMO. She is in a position she's never been in before and people here are still saying, "Can she win?" No doubt the press will do the same, and people who never follow skating will still think she's in the hunt. Couple that with a new judging system, several threats, and this just may be her hardest Olympics yet. She probably had it easy in 98 and 02 compared to this year.
- Joined
- Jun 21, 2003
The more I look at the CoP numbers, the more it seems like all of the advice we are giving Michelle is related.
Specifically, there does not seem to be any way to resurrect her missing loop, or of skating a 7 triple program, without a triple-triple.
To get the maximum points, you have to do two Lutzes and two filps. Let's say Michelle goes
3Lz-2T
3Lz
3F-2Lo
3F
That's 4 jumping passes, so she has 3 passes left to work in a Loop, Salchow and Toe-loop, plus the required double Axel. Unless she goes for a double Axel + triple something sequence, she's in a squeeze.
The winning program would be
3Lz-3T
3F-2T-2Lo
3Lz
3F
3S
3Lo
2A
Mathman
Specifically, there does not seem to be any way to resurrect her missing loop, or of skating a 7 triple program, without a triple-triple.
To get the maximum points, you have to do two Lutzes and two filps. Let's say Michelle goes
3Lz-2T
3Lz
3F-2Lo
3F
That's 4 jumping passes, so she has 3 passes left to work in a Loop, Salchow and Toe-loop, plus the required double Axel. Unless she goes for a double Axel + triple something sequence, she's in a squeeze.
The winning program would be
3Lz-3T
3F-2T-2Lo
3Lz
3F
3S
3Lo
2A
Mathman
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- Jul 11, 2003
Yup, I agree that Michelle is a sentimental favorite for the Olys for many American fans and so do I think Sasha's second try will also be a baited breath event for her legion of fans in the US and the world, too.
But I do not understand how dropping from 3rd to 4th place in the last 2 worlds and no GPs to speak of can put Michelle in a position to win an Olympic gold medal in such a short period of time. She's up against the Bielman queen, the Flexible queen and the Speed queen. If any of those top skaters blow it, then I will concede Michelle may get a medal provided Shizuka stays in hibernation, and Joannie and Susanna do not get to their breakthroughs in Torino.
And who will be the teenybopper from the USA to be in the Olys and just grab the limelight in Torino? One of them will hit the Quad!! And the judges will rush the pcs scores to match.
And yes, there will be many fans world wide with sweaty hands hoping she skates badly. That's a definite.
It's true, the media uses her. In two NY newspapers, her birthday in July was mentioned with celebrities for that month. What other skater gets that sort of publicity? If you don't like Kwan, this can be irritating. Only gold medalists should be popular.
And the press in Moscow will celebrate Irina's third try for gold too. Will they not?
Joe
But I do not understand how dropping from 3rd to 4th place in the last 2 worlds and no GPs to speak of can put Michelle in a position to win an Olympic gold medal in such a short period of time. She's up against the Bielman queen, the Flexible queen and the Speed queen. If any of those top skaters blow it, then I will concede Michelle may get a medal provided Shizuka stays in hibernation, and Joannie and Susanna do not get to their breakthroughs in Torino.
And who will be the teenybopper from the USA to be in the Olys and just grab the limelight in Torino? One of them will hit the Quad!! And the judges will rush the pcs scores to match.
And yes, there will be many fans world wide with sweaty hands hoping she skates badly. That's a definite.
It's true, the media uses her. In two NY newspapers, her birthday in July was mentioned with celebrities for that month. What other skater gets that sort of publicity? If you don't like Kwan, this can be irritating. Only gold medalists should be popular.
And the press in Moscow will celebrate Irina's third try for gold too. Will they not?
Joe
re: jump layouts
You forgot to add a 3rd combo to your analysis. I think Michelle picked the right jump layout last season. Here's what she had planned at Worlds (although she ended up doing a 3T/2T to get the 3rd combo in):
3L/2T/2R
6.0
1.3
1.5
3F/2T
5.5
1.3
3L 6.0
3F 5.5
3S/2T
4.5
1.3
3T 4.0
2A 3.3
40.2
If she replaces the solo toe with a loop, that will only give her one additional point. I don't think it's worth the risk. She'll most likely get higher GOE's on the toe since it's a stronger jump for her.
If she's going to add a loop, she should probably go for it in combination. She was working on a 3T/3R earlier in the season:
3L/2T/2R
6.0
1.3
1.5
3F/2T
5.5
1.3
3L 6.0
3F 5.5
3T/3R
4
5.0
3S 4.5
2A 3.3
43.9
This would be a very difficult program, but at least the point difference would be worth the risk. I think she should concentrate on upping her other element levels first (go for level 4 everything or more difficult jump entries).
You forgot to add a 3rd combo to your analysis. I think Michelle picked the right jump layout last season. Here's what she had planned at Worlds (although she ended up doing a 3T/2T to get the 3rd combo in):
3L/2T/2R
6.0
1.3
1.5
3F/2T
5.5
1.3
3L 6.0
3F 5.5
3S/2T
4.5
1.3
3T 4.0
2A 3.3
40.2
If she replaces the solo toe with a loop, that will only give her one additional point. I don't think it's worth the risk. She'll most likely get higher GOE's on the toe since it's a stronger jump for her.
If she's going to add a loop, she should probably go for it in combination. She was working on a 3T/3R earlier in the season:
3L/2T/2R
6.0
1.3
1.5
3F/2T
5.5
1.3
3L 6.0
3F 5.5
3T/3R
4
5.0
3S 4.5
2A 3.3
43.9
This would be a very difficult program, but at least the point difference would be worth the risk. I think she should concentrate on upping her other element levels first (go for level 4 everything or more difficult jump entries).
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- Feb 5, 2004
Red Dog said:
Well yes and no - the last two Olympics have had clean, planned jump content completed programs with exceptional energy and skating with no holds barred...other than 1998 and 2002, when has that happened? '94 - a (i would say very) flawed Baiul won not executing all planned content, '92 - Did Yamaguchi fall or did she only pop a jump, eithe way not perfect. '88 and '84 i didn't see but i think i've read that Witt did double one of the higher triples that was sometimes abit iffy for her to play it safe - would that have been the flip? Anyway my point is that Olympic free skates from the ladies have generally not been clean especially in the era of triples, that might well be changing but performances like in 1998 and 2002 i would argue are the exception not the rule, this might be the start of a new era where the trend is for perfect programs from the ladies skating unbelievably well and maybe if that happens again in 2006 i might be more convinced.
Ant
Joesitz said:
I don't know Joe. I don't see this as an insurmountable task. I agree it won't be easy, but I certainly don't see it as anywhere near impossible. Look at Irina who didn't even compete in '03 Worlds, and then did very poorly in '04.
I accept this will be her hardest try yet, but maybe the dynamics this time will be totally different and they will work in her favor. I may be way off base here, but I just think her frame of mind will be so key this time, and right now she is the happiest and most relaxed I've ever seen her. I just want to see her throw down one of her totally emotional, from-the-heart programs ... regardless of what the jumps are ... and be happy with herself. Then whatever happens, happens.
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- Feb 5, 2004
tripleflutz said:
While i agree that she gave up on her triple loop last season, but the triple sal?! She fell on it once on the night compared to the how many htousand times she's landed it? Jeez rochette fell on a bunch of jumps are we saying she no longer has those too?!
tripleflutz said:
That's probably true enough but i don't understand why her straightline sequence wouldn't have been level 2 or 3 (i'm no checking the records so forgive me if she did) but maybe if she comeptes in the GP series that's all she needs to get the callers to realise to she does have level 3 step sequences. To my mind no one does footwrok better than kwan and she should (with the right chorgeopgraphy) be pulling off level three on all of her footwork.
tripleflutz said:
Re the 3/3 - it depends i view it like the quad in the mens - it doesn't matter if you land the quad and then you miss your 3A or some of your other jumps. I think it truly dpeends on the standings after the SP, honestly given the lead we've seen irina get in the SP i don't think she'll need one. Depending on the other aspects of Kwan's skating - unless she's planning on bringing back the triple loop this season, she has nothing to gain from doing a triple/triple except maybe doing another double axel. given the only likely triple triple she'll do is toe/toe - i think she's better off sticking to the 3/2/2s she look likely to do and repeat the lutz and flip and gain points advamtage there.
The above pretty much answers the second point about all the triples - there is nowhere in the rules that says that a skater must peform all the triple jumps. She's not going to lose marks by not performing all of the triple jumps she gets more points by repeating the flip than by omitting the flip and doing a loop, and she can only get a place for the loop if she does a 3/3.
I totally agree that the winning skater will need a a fair few level 3s in their program but since level 3 on spins = bielmann i'm not sure she can pull off a level 3in the spins - unless she bring back the catch foot camel with her foot higher than her head (which she can do) and enhance her spins that way. Since she is perfectly capabale of level 3 footwork i would expect her and her choreographer (do we have have it officially confirmed about TT yet?) to have level 3 footwork in both the SP and LP.
tripleflutz said:
I'll resevre judgment til i see how everyone is doing at the start of the season...based on last years worlds i would agree with you. I also agree that the media hype will be unbearable but the pressure she actually feels might be less, afterall Irina is going for gold for the third time too and comes in as reigning world champ...
Ant
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- Feb 5, 2004
tripleflutz said:
That's a big "if" though - she has never skated her best in an SP and LP at the same competition (unless you count the QR and SP from worlds this year) so to count on sasha doing somethign she's never done i don't think is too realistic.
tripleflutz said:
She deosn't need all of the triples - i've explained ni an earlier post why. And i have not seen any evidence of kwan getting a deduction for flutzing.
tripleflutz said:
Well she became a superior spinner last season - adding new positions and spinning on her inside edge on backspins IMO better than Irina who looked like she was nearly falling off hers. Kwan's curertn layback is not very weak - its faster than most of the ladies out there (obviously not Irina of Sasha) but it is a solid spin - she may not have the high free leg but she gets above average back bend which is the most important part of a layback. Technically all she needs to do to get that up to a level two is start in the traditional position and hold it for 3 revs then lower the free leg and bring her hands behind her back AND speed up and she should get that level 2. She used to have a very good traditional free leg position on her layback but it was a much slower spin so she can do it. Aslo i think her spin revs have gotten faster - compare he '98 spin speed with 2002 spin speed andyou'll see she's much faster then compare 2002 with last year and you'll see she's faster.
tripleflutz said:
Higher marks than who? She got the higest marks for her spiral didn't she? She doesn't need higher marks in her spirals - also just becasue everyone is doing the change of edge it doesn't mean its suddenly not an enhancing factor for the purposes of the COP level setting. the edge of edge is an enhancement like a Biellmann position - she can do all of the enhancement to get the highest level in the spirals and IMO becasue she has the most speed the deepest edges and the greatest flow with the least amount of cross overs/steps to keep the flow she should get the highest GOEs too.
tripleflutz said:
I agree that she had too many level 1s ni her skating last season but i dno't know where your worlds levels came from cos i thought kwan god a level3 for her spiral? There are six elements in the free with levels attached right? I don't doubt that Kwan will still have her level 3 spirals next season (by then level 4) i don't doubt that hse can get another level 3 (or are all levels up to 4?) on her footwork, then there's four spins - two of which she has at level 2 already. I presume that its her layback and her flying spin that got level 1s. I've already explained how she could get a level2 layback (without the biellmann she'll never get level three) and maybe this season instead of the flying sit she could go back to flying camel, transition to the catch foot camel and get on the inside edge of the spin at the end...that would up her to at least a level 2 no?
These are things that are all manageable in the off season - she doesn't need to learn anything new for the step sequences she just needs to choregraph wioth teh rule book, for the spins - she was already doing an inside edge backspin so getting the camel from it wouldn't necessariyl be impossible, and maybe learnign the forwards outside edge spin is also possible so that she can put all the changes of edge in the combo spin along with maybe a catchfoot camel and her good Y spins and might even crank that up to a level three. I don't thinks its impossible at all
tripleflutz said:
I do agree i think gold is a longshot but i think she has the skills to up the leevls if needs be. I'm just intrigued to see what she comes up with for next year!
Ant
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- Feb 5, 2004
tripleflutz said:
But she hasn't said that she's training as much as her body will allow - she's said taht she's been training for the long haul of eligible competition...this season will be her last so she can let rip if she needs. Maybe its been her and rafael's plan to improve the technique she has on what she does so that this season will be the one she can go all out and do the GPs as well as Nats and Olys and the steady solid training from the last three years means she's less likely to injure herself? Wishful thinking is all we can do - ice is slippery you can't count on or guarantee anything - you get your blade cuaght in a rut and you can flub a jump - even top class worlds medalists get the dreaded "click of death" and fall (see maria B and also Robin Cousins!).
Ant
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