2017-2018 Japanese Nationals Ladies FS

[Leonardo]

About Kaori: her best program ever was that valse macabre sp she had in the beggining of the season. She should use that music later in her career. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aauzbmY0aZ0

 

[chopinskate]

I really think Satoko is by far the best ladies' skater Japan has right now. Kaori and Rika K. need help with PCS, Marin needs more work on both sides (she is very good in TES as compared to the excellent of Rika, and very good on PCS as compared to the excellent of Satoko), Wakaba is inconsistent, Mai delivers on FS but not really on the SP, and Rika H. is the opposite of Mai.

Satoko has clear edges on her jumps, and tries to rotate really fast to prevent URs. She has excellent PCS. She is the best. The JSF clearly thinks so, too. If marked correctly on her PCS (75>) and if she hustles to prevent URs (or hides them really, really well), then she should win the OGM.

 

[Alifyre]

You just can't read expressions on a very East Asian face. Kaori's face reminds me of a Hakata doll's.

https://instagram.com/p/BdKlAFOlX4L/

Turns out you're not the only one who thinks along these lines -- I came across this instagram post that compares Kaori to a classic Japanese painting calling her (according to the translator) a Japanese beauty. She definitely does have a sort of classic Japanese face depicted in a lot of forms of Japanese art -- a very different style and formulation of expression and beauty than is seen in the west.

 

[kevinVchicago]

Satoko’s novice-like jumps

[emoji23][emoji23][emoji23][emoji23]
Come on, now! She is not the strongest jumper in the field, but "novice-like"?
Please check out her 2A-3T.

 

[chopinskate]

[emoji23][emoji23][emoji23][emoji23]
Come on, now! She is not the strongest jumper in the field, but "novice-like"?
Please check out her 2A-3T.

Exactly! Her edge-control is good, too!

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

[emoji23][emoji23][emoji23][emoji23]
Come on, now! She is not the strongest jumper in the field, but "novice-like"?
Please check out her 2A-3T.

This will remain a sore spot for people - no matter how many GP/World or even Olympic medals Satoko wins. Keep doing your thing Satoko -you're giving the naysayers plenty of fuel which just makes the rest of us grab plenty more popcorn.

 

[itsakurinut]

The thing that bothers me the most about Kaori's FS is that she has never been an expressive skater in the "Western" sense: while she's skating, her face is often expressionless in a very composed and detached way. So why give her a program full of mimicking? Most of the time she looks as if she was doing it listlessly, as if she didn't really care: the result is that (as opposed to many Eteri girls such as Tarakanova) it is not a bit convincing :hopelessness:

I know this reaction comes in pretty late, but I want to add my two cents as someone who watched her FS live at Japanese Nationals. For context, I had a seat up in the stands, a bit far from the ice. However, the size of the arena didn't make it feel like I was really far from the skaters. It's not as intimate as like, the Yokohama Skate Center. But it was definitely easier to watch a skater's full movements even from high up in comparison to Yoyogi Gymnasium or Saitama Super Arena.

I'm not a fan of the miming myself, but live, I think her body language comes off as very bright and full of energy. I think the miming in the first half of the program, where it looks like she has received a surprise and she seems to go around spreading happiness suits her very well. My only complaint is that the middle of the program, that break with the swinging arm, was really not her? I personally would like to see her do something upbeat in the future, maybe as an SP. But then again, her composed look also seems more suited for calmer music and less miming.

 

[Art&Sport]

I really think Satoko is by far the best ladies' skater Japan has right now. Kaori and Rika K. need help with PCS, Marin needs more work on both sides (she is very good in TES as compared to the excellent of Rika, and very good on PCS as compared to the excellent of Satoko), Wakaba is inconsistent, Mai delivers on FS but not really on the SP, and Rika H. is the opposite of Mai.

Satoko has clear edges on her jumps, and tries to rotate really fast to prevent URs. She has excellent PCS. She is the best. The JSF clearly thinks so, too. If marked correctly on her PCS (75>) and if she hustles to prevent URs (or hides them really, really well), then she should win the OGM.

You seem to be basing your highlighted assessment on a few recent competitions. I've seen Mai Mihara skate sp and fp very well at competitions, so that's a bad rap you've settled on her. I'll address your thoughts on Wakaba below. Wakaba has been great all season until her last two competitions, so it's not accurate to dismiss her completely with "she's not consistent."

Also, that's very wishful thinking on your part regarding Satoko winning OGM. Satoko is an exquisitely lovely skater with gorgeous artistic skills, and excellent edge control. She's beautiful to watch. She has heart and soul. But apparently she does not have enough power to jump high enough in the air. What's amazing is how she's been able to compensate by rotating so quickly. She often looks like a hummingbird with the quickness of those jumps hovering inches over the ice. Because she's such a gorgeous skater and she's highly supported by Japanese Fed, perhaps the judges tend to give her the benefit of the doubt regarding URs. I don't know what she can do to try and build strength or adjust her technique in order to jump higher. If she could jump higher, with the quickness of her rotations, she might be able to rotate fast enough to even land quads.

Oh well, I do not think Satoko is as competitive technically in terms of her small jumps. Yes, she's amazing in the way her jumps are so fast like the blink of an eye. But it's often unclear whether she actually makes the full rotations and/or how much she pre-rotates her jumps. As far as OGM, Zagitova is probably more-so in the running, along with Medvedeva (if she's healthy), and Kaetlyn Osmond. Probably Satoko and Carolina have the best artistry. Kaetlyn is very good artistically as well. Zagitova is great technically but immature otherwise and so overscored on PCS! But I do not see that changing unfortunately. Medvedeva of course is always overscored on PCS too. Under the circumstances of political over-favoritism for the Russian ladies, Satoko would do well just to make the podium at the Olympics.

Sotskova is like Russia's version of Japan's Rika Hongo. Boring, posture-challenged, but determinedly robotic and proficient technically. The main difference between Sotskova and Hongo is that Hongo hunches her shoulders very badly and she does not have as nice lines on the ice as Sotskova, and thus the judges hand Sotskova 'skating while Russian' overscores on PCS.

My favorite Japanese ladies are Mai Mihara and Wakaba Higuchi. Unfortunately, Wakaba faltered badly at the tail end of her fp at GPF, and she doesn't appear to have recovered from that letdown. Otherwise, Wakaba had been on a roll all season long. She has been aggressive, powerful, consistent and determined, with two wonderfully choreographed programs. The judges have consistently underscored Wakaba on the GP, but that's politics pure and simple. Wakaba was on a mission this season, but it has to have been hard for her mentally having to prove herself over and over again, and the judges not giving her better marks for her outstanding performances. She had the chance at GPF to be on the podium. She seemed to succumb a bit to the pressure of skating at home for GPF. Wakaba still had the opportunity to make some noise at Japanese Nationals, but a pop on a jump in the sp, and the doubling of a jump in the fp was enough to hold her down in this very deep and talented Japanese ladies field. It seemed just pure loss of concentration, because she's technically and artistically very good. Please note though that it's only been her last two crucial competitions where Wakaba faltered: slightly at Japan Natls, and badly at the tail end of her fp at GPF. That doesn't mean Wakaba is always inconsistent. She just needs to manage her nerves under pressure and learn how to pace herself, and maintan her confidence and self-belief under the onslaught of being undermarked when she skates great.

Kaori is well-rounded, consistent and spirited, but to me she needs more seasoning. She does not have much depth artistically. And I do not like Kaori's Medvedeva-like miming in her fp. Please no going in that overwrought direction! Enough of that already. Rika Kihara doesn't stand out that much to me. She needs more seasoning as well.

I hated the camerawork at this competition. What was up with those overhead shots and close-ups on body parts and cutting off half of skaters bodies? I'm so tired of the sport's inability to understand how to cover this sport properly. They need to work with broadcasters and camera people and get them to understand that viewers do not want to see overhead angles. This is not synchronized swimming, and not synchronized skating either. We need to see skaters' entire bodies at all times. If they want to go for close-ups, they need to use a split screen in order to maintain a full view of skaters' bodies. And just stop with the overhead shots!

 

[Shayuki]

What's amazing is how she's been able to compensate by rotating so quickly. She often looks like a hummingbird with the quickness of those jumps hovering inches over the ice. Because she's such a gorgeous skater and she's highly supported by Japanese Fed, perhaps the judges tend to give her the benefit of the doubt regarding URs. I don't know what she can do to try and build strength or adjust her technique in order to jump higher. If she could jump higher, with the quickness of her rotations, she might be able to rotate fast enough to even land quads.

On this, we can have some comparisons...

First is the clean and fully rotated Anya quad here, so we know what it actually takes for a quad. Accuracy limited by the amount of frames available, the air time is 17/30 frames, or approximately 0.566... seconds. The peak rotation speed is ever so slightly more than 2 full revolutions in 10 frames, or 6 revolutions per second.

Now, because Satoko has UR issues, I assume that she isn't holding back at all and is rotating her jumps as fast as she possibly can(Because it wouldn't make sense to hold back when you might UR).

Going through Satoko's FS at the nationals:

The 3Lo doesn't get above ~4.8 revolutions per second, or 1 revolution per 6 frames. It's at least UR as seen frame by frame, by the way. Air time is about 0.433... seconds.

The 3Lz peak rotation speed is actually significantly lower than that, maybe around 4.5. per second. This is also a UR(the only one that was called). Air time is about 0.366... seconds.

The 3T in the combo also has lower rotation speed. 4.5 per second seems about right. This looked borderline to UR but maybe I might let this one go - pre-rotation was around 270 degrees though. Air time is about 0.4 seconds.

The 3F afterwards has very close to 4.8 revolutions per second, but not quite. 270 degrees or so of pre-rotation. This also was UR. 0.4 seconds of air time.

The 3Lz on the second half has slightly less than 4.8 revolutions per second of peak rotation speed. 0.466.... seconds of air time. (Skipping the doubles)

The 3T after the 2A has again lower rotation speed - I'd say even lower than 4.5 revolutions per second. Probably around 220 degrees of pre-rotation. It also was clearly UR - I would have given it <<. Around 0.4 seconds of air time.

The 3S is again slow. It has a peak rotation speed of about 4.5 revolutions per second. Around 0.4 seconds of air time.


She is nowhere near "quad girl" rotation speed, not even close. She's slightly above(talking 0.1-0.3 revolutions per second) where most ladies are, but even Zagitova and Medvedeva for instance have jumps where they rotate as fast - They just often don't need to do so as they can easily rotate fully around without doing so. If Satoko wanted to quad, she'd need Mikhail Kolyada level height. She is a slower rotator than him, even.

I did this to show you(And others) that Satoko doesn't land her jumps by "rotating them fast". She lands them by pre-rotating and underrotating them. And no, it's not an opinion - Video proof is available if you just watch her jumps frame by frame.

 

[chopinskate]

Thanks for the analysis!