2016 Canadian Nationals Senior Men FS

[peg]

So what would happen if Patrick is on the world podium? Could that in itself earn three spots? Or does it all depend on where Liam finishes?

I'm surprised too that the world team was announced already, I thought for sure they'd wait until after 4CC.

Liam's placement counts too. It's only if a country has one skater that they can earn three spots if that skater finishes first or second

 

[SarahSynchro]

Thank you, Peg.

So say Patrick is on the worlds podium, where would Liam have to place to retain two spots, and where would he have to place to get three spots?

 

[peg]

Thank you, Peg.

So say Patrick is on the worlds podium, where would Liam have to place to retain two spots, and where would he have to place to get three spots?

Based on what Li'Kitsu said, if Patrick is on the podium, it doesn't matter how badly Liam skates and we still get two spots. Even if he doesn't make the FS cut, he wlil get 18 points. Assuming Patrck is third (the worst case podium result) 3+18=21, which is under the 28 required to keep 2 spots.

To get three spots, if Patrick is third, Liam needs to be no worse than 10th. The magic number there is 13, so any combination of placements which adds up to 13 or less would do it (eg 1st and 12th or better, 2nd and 11th or better)

 

[rain]

Based on what Li'Kitsu said, if Patrick is on the podium, it doesn't matter how badly Liam skates and we still get two spots. Even if he doesn't make the FS cut, he wlil get 18 points. Assuming Patrck is third (the worst case podium result) 3+18=21, which is under the 28 required to keep 2 spots.

To get three spots, if Patrick is third, Liam needs to be no worse than 10th. The magic number there is 13, so any combination of placements which adds up to 13 or less would do it (eg 1st and 12th or better, 2nd and 11th or better)

I think it would be incredibly difficult for any of Firus, Reynolds or Nam to make top 10 this year, given the depth of the international field and their recent performances. So I don't get the hand-wringing about Firus's second place.

 

[Violet Bliss]

To get three spots, the placement total should be 13 or less. The second skater usually only needed to finish in the top 12 when Patrick was always winning. This year however, the second Canadian Man may have to finish within the top 10, not a sure thing by Nam or Kevin with their conditions and performances this season and with the tough competition at Worlds this year.

Basically, Patrick alone can deliver 2 spots whereas chances of getting 3 spots are not high with any second Canadian Man.

 

[artsciboy]

To get three spots, the placement total should be 13 or less. The second skater usually only needed to finish in the top 12 when Patrick was always winning. This year however, the second Canadian Man may have to finish within the top 10, not a sure thing by Nam or Kevin with their conditions and performances this season and with the tough competition at Worlds this year.

Basically, Patrick alone can deliver 2 spots whereas chances of getting 3 spots are not high with any second Canadian Man.

But we say that with the competition every year - its always tough competition at Worlds. I don't love Nam - but who expected him to finish 5th last year? Why not send skaters who have landed both 3axels and quads in competition as opposed to Liam who has an iffy quad at best?

 

[Fruit Loops]

I don't understand the support for Liam either. He is a graceful skater but his style and performance doesn't strike me as being THAT superior to the other men. This is still a sport so I would prefer a man who is more consistent technically.

The final flight wasn't a disaster but there were plenty of mistakes that detracted a bit from the excitement. Still some good performances though. I was impressed with that new kid from Quebec -- Nicolas or something like that (sorry, forget his name off the top of my head). If he can continue to improve his technical skills I can see him climbing up the ladder. We need some sort of rivalry. Maybe him and Nam in the coming years?

 

[Skater Boy]

So what would happen if Patrick is on the world podium? Could that in itself earn three spots? Or does it all depend on where Liam finishes?

I'm surprised too that the world team was announced already, I thought for sure they'd wait until after 4CC.

Patrick and Liam need to total 13 or less placements. I don't think anyone is begrudging Liam. the issue is this internationally not only is he scoring significantly less he is lower than Nam and Reynolds who would be held up probably higher pc wise and thus place higher. For Canada to get three men now is unlikely with Liam and he has a very limited score potential versus Nam or Reynolds plus he would need implosions probably from the American and Russian Men; one of the Japanese, one of the Chinese men, beat the French, Czech, German and maybe have Ten skate disasterously (I am basing this on what there appears to be a chance of happening - However realistically Liam has little chance against Hanyu and his young protégé lol are unbeatable, Patrick will be ahead of Liam as will Fernandez, Ten, the Americans, the Russians, the Chinese, and I anticipate the third Japanese is out of Liam's reach. So he will struggle to earn top 15. However, I agree sadly it is more believeable that he will miss skating or not qualify for the fs after sp than it is he will make the top ten. Sorry

 

[rain]

However realistically Liam has little chance against Hanyu and his young protégé lol are unbeatable, Patrick will be ahead of Liam as will Fernandez, Ten, the Americans, the Russians, the Chinese, and I anticipate the third Japanese is out of Liam's reach. So he will struggle to earn top 15. However, I agree sadly it is more believeable that he will miss skating or not qualify for the fs after sp than it is he will make the top ten. Sorry

The thing is, all of that is also true of Nam this season and especially of Reynolds. Chances are extremely poor any of them would make top 10 this year. Yes, Nam and Reynolds have placed higher than that in the past, but the field is totally different this season, Nam is not skating up to par and he has seriously limited basic skating, as does Reynolds, who is an almost total unknown at this point.

 

[silverlake22]

The thing is, all of that is also true of Nam this season and especially of Reynolds. Chances are extremely poor any of them would make top 10 this year. Yes, Nam and Reynolds have placed higher than that in the past, but the field is totally different this season, Nam is not skating up to par and he has seriously limited basic skating, as does Reynolds, who is an almost total unknown at this point.

But if you look at international scores, they don't lie:

Kevin: PB 250.55 (no ISU scores this season)
Nam: PB 242.59 (SB 238.82)
Liam: PB 200.27 (SB 200.27)

Um. Clearly don't send Liam.

 

[silverlake22]

As sad as I am for Nam, (he's been totally dropped this year both nationally and internationally, and he's really not doing anything particularly different than what he did last year, with great success) maybe this is the kick in the butt he needs to really buckle down and address his skating skills. That's the one area where Firus is unquestionably second only to Chan.

"Totally dropped" is relative. His placements on the GP weren't great, but he still managed to score 230+ at both events. His international SB is 238, not as high as he got at Worlds last season, but still 38 points higher than the best score Liam put up internationally this season. I'll admit Liam is a nice skater, but he's completely unknown internationally, he didn't have a GP this season, so even if he manages to skate well, his PCS won't be high. Plus he has an iffy quad and doesn't really have a 3a. And then there is the whole bombing at big competitions thing. It would be one thing if he was consistent with his lesser tech but he isn't, he made plenty of mistakes at Nationals just like he usually does at Internationals.

 

[cheerknithanson]

I don't think the issue is really about Reynolds, rather Firus.

I was saying that more of a "Wow, the last time that happened......." thing, which I think that it'll be a nice thing for him to remember going to his first 4CC in 3 years. Nothing to do with the discussion on why some of us are not happy Liam got the 2nd spot for Worlds.

 

[Sabrina]

I think that from the 3 men, Nam is the most reliable guy. Nam at his worst, lost the quadruples but hit all the other jumps, including 3A. Knowing Nam, I think that he could even come to terms with those quads soon. He has grown a lot, but may be, he would have had enough time to get used to the new height. So, again...Nam is more consistent than many top 10 skaters, so he might have a slim chance of top 10. But I can't see Liam in top 10, not in my wildest dreams.
I also consider Kevin better than Liam, again with a super slim chance of top 10, provided he hits all his jumps.

 

[fairly4]

congratulations to all especially Patrick Chan on 8th title. good job

 

[LRK]

But if you look at international scores, they don't lie:

Kevin: PB 250.55 (no ISU scores this season)
Nam: PB 242.59 (SB 238.82)
Liam: PB 200.27 (SB 200.27)

Um. Clearly don't send Liam.

So, out of curiosity I checked where Liam's PB would place him at last year's Worlds':
http://www.isuresults.com/results/wc2015/CAT001RS.HTM

At 18th, narrowly beating out Chafik. Nam's SB would still have had him in 5th.

Of course the situation is quite different this year - other skaters in the mix for instance - plus add in the general volatility of the men's field & the skaters, one can't make too much out of it, nor prove anything by it. Still, if not taken too seriously, it was interesting, I thought.

 

[Skater Boy]

I wonder if Liam knows what many (probably not the average citizen mind you who knows nothing about skating and in Canada other than Patrick Chan and maybe Weaver and Poje and or Duhamel and Radford) have no idea who this sequin wearing boy is) people are thinking. I feel bad because even though I think strategically Canada's best hope would be Nam or Reynolds for three skaters but it just leaves Canada very vulnerable. What happens if Patrick places say 8th a bad result for him and Liam doesn't make the free skate - I thought the total was 23 placements but someone said 28 - regardless no one in their dreams would think Canada has a chance for 3 men with Liam - yes, there are Liam fans but I forgot he hasn't been to big international events this year. granted neither has the injured Reyolds but at least he has a fairly recent history of showing the goods to be a top ten if not five skater. Liam as pointed out doesn't even have some of the easier triples in his back pocket and his pcs on the world scene aren't that impressive - he is no Buttle or Chan who even with bad skates had great skating skills - Liam isn't at that level. With Reynolds or Nam there was some hoping of say beating a man from Japan or one or two from Russia or the US and much easier notion of holding off the Germans, Czech, French and a Chinese man.

Still I hope Liam can show everyone wrong - doubtful but hope he can enjoy the experience but I still wonder if he knows or is thinking what a lot of us are thinking? Some ways it is kid of sad.

Liam and Reynolds can rejoice and I know Nam will fight back but I hope his training mates Fernadez and Hanyu will cheer him up. Can you imagine you are no. 5 in the world or were (at world's) skating with the Olympic champion and world darling Hanyu and world champ Fernandez and they are going to world's where you stay at home not making the podium and deal with quite frankly is ridiculous growth in the last two years. I feel for him.

 

[Carshalton]

I figured out the method to Skate Canada's madness! They send Liam and Patrick to Worlds. Liam does't make it out of the short program and Patrick agrees to finish out of the top 10, resulting in Canada only sending one (Patrick) to 2017 Worlds. Patrick medals - voila, Canada sends three to the Olympics! Just kidding ... Or am I?

 

[4everchan]

Lol

i figured out the method to skate canada's madness! They send liam and patrick to worlds. Liam does't make it out of the short program and patrick agrees to finish out of the top 10, resulting in canada only sending one (patrick) to 2017 worlds. Patrick medals - voila, canada sends three to the olympics! Just kidding ... Or am i?

 

[cinuka]

"Totally dropped" is relative. His placements on the GP weren't great, but he still managed to score 230+ at both events. His international SB is 238, not as high as he got at Worlds last season, but still 38 points higher than the best score Liam put up internationally this season. I'll admit Liam is a nice skater, but he's completely unknown internationally, he didn't have a GP this season, so even if he manages to skate well, his PCS won't be high. Plus he has an iffy quad and doesn't really have a 3a. And then there is the whole bombing at big competitions thing. It would be one thing if he was consistent with his lesser tech but he isn't, he made plenty of mistakes at Nationals just like he usually does at Internationals.

What if Liam has a total splatfest at 4CC (and Kevin does pretty well or at least MUCH better than Liam)? Is there any chance that SC will not stand by their decision to send Liam to worlds?

 

[cheerknithanson]

What if Liam has a total splatfest at 4CC (and Kevin does pretty well or at least MUCH better than Liam)? Is there any chance that SC will not stand by their decision to send Liam to worlds?

Very good question. I wish I had an answer.