Second competition spot for Russian ladies?

[puremagic]

Allright, what do we have now? Trusova is in with 1+1 and then, then it is not clear even with just 3 events left. Next week we shall have the second event of Tarakanova and the first one of Samodurova. And we have one slot out of remaining 4 filled by the winner in Riga Panenkova. Only 3 left.

Kostornaya - an amazing talent but she needs 2 slots. Too expensive, isn't it?
Gulyakova - just won a local competition with yet another clean programs. 2nd place with 180+ score in Brisbane with the most strict panel so far. Good chances.
Samodurova - she has to win or get a silver with 185+
Stasya - the last in my pecking order because just a bronze.

Scenarios:

The main question is if Kostornaya is going to get a chance no matter what or not.

If yes,

1. Samodurova wins or second with 190+. She gets the second assignment. Then if Kostornaya shines in Poland, Italy will be Samodurova + Kostornaya. Otherwise, Samodurova + Gulyakova.

2. Samodurova bombs. Then if Kostornaya shines in Poland, Italy will be Kostornaya + Gulyakova. Otherwise, Konstantinova + Gulyakova

3. Samodurova is unclear: second or third place with 180-185. Kostornaya is unclear: second or third place with 180-185. The most difficult scenario, whom to pick as Gulyakova, Samodurova, Kostornaya, Konstantinova will all have similar chances for the last two spots. I think the Fed will go with Gulyakova or Konstantinova if this scenario happens.

If no, which only happens is Samodurova shines and gets the second assignment, then there are 2 slots which will be filled by Konstantinova and Gulyakova. Very easy.

Or Samodurova will take 2-3 place (no matter), and rusfed will send Stasya to Poland and Sonya to Italy. The worst option. But I won't be surprise of that.

 

[PiggytailProdigy]

in a recent interview daniil said that nastya is an excellent performer, but she needs a lot of work to do to make the quality of her jumps decent (so it's not like her clean skate at first jgp was expected). he also said that nastya was banished from almost every practice session. which makes me wonder, how often this kind of punishment applies to the girls in the group

sorry but what does this exactly mean? like she got banished because she behaves badly or is it because she is inconsistent with her jumps? and where is that interview from?

 

[tjb]

sorry but what does this exactly mean? like she got banished because she behaves badly or is it because she is inconsistent with her jumps? and where is that interview from?

i guess he mean that she got banished because of inconsistency. here's what he said
https://zubakovsport.com/00000439/

 

[Spirals for Miles]

I'd take it as a transitional issue, since it seems like it was more adjusting to the rigors of Eteri's group than inconsistency. But who knows? And also, banishment is just being sent to work amongst the younger skaters. :cool2:

 

[hanca]

i guess he mean that she got banished because of inconsistency. here's what he said
https://zubakovsport.com/00000439/

It doesn't say that she was banished ‘because of inconsistency’. She struggled to follow some rules, whatever the rules were. Maybe she wasn’t working hard enough, or maybe she tried to chat too much, or maybe she wasn’t looking around when someone’s run through their program and got into his/her way...there can be hundreds of reasons.

 

[tjb]

It doesn't say that she was banished ‘because of inconsistency’. She struggled to follow some rules, whatever the rules were. Maybe she wasn’t working hard enough, or maybe she tried to chat too much, or maybe she wasn’t looking around when someone’s run through their program and got into his/her way...there can be hundreds of reasons.

he said nothing about the rules. he said that he hopes that anastasia is starting to understand what they demand from athletes in the group, because she often got banished from training sessions, and right after that he starts to talk about nastya's consistency. so i'm assumed that may be consistency is what they demand. but it's really hard to tell

 

[hanca]

he said nothing about the rules. he said that he hopes that anastasia is starting to understand what they demand from athletes in the group, because she often got banished from training sessions, and right after that he starts to talk about nastya's consistency. so i'm assumed that may be consistency is what they demand. but it's really hard to tell

Well, that’s the same. To me it implies that she had some difficulty with adjusting to this group because it took her time to get used to ‘what they demand from skaters’. So I think this remark was more connected the the adjusting. When you get into a new group, what does adjusting exactly mean? Different way to work, different rules to follow...

 

[hanca]

It seems that Guliakova’s chances for second spot have just decreased significantly. Samodurova won this event, which means she will very likely get second spot, probably at the last event. Next week it is Kostornaya and Panenkova. If Kostornaya places well, it will be the choice between her and Guliakova for the last event. All Kostornaya needs to do is either to win, or place second but with score higher than Guliakova’s score. It is sad that there are so many great skaters that someone with second place from her first event may not get a second spot.

 

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Samodurova's second spot is guaranteed same as Panenkova's. I just can't see a scenario when a winner does not get the second assignment as even her 3rd place (like Tarakanova) moves her to the final: 1+3 is better than 2+2.

Then just 2 spots are left. There are 2 scenarios: with Kostornaya and without.

With Kostornaya:

Poland: Panenkova, Kostornaya
Italy: Samodurova, Kostornaya/Gulyakova

Without Kostornaya:

Poland: Panenkova, Konstantinova
Italy: Samodurova, Gulyakova


The scenario without Kostornaya keeps the chance of Russia only JGPF: Trusova, Tarakanova, Konstantinova, Panenkova, Samodurova, Gulyakova. The scenario with Kostornaya reduces the theoretical maximum to 5. Which way will the FED go, I wonder?

It is amazing that even after 5 events nothing is clear on who will get the second spot.

 

[puremagic]

Samodurova's second spot is guaranteed same as Panenkova's. I just can't see a scenario when a winner does not get the second assignment as even her 3rd place (like Tarakanova) moves her to the final: 1+3 is better than 2+2.

Then just 2 spots are left. There are 2 scenarios: with Kostornaya and without.

With Kostornaya:

Poland: Panenkova, Kostornaya
Italy: Samodurova, Kostornaya/Gulyakova

Without Kostornaya:

Poland: Panenkova, Konstantinova
Italy: Samodurova, Gulyakova


The scenario without Kostornaya keeps the chance of Russia only JGPF: Trusova, Tarakanova, Konstantinova, Panenkova, Samodurova, Gulyakova. The scenario without Kostornaya reduces the theoretical maximum to 5. Which way will the FED go, I wonder?

It is amazing that even after 5 events nothing is clear on who will get the second spot.

It would be super sad and funny if RusFed will go all-in and put Stanislava instead of Alena, and then, JapFed will move Rika or/and Nana to Poland. Also there is Eunsoo with 13 points.

 

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It would be super sad and funny if RusFed will go all-in and put Stanislava instead of Alena, and then, JapFed will move Rika or/and Nana to Poland. Also there is Eunsoo with 13 points.

If Konstantinova is clean she can score big. Her combined pcs with many mistakes was 87. Trusova had 83, Kihira 84. If Konstantinova is clean with her current content she can have 39+29 in the short and 71+59 in the long. This means 198. She can win over everyone with this score unless Kihira brings 2 clean 3As in the long which is so far just a theoretical assumption as we have never seen it yet. Of course, we have never seen clean Stasya as well. But I would still give her a chance, otherwise, it will be hard to see te next step in her career.

But I would be happy as well to see Alyona's debut. Then whatever the Fed decides for Poland, I am fine with that decision.

 

[madison]

If Konstantinova is clean she can score big. Her combined pcs with many mistakes was 87. Trusova had 83, Kihira 84. If Konstantinova is clean with her current content she can have 39+29 in the short and 71+59 in the long. This means 198. She can win over everyone with this score unless Kihira brings 2 clean 3As in the long which is so far just a theoretical assumption as we have never seen it yet. Of course, we have never seen clean Stasya as well. But I would still give her a chance, otherwise, it will be hard to see te next step in her career.

But I would be happy as well to see Alyona's debut. Then whatever the Fed decides for Poland, I am fine with that decision.

Of course she has better PCS, despite her poor posture and strange movements, because she is 17 years old and she looks more 'womanly', but I wouldn't give her any chance any time soon. She had 2 JGP events last season+ participation in the Junior Worlds and she didn't capitalize any of that.
I think Alena deserves better this spot, at least if we think to their chances in the future.

 

[Chemistry66]

So after the SP, Alena Kostornaia is in 1st. If she holds up in the FS, Italy will be her and Samodurova. If she drops to 2nd, I assume it'd be whichever has the highest score? Sad to think that Guliakova might not even end up with a second event after getting a silver.

 

[The Finn]

So after the SP, Alena Kostornaia is in 1st. If she holds up in the FS, Italy will be her and Samodurova. If she drops to 2nd, I assume it'd be whichever has the highest score? Sad to think that Guliakova might not even end up with a second event after getting a silver.

Nastia G has already been replaced by Samodurova. Vasilieva is still holding the other spot.

 

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How it worked this year - it can make a page in the history of figure skating:

Alexandra Trusova got the second spot after winning in Brisbane
Anastasia Tarakanova got the second spot after winning in Saltzburg
Daria Panenkova got the second spot after winning in Riga
Sofia Samodurova got the second spot after winning in Zagreb
Alena Kostornaya got the second spot after winning in Gdansk

"Casualties"

Anastasia Gulyakova - second place
Stasya Konstantinova - third place
Anastasia Gubanova - fourth place
Alisa Fedichkina - fourth place

 

[hanca]

How it worked this year - it can make a page in the history of figure skating:

Alexandra Trusova got the second spot after winning in Brisbane
Anastasia Tarakanova got the second spot after winning in Saltzburg
Daria Panenkova got the second spot after winning in Riga
Sofia Samodurova got the second spot after winning in Zagreb
Alena Kostornaya got the second spot after winning in Gdansk

"Casualties"

Anastasia Gulyakova - second place
Stasya Konstantinova - third place
Anastasia Gubanova - fourth place
Alisa Fedichkina - fourth place

Well, maybe Guliakova shouldn’t hold back next time. If she has the triple axel, she should have used it because otherwise there may not be another chance. Especially if her first event was against a girl who has a quad.

 

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Well, maybe Guliakova shouldn’t hold back next time. If she has the triple axel, she should have used it because otherwise there may not be another chance. Especially if her first event was against a girl who has a quad.

Who knew? This situation never happened before. Although Gulyakova was very disappointed after seeing her score in K&C. Still no matter what score she had got the second place would not have been enough. The two "lucky" ladies are Panenkova and Samodurova as the favorites faltered and they managed to win with mistakes and relatively low scores.

 

[The Finn]

Who knew? This situation never happened before. Although Gulyakova was very disappointed after seeing her score in K&C. Still no matter what score she had got the second place would not have been enough. The two "lucky" ladies are Panenkova and Samodurova as the favorites faltered and they managed to win with mistakes and relatively low scores.

It sounds so funny to me that a score very close to a 188 points is a "relatively low score" for some people. Then what do you call 175 points? or 165 points? A score above 185 points is good score at any junior event, it is not a great score but it is still a good score.

 

[The Finn]

I wonder how it will be next year, will someone score a "relatively low score" of 195 points, gets only a silver at her 1st JGP event and doesn't get a 2nd JGP event.

Next season should be even more interesting than this season because most of the JGP winners of this season will be back and also Anna will make her JGP debut. And who knows who else will make her JGP debut next season.

 

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It sounds so funny to me that a score very close to a 188 points is a "relatively low score" for some people. Then what do you call 175 points? or 165 points? A score above 185 points is good score at any junior event, it is not a great score but it is still a good score.

Everything should be looked at in context. 201 is a good score for juniors. In fact it was the second best score ever. Still it was not enough for Marin to win JWC because Alina had 207. 188 might be a good score but who would care if Kihira were clean with 2 3As scoring around 200? And it is quite safe to say that Samodurova was lucky to win trailing behind Tarakanova who scored 196 just 2 weeks ago with the free score of 130 vs. Sofia's 125. Yes, they deserved to win but they were lucky unlike Trusova and Tarakanova who were dominant at their events.