Rika Hongo, where would you place her at Worlds?

[chuckm]

Injuries had nothing to do with that disaster at 4CC for Gracie. She simply is not a good competitor just like Mirai or Alissa were also not strong competitors. A skater of her talent should not be making so many mistakes especially on jumps which she can do in her sleep. All you have to do is look at her face when she gets out there and you know she's going to be tight and make silly mistakes. I don't see her attack when she has a chance to win instead she backs off and you don't win championships that way and this has been an ongoing thing since she turned Senior.

That 'not good competitor' was 4th in Sochi and 5th at 2014 Worlds.

 

[Alchamei]

That 'not good competitor' was 4th in Sochi and 5th at 2014 Worlds.

In Sochi she fell in the FS, but for her defence she wouldn't medal anyway I think. However, at Worlds her mistakes on her Axel jumps (one pop and one fall) simply didn't allow her to medal, but she definietly had a chance there.

 

[sunnystars]

I see Russia, USA Rika, Satoko, and Park so Youn and Zijun li in top 10.

no canadians?

 

[randomfan]

Rika will probably land in 7th or 8th, depending on how Polina, So Youn, Zijun, Gracie and Satoko do. Maybe put even Kanako in there. But top 6 is not likely at least for me.

For my predictions:
1. Polina will probably do well, but certainly not enough for top 4 due to lower PCS and flip problems.
2. So Youn will (FINALLY...excluding nationals) skate one of her programs cleanly and will skate the other program decently, but will not finish too high because of her low PCS like Polina.
3. Zijun will skate just like she did at Four Continents. And she will get higher scores this time.
4. Same thing that happens to So Youn may also happen to Gracie - for some reason I have a feeling she will finally do well this season.
5. Satoko will fall or at least step out, but have all other mistakes be minor.

Rika may be consistent but she makes the same mistakes all the time like that 3F-3T<. If the other skaters do well, then her marks will not be as high as them since they underrotate less. If the others bomb then she has a good chance of moving up.

Sort of unrelated, but can anyone tell me why her PCS for Carmen was higher than Samantha Cesario's PCS for Carmen at Four Continents?

 

[witcher]

If all goes clean at optimal level at Shanghai, no technical issues, no dodgy calls, no biased judging panel, this is my ranking.

1/2 Gracie Gold, Liza Tuk

 

[satine]

Sort of unrelated, but can anyone tell me why her PCS for Carmen was higher than Samantha Cesario's PCS for Carmen at Four Continents?

I can post a breakdown. Can't say why exactly either were scored as they were, since I wasn't a judge there

Hongo vs. Cesario
Skating Skills (+0.43)
7.18........6.75
Transitions (+0.14)
6.71........6.57
Perf (+0.18)
7.14........6.96
Choreo (-0.07)
7.14........7.21
Interpretation (-0.21)
7.00........7.21
-----------
Total PCS (+0.74)
56.27.....55.53

There was a greater variety in Cesario's PCS spread as well (before the elimination of the lowest+highest scores)-
Hongo vs. Cesario, same order as above
0.75........1.25
0.75........1.50
1.00........2.50
1.25........1.75
1.00........2.25

In fact, judge #4 & #6 were the clear high & low scorers for Cesario.

 

[schneil01]

I put Rika right at #10

 

[Globetrotter]

I don't think she will. My ranking is based on the idea IF EVERYONE skate at their Optimal level, ie/ everyone at their very best. Which is unlikely to happen at the same competition. But it can, like at the Olympics.

I believe Gracie is the most naturally gifted athlete and has huge potential (like Pogo), and her weaknesses are something that can be worked on and improve. Her threshold for improvement is far from optimized due to the wrong advisor/programs...

While I agree that Gold has huge potential and talent, reality is this talent must be realized. I only partially agree with your statement that her CR and programme is not maxing out her potential. I think what Gold lacks is that extra bit of competitive mentality much like Cohen, Nicole Bobek. These ladies were all way more talented than say a Michelle Kwan or Kristi Yamaguchi but they simply lack the discipline and steady nerves in competition which resulted in less than optimal results. The Russians are not necessarily more talented than Gold but one thing you can credit them for is the fight, especially Radionova and also Tuks. I do believe that in the real competition, this fight and competitive nerve will bring the skater ahead more consistently than natural talent alone.

 

[FSGMT]

Probably 8th or so, but I think her days are numbered unless she develops some kind of style. I can't remember anything about her programs except that she does Carmen. The jumps are decent, but there's nothing else there.

I wouldn't say that, I was actually really impressed by her beautiful musicality in this year's SP: nothing original, yes, but lovely arm movements and a nice choreography that does actually have something to do with the music :yes:

 

[chuckm]

However, Rika's poor posture detracts from the balletic theme of the music, despite the 'lovely arm movements'. There are moments where she actually looks ungainly.

 

[chuckm]

What the Russian ladies have over Gracie Gold is that they are far more conditioned to competition than she is. Young Russian ladies endure yearlong intramural competitions throughout their novice and junior careers and only the best of them emerge to compete in the senior ranks. By that time, most are very secure in their competition skills and truly do have that killer instinct.

The Japanese ladies are very competitive, too, but their competitions are still not organized at anywhere near the level the Russian ladies are.

 

[Violetti]

Top 12, from 8th to 12th.

 

[Alchamei]

I can post a breakdown. Can't say why exactly either were scored as they were, since I wasn't a judge there

Hongo vs. Cesario
Skating Skills (+0.43)
7.18........6.75
Transitions (+0.14)
6.71........6.57
Perf (+0.18)
7.14........6.96
Choreo (-0.07)
7.14........7.21
Interpretation (-0.21)
7.00........7.21
-----------
Total PCS (+0.74)
56.27.....55.53

There was a greater variety in Cesario's PCS spread as well (before the elimination of the lowest+highest scores)-
Hongo vs. Cesario, same order as above
0.75........1.25
0.75........1.50
1.00........2.50
1.25........1.75
1.00........2.25

In fact, judge #4 & #6 were the clear high & low scorers for Cesario.

Rika has higher PCS overall but lost CH and IN to Samantha. I guess that's fair.

 

[Ryusa5]

I really hope she does great and places as high as possible.

There's not much chance for her and the other senior skaters to get good results.Next year Wakaba will turn senior and lead the ladies and the following year Marin and Yuna too.
The japanese media with all the attention to them made it pretty clear to me that those 3 are the favourites to Pyongchang.And they do have the talent for that but I feel bad for the other girls who are just there to fill the spots till they can compete

 

[randomfan]

I can post a breakdown. Can't say why exactly either were scored as they were, since I wasn't a judge there

Hongo vs. Cesario
Skating Skills (+0.43)
7.18........6.75
Transitions (+0.14)
6.71........6.57
Perf (+0.18)
7.14........6.96
Choreo (-0.07)
7.14........7.21
Interpretation (-0.21)
7.00........7.21
-----------
Total PCS (+0.74)
56.27.....55.53

There was a greater variety in Cesario's PCS spread as well (before the elimination of the lowest+highest scores)-
Hongo vs. Cesario, same order as above
0.75........1.25
0.75........1.50
1.00........2.50
1.25........1.75
1.00........2.25

In fact, judge #4 & #6 were the clear high & low scorers for Cesario.

Thank for this!

 

[hippomoomin]

I believe Rika will be in the top 10, if not top 7. I don't like her posture at all, but she has been consistent. Folks seem to forget she beat Zijun Li at 4CC, while placing higher hopes on Zijun.

 

[chuckm]

She beat Zijun by less than two points.
In the SP, Zijun did only 3f+2t, altho she probably planned 3f+3t. That put her behind Rika by 1 point.

In the FS, it was very close:
Rika 116.16 3f+3t<, 3z, 3lo, 3s, 2a+1lo+3s<, 3f, 2a+2t
Zijun 115.47 3f+3t, 2a+3t, 3ze, 3lo, 3f, 3s, 2a

A 3/3 in the SP and a 3 jump combo in the FS would put Zijun ahead of Rika.....

 

[Sandpiper]

Regarding Rika vs. Samantha (in PCS), I'd like to add: later group + "PCS follows TES." Samantha should really get more credit for her P/E, INT, and CH, especially since her TES errors aren't disruptive to the program. But judges seem to really prize SS, TR, and speed (the more "objective" criteria?), and the other categories tend to follow those.

 

[Alba]

I guess it depends from how the rest of the ladies skate. If all, starting from the Russians, USA, Japan, Sweden, Helgesson sisters, Korpi, Zijun, Park skate clean (which I don't think so because some are going to make mistakes) I would put Rika in 15th place. She has decent jumps but for me she is completely forgettable, at the moment.

 

[sabinfire]

I guess it depends from how the rest of the ladies skate. If all, starting from the Russians, USA, Japan, Sweden, Helgesson sisters, Korpi, Zijun, Park skate clean (which I don't think so because some are going to make mistakes) I would put Rika in 15th place.

15th place? Wow... not sure how that's even mathematically possible. Rika made it to the GPF this year, and was on the podium at 4CC. Her scores have been quite a bit higher than the Helgesson sisters and other skaters in the mix. The current field of ladies is not strong enough that a consistently reliable skater this season like Rika could possibly drop that low, unless she has two absolute disaster skates...