2022 Olympics Team Event Day2: Men's Free Skate | Page 38 | Golden Skate

2022 Olympics Team Event Day2: Men's Free Skate

moonvine

All Hail Queen Gracie
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Karen has lovely qualities, and I enjoy watching her when she isn't nervous and under pressure and under-performing. Vincent's skating I will not miss. It's nothing about either of them personally. I don't know them personally, but they seem like nice young people, especially Karen. It's one of those things where I enjoy rooting for them at their best, but I'm not that emotionally invested in their skating, so it's underwhelming when they perform underwhelmingly. I'm sure both will be successful in whatever and wherever their lives take them when they retire from competing. Since both are academically-minded, I can see them enjoying fascinating careers in the fields they are majoring in academically.

Frankly, I don't see either of them deciding to continue after their second Olympics. They likely both want to hang up the skates (still skate professionally in shows perhaps), but most likely take up their studies again at their respective universities. Of course, it's their individual decisions to make. I was just wishing each of them well because I doubt that either are going to desire to continue after going to the Olympics twice. Both will likely be getting an Olympic silver team medal to cap off their careers, if the U.S. manages to hold onto silver in the team event.

Vincent has backed off the retirement talk for sure. He is 21 years old and I can see him wanting to stay in another 4 years after his Covid diagnosis. I don’t think Karen has talked about retirement.
 

moonvine

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What? Phenom # gazillion shows up for Japan and everyone suddenly forgets about Shoma!? All three Japanese guys ain't gonna be on the podium with Nathan, unless something wildly unexpected happens. LOL!

Yuma is young. Let youngster phenom grow up please, and battle it out with missing phenom, Ilia Malinin, in the future.


Oh and yes, someone was mentioning how they think Kagiyama is the greatest jumper. He's just one of many, honestly. The jumps look spectacular on him because of his soft knees and how fast he gets around that he's almost a blur in the air. Ilia Malinin has gorgeous jumps too. Both of these young guys have jumps that complement their body builds!

OTOH, Hanyu and Javi had these rare suspended in-the-air quads which were mind-blowing. Kolyada has classic, gorgeous jump technique too, despite his nerve-induced inconsistencies. Nathan has perfect, rare, textbook air position, but unspectacular landings. Nathan is just usually always on point with his blade positions on landings, because he has great jump technique that again, works beautifully for his body build. Nathan doesn't have those soft, soft knees though that so many Japanese skaters have. The soft knees are a Japanese, to-die-for trademark. ❤️


FWIW Brian Boitano was raving over Yuma and boldly predicted he will be the first to land a 5 revolution jump. (Please dear skating gods, this is something that never needs to happen).
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

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Also BladesOfPassion, let us humour you and examine even your “best case scenario” with Team USA “skating to their potential” — replacing the scores they received in the team event with their personal best scores, and having Nathan compete in both segments, and all non-US skaters maintain the scores they got in the team event (even though several of them could have scored/placed higher if they had also skated to their potential).


Team USA:
Women = 16 points (Karen 3rd each time, instead of 5th and 4th)
Pairs = 16 points (SK/F -3rd each time)
Ice Dance = 20 points (let’s maintain the upsets over S/K by H/D and C/B)
Men = 20 points (with Nathan competing in both segments and beating Yuma)
Total = 72 points

Team ROC:

Women = 20 points (1st + 1st)
Pairs = 19 points (2nd + 1st)
Ice Dance = 18 points (2nd + 2nd)
Men = 16 points (3rd + 3rd, Mark dropping a spot in the mens FS)
Total = 73 points

USA still comes 2nd. :popcorn:

*insert Team ROC’s Valieva end pose slash mic drop*
 
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anonymoose_au

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But I guess they really wanted Vincent to have a medal.
Is Vincent really that popular with the US Fed? Or maybe the Fed was worried that even though Nathan is a completely different skater now, doing all the programs was too big a risk for the individual event.

The plot thickens! 🤔
 

Blades of Passion

Skating is Art, if you let it be
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The US were behind by NINE points in the end.

So what. They COULD have scored 3 more points in pairs, 3 more in women, and 3 more in Men. You send the best team when a medal is on the line, period. Russia did and so did Canada last time. They left nothing to chance. That's how this event SHOULD be conducted in such a circumstance.

The window was extremely small after Karen's SP mistake, but it was still possible if two-time World medalist Boyjang Jin had an inspired Long Program and beat Kondratiuk there, and if S/K in the Free Dance had made a significant error and dropped to 3rd. Nikita already almost fell in the Short Dance as it is, so. You give yourself every opportunity to place as well as you can.
 

Alex Fedorov

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Also BladesOfPassion, let us humour you and examine even your “best case scenario” with Team USA “skating to their potential” — replacing the scores they earned with their personal best scores, having Nathan compete in both segments, and everyone else skating as they ended up skating (even though several of them underperformed themselves).


USA:
Women = 16 points (Karen 3rd each time, instead of 5th and 4th)
Pairs = 16 points (SK/F ending up 3rd each time)
Ice Dance = 20 points (let’s maintain the upsets over S/K by H/D and C/B)
Men = 20 points (with Nathan competing in both segments and beating Yuma)
Total = 72 points

ROC:
Women = 20 points (1st + 1st)
Pairs = 19 points (2nd + 1st)
Ice Dance = 18 points (2nd + 2nd)
Men = 16 points (3rd + 3rd, Mark dropping a spot in the mens FS)
Total = 73 points

USA still comes 2nd. :popcorn:
in such a scenario, the situation at the end of the tournament would become quite nervous. Humans are not robots, and there would be a chance that ROC skaters would make a mistake.

The replacement of Nathan may indicate that it was decided instead of a full-fledged fight to save strength for individual competitions.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

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So what. They COULD have scored 3 more points in pairs, 3 more in women, and 3 more in Men. You send the best team when a medal is on the line, period. Russia did and so did Canada last time. They left nothing to chance. That's how this event SHOULD be conducted in such a circumstance.

The window was extremely small after Karen's SP mistake, but it was still possible if two-time World medalist Boyjang Jin had an inspired Long Program and beat Kondratiuk there, and if S/K in the Free Dance had made a significant error and dropped to 3rd. Nikita already almost fell in the Short Dance as it is, so. You give yourself every opportunity to place as well as you can.

Good lord. Now you’re talking about non-US skaters skating to their potential and dropping ROC until the math checks out for you. FYI, Jin (two-time World medalist in 2016 and 2017) has cleared 181.65 (Kondratiuk’s score) in exactly 1 out of 15 international free skates this past quadrennial. This season his international FS scores have been 144.38 and 139.07.

As I pointed above, even if team USA had replaced Zhou with Chen in the men’s FS and every entry of theirs skated their personal best, they would have still ended up behind ROC.
 
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CanadianSkaterGuy

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in such a scenario, the situation at the end of the tournament would become quite nervous. Humans are not robots, and there would be a chance that ROC skaters would make a mistake.

The replacement of Nathan may indicate that it was decided instead of a full-fledged fight to save strength for individual competitions.

Well actually Valieva is kind of a robot in her ability to execute under pressure.

After the first three events pressure was on Valieva to take the lead for ROC, and Karen didn’t have that pressure. And yet Valieva rose to the occasion and Karen underperformed.

Let’s give ROC some credit — they do quite well under pressure whereas it was the US pairs, women and men who all faltered in the team FS. I don’t really get this argument that humans can cave under pressure when it’s an argument that actually gives more reason to ROC being the putative gold winners from the jump, as they are clearly mentally and technically stronger overall. They faltered in ID but it wasn’t as costly as the issues with the US woman and pairs.
 

Blades of Passion

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As I pointed above, even if team USA replaced Zhou with Chen in the men’s FS and every entry of theirs skated a personal best, they would have still ended up behind ROC.

Nope your math is wrong. USA would have placed 2nd in the Pairs LP, not 3rd, if they had skated up to their expected potential.

And it's very disrespectful, and extremely dumb from a competitive mindset, to act like Boyang Jin didn't have the potential to place higher, or that S/K didn't have a chance of making a significant error. The possibility was there for USA to win the event even with Karen's unfortunate mistake, and that's all that matters. You send your best team and hope for the best outcome.

Brian Boitano was raving over Yuma and boldly predicted he will be the first to land a 5 revolution jump. (Please dear skating gods, this is something that never needs to happen).

Yuma will not be the first to land a 5 revolution jump, seeing as he does about 3.3 actual air rotations right now with his quads.
 

BlissfulSynergy

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Vincent has backed off the retirement talk for sure. He is 21 years old and I can see him wanting to stay in another 4 years after his Covid diagnosis. I don’t think Karen has talked about retirement.
Ummm yeah, we'll see what happens with Vincent. He's unpredictable, even in his decision-making.

On NBC broadcast, it was stated by Tara that Karen was emotional after her skate, because she has plans to move on, and she wants to 'enjoy these final competitive experiences to the fullest.'
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

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Nope your math is wrong. USA would have placed 2nd in the Pairs LP, not 3rd, if they had skated up to their expected potential.

And it's very disrespectful, and extremely dumb from a competitive mindset, to act like Boyang Jin didn't have the potential to place higher, or that S/K didn't have a chance of making a significant error. The possibility was there for USA to win the event even with Karen's unfortunate mistake, and that's all that matters. You send your best team and hope for the best outcome.



Yuma will not be the first to land a 5 revolution jump, seeing as he does about 3.3 actual air rotations right now with his quads.


How on earth do you get SK/F ending up second in the pairs LP when their ISU personal best is 136.60 and the Japanese pair just got 139.60?! Ohhhhh I get it, this is one of those things where you envision an ISU personal best for someone that they have *yet* to achieve, in order to support your argument that it would have resulted in a higher team placement. On the subject of imagining things they could have done even though they haven’t yet done it, Karen could have definitely beaten Wakaba with a clean 2A, 3L and backloaded cleanly ratified 3Z+3T. Come on gurl, skate to that potential!

Please this is so ludicrous. You are literally imagining a man idealized scenario where the US skaters skate lights out and magically get enough points and standings to sufficiently swing the overall result in their favour. And, of course, in this idealized scenario, every non-US skater doesn’t skate to their potential or even falls (oh wait, some do skate to their past potential like Jin, so long as it helps the US in the overall math).

“All we need for the US to win gold is for our skaters to exceed their prior personal bests, for ROC to make considerable errors, and for the rest of the field to skate just well enough (but not too well!) that they wedge themselves between us and ROC!”

Winning strategy there. (y)
 

Blades of Passion

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How on earth do you get SK/F ending up second in the pairs LP when their ISU personal best is 136.60 and the Japanese pair just got 139.60?!

Watch 2021 Nationals and stop talking about things you don't understand. They absolutely would have scored over 140 if skating to potential. Not even gonna touch any of the other incorrect, time-wasting things you said.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

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And in the end it didn’t matter if the US had sent their best team.

The skaters skated how they skated and in the end the US team was very far behind ROC and that was even benefitting from favourable surprises like Ice dance, and S/H edging out M/G in the pairs SP while SK/F managed to edge out the Japanese pair in that segment.

As I said, the weakness of ROC was mens and they overcame that thanks to Kondratiuk exceeding expectations in both segments. The weakness of USA were pairs and women - and while they had a stellar SP, SK/F did not deliver in the FS…. And Karen didn’t deliver in either segment.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

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Watch 2021 Nationals and stop talking about things you don't understand. They absolutely would have scored over 140 if skating to potential. Not even gonna touch any of the other incorrect, time-wasting things you said.

Ah right, where they scored 150.64 You’re right - they actually would have beat Mishima and Galliamov here! Never mind the fact that they scored 127.43 at Worlds after that Nationals. Let’s use an anomalous showing at Nationals which they weren’t able to translate into international competition yet, and completely ignore the fact that they’ve never had a clean FS internationally. Nationals potential for the win!

Based on that thinking, you know, Mariah should have totally done the FS …. because her 151.99 FS at 2020 Nationals would have beaten Sakamoto! Or even better yet they really should have used Liu - if she had skated her 160 FS from 2020 Nationals she could have easily beaten Sakamoto too. Definitely makes sense to use results from past years instead of the current season when determining a skater’s current ability.

I mean, if a double World bronze medallist from 2016 and 2017 (let’s of course ignore any decline in ability/consistency since then) can spontaneously skate an inspired program to challenge the top of the pack, what’s to say Bell or Liu couldn’t have done the same! 😍
 
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Allikat

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Also BladesOfPassion, let us humour you and examine even your “best case scenario” with Team USA “skating to their potential” — replacing the scores they received in the team event with their personal best scores, and having Nathan compete in both segments, and all non-US skaters maintain the scores they got in the team event (even though several of them could have scored/placed higher if they had also skated to their potential).


Team USA:
Women = 16 points (Karen 3rd each time, instead of 5th and 4th)
Pairs = 16 points (SK/F -3rd each time)
Ice Dance = 20 points (let’s maintain the upsets over S/K by H/D and C/B)
Men = 20 points (with Nathan competing in both segments and beating Yuma)
Total = 72 points

Team ROC:

Women = 20 points (1st + 1st)
Pairs = 19 points (2nd + 1st)
Ice Dance = 18 points (2nd + 2nd)
Men = 16 points (3rd + 3rd, Mark dropping a spot in the mens FS)
Total = 73 points

USA still comes 2nd. :popcorn:

*insert Team ROC’s Valieva end pose slash mic drop*
Wow--this is precisely the same 'best-case-scenario' I had worked out, too! Team ROC was getting that Team Gold, no matter what. And I am perfectly happy to see the placements awarded to ROC 1st, USA 2nd, and Japan 3rd. I am unsure about how/when podium winners receive their actual medals, though... :unsure:
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

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Wow--this is precisely the same 'best-case-scenario' I had worked out, too! Team ROC was getting that Team Gold, no matter what. And I am perfectly happy to see the placements awarded to ROC 1st, USA 2nd, and Japan 3rd. I am unsure about how/when podium winners receive their actual medals, though... :unsure:

Placements were correct and there was at least a bit of drama especially surrounding the teams moving on to the FS with a strong bid from Georgia and Italy. Some very strongly skated segments, personal bests and highlights too!
 

moonvine

All Hail Queen Gracie
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Is Vincent really that popular with the US Fed? Or maybe the Fed was worried that even though Nathan is a completely different skater now, doing all the programs was too big a risk for the individual event.

The plot thickens! 🤔
Honestly I don’t understand their thinking. Per the SI article they didn’t plan to make a push for the gold, so Vincent is the only man who doesn’t have an Olympic medal already so split them? No matter what there were going to be athletes with no medal. They could have used Nathan for both segments since he volunteered to do that (against anything I had ever heard) and split the women’s.
 

moonvine

All Hail Queen Gracie
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Wow--this is precisely the same 'best-case-scenario' I had worked out, too! Team ROC was getting that Team Gold, no matter what. And I am perfectly happy to see the placements awarded to ROC 1st, USA 2nd, and Japan 3rd. I am unsure about how/when podium winners receive their actual medals, though... :unsure:
Normally, at least for a few decades, almost all winter medals are awarded in some sort of place created for that purpose, typically called a medals plaza or something similar. Looking back it isn’t necessarily true for summer medals so who knows. I don’t know when the skaters will receive their medals but I’m sure clips will be available. Fun fact: Adam said in his book all athletes get a special outfit that is only to be worn if the athlete receives a medal and that is what they wear for the ceremony.
 
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