Does anyone think Michelle has a chance?

[antmanb]

I don't quite agree with you here, Joe. Michelle is great but there have been many women before her who have accomplished far more then she has and are also right up there with Sonia Henie.

I have one question for you....who?????

Ant

 

[antmanb]

Well I don't blame Red Dog for missing Irina in Nagano. It wasn't as if she was a big deal competitor. Though I remember the judges propping her up in the SP with a 5th place finish despite only doing a 2-2 combo instead of a 3-2.

Ok i think she got a bit of a gift in the SP as well but her LP was good and strong and included at least one 3/3 - even if you were just lookingat podium threats Irina was still there as two time European champ with potentially 2 3/3s planned, it was feasible that she coud end up with the bronze if luliu made mistakes and other skaters did better.

I think at the very least the final flight is always a good watch - the last 2 flights a deifninte treat!

Ant

 

[antmanb]

The more I look at the CoP numbers, the more it seems like all of the advice we are giving Michelle is related.

Specifically, there does not seem to be any way to resurrect her missing loop, or of skating a 7 triple program, without a triple-triple.

To get the maximum points, you have to do two Lutzes and two filps. Let's say Michelle goes

3Lz-2T
3Lz
3F-2Lo
3F

That's 4 jumping passes, so she has 3 passes left to work in a Loop, Salchow and Toe-loop, plus the required double Axel. Unless she goes for a double Axel + triple something sequence, she's in a squeeze.

The winning program would be

3Lz-3T
3F-2T-2Lo
3Lz
3F
3S
3Lo
2A

Mathman

Or how about:
3Lz-2T-2Lp
3F-2T-2Lp
3Lz
3F
3S
3T
2A (40.4 base mark)

Your program above gets a base value of 42.6 - and i think at this stage its impossible for michelle - she's never done a 3lutz/3toe in competition and i don't think this season will be the one to come up with a roaring new 3/3 like that, i think more likely in the best case scenrio woul dbe doing 3t/3t, and instead of the Flip combo have the Lutz as the opening jump on that combo and repeat the lutz not the flip to make room for the repeated toe...this makes a base score of 41.1 and assumes that she can (a) land the 3t/3t and (b) land the triple loop...and to only gain a point advantage of 0.7? I think she's better doing the one i've set out (presuming you can do two three jump combos which i'm not sure about) and doing them all well than the other?

Can someone just clarify how many three jump combo you can do and actually can't you do three combos? I might have abteer one for her still without the loop or a 3/3 if you can have three jump combos!

Ant

 

[antmanb]

Or how about:
3Lz-2T-2Lp
3F-2T-2Lp
3Lz
3F
3S
3T
2A (40.4 base mark)

Your program above gets a base value of 42.6 - and i think at this stage its impossible for michelle - she's never done a 3lutz/3toe in competition and i don't think this season will be the one to come up with a roaring new 3/3 like that, i think more likely in the best case scenrio woul dbe doing 3t/3t, and instead of the Flip combo have the Lutz as the opening jump on that combo and repeat the lutz not the flip to make room for the repeated toe...this makes a base score of 41.1 and assumes that she can (a) land the 3t/3t and (b) land the triple loop...and to only gain a point advantage of 0.7? I think she's better doing the one i've set out (presuming you can do two three jump combos which i'm not sure about) and doing them all well than the other?

Can someone just clarify how many three jump combo you can do and actually can't you do three combos? I might have abteer one for her still without the loop or a 3/3 if you can have three jump combos!

Ant

Adding to my own post and taking the rules to be a mximum of three copmbos and only one three jump combo:

3Lz-2T-2Lp
3F-2T
2A-3T
3Lz
3F
3S
2A (or 3 loop if its back)

The two double axel program would get base marks of: 42.2. If it had the loop it would be 43.9

Ant

 

[antmanb]

Adding to my own post and taking the rules to be a mximum of three copmbos and only one three jump combo:

3Lz-2T-2Lp
3F-2T
2A-3T
3Lz
3F
3S
2A (or 3 loop if its back)

The two double axel program would get base marks of: 42.2. If it had the loop it would be 43.9

Ant

And another addition, if she could do a loop on the back of the flip instead of the toe she'd be on 42.4 for the two 2A prog and 44.1 for the 3Lp prog.

Ant

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I don't know Joe. I don't see this as an insurmountable task. I agree it won't be easy, but I certainly don't see it as anywhere near impossible. Look at Irina who didn't even compete in '03 Worlds, and then did very poorly in '04.
I accept this will be her hardest try yet, but maybe the dynamics this time will be totally different and they will work in her favor. I may be way off base here, but I just think her frame of mind will be so key this time, and right now she is the happiest and most relaxed I've ever seen her. I just want to see her throw down one of her totally emotional, from-the-heart programs ... regardless of what the jumps are ... and be happy with herself. Then whatever happens, happens.

nymkfan51 - Nothing is insurmountabble in Icetown. What we have with MK is a somewhat decline from 2003 (int'l comps) where she had a total clean skate.
It is the timing for the recovery that I question. First she has to get back to the 2003 level and then proceed to take on the Bielmans, the Flexibles and the Speedsters., not to mention the reawakening of Shizuka. One needs a lot of energy for that. Has MK shown us she is motivated? or are we still looking for that proverbial 'she'll surprise us'. Hasn't been there since DC Worlds.

I don't think MK is unhappy about being an underdog. I just don't think she will hit the podium, and I get the feeling, she's ok with that. I kind of wish she would feel the pressure. She'll skate a beautiful LP but will it be competitive?

If we are going for another teenybopper to win the Olys - watch Kimmie come to life - no nerves - just a pleasant style and a whopping 3A and maybe in combo, too. (Carolina, move over.)

Joe

 

[chipso1]

I'm sure Michelle will be just fine by the time Torino rolls around. We all know that she's capable of level 3 (or now, level 4) spirals, and I'm sure with TAT in her camp, she'll be getting level 4 steps as well.

As for her spins, yeah, she's not the greatest spinner, but her positions, centering, and steadiness are first rate. I think that she needs to bring back the spins she did at the Winter Marshall's last year (flying camel into corkscrew; combo spin of: change edge camel - catch leg sit spin - back camel - back sit - change edge back upright spin; deathdrop into change-edge back sit spin). She obviously knows what it takes to garner points under CoP - it's just a matter of her getting comfortable with the spins/positions - which I'm sure she's working on this summer with Rafael.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that with her steady jumps, gorgeous spirals, intricate footwork, and solid spins, Michelle Kwan will be ready by the time this season starts. I highly doubt she's going to concede this season - she's got a lot of fight left in her . . . . . .

 

[attyfan]

nymkfan51 - Nothing is insurmountabble in Icetown. What we have with MK is a somewhat decline from 2003 (int'l comps) where she had a total clean skate.
It is the timing for the recovery that I question. First she has to get back to the 2003 level and then proceed to take on the Bielmans, the Flexibles and the Speedsters., not to mention the reawakening of Shizuka. One needs a lot of energy for that. Has MK shown us she is motivated? or are we still looking for that proverbial 'she'll surprise us'. Hasn't been there since DC Worlds.

I don't think MK is unhappy about being an underdog. I just don't think she will hit the podium, and I get the feeling, she's ok with that. I kind of wish she would feel the pressure. She'll skate a beautiful LP but will it be competitive?

If we are going for another teenybopper to win the Olys - watch Kimmie come to life - no nerves - just a pleasant style and a whopping 3A and maybe in combo, too. (Carolina, move over.)

Joe

I thought that her final free skate in Dortmund showed something of the stuff Michelle is made out of -- especially considering the streaker. Certainly, if Shizuka can make the kind of comeback that she needs to win the OGM, Michelle can, also. (This doesn't mean that Michelle -- or Shizuka -- can, or will, make the necessary comeback, just that the two are equally capable).

Also -- as far as Kimmie is concerned -- has a lady ever won the OGM without first appearing on the Worlds podium?

 

[Doggygirl]

(without the biellmann she'll never get level three)

This is the sort of comment that I interpret as nothing more than a snark at Irina. A Biellmann position is NOT a requirement for a Level 3 (now 4) spin. Read the rules. Evidence Sasha's Level 3 spin sans Biellmann position.

If you personally don't prefer Irina's Biellmann position as something that appeals to you, fine. Just say so. If you think Irina over-uses the Biellmann position to the point it makes her programs boring to you, fine. Just say so. That's all a matter of personal opinion, which everyone is entitled to.

But please don't mis-state the rules and the facts.

DG

 

[gkelly]

Also -- as far as Kimmie is concerned -- has a lady ever won the OGM without first appearing on the Worlds podium?

Asked and answered in another thread. No.

http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/showthread.php?p=126177#post126177

 

[attyfan]

thank you for reminding me. please forgive my mental blanks.

 

[chipso1]

But, Katarina Witt went from 4th in '83 to gold in '84 . . . . . a good omen for Michelle? :yes:

 

[R.D.]

Omens, wishes, and hopes can only go so far. In reality, she still has to overcome quite a bit.

 

[mzheng]

Can someone just clarify how many three jump combo you can do and actually can't you do three combos? I might have abteer one for her still without the loop or a 3/3 if you can have three jump combos!

Ant

You can have only 1 comb/seriials with 3 jumps in it.

How about change your 2nd comb to 3Flip/3Toe. She had it pretty consistant in practice early on last season.

btw, it was fun to read your post in a row. Very realistic analysis.

 

[Mathman]

I don't quite agree with you here, Joe. Michelle is great but there have been many women before her who have accomplished far more then she has and are also right up there with Sonia Henie.

I have one question for you....who?

To me, it's always fun but futile to compare skaters of one era with those of another. The only skater whose competitive record can be mentioned in the same breath with Sonia Henie's is Irina Rodnina. Other skaters with impressive resumes are Katarina Witt (four World Championships and 2 Olympic gold medals) and Dick Button (the only man to win the grand slam -- North American Championship, European Championship, World championship and Olympic Championship in the same year.)

Still, in every measurable sport each new generation of athletes learns what they can from the old geezers and goes on from there to ever greater heights. I have no reason to doubt that the same thing is true in a "judged, not measured" sport like figure skating. The hardest trick Sonia Henie ever did was a single Axel - hop - single Axel sequence.

If Dick Button skated his 1952 Olympic program now, featuring not only a double Axel but a triple toe loop! -- it would be laughed off the ice, compared to what performers like Yagudin and Plushenko can do.

Not to dis these giants in the history of the sport. But today's athletes are better in every measurable way.

JMHO (*ducking the tomatoes*)

Mathman

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

MM - I think your disinterest in comparing different eras is because you started late in enjoying the sport of figure skating There are those 'old timers' who still think Babe Ruth, Caruso, Alicia Markova, etc. were special in any era.

Please explain Rodnina in comparison to Henie.

With all Sonia's faults in life, she made skating famous. Only Michelle keeps it going in that direction. Hate them or love them. They are the famous ones and deservedly so, imo.

I just can't imagine someone being more associated with figure skating than Henie.

Joe

 

[mememe]

To me, it's always fun but futile to compare skaters of one era with those of another. The only skater whose competitive record can be mentioned in the same breath with Sonia Henie's is Irina Rodnina. Other skaters with impressive resumes are Katarina Witt (four World Championships and 2 Olympic gold medals) and Dick Button (the only man to win the grand slam -- North American Championship, European Championship, World championship and Olympic Championship in the same year.)
(snip)
Not to dis these giants in the history of the sport. But today's athletes are better in every measurable way.

JMHO (*ducking the tomatoes*)

Mathman

Well, I'm not throwing any tomatoes, but I do think your statement that today's athletes are better "in every measurable way" is incorrect -- mainly because we can't "measure" athletes from former eras equally against athletes of this era.

We'll never know what yesterday's athletes would have or could have done with the training, equipment, medical advances, etc., that today's athletes have. Sonia Henie and Dick Button COULDN'T have done the kinds of jumps (and some other moves) that skaters do today because their skates wouldn't hold up to it. The types of medical and dietary information and equipment that today's skaters benefit from were unknown back in the Henie days -- and women weren't even allowed to do much by way of athletics.

So, how good would Sonia Henie have been with Michelle Kwan's boots, training regimen, etc? Would Dick Button have been doing quads if he'd had the same training, equipment and medical treatments that Evgeni Plushenko has available to him? Heck, would Boitano, Hamilton, Fratianne, the Carruthers, Orser, Thomas or any number of 60s, 70s and 80s skaters have achieved some of the records and medal marks achieved by Kwan and others if they'd have been able to make millions of dollars and remain "eligible?"

We'll never know.

I agree with your first statement -- it's futile to compare skaters of one era with another. You can look at some records to get an idea of how far "ahead of the times" an athlete was or wasn't (like Bob Beamon's long jump -- his feat is one of the most incredible in history because it took so long for anyone to again reach that distance), but overall, you really can't compare times. Was Bob Cousy better than Larry Bird or John Stockton or Magic Johnson? Who knows? Was Johnny Unitas a better quarterback than Joe Montana or Tom Brady? How can you ever know? You can break the records others have set, as Michelle has been doing, and that's quite an accomplishment. That puts her in the record books and deservedly gives her a place in history. But if someone comes along in 80 years, with space-age boots and blades, light knee and back braces that basically eliminate problems with overuse or strains of those two parts of the body, etc., and all sorts of new eligibility rules that allow for longer careers (hey, you can win worlds at 10 years old and with new technology, you can get knee, hip and back replacements and be good as new at 50), and breaks all her records, would you then consider THEM "better in every measureable way" than Michelle?

Maybe you would -- I wouldn't. I'd consider Michelle one of the top athletes of her time, Sonia one of the top athletes of her time, Button, Hamilton, Boitano, etc., one of the top athletes of their time -- and whoever dominates or accomplishes historic things in the next generation would be another "top" athlete to add to the list. Until we can get all of them side-by-side and give them the same opportunities, same training methods, etc., and see who trained hardest, who accomplished most against each other, etc., we can never zero in on one from this generation as "better in every measurable way" than another from another generation, because we can't measure them all in the same manner.

And back on subject -- Do I think Michelle has a chance at 2006 gold? Of course she does. She's among the top in the field, has been on the podium or close to it in every competition she's been in since the 2002 Olympics. Obviously, she's one of several who has a very realistic chance at the 2006 Olympic podium, including the top step. Will she win it? Don't know, and won't know until the competition's over. There are a bunch of factors that will figure in, and it is, after all, just two performances, about six minutes or so of time on the ice and anything can happen.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

And they did it outdoors without Zambonis. How's that for comparison.

 

[gkelly]

Well, if we had film or video with closeups of the tracings for school figures skated by Henie or Button, etc., and compared them with video of today's skater's doing the same figures, we could compare them technically, although not in the immediate context that the figures were actually judged. My guess is that the older skaters would come out better in that particular measurable way, just because the current ones haven't been training those skills to the same level.

Why is Rodnina comparable to Henie? Same number of gold medals: 10 world championships, 3 Olympics

 

[antmanb]

This is the sort of comment that I interpret as nothing more than a snark at Irina. A Biellmann position is NOT a requirement for a Level 3 (now 4) spin. Read the rules. Evidence Sasha's Level 3 spin sans Biellmann position.

If you personally don't prefer Irina's Biellmann position as something that appeals to you, fine. Just say so. If you think Irina over-uses the Biellmann position to the point it makes her programs boring to you, fine. Just say so. That's all a matter of personal opinion, which everyone is entitled to.

But please don't mis-state the rules and the facts.

DG

No that is you reading into my post some misguided feeling that i'm bashing irina. All i said was without a Biellmann position Kwan will never get a level 3 layback...i have read the rules and i didn't mention Irina i quoted the rules - the biellmann position is an enhancement of the layback spin for the element levels. In the Layback spin category you have to get all of the enhancements to get a level 4 please tell me how kwan is to get a level 4 layback without it...and for crying out loud how many more posts do i need to write gushing over Irina for people to give it up and realise i like them both - check the other threads before you accuse me of bashing Irina.

You brought up spirals - i was talking about spins...as far as Irina's level 3 layback from last season - i liked it a lot - it was the one spin that was pretty much spot on centred all season.

Ant