2019-20 Ladies' power ranking

[el henry]

Yeah, but that’s not what happened though then someone should probably say: my prediction is the same as yours, except I’d have this skater (Medvedeva is this case) higher.
What happened was “you put Medvedeva lower because you’re biased”.
Isn’t the same thing, is it?

I did no go back long enough in the thread to see the exchange, so I apologize if I misunderstood.

I generally do not like to attribute *any* decisions to bias

 

[Thrashergurl]

I didn’t realize that I was bickering or arguing with anyone. I simply questioned how one can continually push for one skater over the other despite actual scores from the actual competitions this current season. I don’t really feel a need to create my own power rankings. These are entertaining.

This doesn’t seem to be a prediction thread. It’s a power rankings thread- very similar to the NFL power rankings. I just assumed it’s based on actual results vs fan bias.

As I said, always entertaining though

 

[nussnacker]

I didn’t realize that I was bickering or arguing with anyone. I simply questioned how one can continually push for one skater over the other despite actual scores from the actual competitions this current season. I don’t really feel a need to create my own power rankings. These are entertaining.

This doesn’t seem to be a prediction thread. It’s a power rankings thread- very similar to the NFL power rankings. I just assumed it’s based on actual results vs fan bias.

As I said, always entertaining though

It’s based on the results, however, taking ALL results into account, not just the ones you personally want to be taken into account. Medvedeva‘s performance at SC was an unfortunate one that ultimately killed her chances for gpf, while Zagitova is still is in for it.
I also believe clean Zagitova will score higher than clean Medvedeva (this has been the case for ALL their encounters except Russian nationals 2017), and that probability of having clean performances from Zagitova is higher than those of Medvedeva (although not perfect, Zagitova delivered a higher number of cleaner performances this season this far).
It’s my subjective assessment based on their performances this season so far.
The actual results aren’t just about the dry numbers, but also actual performances and expected value (if you’ve done some probability theory, these concepts might be familiar). Nothing to do with fan biases, no matter how much you want that to be true.
If you want to look at dry numbers, then exporting a list from isu sb list to be your personal ranking would be your way.
Some people would like to take more than that into consideration, and that’s quite the opposite of being biased.
I consider this ranking to be a list, of „IF“ these ladies were to meet at one competition, how they would rank. Thus, sort of like worlds prediction.

Somehow, not creating a ranking where Medvedeva is #1, or at least ahead of Zagitova, is considered to be a „fan bias“ by some users here, lol.

 

[el henry]

It’s based on the results, however, taking ALL results into account, not just the ones you personally want to be taken into account. Medvedeva‘s performance at SC was an unfortunate one that ultimately killed her chances for gpf, while Zagitova is still is in for it.
I also believe clean Zagitova will score higher than clean Medvedeva (this has been the case for ALL their encounters except Russian nationals 2017), and that probability of having clean performances from Zagitova is higher than those of Medvedeva (although not perfect, Zagitova delivered a higher number of cleaner performances this season this far).
It’s my subjective assessment based on their performances this season so far.
The actual results isn’t just about the dry numbers, but also actual performances and expected value (if you’ve done some probability theory, these concepts might be familiar). Nothing to do with fan biases, no matter how much you want that to be true.
If you want to look at dry numbers, then exporting a list from isu sb list to be your personal ranking would be your way.
Some people would like to take more than that into consideration, and that’s quite the opposite of being biased.
I consider this ranking to be a list, of „IF“ these ladies were to meet at one competition, how they would rank. Thus, sort of like worlds prediction.

Somehow, not creating a ranking where Medvedeva is #1, or at least ahead of Zagitova, is considered to be a „fan bias“ by some users here, lol.

Now I have read everything, I do want to say, somehow a fan can’t claim that Medvedeva should be ahead Zagitova using the metrics that they want to use, because they have to use the metrics *someone else* thinks are important?

My expected value and probability theory, based on the standard deviations and regression analysis (OK I didn’t do that) is that Zhenya is much much closer to Alina in performance and scoring than may be reflected in many of these lists. And that rejecting the ISU list out of pocket, no matter how much anyone would like to ignore it as they prefer skaters who are further down on the list, does not make sense.

Now that’s my viewpoint. It could be right or it could be wrong. Just like everyone else’s

 

[el henry]

And dreaded double post to say, I wouldn’t change much of the listings I’ve seen here, and I am talking about what is close and what is not close. I certainly don’t know enough about all the ladies’ performances in all their comps ever to opine (ask me about the men)

And if I had favorites, they would be Zhenya and Young You. Neither of whom I would put in the top five.

 

[gotoschool]

And dreaded double post to say, I wouldn’t change much of the listings I’ve seen here, and I am talking about what is close and what is not close. I certainly don’t know enough about all the ladies’ performances in all their comps ever to opine (ask me about the men)

And if I had favorites, they would be Zhenya and Young You. Neither of whom I would put in the top five.

Young You is also one of my current favorites along with Rika Kihira. My own personal power ratings are the skaters whose performances draw me in to want to watch them the most.

 

[Ziotic]

My only confusion of when people place Anna in the 230+ range when that has yet to be achieved with 3 competitions this far?
I understand that it’s an “in theory” rating based on potential. But then why aren’t others afforded the same potential?

 

[ec00834]

My only confusion of when people place Anna in the 230+ range when that has yet to be achieved with 3 competitions this far?
I understand that it’s an “in theory” rating based on potential. But then why aren’t others afforded the same potential?

And Rika has not achieved 240 but she has the potential

 

[nussnacker]

Now I have read everything, I do want to say, somehow a fan can’t claim that Medvedeva should be ahead Zagitova using the metrics that they want to use, because they have to use the metrics *someone else* thinks are important?

My expected value and probability theory, based on the standard deviations and regression analysis (OK I didn’t do that) is that Zhenya is much much closer to Alina in performance and scoring than may be reflected in many of these lists. And that rejecting the ISU list out of pocket, no matter how much anyone would like to ignore it as they prefer skaters who are further down on the list, does not make sense.

Now that’s my viewpoint. It could be right or it could be wrong. Just like everyone else’s

Ummm... what?
No one said that. People can have any ranking and any criteria. Fans can claim whatever they want, that’s exactly what’s being proposed to be done (instead of calling users to be biased ) .
No one said „Trashergurl, don’t have a ranking based on SB list“. Can you point where exactly I (or other users) said that people should have rankings based on a specific criteria?
I don’t recall anything like that. I simply said, that having a ranking based on a criteria, different from what certain users (thrashergurl) want to consider, does not automatically make that particular ranking biased.

Then people tried to calmly explain why they’ve made the choices they’ve made, but that was hitting a deaf wall.

Long story short: Thrashergurl said that whoever does not have Medvedeva over Zagitova has a ‚fan favorite‘ and ’biased’ list.
I simply said that this might not be the case, and can be the result of quite the opposite, and considering multiple factors.

I also don’t see anyone ‚rejecting“ or „ignoring“ isu sb list, neither did I say that should be done. You made that up. I only said that people might be considering more than that, meaning multiple factors in conjunction, and not just the sb scores in Isolation.

To be honest, I don’t feel like talking about this again or continuing this discussion, i have said the same thing essentially over and over again, but I have a feeling some deliberately misinterpret things to fit their argumentation, of maybe they don’t bother to read.

 

[Ziotic]

And Rika has not achieved 240 but she has the potential

Agreed! I just don’t see her getting the same bump in ranking for her potential for most of the lists posted here.

 

[el henry]

whole post

Thank you for answering; I am sorry we appear to be talking at cross purposes. I will not revisit the subject

 

[lusterfan]

Lengthy, but here's what I think about the season so far. I included their highest score at a competition this season just for reference's sake (not necessarily for the ranking of this list).

1. Sasha Trusova 241.02
Her monstrous base value and amazing consistency are making her the favorite to become world champion this season. Although she has several quads, she isn't as invincible as many people make her out to be. She may get away with one fall on a quad, but two or more will find her in a precarious position. Her "weaknesses" will be lacking a SP lead without a 3A and not being scored as favorably in PCS. PCS will be dependent on the technical panel - if she is kept around the 67 area, while Alena and Rika get well over 72, things may get dicey. Especially since Alena and Rika have both 3A and PCS, Sasha cannot make too many mistakes. She performed prior to the GP judges becoming more strict, so we won't know exactly how comparable her scores are. But her jumps rarely UR (even quads), and she doesn't have edge issues so strict panels may actually benefit her.

With that said, I just wanted to play devil's advocate. Sasha has been insanely consistent with her jumps (quads included), so any placement aside from 1st will be considered an upset.

2. Alena Kostornaia 236.00
Her score is continuing to grow. With the exception of her 3A's, her jumps seem iron solid right now. Non-jump elements also deservedly receive upper tier GOE's from judges. I have no doubt that her team is drilling those 3A's right now. Her senior debut PCS is already monstrous, but will likely continue to grow. With a few mistakes from Sasha, judges will gladly push Alena to the top. For perspective, Alena's highest score is 236 compared to Sasha's 241.02. Both have a lot of room to grow their scores, but with a perfect SP Alena can easily smash the 241.02 total, while Sasha will need to land every quad (4S to be exact) to grow her score. Alena will need judges to reward her with a (deserved) PCS cushion compared to Sasha.

3. Rika Kihira 230.33
Rika has essentially the same content as Alena, but Rika is just a smudge weaker currently. Alena is receiving more GOE in jumps and non-jumps. Rika has a slight lead in PCS right now, but Alena's PCS is more likely to grow. Rika's 3A's are less likely to UR like Alena's, but Rika doesn't land them as consistently. We will see in NHK how judges rank them. For now, I'm placing Alena higher until Rika brings back her lutzes, but really it could go either way between these two. To even have a shot at challenging Sasha, Rika will need her lutzes, 4S, two perfectly skated programs, AND judge backing in the PCS zone. A few mistakes will find her fall off the podium easily, as #4 and #5 are hungry.

4. Anna Shcherbakova 227.76
Sad to say, but Anna is looking to be the weakest of Eteri's new seniors right now. Despite including content like 4Lz+3T, 4Lz, and 3Lz+3Lo, judges are challenging her the most. Anna's PCS is about the same as Sasha's, while Anna's technical BV is lower than Sasha's. If both are relatively clean, Sasha will edge Anna out. Anna can easily skate her way to #2, but I'm hesitant to rank her at #2 until she beats Sasha/Alena/Rika head-on. GPF will be very revealing. While I think Anna will score higher than Alina, Alina is still capable of scoring very well (with judges backing her to the moon). It's crazy that Anna and her 4Lz's might lose to Alina, but that's just what could happen with judge favoring. I don't want to count Anna out though, as she's the reigning Russian Senior National Champion afterall!

5. Alina Zagitova 216.06
She was lackluster at her first GP, but she's not out of the top yet. Her PCS will continue to remain in the god-tier, but she will need to be perfect to have a shot against the BV advantage of the #1-#4 above her. Low season's best score for her right now, but she did receive a massive score at Japan Open (I know it's a faux competition, but she was very sharp there and a performance like that at a GP would still score high). I won't count her out until she soundly loses to #1-#4 at GPF and/or Russian Nationals. As reigning OGM and WGM, she will be backed as much as possible.

Below the Top 5, things get fuzzy. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva, Evgenia Medvedeva, Bradie Tennell, Mariah Bell, Satoko Miyahara, Kaori Sakamoto, and Young You round out my current Top 12 (in random order). Elizabet Tursynbaeva and Eunsoo Lim can sneak in to the Top 12, but not based on current results (Elizabet's injured and Eunsoo is just not quite in shape).

6. Evgenia Medvedeva 217.43
Controversial placement for some, but I don't know why people are ranking Evgenia so low. Yes, I know she's been inconsistent but look at the numbers people! Evgenia is still easily at the very top, with PCS and GOE backing from the judges! Her season's best score is higher than Alina's. That doesn't mean too much, but it's still a testament to how well Evgenia is still scoring even without being perfect. And even with a meltdown at Skate Canada, she still totaled 209.62. That's comparable to clean skates from Bradie, Satoko, Mariah, and higher than what we've seen from Liza or Kaori.

She was great at SCI, but faltered at Shanghai and Skate Canada. You can say Shanghai was due to sickness, but Skate Canada was 100% mental. She still nailed her FS, so I wouldn't lump her in the same inconsistent realm as Eunsoo or Wakaba, who are making mistakes consistently across both programs. Maybe I'm optimistic, but I trust that Evgenia can pull out two clean skates and receive a monstrous score!

7. Bradie Tennell 216.14
She's sharper than ever before! She works hard and is finding a style that works for her. Her jumps occasionally receive UR and people argue that she's not super artistic, but she's been very consistent. Her spins should also receive more credit! Her PCS is getting a boost, and being US #1 will only help her case. If she loses to Mariah, that's when things may get iffy. Controversial choice, but for now I think she's a solid #7 for me.

8. Satoko Miyahara 211.18
It was a toss-up between her and Mariah for me, but Satoko has more reputation. That counts more than people expect. However, her spot is still at the mercy of the judging panel (UR's and PCS). CoC slapped her with UR's, but rewarded her with great PCS. Until she gets absolutely ripped apart by the judges though, I will still place her at a solid #8.

9. Mariah Bell 212.89
Mariah is on the rise and ready to fight for US #1. I'm hesitant to rank her too high just because of a good skate (look at how Young You ended up after her bronze at Skate Canada). Although she performed well at Nebelhorn too, I think one more solid skate and I'll be convinced. As mentioned above, I think she's a toss-up with Satoko, but Mariah has more upside. She's less prone to UR and can still grow in GOE and PCS. However, I think she may need to beat Bradie to receive more backing as US #1 - she has the least established reputation compared to those above her on the list currently. But I wouldn't be surprised to see her soar, as she's looking fit and ambitious this season!

10. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva 214.38
Liza's score has been concerningly dropping with each competition. Her planned jump content is just disappointing for a skater of her jumping caliber (I mean, 3Lz+SEQ+2A???). Until she fixes her programs, I don't think judges want to reward her anymore. She had the opportunity at two GP silvers, but ended up with two bronzes with two sub-210 scores. It hurts to see a competitor with three 3A's this low in the rankings, but her other content needs improvement - she can't win off of 3A's alone. #10 might be harsh, but judges are losing favor in her. Missing GPF and not being anywhere near the top in her own country will further lower her spot on this ranking. While she can still score higher than #5-9, I don't think she's getting there without changes.

11. You Young 217.49
You has a high season's best, but that was only due to her nailing the 3A in the SP. Without that status symbol, judges won't be on her side. She's nailed that jump only once this season, so I'm hesitant to rank her more highly. She hasn't built a high enough PCS reputation to be making mistakes. What I do admire though is her consistency with the non-3A jumps. She nails them almost all the time and receives good GOE, but she needs to nail the 3A in order to start earning the judges' favor. She has potential to crack the Top 6, but will need the 3A.

12. Kaori Sakamoto 202.47
Kaori tends to peak later in the season and judges have shown a willingness to back her, but for now I cannot rank her any higher. I will expect her to rise near Nationals and Worlds, but she may lose the judges' favor if she's no longer perceived as Japanese #2. Satoko may be reclaiming that spot, and the points that come with it. If she can be consistent though, judges will back her to the moon (look at 2019 Worlds and her Skate America SP score).

 

[thedeclan]

post

I agree with your assessment!! I would probably have Tuktamysheva slightly higher, but generally I think you hit the nail on the head (especially when it comes to Medvedeva).

 

[zounger]

1. Kostornaia
2. Trusova
3. Kihira
4. Medvedeva
5. Shcherbakova
6. Sakamoto
7. Tuktamysheva
8. Young
9. Tennell
10. Bell

Main national team rankings.

Russia
1. Trusova
2. Shcherbakova
3. Medvedeva

Japan
1. Kihira
2. Miyahara
3. Sakamoto

USA
1. Tennell
2. Bell

Korea
1. Young
2. Lim

 

[nussnacker]

1. Kostornaia
2. Trusova
3. Kihira
4. Medvedeva
5. Shcherbakova
6. Sakamoto
7. Tuktamysheva
8. Young
9. Tennell
10. Bell

Main national team rankings.

Russia
1. Trusova
2. Shcherbakova
3. Medvedeva

Japan
1. Kihira
2. Miyahara
3. Sakamoto

USA
1. Tennell
2. Bell

Korea
1. Young

Korea has 2 spots!

 

[zounger]

Korea has 2 spots!

Right! Fixed.

 

[vesperalvioletta]

1. Kostornaia
2. Trusova
3. Kihira
4. Medvedeva
5. Shcherbakova
6. Sakamoto
7. Tuktamysheva
8. Young
9. Tennell
10. Bell

Main national team rankings.

Russia
1. Trusova
2. Shcherbakova
3. Medvedeva

Japan
1. Kihira
2. Miyahara
3. Sakamoto

USA
1. Tennell
2. Bell

Korea
1. Young
2. Lim

I'm confused by your national team rankings. Even with their bias towards Medvedeva, I can't see the Russian Federation picking her for the Euros/Worlds team over Kostornaya or Zagitova. Personally, I'd put Tuktamysheva ahead of her as well.

 

[lusterfan]

I'm confused by your national team rankings. Even with their bias towards Medvedeva, I can't see the Russian Federation picking her for the Euros/Worlds team over Kostornaya or Zagitova. Personally, I'd put Tuktamysheva ahead of her as well.

Yeah I'm confused too - Kostornaia is listed as #1 overall, but not even in the Top 3 within her own country? Also strange that Zagitova doesn't even make Top 10 in your list ...

 

[nussnacker]

Yeah I'm confused too - Kostornaia is listed as #1 overall, but not even in the Top 3 within her own country? Also strange that Zagitova doesn't even make Top 10 in your list ...

I think this scenario is possible if Kostornaya wins GPF (which makes her rank #1 overall) and then completely bombs nationals, which rules her out from the national team.
Possibly, zounger is also predicting Zagitova will fail at NHK and nationals, hence will be out of top 10?
If that’s what he/she had in mind, it makes sense.
It’s also possible the first ranking has a different meaning to him/her.

 

[zounger]

I think there are some differentiation in the way of scoring domestically and internationally which will lead to fluctuation of the overall ranking between national team and global.