American Champs: Predictions Game Round 3

ugh all these WDs :sad21: put me in such depressing mood!!:sad4::hopelessness:

I've really only paid attention to singles but I will give all 4 a shot:
Ladies:
1. Ashley Wagner (one bad free skate aside, she's done well this season).
2. Mariah Bell (Raf has been good for her and I have been rooting for her for years)
3. Mirai Nagasu (just a feeling she will put out 2 solid programs)
4. Gracie Gold (mistakes but good PCS scores)
5. Angela Wang (great short, a mistake in the free puts her just behind Gold)
6. Courtney Hicks (jumping mistakes keep her off the podium)

Men:
1. Nathan Chen
2. Max Aaron
3. Jason Brown
4. Grant Hochstein
5. Vincent Zhao
6. Ross Miner

pairs:
1. Denney/Frazier
2. Kayne/Oshea
3. Castelli/Tran
4. Cain/Leduc
5. Liu/Johnson
6. Pfund/Santillan

Dance
1. shibutanis
2. Chock/Bates
3. Hubbell/Donahue
4. Hawayek/Baker
5. Cannucio/McManus
6. Pogrebinsky/Benoit

Ladies
1. Ashley Wagner
2. Mariah Bell
3. Mirai Nagasu
4. Gracie Gold
5. Courtney Hicks
6. Karen Chen

Men
1. Nathan Chen
2. Jason Brown
3. Max Aaron
4. Vincent Zhou
5. Ross Minor
6. Timothy Dolensky

Pairs
1. Denney/Frazier
2. Kayne/Oshea
3. Castelli/Tran
4. Cain/Leduc
5. Liu/Johnson
6. Pfund/Santillan

Dance
1. Shibutani/Shibutani
2. Chock/Bates
3. Hubbell/Donahue
4. Hawayek/Baker
5. Cannucio/McManus
6. Pogrebinsky/Benoit

Ladies

1. Ashley Wagner
2. Mariah Bell
3. Gracie Gold
4. Mirai Nagasu
5. Caroline Zhang
6. Angela Wang

Men

1. Nathan Chen
2. Max Aaron
3. Vincent Zhou
4. Jason Brown
5. Grant Hochstein
6. Tim Dolensky

I'm really surprised we haven't heard of any reports of the skaters arriving in town. There must be some that have arrived by now. I'll check again tomorrow..

StitchMonkey said:

FYI we have had three more withdraws from pairs.

Alexa SCIMECA /
Chris KNIERIM

Jessica CALALANG /
Zack SIDHU

Caitlin FIELDS /
Ernie Utah STEVENS

have all withdrawn due to injury.

Click to expand...

My goodness! At this rate of going we won't have any Pairs left!

Just updated the tables in the Original Post to reflect these latest withdrawals.

Also checked the PDF in case anybody else withdrew today, but there are no more names missing.

CaroLiza_fan

Since I only did ladies for the Russian and Japanese Nationals, I'll do that here too.

1. Ashley Wagner
2. Mirai Nagasu
3. Mariah Bell
4. Gracie Gold
5. Courtney Hicks
6. Karen Chen

Regarding Mariah Bell, I'm a fan of her skating and she impressed me a lot at Skate America, but I'm not sure if I should bet a lot on her just yet like some others are doing. The competitions leading up to SA were good too, but we haven't seen Mariah skate at a big event ever since SA. So I put her in the middle.

Men:

1. Nathan Chen
2. Jason Brown
3. Max Aaron
4. Vincent Zhou
5. Grant Hochstein
6. Andrew Torgashev

Ladies:

1. Ashley Wagner
2. Gracie Gold
3. Mariah Bell
4. Mirai Nagasu
5. Karen Chen
6. Courtney Hicks

Ice Dance:

1. Shibutani/Shibutani
2. Chock/Bates
3. Hubbell/Donahue
4. Hawayek/Baker
5. Pogrebinsky/Benoit

I unfortunately missed out on the previous two rounds of national champs predictions, but I'd like to share a dance prediction here, which is unlikely to come true, but is something I've been thinking about for a while.


1. Shibutani/Shibutani
2. Hubbell/Donohue
3. Chock/Bates
4. Hawayek/Baker
5. Pogrebinsky/Benoit

Ladies

1. Ashley WAGNER
2. Mariah BELL
3. Karen CHEN ... I would dearly love to see these 3 ladies, who are performers first, kill it on the tech side as well and medal!
4. Gracie GOLD (either by being close to form or held up as usual )
5. Mirai NAGASU
6. Amber GLENN


Men

1. Nathan CHEN
2. Jason BROWN
3. Max AARON
4. Ross MINER ... just put together two programs like last year's SP :cool14:
5. Vincent ZHOU
6. Grant HOCHSTEIN


Pairs

1. Haven DENNEY / Brandon FRAZIER
2. Tarah KAYNE / Daniel O’SHEA :luv17:
3. Ashley CAIN / Tim LEDUC ... what these two have done over this season is amazing!
4. Marissa CASTELLI / Mervin TRAN
5. Jessica PFUND / Joshua SANTILLAN
6. Deanna STELLATO-DUDEK / Nathan BARTHOLOMAY


Dance

1. Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES
2. Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI
3. Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER :dance:
4. Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE
5. Elliana POGREBINSKY / Alex BENOIT
6. Anastasia CANNUSCIO / Colin MCMANUS


I will be missing Adam Rippon dearly, his poetry, fluidity of movement, and heart.

Men

1) Chen
2) Aaron
3) Brown
4) Zhou
5) Hochstein
6) Dolenski


Ladies

1) Wagner
2) Hicks
3) Gold
4) Bell
5) Chen
6) Nagasu


Pairs

1) Kayne/O'Shea
2) Denney/Frazier
3) Castelli/Tran
4) Liu/Johnson
5) Pfund/Santillan
6) Cain/Leduc


Ice Dance

1) Shibutani/Shibutani
2) Chcok/Bates
3) Hubbell/Donohue
4) Hawayek/Baker
5) Pogrebinsky/Benoit
6) Cannuscio/McManus

LADIES:
1. Ashley WAGNER
2. Mariah BELL
3. Gracie GOLD
4. Courtney HICKS
5. Karen CHEN
6. Amber GLENN
7. Mirai NAGASU

MEN:
1. Jason BROWN
2. Nathan CHEN
3. Max AARON
4. Ross MINER
5. Grant HOCHSTEIN
6. Timothy DOLENSKY

DANCE:
1. Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI
2. Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES
3. Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE
4. Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER
5. Elliana POGREBINSKY / Alex BENOIT
6. Anastasia CANNUSCIO / Colin MCMANUS

3. Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER
4. Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE

Click to expand...

that would be awesome!
tho doubt it will actually happen

I do wonder how many of people in predictions thread who already submitted their prediction will only get to know that Scimeca / Knierim are not going to be there after competition starts.

LADIES:
1. Mirai Nagasu
2. Mariah Bell
3. Ashley Wagner
4. Gracie Gold
5. Karen Chen
6. Courtney Hicks
7. Amber Glenn

MEN:
1. Nathan Chen
2. Jason Brown
3. Vincent Zhou
4. Grant Hochstein
5. Max Aaron
5. Ross Miner
6. Timothy Dolensky

PAIRS:
1. Haven Denney/Brandon Frazier
2. Tarah Kayne/Daniel O’Shea
3. Marissa Castelli/Mervin Tran
4. Ashley Cain/Tim LeDuc
5. Jessica Pfund/Joshua Santillan

DANCE:
1. Maia Shibutani/ Alex Shibutani
2. Madison Hubbell / Zacary Donohue
3. Madison Chock / Evan Bates
4. Kaitlin Hawayek / Jean-Luc Baker
5. Elliana Pogrebeinksy / Alex Benoit
6. Anastasia Cannuscio / Colin McManus

The discipline I am most unsure about is ladies. Ashley Wagner is the safest bet to win the title and Gold seems to be in a better place mentally, but I think Bell and Nagasu are so hungry to prove themselves that I think they both may have a moment and I think if they do the judges might get swept away. I also am not putting too much faith in Gold just because I'm not sure if contacting her old coach who didn't even communicate to Frank will really do the trick, though maybe I'm thinking too longterm with that rather than thinking of the short term boost that will give Gracie. I also wonder if she set up another high standard to meet that will give her more pressure for her to crack under since she's making a big deal about her new found confidence.

For Pairs, I think the top three could go either way actually. I think Denny/Frazier are the hot new thing and they don't seem to have the same baggage Kayne/O'Shea and Castelli/Tran do. I would love to see all the top pairs bring it and show us fans that we shouldn't be writing them off yet. I'm tired of people dogging our pairs even though they have really good reason to. For Kayne/O'Shea because I really like their LP as it's challenging material for them, but I hope they get a new SP because it's way beneath them now and it's regressed a lot since last year's Nationals. Castelli/Tran seriously need to hit because I think they need it more than anyone. If they don't, then I don't know what it'll do for their confidence because if they can't produce one clean competition (even making major mistakes after surprisingly landing their jumps) then it does not bode well for their partnership. I know I shouldn't put too much stock in behind-the-scenes politicks, but I also don't know how much the USFS will keep investing in them since they aren't going to the Olympics and haven't been producing great performances even though they have such great potential. I also have a soft spot for Mervin Tran, but I keep getting disappointed. I really liked what Denney/Frazier have been producing this season and I like to see them win a title. Cain/LeDuc I find to be dangerously overhyped in some corners, but I'm waiting to be won over by them.

For the Men, Nathan Chen, if clean, deserves to win this. He doesn't have Jason Brown's beautiful line, musicality, and attention to detail nor transition-heavy choreography, but he has great musicality (IMO, his SP is fantastic and his LP is getting there), excellent skating skills, has the potential to have great PCS, is working on his PCS, and has those quads that are competitive on the world stage. However, because his routines are so ambitious he has more opportunities to be error-ridden. The pressure may get to him though he seems mentally tough to me. Max Aaron I put high because of his technical goods though I think his skating skills, choreography, and musicality is behind the likes of Hochstein and even Miner and Dolensky. However, I'm not sure if they can beat a clean Aaron.

For Ice Dance, I'm of two-minds. IMO, the Shibs should run away with this, but they don't have a Davis/White air of invincibility...yet. I think a renewed Chock/Bates and a hungry Hubbell/Donohue are good enough to take advantage if the Shibs don't hit all of their levels or make uncharacteristic mistakes. That said, the Shibs tend to have excellent performances at Nationals (2014 SD is an exception it seems) and also seem to be going in as challengers rather than defenders because they feel like they have a lot to prove. I personally think they're using Nationals as a jump start to start being seen as contenders for gold against Virtue/Moir and Papadakis/Cizeron so that is giving them a chaser-like role...at the same time I think they are smart and aware enough that the C/B and H/D are so talented and strong that they themselves are worthy champions as well, so they can't expect to just ride on their excellent season and being reigning national champs, 4CC champs, and world silver medalists either. They know more than anyone that past success isn't enough to be coronated with the title in this field since they usurped C/B last season despite C/B being reigning national champs, SA winners, and GPF silver medalists at the time. I'm seriously looking forward to 5-6 excellent performances from world-level teams as Hawayek/Baker have amazing material as well and Jean-Luc is the American Cizeron except he doesn't have the body or looks of Cizeron so nobody notices. I had to rank them, but despite my feelings that the Shibs are the best, I can see any of the top 3 being national champions with Hawayek/Baker being a real dark horse if something goes wrong with any of the top 3.

Ladies
1. Ashley WAGNER
2. Courtney HICKS
3. Mariah BELL
4. Bradie TENNELL
5. Mirai NAGASU
6. Gracie GOLD

Men
1. Nathan CHEN
2. Vincent ZHOU
3. Jason BROWN
4. Grant HOCHSTEIN
5. Max AARON
6. Ross MINER

Pairs
1. Ashley CAIN / Tim LEDUC
2. Haven DENNEY / Brandon FRAZIER
3. Tarah KAYNE / Daniel O’SHEA
4. Marissa CASTELLI / Mervin TRAN
5. Jessica PFUND / Joshua SANTILLAN
6. Deanna STELLATO / Nathan BARTHOLOMAY

Dance
1. Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI
2. Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE
3. Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES
4. Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER
5. Elliana POGREBINSKY / Alex BENOIT
6. Anastasia CANNUSCIO / Colin MCMANUS

men
Nathan CHEN
Jason BROWN
Max AARON
Vincent ZHOU
Timothy DOLENSKY
Grant HOCHSTEIN

pairs
Haven DENNEY / Brandon FRAZIER
Marissa CASTELLI / Mervin TRAN
Tarah KAYNE / Daniel O’SHEA
Ashley CAIN / Tim LEDUC
Chelsea LIU / Brian JOHNSON
Jessica PFUND / Joshua SANTILLAN

ladies
Ashley WAGNER
Gracie GOLD
Karen CHEN
Mirai NAGASU
Courtney HICKS
Mariah BELL

dance
Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI
Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES
Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE
Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER
Elliana POGREBINSKY / Alex BENOIT
Anastasia CANNUSCIO / Colin MCMANUS

Bellaxx said:

LADIES:
1. Ashley WAGNER
2. Mariah BELL
3. Gracie GOLD
4. Courtney HICKS
5. Karen CHEN
6. Amber GLENN
7. Mirai NAGASU

MEN:
1. Jason BROWN
2. Nathan CHEN
3. Max AARON
4. Ross MINER
5. Grant HOCHSTEIN
6. Timothy DOLENSKY

DANCE:
1. Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI
2. Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES
3. Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE
4. Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER
5. Elliana POGREBINSKY / Alex BENOIT
6. Anastasia CANNUSCIO / Colin MCMANUS

Click to expand...

@Bellaxx, Since you gave props to Jason, I had to look up the flag.

Wales has a flag? Cool. Who knew? (even though I am one quarter Cornish ancestry and for all I know, Cornwall has a flag too)

Ladies
1. Ashley WAGNER
2. Courtney HICKS
3. Mariah BELL
4. Mirai NAGASU
5. Gracie GOLD
6. Bradie TENNELL

Men
1. Nathan CHEN
2. Jason BROWN
3. Max AARON
4. Ross MINER
5. Vincent ZHOU
6. Grant HOCHSTEIN

Pairs
1. Tarah KAYNE / Daniel O’SHEA
2. Haven DENNEY / Brandon FRAZIER
3. Ashley CAIN / Tim LEDUC
4. Marissa CASTELLI / Mervin TRAN
5. Jessica PFUND / Joshua SANTILLAN
6. Deanna STELLATO / Nathan BARTHOLOMAY

Dance
1. Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI
2. Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE
3. Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES
4. Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER
5. Elliana POGREBINSKY / Alex BENOIT
6. Anastasia CANNUSCIO / Colin MCMANUS

Ladies
1. Mirai NAGASU
2. Ashley WAGNER
3. Gracie GOLD
4. Mariah BELL
5. Courtney HICKS
6. Bradie TENNELL

Men
1. Nathan CHEN
2. Jason BROWN
3. Max AARON
4. Ross MINER
5. Vincent ZHOU
6. Grant HOCHSTEIN

Pairs
1. Ashley CAIN / Tim LEDUC
2. Tarah KAYNE / Daniel O’SHEA
3. Haven DENNEY / Brandon FRAZIER
4. Marissa CASTELLI / Mervin TRAN
5. Jessica PFUND / Joshua SANTILLAN
6. Deanna STELLATO / Nathan BARTHOLOMAY

Dance
1. Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI
2. Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE
3. Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES
4. Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER
5. Elliana POGREBINSKY / Alex BENOIT
6. Anastasia CANNUSCIO / Colin MCMANUS