Who can defeat the Russian Women in 2021-22?

[figureskatingandrainbows]

Kaori's working on a 3A and 4T for next year. If she gets those to be fairly stable, she's the biggest threat in my opinion. She's one of the few ladies who doesn't UR easily, she has excellent skating skills and performance, and earns huge GOE on a lot of her jumps. Plus, she seems to have pretty good mental fortitude. I know Rika is the favorite in Japan right now, but Kaori could easily unseat her if she boosts her technical.

Alysa also has loads of potential. She recently got her 3A back and is improving in the PCS category. And she is so strong to put up with all the pressure on her as a 14-year-old girl.

I also have hope for Rika. She could've just had an off year this season, and I'm sure the pandemic isn't making things easy for her. Perhaps some more competitions next season will help.

 

[Samoyed]

Kaori's working on a 3A and 4T for next year. If she gets those to be fairly stable, she's the biggest threat in my opinion.

As much as I would like this to happen I think it is pretty unlikely to happen over the summer. It takes time even for young, Russian ladies to learn quads and make them stable. I don't believe that time that's left for Olympics would be enough for Kaori or even for Rika's second quad.

 

[macy]

I thought Valieva's quads were pretty stable?

As for giving the Russians a run for their money, unless Kihira is on top of her game, I'd think anyone else has an outside chance at best at this point.

Then again what do I know? I honestly thought the World Championships was going to be a Kihira VS Shcherbakova VS Trusova 3 way shootout.

they are, she's been hitting them all season and in the Eteri shows. i'd definitely say she has the most consistent (and best executed) quads of the ladies by far.

 

[yume]

Comparison Thread

There was a discussion on RLT about who will dominate the next GP season.

If we think about it as Russians vs. The Rest

There's:

Valieva, Shcherbakova, Trusova, Tuktamysheva, Kostornaia, Khromykh, Usacheva

Vs.

Kihira, Sakamoto, Young You, Alysa Liu, Amber Glenn, Bradie Tennell, anyone else?

No one.

- Sakamoto gets close to max GOEs + uncalled flutzes + over 35 and 70 PCS only in Japan. You can look at her judges' scores from the past 2-3 seasons, she never got that outside Japan. I don't believe in her getting 4T or 3A. Her jumps are impressive because of distance not height, they aren't that high. I don't think she can increase the height that much or rotation speed, especially without sacrificing her consistency.
- I would be surprised to see Rika with high pcs and GOEs next season even if she's consistent. Her GOEs and PCS were always quarantined against Russians. The only exception is 2018 gpf. With that last bombing JSF will probably support her even less than what they were already doing. She should go back to Kyoto and train only with Tamura.
- Young is able to get nice scores. Clean with three 3As she can reach 230 but the new normal will be 245-250.
- Amber Glenn won't become super consistent out of the blue to get those high GOEs and PCS. Clean, her max is between 220-230. She isn't n.1 of her country to get podiums with unclean skates like Osmond.
- Liu have to expect some intense politicking to get away with the calls that her jumps will probably deserve.

So no one, unless there are some injuries or the comeback of 2007-2010 savage judging.

 

[silveruskate]

Everyone's talking about the top, but wait a second. It isn't just about the Gold medals. And in the GP series the skaters are facing only 2 of those names in each competition.

Where will the silver medals go?

Doesn't have to be beating ALL the Russians. But where do the Rest fit in with the Russian ranks?

 

[icybear]

I wouldnt be suprised if there's a non Russian on the olympic podium after all there are only going to be 3 Russian in the olympics. I know they swept the podium in Worlds but they were lucky to get silver and bronze because the rest of the skaters bombed. Elizaveta won silver with 220. Skaters that scored over that in the past: are Rika, Kaori, Bradie, Satoko, You Young. So it wasnt like the Russians won all because they skated programs that were unreachable for others to score ahead of

 

[jenaj]

If the team is Anna, Sasha and Kamila, they will be difficult to beat. Look at how Sasha pulled up at Worlds to a bronze after a disastrous short program. And she did it with two falls in her long program. Kamila has quads and a 3A. No one can beat that if she completes her elements. Anna won Worlds with a big score without clean quads or a 3A. It's unclear if she still has a reliable quad. Rika theoretically could challenge her but only if she has a consistent 3A. Alysa Liu is question mark. She will need a 3A and a quad to have a chance at the podium.

 

[Imagine]

If it's a really bad day for the quad-jumping Russians, maybe Kihira. None of the others have a chance.

 

[nussnacker]

I was just thinking that if not for internal competition, Sasha wouldn’t need all 5 quads, Anna wouldn’t go for her 2-3, and Kamila wouldn’t do all those 3A and quads.
Those girls have to battle each other, and that makes them go for higher and higher tes, to the point when it’s absurdly difficult.
If they didn’t have each other to fight against, I’m sure their tech contents would’ve been more... normal. It’s just they don’t have a choice, or else they won’t even make it to euros/worlds and even won’t get GPs at some point, judging by what kind of juniors are growing up.
This internal cutthroat competition created that huge gap between them and everyone else.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I want to say Rika, but I think she's at a real disadvantage not training against her top rivals every day like Eteri's pupils do, or competing several times a year against them like Liza has to. In big events, Rika hasn't shown the same drive as the top Russian skaters have and I wonder if she really believes she can beat them.

 

[ladyjane]

Just one thing. A Russian sweep of the ladies is entirely possible. I recall that in Speed Skating the Dutch had some Sweeps like that in certain disciplines (I think it was the men's 500 meters in Sochi, and the 5 kilometres also in Sochi, as well as the ladies 3000 meters in Korea), and immediately the question came up if a sport could be Olympian with only one country getting all the medals in one or more of the disciplines. Dominance is one thing, grasping all the medals in a discipline quite another.

Don't get me wrong: I want the best to get the medals. If that's three Russians, then it's three Russians. But expect critical reactions if that happens. Therefore if a Japanese (whether it's Kaori or Rika), Belgian (yes, I'm a Loena fan) could manage to get one of them, that would be good for the sport in this context. I hope it will be possible.

 

[silveruskate]

Sakamoto at over 220 and Kihira even 230 are competitive. If the same 3 skaters sweep all the golds then they could get the silvers and make GPF.

Kamila, Anna and Sasha have been consistent 230+ (and still Sasha has flunked hugely sometimes). The rest are vulnerable at this stage. But, The Rest of the World will need to be on their A-game from the starting line or no dice.

 

[mrrice]

IMO, There isn't a skater from outside of Russia that can beat the top Russian Lady ( Whoever that may be ) I guess if their top lady had a meltdown, she could be beaten by Karen, or Maybe Alysa if she gets her jumps back. Loena Hendrickx, who did well at Worlds, is a skater I know nothing about and I plan to keep an eye on her. The Japanese Ladies would be next if I had to say today.

 

[ELEk3k]

I was just thinking that if not for internal competition, Sasha wouldn’t need all 5 quads, Anna wouldn’t go for her 2-3, and Kamila wouldn’t do all those 3A and quads.
Those girls have to battle each other, and that makes them go for higher and higher tes, to the point when it’s absurdly difficult.
If they didn’t have each other to fight against, I’m sure their tech contents would’ve been more... normal. It’s just they don’t have a choice, or else they won’t even make it to euros/worlds and even won’t get GPs at some point, judging by what kind of ju

I felt sorry for the girls after your words. They will have to go through such hell just to get out of the country.

 

[Mathman]

I have to keep reminding myself that Anna Shcherbakova won the wortld championship without a quad or a triple Axel. Aliona Kortornaia was the top skater the previous year witrhout a quad. Alexandra Trusova can do 5 quads,but has never come out at the top of the heap. (Every time Trusova competes I "do the math" and conclude that this time she can't possibly lose.)

I like SkaterBoy's idea that Rika Kihira is like Liz Manley -- a lot of disappointments, but she has the potential for that one astonishing career-defining performance.

Still, it would be no surprise if Russia got all six spots in the Grand Prix finals, which would certainly dispirit eveyone else looking toward the Olympics.

 

[LiamForeman]

I know people have their feelings re: how Eteri does things but you can't deny she's one of the most successful coaches out there. She produces champion after champion. Her track record with longevity is nonexistent but longevity doesn't seem to be that important in Russia since there is always another skater coming up. As one star falls another rises. Eteri's skaters seem to be averaging about 2.5 to 3 years at the senior level before being replaced. That's a brutal pace but it is what it is and doesn't appear to be slowing down.

You know, this gets a bit tiresome and irritating. How much "longevity" would Bradie, Mariah and the Canadians have if they had such intense national competition? They'd be long gone. You wouldn't even remember their names they'd be gone so fast because their skating is weak. Zagitova would be a favorite to win USNationals this season if she were in the US where "longevity" seems to mean not talented enough to make the teams. Have some perspective why don't ya? Plodding along in their 20s with inconsistent/nonexistant 3/3s and inconsistent regular triples I suppose is oh so great to you and more admirable? Give me a break.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

If the Russian quadsters go clean they're likely unbeatable, unless Kihira goes clean too with her axels and a quad and even then she would need a multi-quadsters to falter.

I'd just like to point out though that the silver and bronze medalists at Worlds 2021 got 220.46 and 217.20.

Several non-Russian skaters are within striking distance of that based on their personal bests (even if you drop PCS scores slightly for any received at home events before people get all prissy about that). http://www.isuresults.com/isujsstat/pbslto.htm

At their best, Miyahara, Tennell, You, Kihira, Sakamoto could have made the World podium. Kihira had a bad season (growing pains and all) but if she regains her consistency (she's had over a dozen senior competitions where she scored enough to have put her on the World podium -- her performances at Worlds last year would have got her silver this year)... so she can definitely snag an Olympic medal depending on how others skate IMO. I do think though that Trusova (who also had growth to deal with this season) heading back to Tutberidze will make it much harder for Kihira though as she's likely to be way more mentally prepared than when she was with Plushenko, and Valieva/Shcherbackova will take the top 2 spots for sure unless Liza has another miracle planned). Speaking of which - Liza wasn't supposed to make the Russian team let alone silver at Worlds - so clearly nothing is guaranteed if someone shows up to compete and others fail to do so.

 

[Thrashergurl]

I think politics plays into this a lot. I adore Sasha, but she was gifted bronze at Worlds. Her SP was a disaster and her scores were insulting to the skaters that should’ve beaten her in that portion. Many feel Rika should’ve been 1st in the SP. it’s all about who had the most political pull with the judges.
I also don’t see the Japanese federation backing their own skaters, which baffles me.
I think there are many skaters with the potential to beat the Russians if the judging was fair.
A comment was made about a non competitive Zagitova winning US Nationals. Hmmm....Let’s not forget that Bradie beat Zagitova and Mariah Bel beat her in the LP also. I don’t think Zagitova would be winning any US Nationals in the last 2 years. Not in the current shape she is in, nor does she seem to want to retire to a competitive form.

 

[Lzbee]

Russians
Tier 1 - Valieva and Shcherbakova
Tier 2 - Trusova, Kostornaia and Khromykh
Tier 3 - Tuktamysheva and Usacheva

Non-Russians:
Tier 1 - Kihira, You and Liu
Tier 2 - Sakamoto, Tennell, Bell
Tier 3 - Hendrickx, Glenn, Chen, Lim, Lee, Kim, Higuchi

Valieva and Shcherbakova:
No non-Russian can beat them even at their worst, unless it's Rika or maybe Alysa at their very best. (Rika's PB is only one point more than Anna's World's score)

Trusova:
Sasha has been incredibly inconsistent in seniors so far and any of Kihira, Liu or You can beat her if she's having a bad day. Depends on how bad a day she's having though as her Rostelecom score was beatable by all of the non Russians above and her worlds score was beatable by Sakamoto, Tennell and maaaybe Bell at their best.

Kostornaia and Khromykh:
Aliona with consistent 3As is very difficult to beat but if she's adding a quad, she'll probably be less consistent. Either way, I think it'll take a top form Kihira or Liu to beat her. Maia is close in BV but she doesn't have the international reputation yet and may be inconsistent. If the quads don't hit, then Sakamoto, Tennell and Bell have a chance. If the quads do hit, I think Kihira and Liu still have a chance.

Tuktamysheva and Usacheva:
I love Liza but I still think she's a dark horse amongst the Russian ladies unfortunately. She's historically been beatable by the Tier 2 non-Russians but I think a quad will push her over them at their best even with mistakes. Daria doesn't have any ultra-c elements yet but her BV is still higher than most non-Russians and she will get good PCS. Tier 1 non-Russians should be able to beat these two on a good day but I think only Sakamoto from Tier 2 has a chance against Usacheva.

Tldr:
Only Kihira, Liu and You have the tech and reputation to challenge the Russians at the moment and this is assuming Alysa and Young get their ultra-c elements back.

I haven't considered the potential influx of 3As from non Russian ladies here but they're already inconsistent without it and some will have to climb up the reputation ranks as well.

 

[yume]

This season's scores are misleading. This was a weird season. Less training time, some skaters got the virus or pneumonia (2 of the medalists got sick), etc. In the 2019-2020 season, with optimised skaters, the top three best scores were in 240s. That's the scoring potential of not 3 but probably 4 or 6 russian ladies next season.
Ice is slippery so everyone has a chance. But for sure, it will be extremely difficult to beat those skaters if they are clean.
I only see Kihira get 240s with three 3As and a quad. All the others will be at 230s at the very best.