Which man will win (and medal) at Worlds?

[Skater Boy]

Well I still believe in Nathan. We are in a era or at least worlds where we have no top pc skater. Shoma is the best and maybe Kolyada are both pretty good but they are no Lambiel, Buttle or Chan or even next tier Hanyu. We accept the quad thrust will cost some beauty but this group at world's are a couple of level lower and truly even those who say Chen for example has great artistry the quads do create a price to pay pc wise -whether shown in the score or not.

The door is open for Shoma, Nathan and Boyang. As for Max well honestly with so much quad focus and the artistic skaters if you call them that gone - Brown, Chan and Rippon with Ten really no longer in the race he does have a good chance.

 

[eaglehelang]

Firstly, it's Nathan's second senior season. Secondly has proven big match mentality - beating out Hanyu/Uno/Chan/Jin at an ISU championship (4CC 2016). Beating all the guys but Hanyu in his first GPF trip (winning the FS at that), and winning the GPF 2017 .... unless of course you don't consider an ISU championship or the GPF as big ticket events!

He has literally had two big ticket events - senior Worlds in his first season, and the Olympics in his second season - where he didn't deliver as he could have. That's not a huge sample size to dismiss him as not having big event mentality.

I am not dismissing Nathan, just you all are overhyping him. Yuzuru was Worlds bronze medalist at 17, Boyang Jin bronze at 18, Shoma silver at 19 and Olympic silver at 20. They were not hyped as the next great thing even after they were Worlds medalist

Majors as far as many sports are concerned is : Worlds and Olympics for Olympic sports. Non Olympic sport depending, for us Asians, its Asian Games cos its every 4 yrs.
GPF is not majors across different sports. Athletes are remembered as World medalist or Olympic medalist. Everything else is a footnote.

My countryman, a very accomplished badmintan player, has never won any of these 3 majors in 15 yrs. He has 3 Olympic silvers, multiple world silvers, Asian Games silvers. He has won LOTS of GPF tournaments. BUT because he has never won the majors he is dubbed as mr 2nd place, no big match mentality.

Thus far, Nathan has crumbled at WC 2017 and 2018 OG Team and Individual SP. Let the kid medal first, give him space

 

[karne]

So let's just not set up any unduly high expectations and simply say: "Wow, Max is fortunate to get to go to Worlds right now. He could be up for a good finish. Everyone send him your support! We can't wait to see how he goes!"

Which...is almost exactly what I have been saying ever since the news came out. :sarcasm:

 

[evangeline]

All good points but Chen has executed all 5 quads - and done each of them in multiple instances. And has done 5 quads in a freeskate - and almost did 6 - which makes his base value considerably above the difficulty Hanyu attempts (his BV at the Olympics was almost 12 points higher than Hanyu's Worlds 2017 FS). Hanyu has "only" ever done 4 quads and none of them in that FS were harder than a loop. Hanyu's quad loop when landed is great but it's not as consistent as Chen's flip or lutz - both of which are harder to execute. Unless Hanyu gets the full set of quads (or a quad axel), lands a 4Z reliably - preferably more controlled than the one at COR, and/or is capable of executing a 5-quad freeskate, Chen will have the edge in jumping ability and thus athleticism, IMO.

Well, I think you're unnecessarily conflating jumping ability with jump difficulty. Sure, it's undeniable Chen goes for more types of quads than Hanyu and has a higher BV, but doesn't jump quality factor into an evaluation of jumping ability too? Because jump quality is where Hanyu definitely has the edge--there's a reason why Hanyu racks up the TES despite having fewer quads. I've seen Hanyu and Chen live (even back to back!) and I can't emphasize enough how much better Hanyu's jumps are in person over Chen's--they're entered into with more speed, exited with more flow, more effortless throughout, and often done with much more difficult transitions in and out. Basically, I just don't think that jump difficulty is necessarily the be-all and end-all of jumping ability; I prefer a more well-rounded approach than takes into account both quality and quantity.

To use another example, I don't think it's unreasonable to think that Fernandez has the edge in jumping ability over Uno even though Fernandez has maxed out at the 4S while Uno goes for the 4Lo and 4F. Fernandez's relatively easier jumps are more than compensated by his superior jumping technique and jump quality compared to Uno. Ditto for Osmond over someone like Medvedeva.

 

[Lester]

To be honest, I am rooting for Boyang It would be a super exciting outcome.

I am a great fan of Shoma but I hope he fixes his tech issues before he is given titles.

I also love Nathan but I am fearful of him imploding again.

 

[Farnaz]

1. Some good soul please create a thread called "If Nathan ..." and let some specific users take all their statements there. Every single thread is turning to this endless discussion of finding an if that proves Nathan is better than Hanyu.

2. This thread is called "Which man will win (and medal) at Worlds?" and I swear to GOD Hanyu is not going to the Worlds so why these discussions?

3. Another thread is called "Yuzu's future" and again what it has to do with Nathan's past? Why we see these discussions there?

4. I'm screaming "Olympic is done, get over it". Send your positive energy and wishes for your favourites in the worlds without trying to diminish other people's favourite please.

 

[Tolstoj]

Nathan Chen.

He was my pick for the gold medal at the Olympics.

It's time for redemption

 

[Li'Kitsu]

Well, I think you're unnecessarily conflating jumping ability with jump difficulty. Sure, it's undeniable Chen goes for more types of quads than Hanyu and has a higher BV, but doesn't jump quality factor into an evaluation of jumping ability too? Because jump quality is where Hanyu definitely has the edge--there's a reason why Hanyu racks up the TES despite having fewer quads. I've seen Hanyu and Chen live (even back to back!) and I can't emphasize enough how much better Hanyu's jumps are in person over Chen's--they're entered into with more speed, exited with more flow, more effortless throughout, and often done with much more difficult transitions in and out. Basically, I just don't think that jump difficulty is necessarily the be-all and end-all of jumping ability; I prefer a more well-rounded approach than takes into account both quality and quantity.

To use another example, I don't think it's unreasonable to think that Fernandez has the edge in jumping ability over Uno even though Fernandez has maxed out at the 4S while Uno goes for the 4Lo and 4F. Fernandez's relatively easier jumps are more than compensated by his superior jumping technique and jump quality compared to Uno. Ditto for Osmond over someone like Medvedeva.

Great post, and just to add: Yuzus jumps are also significantly bigger then Nathans (same for Javi and Shoma).
Nathan has the most difficulty in his jumps, and that deserves tremendous respect, but I'd prefer more quality too. And that is another reason why I love Boyang - difficult jumps too including the 4Lz, but he's got more quality on them (and also seems to still work on improving that aspect). If I'd have to name the single most amazing quad out there right now, it would be Boyangs monstrous Lutz

(also, if Yuzu really goes out there and lands that 4A... I can't wait for the amazing arguments as to why there is still no way he's the best athlete/jumper/whatever. How much fun would that be? )

 

[Kelly]

Nathan Chen.

He was my pick for the gold medal at the Olympics.

It's time for redemption

He was also Jackie Wong's pick for the gold before the men's SP competition at the Olympics.
But go Nathan! Wish you get a world medal, preferably it's a Gold!:dance2:

 

[Farnaz]

He was also Jackie Wong's pick for the gold before the men's SP competition at the Olympics.
But go Nathan! Wish you get a world medal, preferably it's a Gold!:dance2:

This is it, no one gets irritated when you are so positive about your own favorite, many many thanks I also hope Nathan has a successful Worlds competition and establishes himself on the road to Beijing 2022 :agree:

 

[plushyfan]

1. Nathan
2. Shoma
3. Boyang

 

[charlotte14]

Well, I think you're unnecessarily conflating jumping ability with jump difficulty. Sure, it's undeniable Chen goes for more types of quads than Hanyu and has a higher BV, but doesn't jump quality factor into an evaluation of jumping ability too? Because jump quality is where Hanyu definitely has the edge--there's a reason why Hanyu racks up the TES despite having fewer quads. I've seen Hanyu and Chen live (even back to back!) and I can't emphasize enough how much better Hanyu's jumps are in person over Chen's--they're entered into with more speed, exited with more flow, more effortless throughout, and often done with much more difficult transitions in and out. Basically, I just don't think that jump difficulty is necessarily the be-all and end-all of jumping ability; I prefer a more well-rounded approach than takes into account both quality and quantity.

To use another example, I don't think it's unreasonable to think that Fernandez has the edge in jumping ability over Uno even though Fernandez has maxed out at the 4S while Uno goes for the 4Lo and 4F. Fernandez's relatively easier jumps are more than compensated by his superior jumping technique and jump quality compared to Uno. Ditto for Osmond over someone like Medvedeva.

I was there at Moscow CoR. Your description is spot on. Nathan does have variety of quads but the quality of his jumps were quite below the other guys. Hanyu, Kolyada, even Moris... had better speed, flow, height and ice coverage than Nathan in their jumps.
And the skating skill is obviously differnet. There is a huge gap among them. When I watched their practice I turned aroud to see my friend Mag and her commented was like: "You see it, don't you? Nathan's skating is quite choppy." And her uses of words is so much spot on the uneasy feeling I have with Nathan's skating (and landing edge too). Nathan's knee and ankle are stiff, like there's a cast keeping his feet from flexing around.

Back to the men, the field is so unpredictable it would be fun if Kolyada medals here. That's what my heart wants as I saw his much potential yet he has not delivered. I really hope to see him delivering at least once.

 

[nguyhm]

Well, I think you're unnecessarily conflating jumping ability with jump difficulty. Sure, it's undeniable Chen goes for more types of quads than Hanyu and has a higher BV, but doesn't jump quality factor into an evaluation of jumping ability too? Because jump quality is where Hanyu definitely has the edge--there's a reason why Hanyu racks up the TES despite having fewer quads. I've seen Hanyu and Chen live (even back to back!) and I can't emphasize enough how much better Hanyu's jumps are in person over Chen's--they're entered into with more speed, exited with more flow, more effortless throughout, and often done with much more difficult transitions in and out. Basically, I just don't think that jump difficulty is necessarily the be-all and end-all of jumping ability; I prefer a more well-rounded approach than takes into account both quality and quantity.

I agree with all the factors that you mentioned. However I think that at the time when Hanyu learned/performed his quads there was not a large "threat" of existing and/or upcoming quads jumpers - Patrick only had quad toe, as well as Javi adding Quad Sal (I'm not sure if Javi's quad Sal preceeded Hanyu or not). Hanyu "had" time to perfect his quads. Then came Boyang with Quad Lutz and Shoma with Quad Flip then came Nathan. In order to catch up Nathan had to learn his quads "in a hurry" so let's give credits where credits are due.... it's pretty awesome what he has been able to accomplish. Is it to be recommended, probably not. Is it to be "glorified", probably not but not deserving to be bashed either.... There's no denying that once the Quad Lutz's "threat" appeared, guess who jumped on the bandwagon - Hanyu had to do it and look what happened. It all has been a Quad race - some win and some lose. However they're all great and let celebrate them all instead of comparing and glorifying your favorites at the expense of the ones you don't like. Some prefer quality and some prefer quantity - it's hard to say what's right and what's wrong.
Go Nathan and Shoma, any order on the podium will make me happy.

 

[Li'Kitsu]

I agree with all the factors that you mentioned. However I think that at the time when Hanyu learned/performed his quads there was not a large "threat" of existing and/or upcoming quads jumpers - Patrick only had quad toe, as well as Javi adding Quad Sal (I'm not sure if Javi's quad Sal preceeded Hanyu or not). Hanyu "had" time to perfect his quads. Then came Boyang with Quad Lutz and Shoma with Quad Flip then came Nathan. In order to catch up Nathan had to learn his quads "in a hurry" so let's give credits where credits are due.... it's pretty awesome what he has been able to accomplish. Is it to be recommended, probably not. Is it to be "glorified", probably not but not deserving to be bashed either.... There's no denying that once the Quad Lutz's "threat" appeared, guess who jumped on the bandwagon - Hanyu had to do it and look what happened. It all has been a Quad race - some win and some lose. However they're all great and let celebrate them all instead of comparing and glorifying your favorites at the expense of the ones you don't like. Some prefer quality and some prefer quantity - it's hard to say what's right and what's wrong.
Go Nathan and Shoma, any order on the podium will make me happy.

Uhm... Nathan was already attempting a high number of quads in Juniors, and Yuzu surely didn't hop on any bandwagon - he was practicing the big quads before the "quad race" started, and said before he wants to attempt them (including 4A). And funny enough Boyang hasn't included any new quads since in seniors, instead taking his time to focus on other aspects. Javi - who basically flipped the bird on the "quad race" - just got himself an Olympic medal. While I agree noone should be bashed, there are several factors playing into this "quad race" and your depiction of events is IMO not very close to what happened - noone is forced to add quads left and right as soon as possible. There are several ways to win, and going for quads is these guys' choice. All of them.

 

[Ladskater]

I have to go with Shoma - Gold, Boyang - Silver and ? Bronze

 

[lappo]

Uhm... Nathan was already attempting a high number of quads in Juniors, and Yuzu surely didn't hop on any bandwagon - he was practicing the big quads before the "quad race" started, and said before he wants to attempt them (including 4A). And funny enough Boyang hasn't included any new quads since in seniors, instead taking his time to focus on other aspects. Javi - who basically flipped the bird on the "quad race" - just got himself an Olympic medal. While I agree noone should be bashed, there are several factors playing into this "quad race" and your depiction of events is IMO not very close to what happened - noone is forced to add quads left and right as soon as possible. There are several ways to win, and going for quads is these guys' choice. All of them.

I think he only tried 4T and 4S in junior. Here is part of the interview he and Shoma did on this matter:

Question: Through the beneficial rivalry, you two are now able to land many types of quads. How do you perceive each other’s quads?

Nathan: We both learned quads in a very short timespan. But the reason why I became able to land quads in a matter of 1 to 2 years was because Shoma landed one, which made me think, “I can do this too”. We have completely different body types, but it’s nice to see us both being able to do the same types of quads stably.

Shoma: When I first landed my 4F, I didn’t even think about challenging more quads. I didn’t think everyone would start landing these different types of quads so soon, so at the following NHK Trophy, when I heard that Nathan landed a 4Lz and a 4F, I wondered, “Is that actually true??” But then I did see that he was landing them very stably, and that changed my mindset into thinking, “I can do more”, and not just be satisfied after learning a couple of new things.

Question; What do you think of Boyang Jin, the other challenger of quads in your generation?

Nathan: He is pushing the sport with an incredible force. I’ve watched him since we were juniors, and he was already landing three quads in the FS when I was just starting to land my 3As. By seeing that, I decided to seriously challenge the 4T and the 4S. The increase in skaters who land quads has been drastic, and of course there’s Yuzu. Boyang’s lutz gave me motivation, and Shoma’s flip made me want to challenge it. It’s cool that we get so influenced by each others’ jumps.

S: I also wouldn’t have challenged the 4F if it weren’t for Boyang’s 4Lz. I think people are quite influenced by their emotions. When someone lands a new jump, the thought of, “Oh, this is a jump that can be landed”, and also the thought of “Nobody’s landed this before so I want to challenge it” are very important. Seeing Boyang easily land the 4Lz was an inspiration for me.

 

[Danibellerika]

I think he only tried 4T and 4S in junior.

Didn't Nate do 4 of them in a program though? When he was doing that Michael Jackson program? And then he was supposed to go to junior and senior worlds that year but ended up needing hip surgery?

 

[lappo]

Didn't Nate do 4 of them in a program though? When he was doing that Michael Jackson program? And then he was supposed to go to junior and senior worlds that year but ended up needing hip surgery?

Yes. He had 4S+2T+2L; 4S; 4T+2T; 4T in his 2015/6 program; but for example Boyang Jin had a four quads program too in the very same year at Worlds, with two 4T a 4S and the 4L.
And yes, Nathan got injuried at the Gala, had hip operation and was out for the entire period from January to mid summer; then he resumed and he worked with the flip and lutz.

 

[Old Cat Lady]

And then he was supposed to go to junior and senior worlds that year but ended up needing hip surgery?

He's already had hip surgery Better get that world title in. who knows if he'll make it to 2022.

I think it'll be
1. Shoma
2. Nathan
3. Jin

 

[Danibellerika]

He's already had hip surgery Better get that world title in. who knows if he'll make it to 2022.

I think it'll be
1. Shoma
2. Nathan
3. Jin

Well it sort of feels like they made him better than before .