Ladies Long Program Skate Canada 2013

[hippomoomin]

Julia is so lucky: young enough to have such a super small body and old enough to compete at the Olympics.

 

[bekalc]

Julia is so lucky: young enough to have such a super small body and old enough to compete at the Olympics.

I can't help wondering what growing will due because her jumps are little. She had puberty issues last year. However, I can't help thinking that puberty might help some of her issues give her more power and strength. She's 15 now, and so I'm really not so sure how much bigger she's going to get....

 

[Robeye]

Truth be told, we don't know how Yuna is skating. I would say it will be Mao, Julia and Yuna, I think Julia has a good chance to win the Olympics.

JMO: Julia might have an outside shot at a medal, but gold, I believe, is still a bridge too far.

Why do I think so? She gave an excellent performance here, and received an excellent score. But in my humble estimation, this (around the 200 level) is about the best performance she can do given her current capabilities. She's going to need more athletic jumps, greater overall power and speed, and increased musical sensitivity in order to go significantly beyond that plateau, none of which, I think, can happen within a scant few months.

If one believes that the OGM-winning score will be around 195-200, then I think Julia at her best is in with a chance. But if you think (as I do) that the winning score is likely to be significantly higher than that, then I just don't think that Julia has that kind of scoring potential quite yet.

 

[Blades of Passion]

If Julia continues to skate well and gives this exact same performance at the Olympics, she will score 5-7 more points for PCS there.

 

[Becki]

I think the hanging chandelier like stuff on Gracie's dress was a bit distracting....it would look so much prettier without it. Also the lipstick was a bit too dark.

Other than that, I think Gracie's skate was decent.

 

[katymay]

Julia is so lucky: young enough to have such a super small body and old enough to compete at the Olympics.

Yup- it is all about timing. Some have to wait until they are past their peak.

 

[bekalc]

JMO: Julia might have an outside shot at a medal, but gold, I believe, is still a bridge too far.

Why do I think so? She gave an excellent performance here, and received an excellent score. But in my humble estimation, this (around the 200 level) is about the best performance she can do given her current capabilities. She's going to need more athletic jumps, greater overall power and speed, and increased musical sensitivity in order to go significantly beyond that plateau, none of which, I think, can happen within a scant few months.

If one believes that the OGM-winning score will be around 195-200, then I think Julia at her best is in with a chance. But if you think (as I do) that the winning score is likely to be significantly higher than that, then I just don't think that Julia has that kind of scoring potential quite yet.

I can see Julia's PCS going up a little bit though. They won't and shouldn't get to Kim or Kostner's level if Kostner is clean, but I think they can go up. I think maybe in the 65 range. She'll have a shot if others mess up.

She shouldn't beat Kim, even if Kim makes a mistake, but I can see Asada and Kostner making more than one mistake and we don't know where Kim's at....

I'd like to see Julia stay in and mature. I know the folks at Eurosport were saying that they'd love to see Julia maybe in a few years go back to this music and portray it as an adult. I actually think that would be nice to see too.

I do love this program, and the concept.

 

[Mathman]

Is there a rule about posts needing to add meaningfully to the discussion? If not, there should be. "I don't like this skater. (Negative opinion without factual support.)" That adds nothing. It's just a demonstration of someone's bias, poor manners and hatefulness.

Indeed there is. Here is rule number 1 from the Golden Skate guidelines:

Keep posts constructive

Posts are welcomed and appreciated as long as they are constructive. For example, "So-and-so is a horrible skater!" is not a constructive post. An acceptable post would be "I feel so-and-so could improve their skating if ..." The best way to get your opinion(s) recognized is not to be abusive or offensive, but to be positive and communicate in a mature fashion.

Also, calling out fellow posters is discouraged, basically for the same reason. (It adds nothing to the discussion.)

But sometimes, in the heat of passion, we forget.

 

[Becki]

If Julia continues to skate well and gives this exact same performance at the Olympics, she will score 5-7 more points for PCS there.

So 65-67 for PCS..that seems a bit high. I am assuming if Mao, Carolina or Yuna are clean, then their PCs will be near 80 O__O?

 

[James R]

Gracie should realize that she's in a good spot and doesn't need to win it all at the upcoming Olympics. She just needs to show up and enjoy the experience.

This is worth mentioning again. I and many others would love to see her (or ANY US lady) on the podium in Sochi, but it's kind of an unfair expectation of someone in their 2nd year of seniors, going up against the asians as talented as they still will be. While it's still certainly POSSIBLE for her to be on the podium at Sochi, and something she should give her best shot, if she misses it's hardly the end of the world. She'll be 22 1/2 NEXT time around. With the right coaching and without serious injury, the sky is the limit IMO.

 

[katymay]

So 65-67 for PCS..that seems a bit high. I am assuming if Mao, Carolina or Yuna are clean, then their PCs will be near 80 O__O?

Assuming any of those three can hang in there. I've heard nothing about Caroline or Yuna, but Mao looked fairly fatigued. Mao is beautiful, and special, but she slows down and overthinks her jumps. Yuna has suffered her share of injuries, ditto Caroline. Julia knocks those jumps off with nary a thought, nor does she even seem to be thinking about a single one of them. They are small jumps, but fully rotated and she has blistering speed into the jumps. I think the only one who can beat Julia is a perfect Mao, Yuna or Gracie. Even with high PCS, I do not think Caroline can compete.

 

[elif]

So 65-67 for PCS..that seems a bit high. I am assuming if Mao, Carolina or Yuna are clean, then their PCs will be near 80 O__O?

I can't understand those PC scores. Rochette got
62 for Skate Canada 2009
58 for Cup of China 2009
56 for Grand Prix Final
68 for Olympics

She is behind Ando at the Final but at the Olympic LP their point diffrence come from PCS. Higher than Asada2s PCS too.

 

[Jammers]

Assuming any of those three can hang in there. I've heard nothing about Caroline or Yuna, but Mao looked fairly fatigued. Mao is beautiful, and special, but she slows down and overthinks her jumps. Yuna has suffered her share of injuries, ditto Caroline. Julia knocks those jumps off with nary a thought, nor does she even seem to be thinking about a single one of them. They are small jumps, but fully rotated and she has blistering speed into the jumps. I think the only one who can beat Julia is a perfect Mao, Yuna or Gracie. Even with high PCS, I do not think Caroline can compete.

Julia's speed is not that impressive and Mao,Caroline and Yuna will have to bomb big time for Julia to get on the podium her PCS is will be nowhere near the top Ladies and it shouldn't be. Heck Gracie can beat her if she's clean.

 

[Blades of Passion]

So 65-67 for PCS..that seems a bit high. I am assuming if Mao, Carolina or Yuna are clean, then their PCs will be near 80 O__O?

Maybe a max of 75 for Yu-Na if she skates perfectly. The main idea is that the gap between Lipnitskaya and the others is going to shrink rapidly. This program is an amazing vehicle and perfectly timed for an Olympics in Russia. Not only will Lipnitsakaya receive a huge ovation because of the Russian crowd, but the idea of the program and its embodiment of historical genocide will speak directly to the awful human rights violations that are happening IN Russia currently. People have already been moved to tears by this program. If she skates it perfectly in Sochi, there will be a flood.

 

[Icey]

ot I thought the men were to skate tonight at 7

 

[katymay]

Maybe a max of 75 for Yu-Na if she skates perfectly. The main idea is that the gap between Lipnitskaya and the others is going to shrink rapidly. This program is an amazing vehicle and perfectly timed for an Olympics in Russia. Not only will Lipnitsakaya receive a huge ovation because of the Russian crowd, but the idea of the program and its embodiment of historical genocide will speak directly to the awful human rights violations that are happening IN Russia currently. People have already been moved to tears by this program. If she skates it perfectly in Sochi, there will be a flood.

Also, it has been a long time for a Russian woman-way back to Irina days.(right?).I do think that will play into the equation. Another factor is that she is NEW and INTERESTING. That also enters into the equation. Gold is also NEW and INTERESTING. And I agree, a perfect Gold would certainly score higher than Julia. Judges are human, they get tired of the same old same old just like the rest of us.
I'm going to agree to disagree, but Julia is speedy, she is just tiny so it is harder to tell. And again, there is no hesitation into the jumps, no slowing down...no thought process at all. And I noticed that even when her takeoff is wonky, she manages to land them. Really really reminds me of Tara!

 

[Fruit Loops]

The competition wasn't as clean today as it was in the SP but overall some nice skates. CTV didn't show the first flight other than highlights of the Canadian girls.

I was a little disappointed with Gao's program. Last year I had really enjoyed her but this one was a little bland. I was watching it at the in-laws and had the volume down so couldn't really hear the music so can't really comment on it but her expression seemed bland. Her dress was really pretty though and I still want to root for her to do well.

And I agree with those who find Julia technically impressive but boring. I can admire introverted performances but she is absolutely frigid!! I almost feel like she resents the audience for spying on her. I think she should be an outside threat for the Olympic bronze due to her technical skills should the other top girls falter but she isn't really engaging. I have read some comparisons to Tara but Tara was bubbly and made up for some her more juniorish artistry with that infectious joie de vie. (I hope I wrote that correctly).

And I'm still in love Akiko. A few mistakes on her jumps and I believe one was downgraded but she really is such a joy to watch. Just lovely. She is my favourite of the Japanese ladies. I felt a little badly about all the "old veteran" and "old hand" descriptors from Rod Black. I mean, c'mon! She's not THAT old. lol I'm a year or two older and still like to think of myself as a young'un. *sighs*

 

[aftertherain]

Not only will Lipnitsakaya receive a huge ovation because of the Russian crowd, but the idea of the program and its embodiment of historical genocide will speak directly to the awful human rights violations that are happening IN Russia currently.

Well, when you put it like that, I feel obligated to like the program ... but I don't. Lipnitskaya's skating just doesn't do it for me. It's like, jump, nice skating, some out-of-place yoga stretches, rinse and repeat.

And I agree with those who find Julia technically impressive but boring. I can admire introverted performances but she is absolutely frigid!! I almost feel like she resents the audience for spying on her.

...

And I'm still in love Akiko. A few mistakes on her jumps and I believe one was downgraded but she really is such a joy to watch. Just lovely. She is my favourite of the Japanese ladies. I felt a little badly about all the "old veteran" and "old hand" descriptors from Rod Black. I mean, c'mon! She's not THAT old. lol I'm a year or two older and still like to think of myself as a young'un. *sighs*

I agree with these two statements. I think Julia has an impressive technical arsenal but the most I've felt for her skating is "meh."

Akiko, on the other hand, is stunning. I think she's been my favorite skater for the past three years--and I didn't even know it until now! Pasquale Camerlengo has been an excellent choreographer for her. Simply sublime, her programs.

 

[suzukifan27]

I can see Julia's PCS going up a little bit though. They won't and shouldn't get to Kim or Kostner's level if Kostner is clean, but I think they can go up. I think maybe in the 65 range. She'll have a shot if others mess up.

She shouldn't beat Kim, even if Kim makes a mistake, but I can see Asada and Kostner making more than one mistake and we don't know where Kim's at....

I'd like to see Julia stay in and mature. I know the folks at Eurosport were saying that they'd love to see Julia maybe in a few years go back to this music and portray it as an adult. I actually think that would be nice to see too.

I do love this program, and the concept.

Keep on hyping her, you are going to jinx another Russian baby. Look at the damage u have done. With a friend like u, who needs an enemy?

 

[Jammers]

Being only 15 Julia could grow another 3 inches and she still has the body of a little girl compared to the other Ladies so you have to wonder what's in the future for her. This might be as good as it gets.