Second competition spot for Russian ladies?

[tjb]

She won senior nationals in 2016, so she has some reputation.

i don't want to be rude, but winning senior nationals in korea is not quite an achievment. i think that being at top 10 at russian or japanese junior nationals is harder than this. but i can understand why koreans think that she's a threat. but if you not from korea and suddenly have seen her skating, she doesn't look all that amazing

 

[ejnsofi]

She won senior nationals in 2016, so she has some reputation.

And this year she was 5th. She also didn't menage to beat Kanysheva in Tallin. Also I watched her performances from July and I wasn't impressed. Her jumps are nothing special and her SS are also average.

 

[[email protected]]

The only theoretical chance to have Russia only JGPF is if Gulyakova is well and wins the second competition or has 2-2 but with the better combined result than Kihira and Lim. There is no Kostornya in this scenario. This theoretical scenario for events 4-7 is:

Trusova, Konstantinova 1,2
Tarakanova, Samodurova 1,2
Gulyakova, Konstantinova 1,2
Samodurova, Panenkova 1,2

Too much to expect, isn't?

If Gulyakova cannot recover from her injury it opens the opportunity for Kostornaya to appear. If Samodurova falters it brings the chance for Kostornaya's second competition in Italy. Without Gulyakova the theoretical maximum is 5 Russians in JGPF with or without Kostornaya.

 

[randomfan]

i don't want to be rude, but winning senior nationals in korea is not quite an achievment. i think that being at top 10 at russian or japanese junior nationals is harder than this. but i can understand why koreans think that she's a threat. but if you not from korea and suddenly have seen her skating, she doesn't look all that amazing

You do sound rude when you made the comparison. I think you're unaware that the competition in Korea is a little more intense than before. Is it a bloodbath there? No, not yet. But even in 2016 there were many strong girls so winning Nationals was still a nice achievement (not as much as winning in another country, but still impressive), especially at such a young age.

Also, I responded because you only saw her as the girl who "landed some quads at the age of 12". I wanted to add that her popularity comes from the fact that she won a competition back then. I myself am not a fan of the hype either, so we're on the same page, but I felt that you should at least know where her reputation came from.

And this year she was 5th. She also didn't menage to beat Kanysheva in Tallin. Also I watched her performances from July and I wasn't impressed. Her jumps are nothing special and her SS are also average.

Again, I only responded to the other person because he/she was mistaken about Young's source of fame. There's no need to be harsh here.

 

[angelicadiablo]

You do sound rude when you made the comparison. I think you're unaware that the competition in Korea is a little more intense than before. Is it a bloodbath there? No, not yet. But even in 2016 there were many strong girls so winning Nationals was still a nice achievement (not as much as winning in another country, but still impressive), especially at such a young age.

Also, I responded because you only saw her as the girl who "landed some quads at the age of 12". I wanted to add that her popularity comes from the fact that she won a competition back then. I myself am not a fan of the hype either, so we're on the same page, but I felt that you should at least know where her reputation came from.



Again, I only responded to the other person because he/she was mistaken about Young's source of fame. There's no need to be harsh here.

Even though she lost to Kanysheva at the Tallin Trophy last year, she got the highest PCS in the LP and SP. She also got good PCS scores in other international competitions as Advanced Novice. So she has reputation with the international judges.

 

[StitchMonkey]

i don't want to be rude, but winning senior nationals in korea is not quite an achievment. i think that being at top 10 at russian or japanese junior nationals is harder than this. but i can understand why koreans think that she's a threat. but if you not from korea and suddenly have seen her skating, she doesn't look all that amazing

South Korea is still a pressure cooker. Lots of hype lots of attention lots of girls that want to make a name for themselves. Yes You Young was fifth this year at Nationals, but that was do to a fall in the SP and other ladies willing and able to capitalize on it. She was second in the free, but it was not enough to overcome the deficit. It is not like she bombed the following year. There were also 35 ladies at the senior event to give you some idea of the scale. You Young and the other South Korean ladies have risen to the top of this pressure cooker... so some of us want to see how they do and follow them... hopefully for years to come.

 

[The Finn]

The only theoretical chance to have Russia only JGPF is if Gulyakova is well and wins the second competition or has 2-2 but with the better combined result than Kihira and Lim. There is no Kostornya in this scenario. This theoretical scenario for events 4-7 is:

Trusova, Konstantinova 1,2
Tarakanova, Samodurova 1,2
Gulyakova, Konstantinova 1,2
Samodurova, Panenkova 1,2

Too much to expect, isn't?

If Gulyakova cannot recover from her injury it opens the opportunity for Kostornaya to appear. If Samodurova falters it brings the chance for Kostornaya's second competition in Italy. Without Gulyakova the theoretical maximum is 5 Russians in JGPF with or without Kostornaya.

It most definitely is way too much to expect but in theory Russia can have Russia only JGPF with Kostornya too. In this scenario they need to replace Samodurova with Gulyakova at the 5th event and then Kostornya can skate at the 6th and 7th event. Samodurova doesn't get any event in this scenario but in theory this could lead all russian JGPF also.

 

[tjb]

You do sound rude when you made the comparison. I think you're unaware that the competition in Korea is a little more intense than before. Is it a bloodbath there? No, not yet. But even in 2016 there were many strong girls so winning Nationals was still a nice achievement (not as much as winning in another country, but still impressive), especially at such a young age.

Also, I responded because you only saw her as the girl who "landed some quads at the age of 12". I wanted to add that her popularity comes from the fact that she won a competition back then. I myself am not a fan of the hype either, so we're on the same page, but I felt that you should at least know where her reputation came from.



Again, I only responded to the other person because he/she was mistaken about Young's source of fame. There's no need to be harsh here.

i'm pretty aware on what's going on in korea, i've watched korean nationals for the past 3 years and i've seen young you skating plenty of times (not only at nationals). she may be popular in korea for whatever reasons, but i still can't understand how someone who is not korean and who follows not only korean skating can so surely put you young above mako yamashita (like kalee did).
i dare to say that mako is no lesser skater than young you.

 

[puremagic]

If Gulyakova cannot recover from her injury it opens the opportunity for Kostornaya to appear. If Samodurova falters it brings the chance for Kostornaya's second competition in Italy. Without Gulyakova the theoretical maximum is 5 Russians in JGPF with or without Kostornaya.

Or if Konstantinova will bomb her JGP as she used to (i saw here the protocol of St. Pete cup, where she got 69 points, but there were -1 and -2 on almost all her jumps, it means she still can't skate clean, and at JGP she'll be punished for that. moreover, in the FS she again popped her jumps, if compare this with Open Moscow Cup, in St. Pete scores were very inflated. nevertheless, Gubanova skated there clean, and what in the end... so, everything is possible, but if Konstatinova will popp her jumps again she definitely will be out), then:

Belarus: Trusova, Konstantinova 1,3(4)
Croatia: Tarakanova, Samodurova 1,2
Poland: Kostornaya, Panenkova 1,2
Italy: Kostornaya, Samodurova/Gulyakova (depending on the one whose result is higher. but considering Gulyakova's injury and her low result, most likely it will be Samodurova)

 

[tjb]

i personally don't see any non-eteri's girls make it to the final. for me the most likely outcome is:

1.)trusova
2.)tarakanova
3.)panenkova
4.)kostornaya
5.)eunsoo
6.)rika

or, if alyona bombs (not so sure about her consistency, since she wasn't consistent before transfering to eteri):


1.)trusova
2.)tarakanova
3.)panenkova
4.)eunsoo
5.)rika
6.)yelim kim

 

[puremagic]

or, if alyona bombs (not so sure about her consistency, since she wasn't consistent before transfering to eteri):

Alena was consistent enough before her injury. Also, Anastasia may have problems. Unlike Alena, at JGP it was her first clean skate ever. 130 points it's very good, but she again will have to face with pressure, so anything can be. The last part of her program with 3F, 2A, 2A looked scary because she was in a hurry. In the last seasons she also had problems with her combos, and at JGP they yet looked insecure.

 

[tjb]

yeah, judging by the previous results, tarakanova also may bomb spectacularly, i don't think that someone ever did not qualify for the final after gold at the first event, but with nastya it may happen.
in a recent interview daniil said that nastya is an excellent performer, but she needs a lot of work to do to make the quality of her jumps decent (so it's not like her clean skate at first jgp was expected). he also said that nastya was banished from almost every practice session. which makes me wonder, how often this kind of punishment applies to the girls in the group

 

[skatenewbie]

JGP Italy have Panenkova and Guliakova, that means 4 girls have 2 assignment. i wonder though if Stasya is off podium then who will take her 2nd JGP. 3 main threat to Russian girls is Yelim, Eunsoo and Kihira. i think at least 2 of them will make it to JGPF. We havent know how Yelim scored though

 

[hanca]

JGP Italy have Panenkova and Guliakova, that means 4 girls have 2 assignment. i wonder though if Stasya is off podium then who will take her 2nd JGP. 3 main threat to Russian girls is Yelim, Eunsoo and Kihira. i think at least 2 of them will make it to JGPF. We havent know how Yelim scored though

Five girls have two - Trusova, Tarakanova, Panenkova , Guliakova and Konstantinova. And if Konstantinova messes up her first assignment, I think they will take her second one away and give it to Samodurova or Kostornaya, so it still will be fine Russian girls having two assignments.

 

[AlexRus]

Also, Anastasia may have problems. Unlike Alena, at JGP it was her first clean skate ever.

Tarakanova had absolutely clean skate at Nationals Elder Age 2017. All positive GOE (all judges for all elements - GOE from +1 to +3), all non-jumping elements Level 4 (except StSq3 at FS). And she won Trusova there.
At Nationals Younger Age she won both Trusova and Scherbakova.
She won both these competitions.

 

[puremagic]

Tarakanova had absolutely clean skate at Nationals Elder Age 2017. All positive GOE (all judges for all elements - GOE from +1 to +3), all non-jumping elements Level 4 (except StSq3 at FS). And she won Trusova there.
At Nationals Younger Age she won both Trusova and Scherbakova.
She won both these competitions.

It was after moving to Eteri or before?

 

[AlexRus]

It was after moving to Eteri or before?

Before. 3-4 April 2017.

 

[Chemistry66]

Five girls have two - Trusova, Tarakanova, Panenkova , Guliakova and Konstantinova. And if Konstantinova messes up her first assignment, I think they will take her second one away and give it to Samodurova or Kostornaya, so it still will be fine Russian girls having two assignments.

If Konstantinova loses her second assignment, they may have to shift Guliakova or Panenkova to POL. in her place. Kostornaya is already in POL and can only be assigned ITA as a second assignment due to substitute lists, and if they give Samudorova the vacated spot they want to avoid having her in CRO and POL consecutively (since they can avoid that with her even if they can't with Kostornaya).

Then again, Konstantinova still has to skate in BLR. This will all be moot if she does well there.

 

[Chemistry66]

If Konstantinova loses her second assignment, they may have to shift Guliakova or Panenkova to POL. in her place. Kostornaya is already in POL and can only be assigned ITA as a second assignment due to substitute lists, and if they give Samudorova the vacated spot they want to avoid having her in CRO and POL consecutively (since they can avoid that with her even if they can't with Kostornaya).

Then again, Konstantinova still has to skate in BLR. This will all be moot if she does well there.

Panenkova has apparently been shifted to Poland now. Maybe. She's still listed for Italy but also listed for Poland. I imagine she's shifted, because it makes sense to do that and then give her Italy spot to whichever of Konstantinova/Samodurova/Kostornaya earns it the most.

 

[[email protected]]

Allright, what do we have now? Trusova is in with 1+1 and then, then it is not clear even with just 3 events left. Next week we shall have the second event of Tarakanova and the first one of Samodurova. And we have one slot out of remaining 4 filled by the winner in Riga Panenkova. Only 3 left.

Kostornaya - an amazing talent but she needs 2 slots. Too expensive, isn't it?
Gulyakova - just won a local competition with yet another clean programs. 2nd place with 180+ score in Brisbane with the most strict panel so far. Good chances.
Samodurova - she has to win or get a silver with 185+
Stasya - the last in my pecking order because just a bronze.

Scenarios:

The main question is if Kostornaya is going to get a chance no matter what or not.

If yes,

1. Samodurova wins or second with 190+. She gets the second assignment. Then if Kostornaya shines in Poland, Italy will be Samodurova + Kostornaya. Otherwise, Samodurova + Gulyakova.

2. Samodurova bombs. Then if Kostornaya shines in Poland, Italy will be Kostornaya + Gulyakova. Otherwise, Konstantinova + Gulyakova

3. Samodurova is unclear: second or third place with 180-185. Kostornaya is unclear: second or third place with 180-185. The most difficult scenario, whom to pick as Gulyakova, Samodurova, Kostornaya, Konstantinova will all have similar chances for the last two spots. I think the Fed will go with Gulyakova or Konstantinova if this scenario happens.

If no, which only happens is Samodurova shines and gets the second assignment, then there are 2 slots which will be filled by Konstantinova and Gulyakova. Very easy.