I would not assume that there are errors.
To get the correct number of ISU World Standings points to the left of a skater's name (which determine the rankings), it is *not* as simple as adding up all the points shown to the right of a skater's name.
Since you didn't assume there is error in the ISU world standing update and cited the rules for getting the ranking points, can you check the ranking point of one skater (not all, not top 20) to confirm that ranking point ISU listed is correct?
From what I have checked the raw scores in the columns to the right of the skaters' names are obtained following the rules.
I would not assume that there are errors.
To get the correct number of ISU World Standings points to the left of a skater's name (which determine the rankings), it is *not* as simple as adding up all the points shown to the right of a skater's name. ...
4940 for Shoma:
1080 + 756 (ISU championships/OWG)
720 + 720 + 454 + 400 (GPs/GPF -- only best four results count, as per rule above)
300 + 300 + 210 (Internationals)
4802 for Nathan:
1200 + 588
800 + 800 + 504 + 400
300 + 210
I’m hoping that by 4CC, we’ll have heard more and/or have a better sense of how much time Nathan is going to have to prep for Worlds.
It was strong on a technical level, but I’m not convinced? It’s Nathan’s first clean SP this year. His current best international SP score is 7 points back of Hanyu’s worst (the one with an invalid spin). Seven points isn’t fatal, but it’s a deeper wound than it was before the new SoV. I think Nathan is very, very strong, but I also don’t think he has room for a messy SP and/or a fall in the free skate unless Hanyu is also messy (and it depends on how the TP feels about Shoma). I’m also not blind to how ambitious his current training regime is — I think it’s awesome he’s been able to balance school and skating, but I don’t think he’s absolutely at the head of the pack. He, Shoma, and Hanyu are 100% the clear front runners and well ahead of the rest of the field, but the relative distance between first and third isn’t much.
Also, I’m not convinced that I should give Nathan the benefit of the doubt on repeating two clean skates at Worlds while juggling Yale. And if I just take your word for it that I can expect Nathan to repeat that kind of performance and a 300+ score, then there’s no reason I can’t extend the same benefit of the doubt to Hanyu, who won the Olympics while injured and is, as far as we know, returning to competition at Worlds while having had an actual chance to heal. But, uh, I should just take it on your assertion that Nathan is definitely going to repeat his Nationals performance but Hanyu won’t even manage to repeat his level at Helsinki? 404. Underlying logic could not be found.
The skaters who would get the biggest bump in my rankings at the moment are Samarin (who’s underrated in general but is absolutely not a PCS skater), Kolyada (the judges are waiting to give you the marks, my dude, now be healthy, please), Boyang (assuming he repeats his Nats performance at 4CC, he’s absolutely back in the top 5 and can easily overtake anyone who makes an error). Cha is still in fourth. Rizzo gets a sizable bump for medaling at Euros and not only rotating the 4T but landing it. Keegan falls back to the very bottom or outright of the top ten after a rocky season so far, but this is why I’m waiting for 4CC — if Keegan puts together two clean skates, he’s absolutely in the 6-10 mix.
I think power rankings - across sports - are based a lot on recent performance. So going by that - I would put Nathan #1 for now - clean skates at Nationals, he won GPF.
I don’t know if we’ll be getting additional Nathan news by 4CC. He just did press at Nationals.
He will at least have the week before Worlds (his Spring Break) to train with Raf, and may be taking additional time off from school as well. From https://olympics.nbcsports.com/2019/01/27/nathan-chen-three-peats-as-us-national-champion/
‘The coach nevertheless said again he hopes Chen can take more time away from Yale to train with him in California, to which Chen chuckled and replied, “of course.” Arutunian thought the two weeks they spent together over the holidays were a significant part of his success at this nationals’
‘If Chen has to miss class time, it likely would be more valuable for him to do it for training time with his coach closer to worlds.
That is what Arutunian wants.’
I don’t think Yuzu has done 4Lo this season with positive GOE, and as far as I know, he hasn’t attempted 4Lz. I’m not sure how realistic it is to expect he will be executing these jumps well after his injury, but anything is possible.
Sorry, I missed his 4Lo at ACI.
I haven’t seen 4Lz from him for over a year (correct me if I’m wrong here). Similar to Nathan’s 4Lo - which I don’t expect to see back anytime soon.
He did only two quad loops this season, one was GOE +2,10 at ACI and the other was UR, GOE -2,14 in Helsinki. And Yuzu did get his quad loop back just in time for the olympics and he had only three months after injury then. Now he has four. I think it's very possible that he's gonna get this jump back.
Boyang surely deserves another bump after 4CC--he's looking ready to peak for World's. I'm so glad late season Boyang is finally here. If he can add back the 4S he'll be a serious threat if one of the top 3 falter.
Yuzu won't drop his 4Lo, imo. He only dropped it at Rostelecom because he was skating on a sprained ankle. It'll be back for World's. I don't think we'll see the 4Lz back for a long time though, if ever. He'll land the 4A before that.
The 4L is how he got injured recently, right? If it is, I dont see it coming back also because it is the same ankle as last time and do think it will cause even more damage, but his doctor would know better.
So he will max out at 3 quads. I think he needs that 4L to even compete with Shoma because I see Shoma do 4 quads.
And for Nathan, he probably will do 4 quads min, but can see him put back the 4S, which is crazy.
I don’t see why the ankle thing would matter to whether he adds back 4Lo—it’s not like he lands on a different ankle for his other jumps. He’s had the 4Lo for a few years now, so one injury isn’t going to make him stop jumping it. The 4Lz was a different case, that injury was worse and he hadn’t had the jump for that long. If Yuzu thinks he needs the 4Lo to win, I’m pretty sure he’ll do it. The only way I see him not doing it is if he’s either in much worse condition than expected, or if Nathan and Shoma do poorly enough in the SP that it isn’t necessary.
In the words of Coach Brian Orser, "Never underestimate Mr. Hanyu. " There is a lot more to winning not just the jumps.