Second competition spot for Russian ladies?

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The question is not self-obvious. So far only Gubanova has 2 confirmed spots. So who will get them?

Obviously Sasha Trusova. No comments on that.

But Nastya Gulyakova? She has a silver and a venerable 180+ score. Just a year ago there would be no questions - her second spot would be guaranteed? But now? I understand why she and her coach were dissappointed when the FS score showed up.

Next week we have Gubanova and Tarakanova. They face a more challenging field with Eunsoo Lim and Mako Yamashita. If Nastya Tarakanova is 1-2 with higher than Gulyakova's score she will have the sure precedence over Gulyakova. But even with bronze it is not obvious who will be pushed if she scores 185+.

In Riga there is "Kitty" Fedichkina who can still surprise us and who is the most experienced junior Russian skater now. Also there will be mighty Panenkova there. Yes, Rika Kihira is no joke. But the same logic with 2-3 places and higher scores holds.

Finally, in Minsk there are Samodurova and Konstantinova who do not have second spots either. Well, second spot for Gulyakova does not look as given at this moment which is crazy.

 

[puremagic]

After all thoughts I guess it's too early to think about that after just one JGP. It all will depends on placing. If at each event Russian girls will take 1-2 places - then every girl will get the second spot.

But if not, especially with Rika Kihira, Eun Soo Lim and one Japanese girl, which planning to do a quad jump (where she will skate by the way? I didn't remember her name) - there is many options.

Russian juniors also have very fast and talented skater Viktoria Vasilieva, also Ekaterina Kurakova and well, of course, Elizaveta Nugumanova (but judging by her recent videos, her lutz/flip are still very bad. if even Mishin couldn't fix it - then nobody else).

 

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After all thoughts I guess it's too early to think about that after just one JGP. It all will depends on placing. If at each event Russian girls will take 1-2 places - then every girl will get the second spot.

How? There are only 2 events without assignments, i.e 4 spots. Trusova takes one of those, hence, there are only 3 left for the constellation of "young divas". I think that if the girls are successful Nugumanova who was proclaimed as a prodigy just 2 years ago will not get any JGP spot at all. And there is also Anna Tarusina. Why does Russia have only 14 spots in the first place?

 

[puremagic]

How? There are only 2 events without assignments, i.e 4 spots. Trusova takes one of those, hence, there are only 3 left for the constellation of "young divas". I think that if the girls are successful Nugumanova who was proclaimed as a prodigy just 2 years ago will not get any JGP spot at all. And there is also Anna Tarusina. Why does Russia have only 14 spots in the first place?

Oh, sorry. Seems like I'm bad in math. I started to calculate and I'm confused myself. When I calculated I somehow did it with one mystery GP stage. I forgot to cross out the first GP event! :dumb:

Well, let's start from the beginning:

Australia:
Alexandra Trusova 1st
Nastya Gulyakova 2nd

Austria:
Nastya Gubanova
Nastya Tarakanova

Latvia:
Alisa Fedichkina
Dunya Panenkova

Belarus:
Stanislava Konstantinova
Sofia Samodurova

Croatia:
Nastya Gubanova (second event, ?)
Viktoria Vasilieva (?)

Poland:
?
?

Italy:
?
?

Then it means really only 4 spots. But also may be 5 spots in case of bad skating by Angel. But if Nastya will skate well, then she definitely will book her second spot.
Sasha already booked her spot. Only three spots left. Then each girl who will win next JGP event will get it. And because of that Vika's spot isn't booked.

 

[tars]

That's interesting samkrut! :agree:
Doesn't it also mean that feds need to decide, if they want to:
- give max number of girls a chance in JGP (plus motivate each of them to get max points every time), OR
- get max number of girls into GPF (points not the most important, but optimal placement for the final)?

According to the first tactics, Guliakova might not get a second chance,
to the second - she would get it much more likely.

Am I thinking right? :think:

 

[[email protected]]

That's interesting samkrut! :agree:
Doesn't it also mean that feds need to decide, if they want to:
- give max number of girls a chance in JGP (plus motivate each of them to get max points every time), OR
- get max number of girls into GPF (points not the most important, but optimal placement for the final)?

According to the first tactics, Guliakova might not get a second chance,
to the second - she would get it much more likely.

Am I thinking right? :think:

What I am saying is that if in Austria and Latvia Russian girls are also 1st and 2nd, it will mean that a) if anyone among Konstantinova, Samodurova, and Vasiljeva wins gold or silver, someone with silver in JGP events won't even get the chance for JGPF b) there will be no Nugumanova and Tarusina this year c) chances of Gulyakova for the second spot and JGPF might be not that obvious d) there is a clear oversupply of talented junior ladies in Russia.

 

[Andriellyson]

GUYS, WE MUST REMEMBER PREVIOUS SEASONS!

Reserve russian girls could compete instead official girls on spots! It all depends on podium and scores results, it's hard at this point predicte something beyond!

I'm very sad about Gulyakova's underscored result, but let's wait next competitions!

 

[[email protected]]

GUYS, WE MUST REMEMBER PREVIOUS SEASONS!

Reserve russian girls could compete instead official girls on spots!

It does not work like that this time. Previous seasons "official girls" could lose their second spots after the unsuccessful first attempt. This year when all of them have had just the first attempt there are only 2 competitions left. The only exception is Gubanova who does not have the right for mistakes, for sure

 

[noidont]

Gold and silver medalists would definitely get a second spot. Trusova and Gulyakova are locks. Gubanova and Tarakanova have one or two challengers (Eun so Lim and the Japanese girls). Panenkova and Fedicikina face Rika Kihira who will outscore at least one of them and I think both. Konstantinova and Samodurova don't face much challenge. At this rate I'm thinking Trusova, Gulyakova, Gubanova, Fedickina, Konstantinova and Samodurova two each. Tarakanova and Panenkova one each. If the first 8 girls do manage to sweep 1-2 scores will be compared to decide who gets a second spot. I don't think Nugumanova, Tarusina and Vasileva have much chance to get on the jgp this year.

 

[puremagic]

there is a clear oversupply of talented junior ladies in Russia.

It couldn't be a problem if Stanislava and Alisa went to the seniors, especially in the Olympic season. But nope. :disapp:

Alisa seems to me is a weak link in this chain. She and Dunya will skate with more mature after her first season Rika Kihira with 3A. If Dunya is still slow, then it would be a fight for first place between her and Rika. So probably there will be like:

1. Dunya (Rika)
2. Rika (Dunya)
3. Alisa (or lower)

Also we don't know about Stasya conditions and her psychological stability in this season. She can easy win event, but also she can easy ruin it, like at JWC. Sonya Samodurova is a mystery. We still don't know her real scores. At JPG she was underscored, but at St. Pete Cup one week ago she got 200 points - this is local scores, which are almost always inflated.

Not clear about lutz problems in case of two Nastyas.

So everything could happen. Let's just wait at least the next JGP in Austria and will back to this discussion.

 

[atsumiri]

one Japanese girl, which planning to do a quad jump (where she will skate by the way? I didn't remember her name) - there is many options.

Moa Iwano? i don't really think she is any kind of threat....
her last start... August 03 - 06, 2017 .... well.... was pretty bad... 144 points overall.... Lots of < and <<

 

[tars]

What I am saying is that if in Austria and Latvia Russian girls are also 1st and 2nd, it will mean that a) if anyone among Konstantinova, Samodurova, and Vasiljeva wins gold or silver, someone with silver in JGP events won't even get the chance for JGPF b) there will be no Nugumanova and Tarusina this year c) chances of Gulyakova for the second spot and JGPF might be not that obvious d) there is a clear oversupply of talented junior ladies in Russia.

That's what I'm saying - if feds want 6 Russian girls in JGPF, they have to deprive some others of their chance in JGP.
They have to choose: either maximum number of girls in JGP or maximum number of girls in JGPF.
Can't have both.

 

[Miller]

That's what I'm saying - if feds want 6 Russian girls in JGPF, they have to deprive some others of their chance in JGP.
They have to choose: either maximum number of girls in JGP or maximum number of girls in JGPF.
Can't have both.

Looks like they've compromised and gone for a bit of both.

9 girls already have one slot, and so with 14 entries in total only 5 can get a second and reach the JGPF, but at least 9 skaters have been given their chance to reach the JGPF - can't see them denying Viktoria Vasilieva her chance now that she's been named.

Re 2nd slots, suspect Gubanova has been given hers first because they thought she was the best bet at getting a 1st place finish, but presumably she can be subbed out if she bombs (basically outside the top 2, or even 1). Suspect a similar thing will happen with 6th and 7th JGPs. Entries need to be announced before all the results are known, so would have thought they'll make a best guess at who they might think will win the 3rd and 4th events and put their name forward, along with Trusova. Final slot at 7th event will go to best 2nd place finisher unless Vasilieva were to win the 5th one, while subbing out as above could occur if their predictions for the 3rd and 4th event prove inaccurate.

 

[nikros]

Dunya is not the short version of Daria. Little Daria is Dasha. And Dunya is little Evdokia (different name).
Panenkova Dasha, she is not Dunya.

 

[silverfoxes]

Dunya is not the short version of Daria. Little Daria is Dasha. And Dunya is little Evdokia (different name).
Panenkova Dasha, she is not Dunya.

Thank you, it's very irritating and confusing when someone keeps calling her that, and now to find out it's not even correct...lol

 

[puremagic]

Seems like Gubanova's second spot started to shaking. In the first time when someone said that she fell from the 2A at St. Pete Cup - I thought maybe it's just strange mistake. Because in the last season her axel was gorgeous. But... In this season her axel really became worse. And everytime when I watch her - I'm unsure about her next jump. :sad21:

 

[skatenewbie]

Seems like Gubanova's second spot started to shaking. In the first time when someone said that she fell from the 2A at St. Pete Cup - I thought maybe it's just strange mistake. Because in the last season her axel was gorgeous. But... In this season her axel really became worse. And everytime when I watch her - I'm unsure about her next jump. :sad21:

Let's hope for a clean LP... she does good at that local comp where she place 2nd behind Liza Tuktik and #1 in LP with 141...so her jump arent suffering that much. well she is just inconsistent, but not on her LP though, last season her LP always scored 122+ in all of her comp except Egna Spring Trophy

 

[pororocheburashka]

Is it Anastasia Tarakanova going to the JGP in Zagreb?

 

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Ok, an update after the second event.

Next week we have Fedichkina and Panenkova who will face Rika Kihira. But the rest of the field is unknown to me. Hence, I would assume they will all share the podium.

The week after the next Konstantinova and Samodurova will face Ye Lim Kim and Riko Takino. Both seem to be a moderate threat, hence 1-2 is expected.

After 4 events the likely scenario for the Russian team is 3 golds 3 silvers, and 1 bronze. And there will be only 6 spots left including 1 for Vasilyeva. I would replace Gubanova with either Trusova or Tarakanova as Yamashita who will perform in Croatia can be a threat. She can win over Vasilyeva and Gulyakova and with 3-1 make Gulyakova's JGPF chances very slim even with 2-2. Then the places in the last 2 competitions will be taken by the girls with gold. And there will only 2 more left.

Assuming Kihira wins in Latvia Russian Fed won't challenge her place at JGPF. The key will be to get all other 5 places. The expected minimum is either 3-1 or 2-2. The former is better but it seem only feasible if either Fedichkina or Panenkova have the bronze in Latvia with a high score to be competitive at the last 2 stages. Hence, only the bronze in Latvia with very close podium scores (bronze higher than 190) will give chances for the second competition with Gulyakova out.

Of course, Konstantinova is notoriously inconsistent and the state of Samodurova is unknown. But again, correct me if I am wrong but the field in Minsk is weak so that gold and silver is their to lose.


Conclusions: it is very unlikely that Gubanova will keep her second assignment - the best strategy is to replace her with Trusova or Tarakanova. Gulyakova's chances for the second assignment have become significantly higher but they are not certain yet. After 2 competitions there is already a solid team of Russian JGPF contenders: Trusova, Tarakanova, and Gulyakova. And 5 more are still to come.

 

[skatenewbie]

what matters is consistency. I think the most consistent in having clean skate from next 4 skaters is Panenkova. Fedichkina, Konstantinova and Samodurova is not super consistent so imo its hard to predict