2019-20 Russian Ladies' Figure Skating

[drivingmissdaisy]

Alina's skills are still there, and she can probably improve in some aspects at the age of 17 (If Evgenia can do it at 19 or 20, why cannot Alina?). The whole issue is motivation. With strong teammates, it is hard to face them from day to day. She could move to a different coach while remains a good relationship with Eteri, but it will be relocation, adjusting to a new environment and so on, all for the sake of achieving what she has already achieved at best? She probably does not have the motivation to do that even though she could.

I think Alina can improve some things but her jump technique is nowhere near as solid as Liza's, so it's hard to see her introducing much harder jumps like Liza has. She would basically need to do quad versions of the triples she couldn't rotate last weekend.

 

[SnowWhite]

Great analysis!

Well, I've said it before, I think as it stands now, Vasilieva and Tarakanova will be kept juniors next season as well. As you said, they were senior eligible already this season, but that didn't help them.

Or, Vasilieva might get one spot, but they will ignore Tarakanova as they did with Gubanova this year.

I think a big factor we must consider here is that FS is also very dependent on their stars. Samodurova is still the EC, and Konstantinova has her followers in Russia. RusFed will want to show names that people know. And nobody knows who Vasilieva and Tarakanova is...and that is their problem.

I think Vasilieva might get one as you said, since she's ahead of Tarakanova on the list. I think there's a very big chance that Tarakanova won't get a spot (and she may still fall out of the top 24 SB). If Kostornaya, Trusova, Shcherbakova, Medvedeva, Tuktamysheva, Zagitova, and Sinitsyna all get two spots, then Samodurova, Konstantinova and Vasilieva can each get one spot, and one of them can get a 2nd.

 

[katymay]

True Icy. sponsors will not drop Alina right away even if and when she retires. They may scale her paid down a little bit year after year but they won't drop her.

She seems to have already done a number of commercials and print ads. Not to mention the Red Square exhibition which was beautiful. I think Alina is going to continue to be marketable because she is beautiful. I suspect she will withdraw from Nationals, but we'll see.

 

[Jontor]

So, what if.........Trusova and Shcherbakova had skated a clean free program at the GP Finals - how would the end score have changed?

Something like this:

Trusova:
Clean 4S --> +11.37 (9.7 BV with +3 GOE)
Clean 4T --> +10.12 (same as her 4T at Nepela with 0,1 bonus, no bonus on the GOE)
Total +21.49

Shcherbakova:
Clean 4F --> +9.80 (same as Trusova's 4F)
Clean 4Lz --> +6.47 (same as Trusova's 4Lz)
Total +16.27

Trusova 233.18+21.49 = 254.67
Shcherbakova 240.92+16.27=257.19

So Shcherbakova would still have won if they both skated a clean long program.

The difference is the short program where Trusova fell on her 3A. But if she had done a 2A instead with +1.0 in GOE that would have been +2.10.
then Trusova would have had a total 256.77 and it still wouldn't been enough against Shcherbakova

Conclusion:
Trusova is lacking in the other elements.
A clean Trusova with 5 quads (and no 3A in the short) can't beat a clean Shcherbakova with 3 quads.

So what do you guys think? There is of course also the factor of PCS that would have been higher for both girls if they had skated clean, but that is impossible to estimate imo.

 

[Scott512]

She seems to have already done a number of commercials and print ads. Not to mention the Red Square exhibition which was beautiful. I think Alina is going to continue to be marketable because she is beautiful. I suspect she will withdraw from Nationals, but we'll see.

I agree with every word except about Nationals. I hope she does not withdraw and skates very well. Only if Alina is fit though that she really did injure herself at the Grand Prix final then you got to put the brakes on.

 

[Amei]

So, what if.........Trusova and Shcherbakova had skated a clean free program at the GP Finals - how would the end score have changed?

Something like this:

Trusova:
Clean 4S --> +11.37 (9.7 BV with +3 GOE)
Clean 4T --> +10.12 (same as her 4T at Nepela with 0,1 bonus, no bonus on the GOE)
Total +21.49

Shcherbakova:
Clean 4F --> +9.80 (same as Trusova's 4F)
Clean 4Lz --> +6.47 (same as Trusova's 4Lz)
Total +16.27

Trusova 233.18+21.49 = 254.67
Shcherbakova 240.92+16.27=257.19

So Shcherbakova would still have won if they both skated a clean long program.

The difference is the short program where Trusova fell on her 3A. But if she had done a 2A instead with +1.0 in GOE that would have been +2.10.
then Trusova would have had a total 256.77 and it still wouldn't been enough against Shcherbakova

Conclusion:
Trusova is lacking in the other elements.
A clean Trusova with 5 quads (and no 3A in the short) can't beat a clean Shcherbakova with 3 quads.

So what do you guys think? There is of course also the factor of PCS that would have been higher for both girls if they had skated clean, but that is impossible to estimate imo.

That's interesting considering that Shcherbakova has been considered to be the weakest of Kostornaia/Trusova/Shcherbakova and some were saying even if she finished ahead of Zagitova at Nationals that Zagitova would be sent to Europeans/Worlds over her, and once Elizaveta showed her 4T on social media people were quick to say it made Shcherbakova even more vulnerable.

I've stated it either in this thread or the ladies quad thread, Shcherbakova while she doesn't do the variation of quads that Trusova does - if we compare the quads that she does do vs. Trusova that Shcherbakova's are more impressive looking. And Shcherbakova has (in my eyes) worked to improve her non-jump program elements in addition to the quad flip; Trusova is a great jumper and its clear that's what she focuses on in training.

 

[Jontor]

Your conclusion is disingenuous and it almost seems like you’re trying to convince yourself that Sasha can’t beat Anna, lol. Of course a clean Sasha with 5 quads and no 3A can beat a clean Anna with 3 quads. And in most cases, she would (unless the judges continue to give Sasha a lowballed PCS, while Anna gets her highest ever PCS by far despite the flawed skate). The difference between your imagined scores of 256.77 vs 257.19 is negligible, anyway.

Ok, I'm not trying to prove anything. It's just that I'm not sure that people realise how close these girls are. People are saying that Trusova as the quad queen will win everything...well, that is not reallly true. This competition was an example of that. And if you count the numbers, she is not invincible at all.

But don't get me wrong. I loooove Trusova. She is a fighter and I love her fighting spirit. She is all about "all or nothing" and that's gutsy. But I think it is a worrying scenario for Trusova if you do the numbers. Of course she can beat Shcherbakova. But it shouldn't be hard. The Grand Prix Finals showed that Shcherbakova with 3 quads is at her heels and scores the same. Shouldn't that be a wake up call for Trusova that she needs somethignng else??

 

[lusterfan]

That's interesting considering that Shcherbakova has been considered to be the weakest of Kostornaia/Trusova/Shcherbakova and some were saying even if she finished ahead of Zagitova at Nationals that Zagitova would be sent to Europeans/Worlds over her, and once Elizaveta showed her 4T on social media people were quick to say it made Shcherbakova even more vulnerable.

I've stated it either in this thread or the ladies quad thread, Shcherbakova while she doesn't do the variation of quads that Trusova does - if we compare the quads that she does do vs. Trusova that Shcherbakova's are more impressive looking. And Shcherbakova has (in my eyes) worked to improve her non-jump program elements in addition to the quad flip; Trusova is a great jumper and its clear that's what she focuses on in training.

I think Anna looked weaker in the early season because her SP was always scored very low, and not once did she break 230 points when Alyona and Sasha routinely reached 230-240+. Her PCS also started out low, so it didn't seem likely that she would beat Alyona (massive SP lead, high PCS, and decent-enough scoring FS) or Sasha (she had more quads, was scoring better in the SP despite the same technical content, and was actually scoring the same/higher in PCS). However at GPF, when they were all scored by the same judges, Anna received a PCS boost, scored very very well in the SP, and added an extra quad to her repertoire.

Throughout the season, Anna looked weakest (among the three) in the way she was being scored and what she brought to the competitions. Now, it's fair to say that Alyona, Sasha, and Anna are pretty much on the same playing field again, each with her own specialties. However, this only really happened after GPF.

 

[Jontor]

Anna still has to land her quads if Sasha makes a mistake, and the more Anna complicates her program, the tougher it will be for her to actually skate clean. I don’t think that she has anywhere near the same stamina as Sasha, plus Sasha isn’t nearly as prone to under rotations as Anna is.

But the point of my calculation excercise above was to show that there is really nothing between them if they both skates clean. Sasha's 5 quads didn't really mean anything here at GPF. People sometimes say that Sasha can score up to 260-275 points. I wonder how? Here it was clear that she was never gonna reach those highs with a clean skate.

 

[Jontor]

I think Anna looked weaker in the early season because her SP was always scored very low, and not once did she break 230 points when Alyona and Sasha routinely reached 230-240+. Her PCS also started out low, so it didn't seem likely that she would beat Alyona (massive SP lead, high PCS, and decent-enough scoring FS) or Sasha (she had more quads, was scoring better in the SP despite the same technical content, and was actually scoring the same/higher in PCS). However at GPF, when they were all scored by the same judges, Anna received a PCS boost, scored very very well in the SP, and added an extra quad to her repertoire.

Throughout the season, Anna looked weakest (among the three) in the way she was being scored and what she brought to the competitions. Now, it's fair to say that Alyona, Sasha, and Anna are pretty much on the same playing field again, each with her own specialties. However, this only really happened after GPF.

Agree. This was the FIRST time they skated against each other. It will be interesting to see how RusNats will score them, which will be up next. Are they going the same way as the international judges?

 

[Anya00]

If Sasha lands her 5 quads in the FS and the 3A in the SP, she is untouchable. Her PCS would also go up (and substantially, most likely) as a result. 270 is probably within reach.

Keep in mind that Sasha got lowballed on PCS, while Anna somehow got her highest PCS ever despite a flawed skate with an under rotation and a fall. It doesn’t compute. And I don’t think that this will be the norm moving forward. Sasha won’t keep getting lowballed on PCS, I don’t think.

While I do think Sasha was a little bit lowballed on PCS (although it's also kind of justifiable considering how many falls/pops she had), I think Anna's finally getting the PCS she deserves. She's such a musical skater with beautiful interpretation and performance. I think Anna was underscored in PCS the whole season up until GPF.

 

[Jontor]

While I do think Sasha was a little bit lowballed on PCS (although it's also kind of justifiable considering how many falls/pops she had), I think Anna's finally getting the PCS she deserves. She's such a musical skater with beautiful interpretation and performance. I think Anna was underscored in PCS the whole season up until GPF.

Totally agree. It was when the judges saw them together that they realised they had to raise Anna's PCS.

Here is the GOE rate the girls got this weekend:

BV/GOE
Zagitova 112%
Trusova 115%
Shcherbakova 116%
Tuktamysheva 119%
Kostornaia 129%

Damn, I really wanted to see that Tuktamysheva skate at Golden Spin

 

[Jontor]

I’m not saying that Anna deserved or didn’t deserve her PCS. PCS is subjective. But how do we explain her rather huge increase in PCS so suddenly, and with a fall and an under rotation to boot? It was a good, but flawed performance.

Regardless of whether she deserved her PCS or not, these judges are quite shady with how they decided to reward one skater with her highest PCS ever despite a very flawed performance, while Sasha received her worst PCS ever with her flawed performance.

I have to disagree here. On the contrary, I think Anna has been severly underscored all season in PCS, and now she is finally getting near the points she deserves.
I could say that Trusova has been overscored in PCS...but I won't.

 

[SkateSkates]

Agree. This was the FIRST time they skated against each other. It will be interesting to see how RusNats will score them, which will be up next. Are they going the same way as the international judges?

National competitions usually have more favorable judging, so GOEs and PCS will probably go up for all skaters. That said, Aliona is already receiving +4 on a lot of her elements so her scores don’t have as much room to grow as Anna or Sasha who get more +2/3s. This is not a conspiracy but just a fact - if you are already close to maximizing your score then you have less room to grow.

PCS wise it will be interesting - I’m expecting the biggest boost for Sasha just because she has the most room to grow. I could see a scenario like this

Sasha GPF 65, Nationals 71 (she got this at jr Nats with a clean skate last season)
Anna GPF 69, Nationals 73-74?
Aliona GPF 73, Nationals 75?

It’s hard to predict before knowing how they would perform, but above 75 is hard to achieve - an average of 9.5 puts you at 76.

 

[SkatingFan9]

I have to disagree here. On the contrary, I think Anna has been severly underscored all season in PCS, and now she is finally getting near the points she deserves.
I could say that Trusova has been overscored in PCS...but I won't.

You’re entitled to your opinion. PCS is subjective, after all. :confused2:

But none of that was my point. These scoring inconsistencies are a problem, though.

 

[Jontor]

National competitions usually have more favorable judging, so GOEs and PCS will probably go up for all skaters. That said, Aliona is already receiving +4 on a lot of her elements so her scores don’t have as much room to grow as Anna or Sasha who get more +2/3s. This is not a conspiracy but just a fact - if you are already close to maximizing your score then you have less room to grow.

PCS wise it will be interesting - I’m expecting the biggest boost for Sasha just because she has the most room to grow. I could see a scenario like this

Sasha GPF 65, Nationals 71 (she got this at jr Nats with a clean skate last season)
Anna GPF 69, Nationals 73-74?
Aliona GPF 73, Nationals 75?

It’s hard to predict before knowing how they would perform, but above 75 is hard to achieve - an average of 9.5 puts you at 76.

I can buy that. But with a little lower rate perhaps? Sasha up +6 points and Anna +4-5 is a bit optimistic don't you think??

 

[SkateSkates]

You’re entitled to your opinion. PCS is subjective, after all. :confused2:

But none of that was my point. These scoring inconsistencies are a problem, though.

But shouldn’t PCS go up or down depending on the performance? If someone makes multiple mistakes it would make sense that their PCS suffers. And if they skate great at their next event it should rise. Also, who you skate after and how the event is going can impact the judges a little bit - if everyone bombs and you skate clean it will leave a stronger impression. This likely won’t affect the scores massively, maybe just an 8.5 instead of an 8.25. I wouldn’t necessarily call it scoring inconsistencies as the girls PCS ranges haven’t really been that large on the Grand Prix this season:

Anna:
SP: 31.69 (Stsq fall), 33.43, 34.55
LP: 67.96, 67.82, 69.13 (1 fall)

Sasha:
SP 33.44, 33.92, 32.80 (1 fall)
LP 67.42 (1 fall), 66.92 (2 falls), 65.93 (1 fall, 1 pop)

Aliona:
SP 33.57, 35.66, 35.97
LP 71.07, 72.35 (step out), 73.27

That said, we will see how they grow or stay around the same as the season progresses (if they skate clean).

 

[Jontor]

Russian Nationals will be soooo interesting.

Trivial facts:

The last two Nationals the Top 13 all scored more than 65 points in the short.

Last year the top 13 scored over 190 points. Two years ago it was "only" the top 12 that scored over 190.

 

[SkateSkates]

I can buy that. But with a little lower rate perhaps? Sasha up +6 points and Anna +4-5 is a bit optimistic don't you think??

My estimate for Sasha is based on scores she did receive at junior nationals last season with a perfectly clean skate, so I think it’s possible again if she’s 100% clean. I may not personally agree with scoring her this high, but it has happened before so it can happen again.

With Anna I gave her more of a boost than Aliona but less than Sasha. She is harder to predict how much her score can or will go up, but at nationals last season she beat Sasha in PCS and she beat her at GPF so I just made an assumption. It would require her to be in the low to mid 9s across all components

Again not saying I agree with the scores it’s just what I see as the highest potential scores the judges could give them for a clean skate.

 

[Jontor]

My estimate for Sasha is based on scores she did receive at junior nationals last season with a perfectly clean skate, so I think it’s possible again if she’s 100% clean. I may not personally agree with scoring her this high, but it has happened before so it can happen again.

With Anna I gave her more of a boost than Aliona but less than Sasha. She is harder to predict how much her score can or will go up, but at nationals last season she beat Sasha in PCS and she beat her at GPF so I just made an assumption. It would require her to be in the low to mid 9s across all components

Again not saying I agree with the scores it’s just what I see as the highest potential scores the judges could give them for a clean skate.

Yes, I understand. And I also think that PCS is also a reputation score - more than we think perhaps. I think that Trusova's relatively high PCS early in the season is purely her reputation, while Anna, who has always been the 3rd girl, had little reputation and therefore less PCS.
Kostornaia on the other hand has always had the rep of an artistic skater, so she is rising, but where is her limit I wonder? She had a couple of clean skates now under her belt, but when those mistakes starts to happen - how will that affect her PCS?

RusNats will indeed be very interesting...