2019-20 Ladies' power ranking

[lusterfan]

I've been thinking about this today: as we continue looking towards Worlds, with the quad limitation in the SP, the best thing that non-triple axel, non-Russian skaters can do to help themselves is to do really well in the SP in hopes of skating as late in the final group as possible to force larger PCS gaps. If they're really lucky and Anna/Sasha make mistakes, they could push them into the second half of the second-to-last group. There are realistically only so many skaters that can be ahead of Anna/Sasha after the SP. Aliona, Rika, and You have the triple axels and if they land them, that's basically half of the final group filled. Skaters like Kaori (when she's peaking), Mariah, and Bradie could do well enough in the SP to maybe compete for some of the other spots. Maybe Eunsoo too if she can get her jumps back and consistent.

Of course, if Anna and Sasha land all or most of their quads, there's not much that can be done, but this seems like the best gameplan for skaters that can't upgrade their tech content this season. This would also really help Rika and Aliona, who are closer to the quadsters in scores and for whom medals may be decided more on the margins of PCS/GOE/deductions for falls. Ironically, there are many skaters right now that are making errors in the SP and doing much better in the FS.

(Under the assumption that Sasha, Alyona, Anna make the team)

SP order also goes by World Standings. Currently, top 6 that will make it through to the final group: Satoko, Kaori, Rika, Bradie, Tursynbaeva, Bell. Sasha will probably surpass Eunsoo (7th), and have enough to surpass Bell (after GPF and Euros). If Tursynbaeva doesn't make it to Worlds, Sasha's into the final group. If Zagitova/Tuktamysheva/Medvedeva make it to the team, they will push Sasha back out. It's complicated, but Shcherbakova and Kostornaia will most likely be in the 2nd to last group.

Not being in the last group sometimes makes judges subconsciously give lower scores. Not that this would matter that much, but it would in tight situations (and to determine FS final group).

 

[theharleyquinn]

(Under the assumption that Sasha, Alyona, Anna make the team)

SP order also goes by World Standings. Currently, top 6 that will make it through to the final group: Satoko, Kaori, Rika, Bradie, Tursynbaeva, Bell. Sasha will probably surpass Eunsoo (7th), and have enough to surpass Bell (after GPF and Euros). If Tursynbaeva doesn't make it to Worlds, Sasha's into the final group. If Zagitova/Tuktamysheva/Medvedeva make it to the team, they will push Sasha back out. It's complicated, but Shcherbakova and Kostornaia will most likely be in the 2nd to last group.

Not being in the last group sometimes makes judges subconsciously give lower scores. Not that this would matter that much, but it would in tight situations (and to determine FS final group).

I'm not sure if it would be enough but you have to wonder if Russia will send Sasha/Anna/Aliona to any Challengers before Worlds to give them a boost in World Standings (like Rika did last year). There's a lot of strong arguments for why it may not be worth it though.

 

[el henry]

Why would Kostornaia be in the 2nd to last group? She has a tiple axel and gets massive GOE on all her elements.

The last group (assuming all of the 3A make the world's team) would probably be Kostornaia, Trusova, Tennell, Kihira, Sakamoto, and Shcherbakova (or Lim/Miyahara). I doubt Tursynbaeva will make the last group since she's still dealing with her injury.

It doesn't matter if Kostornaia is jumping quints.

Where is she in the World Standings now? And how many points will she gain from any future comps? That is what determines where she would skate in the SP.

 

[lusterfan]

Why would Kostornaia be in the 2nd to last group? She has a tiple axel and gets massive GOE on all her elements.

The last group (assuming all of the 3A make the world's team) would probably be Kostornaia, Trusova, Tennell, Kihira, Sakamoto (who is not super consistent), and Shcherbakova (or Lim/Miyahara). I doubt Tursynbaeva will make the last group since she's still dealing with her injury.

As mentioned in my comment, that was for the Short Program Order, which is decided by World Standings.

Alyona and Anna are too far behind in points to make the final group this year (barring withdrawal from the aforementioned top WS ladies - Satoko, Kaori, Rika, Bradie, Tursynbaeva, Bell, Eunsoo, Sasha). Alyona might overtake Mariah with another Challenger or International competition, but won't overtake Sasha to go into the final group. Even if one of those Japanese ladies does not make it to Worlds, Mai Mihara and Wakaba Higuchi are very high up the list. Therefore, I doubt they'll be sent to extra competitions for WS points this season. Sasha could benefit from 300 points from a CS though, as Mariah usually goes for a 2nd Challenger/International Competition and will gain more points).

1. Satoko - 3759 (not including any GP points so this will be higher, but she will be in the final group regardless)
2. Kaori - 3724
3. Rika - 3631
4. Bradie - 3330
5. Elizabet - 3108
6. Mariah - 2847 (usually goes to another CS/IC, so she might hold onto 6th)
7. Eunsoo - 2488 +300 for winning Asian Open
8. Sasha - 2360 (should be able to surpass Mariah after GPF and Euros, unless Mariah gets sent to another CS/IC, which she usually does)
9. Viveca - 1931
10. Alexia - 1873
11. Alyona - 1836
12. Young - 1802
13. Laurine - 1736
14. Nicole - 1721
15. Mae - 1720
16. Anna - 1650

 

[Leelee425]

Why would Kostornaia be in the 2nd to last group? She has a tiple axel and gets massive GOE on all her elements.

The last group (assuming all of the 3A make the world's team) would probably be Kostornaia, Trusova, Tennell, Kihira, Sakamoto (who is not super consistent), and Shcherbakova (or Lim/Miyahara). I doubt Tursynbaeva will make the last group since she's still dealing with her injury.

I think they meant more the second to last group for the short program. Kosternaia will most likely be in the last group for the free skate especially if she hits her triple axel but her grouping for the short program will be determined by world ranking which will be a little lower than some because she’s a new senior and doesn’t have points from junior worlds last year like Sasha and Anna do. That’s why she was in the first group in the short at IDF.

 

[ec00834]

As mentioned in my comment, that was for the Short Program Order, which is decided by World Standings.

Alyona and Anna are too far behind in points to make the final group this year (barring withdrawl from the aforementioned top WS ladies - Satoko, Kaori, Rika, Bradie, Tursynbaeva, Bell, Eunsoo, Sasha). Even if one of those Japanese ladies does not make it to Worlds, Mai Mihara and Wakaba Higuchi are very high up the list. Therefore, I doubt they'll be sent to extra competitions for WS points this season. Sasha could benefit from 300 points from a CS though, but I'm not sure she'd be sent to a competition just for that.

Sorry my bad. That's a little worrying, I hope it won't have a huge effect on the end result.

 

[Leelee425]

Sorry my bad. That's a little worrying, I hope it won't have a huge effect on the end result.

I wouldn’t worry about it to much. If you look at the IDF example...yes she was in the first group for the short program and maybe her PCS suffered for it (they averaged just under 8.5). But by the free she was in the first group and her PCS basically rose half a point overnight. And this was only her first senior Grand Prix, they will likely grow higher. Even with what I considered to be very stingy PCS she still won by 20 points over the rest of the field. And if you look at all the scores so far she’s second only to Trusova...and IDF had the very critical tech caller compared to the other two events. So I think she’ll be ok even if she starts in the second to last group. I think she’s one of the strongest artistic skaters and that along with her 3A will get her into that final flight by the free, she may even be the leader in the short considering her training mates can’t do their quads until the free skate (at least not this year).

 

[YuBluByMe]

1. Alexandra Trusova (no change)

2. Rika Kihira (no change): Kihira still has the best 3A in the ladies’ field. On to NHK!

3. Alena Kostornaia (no change): Has a strong 3A but the axis is completely off; she's going to struggle with rotation and URs. She gets high GOES on all elements and high PCS so she’s a good match for Kihira. On to NHK!

4. Anna Scherbakova (+1) : Please don’t 4Lz+REP in China.

5. Young You (+1) : Has the most realistic shot for the final spot for GPF. I think she’ll beat Tuktamysheva in China. She’s hungrier and more ambitious. She may even win if she’s clean and Scherbakova doesn’t land her quads.

6. Alina Zagitova (-2): Last year, she would have been looking as if she’s about to burst into tears in the Kiss and Cry. It’s great to see her confident and skating with ease. I like her SP (first SP I liked from her since Swan Lake), but her FS can go in the trash can. Barring any strange scenarios, she should make GPF if she’s on the podium at NHK, regardless of placement. GPF will be a great competition to see how she ranks with quads and 3As.

7. Bradie Tennell (+1) : It’s not set in stone that she’s the #1 US lady.

8. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva (+1) : If she places second in China, she could qualify for GPF. Hopefully her and her team stopped blaming others and upgraded the difficulty of her free skate layout.

9. Satoko Miyahara (+1) : She could probably beat Tuktamysheva in China, but my prediction is that she will be off the podium.

10. Mariah Bell (new) : She will give Bradie a run for her money at US Nationals. She also has non-zero chances to qualify for GPF, but she would need a silver in Russia. I think this is unlikely to happen, but beating Zagitova in the free skate in France would probably give her confidence going forward.


Removed:

Kaori Sakamoto : A strong skater with great programs this year, but she’s just not bringing the results. Hopefully she does well at 4CC.

 

[[email protected]]

Everyone performed by now. There will be some movements in my list after national teams are announced but the gist won't change anymore. I haven't moved anyone but Liza/Kaori this week already



#1 Alexandra Trusova (240 - 250) Just land your quads, Sasha - they won't be able to touch you then

#2-3 Rika Kihira (230 - 240) NHK!, NHK!, NHK!

#2-3 Alyona Kostornaya (235 - 245) NHK!, NHK!, NHK!

#4 Anna Scherbakova (230 - 240) Anna is the most vulnerable among 3A. Mistakes on 4Lz and the "rightful" TP will ruin her score. I am happy that this jump looks more and more stable

#5 Alina Zagitova (220 - 230) NHK!, NHK!, NHK!

#6 Young You (215-225) No changes despite her CoC meltdown. She is Korea's #1, she showed that she can land 3A, and she is a very strong skater in the first place

#7-8 Bradie Tennell (210 - 220)


#7-8 Mariah Bell (210 - 220)


#9 Evgeniya Medvedeva (205 - 220) CoR! CoR! CoR! Zhenya has only theoretical chances for GPF - she has to win over Trusova. But CoR is still of utmost importance to her like CoC was for Liza. If she shines and gets the silver over Bell and Miyahara, she is still in the game. The biggest question for Rusnats will be Medvedeva or Scherbakova. I wrote this and then realized that I forgot about Alina. It's even more complicated for Medvedeva then. Another meltdown and she will join Liza in the preparation for the next season or any other activity but the preparation for main events of this season. I am excited to watch this drama live next week.


#10 -11 Satoko Miyahara (205 - 215)

I enjoy Satoko's programs this season. She is an exquisite performer with the right vehicles to show her strong sides...but jump wise. TP can do whatever they like with them depending on the mood. So, it's like a Russian roulette for her

#10-11 Kaori Sakamoto (205 - 215) new

I am bringing her back as Liza is out and Kaori has very big chances to be Japan's team member.

 

[Thrashergurl]

Still unsure how one can have Alina so high when she hasn’t had the scores of someone like Medvedeva this season and was fairly beaten in the LP by Bell. Then I remembered that this is fan favorite choices and not actual, factual numbers.

 

[ec00834]

Still unsure how one can have Alina so high when she hasn’t had the scores of someone like Medvedeva this season and was fairly beaten in the LP by Bell. Then I remembered that this is fan favorite choices and not actual, factual numbers.

Those rankings are also based on results and consistency, not just scores at different events.

 

[Thrashergurl]

The rankings in this thread or the actual ISU ladies results? I’m referring to these rankings being based in fan favorites of posters. The ISU rankings are actual scores from ladies events being compared.

 

[[email protected]]

Still unsure how one can have Alina so high when she hasn’t had the scores of someone like Medvedeva this season and was fairly beaten in the LP by Bell. Then I remembered that this is fan favorite choices and not actual, factual numbers.

This is the perceived power of skaters entering the same event or the predicted outcome of the competitions with all top skaters present. I personally was doing not that well in the prediction game during the first 2 stages of GP. But then looking at what's going on with judging I have readjusted and now I am doing much better like winning the silver at CoC predictions. Well, it would have been gold if Young You did not fall on her 3As and surely went ahead of Liza then.

And then, yes, Alina technically has a lower score from the last event. Why did it happen? There are 2 schools of thinking about that but it was discussed at length at the Russian ladies thread so that I won't bring it here. What one should take into account is that Alina has 150+ score from JO. And it's not nothing because she beat there Rika by 10 points and Bradie by 20 points. Yes, there is absolute and there is relative. The ranking is relative: how skaters fare vs. one another.

Alina is also higher than Zhenya in my personal power ranking because at this moment I believe that she will be ahead of her at Rusnats. If Zhenya shines at CoR, Alina bombs at NHK, and Zhenya is ahead of Alina at the Rusnats, of course, I shall reflect it. One thing is certain, though. One of them will leave my ranking after the Rusnats. Only the first substitute will stay. I assume that 3A will be the team. Again, I may be wrong.

 

[nussnacker]

The rankings in this thread or the actual ISU ladies results? I’m referring to these rankings being based in fan favorites of posters. The ISU rankings are actual scores from ladies events being compared.

There’ve been multiple posters posting their own rankings in this thread, it’s a subjective evaluation of scoring/ranking potential of each individual user. In most of them Alina is ahead of Evgenia, not just in the last one, and many posters provided explanations for putting skaters in certain positions. (Meaning, it has nothing to do with anyone’s favorites, rather it’s just a simple subjective evaluation)
You can create your own too, where Medevdeva stands ahead of Zagitova.

 

[el henry]

There’ve been multiple posters posting their own rankings in this thread, it’s a subjective evaluation of scoring/ranking potential of each individual user. In most of them Alina is ahead of Evgenia, not just in the last one, and many posters provided explanations for putting skaters in certain positions. (Meaning, it has nothing to do with anyone’s favorites, rather it’s just a simple subjective evaluation)
You can create your own too, where Medevdeva stands ahead of Zagitova.

And I believe @Thrashergurl is free to argue just that she believes Med is ranked too low in @Samkrut’s list, rather than construct a whole list. I do appreciate everyone taking the time to put together and give their opinions, particularly on ladies where I have no real opinions.

Jumping off, and not directed at your post, I would not give much credence to JO scores. It borders on a cheesefest, like WTT. And I like WTT and I like when my fav skaters get PBs at WTT, but it’s not equivalent to a GP score, IMO.

 

[nussnacker]

And I believe @Thrashergurl is free to argue just that she believes Med is ranked too low in @Samkrut’s list, rather than construct a whole list. I do appreciate everyone taking the time to put together and give their opinions, particularly on ladies where I have no real opinions.

Jumping off, and not directed at your post, I would not give much credence to JO scores. It borders on a cheesefest, like WTT. And I like WTT and I like when my fav skaters get PBs at WTT, but it’s not equivalent to a GP score, IMO.

It’s samkrut’s opinion, what’s there to argue about? He explained multiple times why he has certain skaters in certain positions, I’m just not sure why bicker about something that’s just a subjective list.
To me it’s as smart as arguing with predictions people make in the predictions threads.
“- I feel like this skater is going to win
- why do you think that?! That’s unfair and biased, you shouldn’t think that!”
Seems pointless to me. It’s essentially exactly the same thing, it’s a prediction thread not for a specific event, but a season prediction.
Someone puts Satoko ahead of Tuktamysheva, because he thinks Satoko will get carrots, someone does the opposite because he thinks Liza isn’t going to get components... accusing someone of something, when it’s nothing more than a prediction, makes no sense.
She’s low in his list, she’s high in someone else’s, I actually don’t see any point in arguing, especially if it’s “you shouldn’t think the way you think, you should only agree with me” mentality.
Trashergurl stated that he’s stating his opinion based on bias and favoritism (although samkrut provided explanations multiple times for everything he posts) which is an accusation, rather than a productive criticism.
But go on, I guess.

 

[Seruleane]

well, of course everyone has fan favorites and will be favorably ranking them. It’s normal human bias. Why don’t you create your own list? I would love to see your more realistic ranking of Alina, since you are obviously not a fan.

 

[[email protected]]

Jumping off, and not directed at your post, I would not give much credence to JO scores. It borders on a cheesefest, like WTT. And I like WTT and I like when my fav skaters get PBs at WTT, but it’s not equivalent to a GP score, IMO.

I said many times but I am not tired to repeat. JO may be a "cheesefest like WTT" but they are not freak shows. WTT, I think, is even an official ISU competition and JO offers hefty (for figure skating) money and it is considered to be prestigious to be invited there. This means that skaters are not just fooling around there. They represent either their countries or continents. And while the absolute scores may seem irrelevant to some, the relative scores to my strong opinion are quite relevant and reflect how judges/TP assess specific performances of specific skaters.

At WTT last season we had:

Liza 234
Bradie -8
Kaori -10
Rika -12

At JO this season we had:

Sasha 160
Alina -6
Rika -16
Satoko -26
Bradie -36

It is no brainer to understand that for at least some of the fans the scores that Liza and Alina receive during the GP not absolute scores but relative scores vs. first of all Bradie and Satoko (Bell, last season was far away) are surprising to put it mildly.

 

[el henry]

It’s samkrut’s opinion, what’s there to argue about? He explained multiple times why he has certain skaters in certain positions, I’m just not sure why bicker about something that’s just a subjective list.
To me it’s as smart as arguing with predictions people make in the predictions threads.
“- I feel like this skater is going to win
- why do you think that?! That’s unfair and biased, you shouldn’t think that!”
Seems pointless to me. It’s essentially exactly the same thing, it’s a prediction thread not for a specific event, but a season prediction.
Someone puts Satoko ahead of Tuktamysheva, because he thinks Satoko will get carrots, someone does the opposite because he thinks Liza isn’t going to get components... accusing someone of something, when it’s nothing more than a prediction, makes no sense.
She’s low in his list, she’s high in someone else’s, I actually don’t see any point in arguing, especially if it’s “you shouldn’t think the way you think, you should only agree with me” mentality.
Trashergurl stated that he’s stating his opinion based on bias and favoritism (although samkrut provided explanations multiple times for everything he posts) which is an accusation, rather than a productive criticism.
But go on, I guess.

:yes:

I actually very much agree that predictions are predictions and do not reflect bias, they are just opinions.

I have seen for example, Twitter users argue that Jackie Wong is biased because he predicted a certain result before a GP. Completely incomprehensible to me:scratch:

I just thought that someone could argue with one result without having to redo the entire prediction. That was my only point.

 

[nussnacker]

:yes:

I actually very much agree that predictions are predictions and do not reflect bias, they are just opinions.

I have seen for example, Twitter users argue that Jackie Wong is biased because he predicted a certain result before a GP. Completely incomprehensible to me:scratch:

I just thought that someone could argue with one result without having to redo the entire prediction. That was my only point.

Yeah, but that’s not what happened though then someone should probably say: my prediction is the same as yours, except I’d have this skater (Medvedeva is this case) higher.
What happened was “you put Medvedeva lower because you’re biased”.
Isn’t the same thing, is it?