2018-19 Men's Power Rankings

[oatmella]

I think power rankings - across sports - are based a lot on recent performance. So going by that - I would put Nathan #1 for now - clean skates at Nationals, he won GPF.

 

[Tahuu]

I would not assume that there are errors.

To get the correct number of ISU World Standings points to the left of a skater's name (which determine the rankings), it is *not* as simple as adding up all the points shown to the right of a skater's name.

Since you didn't assume there is error in the ISU world standing update and cited the rules for getting the ranking points, can you check the ranking point of one skater (not all, not top 20) to confirm that ranking point ISU listed is correct?

From what I have checked the raw scores in the columns to the right of the skaters' names are obtained following the rules.

 

[ice coverage]

Since you didn't assume there is error in the ISU world standing update and cited the rules for getting the ranking points, can you check the ranking point of one skater (not all, not top 20) to confirm that ranking point ISU listed is correct?

From what I have checked the raw scores in the columns to the right of the skaters' names are obtained following the rules.

4940 for Shoma:

1080 + 756 (ISU championships/OWG)
720 + 720 + 454 + 400 (GPs/GPF -- only best four results count, as per rule above)
300 + 300 + 210 (Internationals)​

4802 for Nathan:

1200 + 588
800 + 800 + 504 + 400
300 + 210​

 

[Mathman]

I would not assume that there are errors.

To get the correct number of ISU World Standings points to the left of a skater's name (which determine the rankings), it is *not* as simple as adding up all the points shown to the right of a skater's name. ...

I just spent half an hour trying to understand whether the document that you quote says, just add up all those numbers, or whether it says to do something different. If so, I was not able to figure out what.

I could not come up with the numbers on the left beside each skater's name no matter how hard I tried. I thought it might have something to do with removing some old results when new results become available. (?)

Edit: Never mind.

 

[Tahuu]

4940 for Shoma:

1080 + 756 (ISU championships/OWG)
720 + 720 + 454 + 400 (GPs/GPF -- only best four results count, as per rule above)
300 + 300 + 210 (Internationals)​

4802 for Nathan:

1200 + 588
800 + 800 + 504 + 400
300 + 210​

You are right. I looked at Keegan's 2778, which is the sum of the raw data, and thought that's it. Sorry for my mistake.

 

[oatmella]

I’m hoping that by 4CC, we’ll have heard more and/or have a better sense of how much time Nathan is going to have to prep for Worlds.

I don’t know if we’ll be getting additional Nathan news by 4CC. He just did press at Nationals.

He will at least have the week before Worlds (his Spring Break) to train with Raf, and may be taking additional time off from school as well. From https://olympics.nbcsports.com/2019/01/27/nathan-chen-three-peats-as-us-national-champion/

‘The coach nevertheless said again he hopes Chen can take more time away from Yale to train with him in California, to which Chen chuckled and replied, “of course.” Arutunian thought the two weeks they spent together over the holidays were a significant part of his success at this nationals’

‘If Chen has to miss class time, it likely would be more valuable for him to do it for training time with his coach closer to worlds.
That is what Arutunian wants.’

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

It was strong on a technical level, but I’m not convinced? It’s Nathan’s first clean SP this year. His current best international SP score is 7 points back of Hanyu’s worst (the one with an invalid spin). Seven points isn’t fatal, but it’s a deeper wound than it was before the new SoV. I think Nathan is very, very strong, but I also don’t think he has room for a messy SP and/or a fall in the free skate unless Hanyu is also messy (and it depends on how the TP feels about Shoma). I’m also not blind to how ambitious his current training regime is — I think it’s awesome he’s been able to balance school and skating, but I don’t think he’s absolutely at the head of the pack. He, Shoma, and Hanyu are 100% the clear front runners and well ahead of the rest of the field, but the relative distance between first and third isn’t much.

Also, I’m not convinced that I should give Nathan the benefit of the doubt on repeating two clean skates at Worlds while juggling Yale. And if I just take your word for it that I can expect Nathan to repeat that kind of performance and a 300+ score, then there’s no reason I can’t extend the same benefit of the doubt to Hanyu, who won the Olympics while injured and is, as far as we know, returning to competition at Worlds while having had an actual chance to heal. But, uh, I should just take it on your assertion that Nathan is definitely going to repeat his Nationals performance but Hanyu won’t even manage to repeat his level at Helsinki? 404. Underlying logic could not be found.

The skaters who would get the biggest bump in my rankings at the moment are Samarin (who’s underrated in general but is absolutely not a PCS skater), Kolyada (the judges are waiting to give you the marks, my dude, now be healthy, please), Boyang (assuming he repeats his Nats performance at 4CC, he’s absolutely back in the top 5 and can easily overtake anyone who makes an error). Cha is still in fourth. Rizzo gets a sizable bump for medaling at Euros and not only rotating the 4T but landing it. Keegan falls back to the very bottom or outright of the top ten after a rocky season so far, but this is why I’m waiting for 4CC — if Keegan puts together two clean skates, he’s absolutely in the 6-10 mix.

I base rankings primarily on recent goings on, and weigh them less on previous ones. Chen won the GPF and just put on a masterful set of skates at Nationals - which he did last year before slaying at Worlds.

Of course, Hanyu can also put out a performance that could win Worlds, but he's been out for months and would not be the skater I would wager to win at THIS point in time. I have to see what kind of competition form he is in to actually see if he could compete with performances like those that Nathan put out (and by compete, it would have to be better than what he put out in the GP this season). Even if he could, Nathan's PCS has risen and his difficulty is greater than Hanyu's (and Nathan isn't even maxing out difficulty that he's previously executed in competition, on multiple occasions), so it would be close IMO.

Regarding juggling Yale, Chen is juggling Yale and gave one of the best competitions of his career. 6 quads over two programs with "watered down" quads in his SP and no 4S or 4L. And I don't understand how you in one breath say we can't expect Nathan to repeat that kind of performance with a 300+ score, and in the next breath you're optimistic that Boyang will repeat his Nats performance in his next competition.

Power rankings are just a prediction based on what's been going on. There's nothing saying that a skater can't absolutely slay one competition and then bomb the next one. Or slay both. Or bomb both. A skater could be slated to be a favourite for gold but then bomb the SP and take themselves out of it (see: Asada in 2014 Olympics/Chen in 2018 Olympics). But power rankings (or at least how I consider them) should be based on what's recently been going on and are subject to change.


For example, I had Kovtun higher than Kolyada after Russian nationals, and Samarin in 3rd. Now I'd be inclined to put Samarin as the leading Russian followed by a tossup between Kolyada and Kovtun based on Euros.

It's also hard to just let a skater have the top spot when they haven't been competing in months. Like, should Osmond get the top spot of the ladies rankings if she returns to competition? I certainly wouldn't give that to her until I saw how she competed.

Also, if Hanyu repeated his level at Helsinki (which was 3 months ago, mind you), it wouldn't be enough to beat what Chen just produced at Nationals. He'd need to have performances like 2017 Worlds (in the FS) or the Olympics (in 2018) to match Chen's past competition (even Nationals scoring aside), and even then, Chen has him beat on difficulty (although Hanyu definitely has better execution). If both skate absolutely cleanly, with their most recently attempted content, it will be close. Nathan's bumped his PCS stock by being the reigning World champion and GPF champion. Other than the Olympics (where he slayed everyone in the FS after an abysmal SP), he's won every event he's entered. If Hanyu manages to get his quad lutz back and/or quad loop back to competition, then a win will be far likelier and I think he'd even have room for minor errors here and there and still be able to beat out a clean Chen. But right now, my money's on Chen.

You have to also factor in Shoma who can still upset if he gets his quad loop back and stopped making errors on jumping passes that he's normally solid on. Like Hanyu, we all KNOW Shoma can produce 300 points, but like Hanyu, this season he has yet to produce any SP+LP worthy of eclipsing 300.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

I think power rankings - across sports - are based a lot on recent performance. So going by that - I would put Nathan #1 for now - clean skates at Nationals, he won GPF.

Much more succinct than my long-winded post.

 

[el henry]

I don’t know if we’ll be getting additional Nathan news by 4CC. He just did press at Nationals.

He will at least have the week before Worlds (his Spring Break) to train with Raf, and may be taking additional time off from school as well. From https://olympics.nbcsports.com/2019/01/27/nathan-chen-three-peats-as-us-national-champion/

‘The coach nevertheless said again he hopes Chen can take more time away from Yale to train with him in California, to which Chen chuckled and replied, “of course.” Arutunian thought the two weeks they spent together over the holidays were a significant part of his success at this nationals’

‘If Chen has to miss class time, it likely would be more valuable for him to do it for training time with his coach closer to worlds.
That is what Arutunian wants.’

Thanks for the article. Of course that's what Raf wants; he's the coach. IIRC, Raf was sort of noncommittal about Nathan practicing at Yale in the first place.

Words cannot express how impressed I am by Nathan just saying, this is my life, up and going to Yale and pulling all this off. (Plus his college is JE. So was spousal unit's. Even if it is 50 years later)

I think Nathan will do what's best for Nathan, meaning Nathan the student *and* Nathan the skater. So when he says "sure" it's like "sure, Raf, I know what you want. We'll see"

 

[oatmella]

I don’t think Yuzu has done 4Lo this season with positive GOE, and as far as I know, he hasn’t attempted 4Lz. I’m not sure how realistic it is to expect he will be executing these jumps well after his injury, but anything is possible.

Sure, Nathan only skated a clean SP once this season, but Yuzu has not skated clean SP+LP in competition this season.

 

[Atlantis]

I don’t think Yuzu has done 4Lo this season with positive GOE, and as far as I know, he hasn’t attempted 4Lz. I’m not sure how realistic it is to expect he will be executing these jumps well after his injury, but anything is possible.

He did only two quad loops this season, one was GOE +2,10 at ACI and the other was UR, GOE -2,14 in Helsinki. And Yuzu did get his quad loop back just in time for the olympics and he had only three months after injury then. Now he has four. I think it's very possible that he's gonna get this jump back.

 

[oatmella]

Sorry, I missed his 4Lo at ACI.

I haven’t seen 4Lz from him for over a year (correct me if I’m wrong here). Similar to Nathan’s 4Lo - which I don’t expect to see back anytime soon.

 

[Atlantis]

Sorry, I missed his 4Lo at ACI.

I haven’t seen 4Lz from him for over a year (correct me if I’m wrong here). Similar to Nathan’s 4Lo - which I don’t expect to see back anytime soon.

No, you are not wrong here. He didn't even jump 3Lz in competition this season (probably was just being cautious since he did one(?) in practice) so, of course, there was no talking about 4Lz. Now that he has another injury to overcome the chances that he's gonna train that jump are non-existent, I guess. And for the next season his goal is 4A, so I don't expect to see 4Lz from him ever again.

 

[lzxnl]

He did only two quad loops this season, one was GOE +2,10 at ACI and the other was UR, GOE -2,14 in Helsinki. And Yuzu did get his quad loop back just in time for the olympics and he had only three months after injury then. Now he has four. I think it's very possible that he's gonna get this jump back.

I believe Yuzuru's injury isn't as serious now too. It was stated by Brian, and was also evidenced by how he was able to finish his FS and even land three quads.

 

[Shanshani]

Boyang surely deserves another bump after 4CC--he's looking ready to peak for World's. I'm so glad late season Boyang is finally here. If he can add back the 4S he'll be a serious threat if one of the top 3 falter.

Yuzu won't drop his 4Lo, imo. He only dropped it at Rostelecom because he was skating on a sprained ankle. It'll be back for World's. I don't think we'll see the 4Lz back for a long time though, if ever. He'll land the 4A before that.

 

[century2009]

Boyang surely deserves another bump after 4CC--he's looking ready to peak for World's. I'm so glad late season Boyang is finally here. If he can add back the 4S he'll be a serious threat if one of the top 3 falter.

Yuzu won't drop his 4Lo, imo. He only dropped it at Rostelecom because he was skating on a sprained ankle. It'll be back for World's. I don't think we'll see the 4Lz back for a long time though, if ever. He'll land the 4A before that.

The 4L is how he got injured recently, right? If it is, I dont see it coming back also because it is the same ankle as last time and do think it will cause even more damage, but his doctor would know better.

So he will max out at 3 quads. I think he needs that 4L to even compete with Shoma because I see Shoma do 4 quads.

And for Nathan, he probably will do 4 quads min, but can see him put back the 4S, which is crazy.

 

[Shanshani]

The 4L is how he got injured recently, right? If it is, I dont see it coming back also because it is the same ankle as last time and do think it will cause even more damage, but his doctor would know better.

So he will max out at 3 quads. I think he needs that 4L to even compete with Shoma because I see Shoma do 4 quads.

And for Nathan, he probably will do 4 quads min, but can see him put back the 4S, which is crazy.

I don’t see why the ankle thing would matter to whether he adds back 4Lo—it’s not like he lands on a different ankle for his other jumps. He’s had the 4Lo for a few years now, so one injury isn’t going to make him stop jumping it. The 4Lz was a different case, that injury was worse and he hadn’t had the jump for that long. If Yuzu thinks he needs the 4Lo to win, I’m pretty sure he’ll do it. The only way I see him not doing it is if he’s either in much worse condition than expected, or if Nathan and Shoma do poorly enough in the SP that it isn’t necessary.

 

[century2009]

I don’t see why the ankle thing would matter to whether he adds back 4Lo—it’s not like he lands on a different ankle for his other jumps. He’s had the 4Lo for a few years now, so one injury isn’t going to make him stop jumping it. The 4Lz was a different case, that injury was worse and he hadn’t had the jump for that long. If Yuzu thinks he needs the 4Lo to win, I’m pretty sure he’ll do it. The only way I see him not doing it is if he’s either in much worse condition than expected, or if Nathan and Shoma do poorly enough in the SP that it isn’t necessary.

The issue is the injury is from the same place as the previous one when it was really major issue with the 4Lz. If it gets injured again, it will be much worst of an effect. It looks like that it really is not strongly healed, and still damaged.

Anyways, I hope he adds back that 4Lo because he will need with Nathan in particular. I think Nathan will push for 5 quads and add back the 4S for Worlds.

It is pretty exciting among the 3 men and the battle is on.

 

[LindaTNo1]

In the words of Coach Brian Orser, "Never underestimate Mr. Hanyu. " There is a lot more to winning not just the jumps.

 

[century2009]

In the words of Coach Brian Orser, "Never underestimate Mr. Hanyu. " There is a lot more to winning not just the jumps.

I think it is the other way around that people are underestimating and putting him down Nathan.

People have been devaluing Nathan that he doesnt have the GOEs and PCs, when he has on the ISU paper matching Hanyu and Shoma and he has the highest recorded GOE of any element.

That National competition heard around the World was crazy scary good. The best he has put out. And those elements and his skating skills/performance are even better.

That 4T3T was just stunning. And his 4F and 4Lz is back in action receiving very high GOEs rightfully.

He has worked hard and it shows. And the time with Raf and the choreos have done wonders while being at Yale.

I dont know how he will prepare for Worlds, but if he takes sometime to focus and with Raf like here. He really excels.