- Joined
- Feb 17, 2010
Sasha said warming up 3 quads was too much last season, but I’m wondering if now that her quad toe has become much more consistent she will be able to do this in the future.
Sasha said warming up 3 quads was too much last season, but I’m wondering if now that her quad toe has become much more consistent she will be able to do this in the future.
I don't think it's PR when you say that you won't add quads to your layout or when someone ask you if you are training quads and that you say that it's pointless to talk about a jump if you have not landed it yet.
There are more obvious cases of PR imo.
Anyway, i only have a top 2:
1) Trusova. 170+ potential in the free
2) Kihira. Can score close to Trusova if clean but can't win. Japan always lose at the political game.
Zagitova, Kostornaya, Scherbakova, Tuktamysheva can all fight for the third place.
Zagitova can and will have big GOEs and strong PCS.
Kostornaya with her less risky program can score high. I won't be surprised to see her get 35+ and 70+ PCS at Nebelhorn.
Scherbakova needs to improve her pcs but her 4lz is a strong weapon.
Tukt needs can score big thanks to three 3A.
There’s nothing political about Rika (or anyone) being unable to match Trusova’s base value. Trusova put in the effort to learn the quads, which the Japanese and other ladies are more than welcome to try to do themselves. So let’s not dismiss her earned advantage and likelihood of winning as merely Russia playing a better political game. At the end of the day, federations don’t land the jumps or execute the programs for these skater - the skaters do that themselves.
As much as I want Rika to be number 1, realistically Sasha's components aren't being scored particularly lowly, even though her program design is fairly lacklustre (you've seen one or two programs, you've seen them all) and her skating isn't all that interesting. The main points of contention between the two are (plus means base value advantage to Rika etc)
SP:
3A vs 2A (+4.70)
3T vs 3Lo(x) (-1.19)
FS:
2x3A vs 2x4T (-3)
4S vs 4Lz (-2.2)
2T vs 2A (-2)
3Lo(x) vs 3F(x) (-0.44)
This sums to an overall -4.13, which means if both skaters get an average of +3 GOE on their elements, Rika is at a TES deficit of about 5.3 points. In principle, she should be able to make up 5 points difference in PCS, but Sasha's PCS would have to stagnate, while Rika's would need to improve. In fact, Rika scored 33.64 + 68.96 = 102.60 PCS in total, whereas Sasha scored 32.20 + 65.44 = 97.64, which gives a difference of amazingly 4.96 points. Therefore, had Rika and Sasha skated clean programs with planned content with average of +3 GOE for each element, with the PCS given to them at the first competition, the final result becomes far too close to call.
I have made several assumptions here, including Rika landing a 4S with +3 GOE and actually landing all three 3As. In return, I have assumed Sasha does not mess up either 3Lz-3Lo and lands all three quads. What's a stronger assumption? I guess we'll find out.
Also, it must be said that unless Sasha adds a 3A to her program, Rika will benefit more from both of them adding new quads to their free programs. If Rika adds a 4T and Sasha adds a 4F, Rika can swap the 4T for a 2T in the 3A-2T, make it a 3A-3T, and then change her 3Lz-3T to a 3Lz/3F-3Lo (she's landed both in practice before: https://jumpitwithashuulanditwithap...ka-kihira-x-3-3-combo-3a3t-3lz3t-3lz3lo-3f3lo), in effect swapping a 2T for a 4T, whereas Sasha has to swap out a triple for a 4F, like, (ironically) a 3F. Rika gains 9.5 - 1.3 = 8.2 BV but Sasha gains 10.5 - 5.3 = 5.2 BV, and thus Rika with 3 3As + 2 quads would actually tie with Sasha with 4 quads. Hence the importance of a 3A to Sasha, to swap out the 2As in both the short and the free.
That said, Sasha has said that warming up three quads is almost impossible under competition conditions. I wonder if that includes a 3A too; would warming up two quads and a 3A also be too much?
I hope that her injury will be fully healed before SA. She started slowly last season so i don't expext to see her throw big guns or be consistent. But if she can be near clean with 3-3s it's enough for top 5 in GPs imo.Good news from Lilbet.
https://www.sports.kz/news/otets-tu...avme-planah-na-olimpiadu-i-trenere-tutberidze
She is already actively training and preparing for competitions, and they are optimistic about her full recovery. So far, all this is vague and so far it is like a dark horse. But given its potential and the success of last season, she can go in to the top of any list here. We'll see.
Japan Open showed that as of now Alina and Alexandra are in the league of their own well ahead of competition. Sasha made a feat of 4 landed quads. Yet, her FS score was only 6 points higher than that of Alina. I think that the difference in their SP will be about the same in Alina's favor. It means that so far they are about the same score wise. However, Sasha's potential upside is higher. She can introduce a triple axel, she can improve the landings, she may improve her pcs. Hence, 75+170=245 is feasible even without a 3A. Alina's ceiling is 240 (83+157). On the other hand, Sasha's layout is much much riskier.
I believe Sasha was purposefully lowballed on her jumps GOEs. If you compare her protocol with other skaters and then compare quality of their jumps - it will become obvious. Any man with the same quads would get at least +2. They were huge, effortless, with good body position etc. - there were enough plus criterias to offset slightly not ideal landings. Yet they still gave her only +0 for clean quads. Question is - will she be judged in the same "Jin Boyang treatment" way in other comps as it was here? If she won't - I think it will be hard for Alina to win because even medium GOEs on quads gives lots of points.
This week update
#1-2 Alina Zagitova[/B] (235 - 240)
#1-2 Alexandra Trusova (230 - 245)
Japan Open showed that as of now Alina and Alexandra are in the league of their own well ahead of competition. Sasha made a feat of 4 landed quads. Yet, her FS score was only 6 points higher than that of Alina. I think that the difference in their SP will be about the same in Alina's favor. It means that so far they are about the same score wise. However, Sasha's potential upside is higher. She can introduce a triple axel, she can improve the landings, she may improve her pcs. Hence, 75+170=245 is feasible even without a 3A. Alina's ceiling is 240 (83+157). On the other hand, Sasha's layout is much much riskier.
#3 Rika Kihira (225 - 235)
Rika's triple axel looks quite strong now. However, without a quad she is not competitive with Trusova. For me the pcs gap between her and Alina is clear if she keeps skating like she did at JO and in the States. People say that she is still recovering from an injury. Then the upside is also there.
#4 Anna Scherbakova (220 - 230)
#5 Elizaveta Tuktamysheva (215 - 235)
#6 Evgeniya Medvedeva (215 - 225)
Evgeniya was reported sick. However, she delivered the short program at Shanghai Trophy quite well. What happened during the free program raises a lot of questions. But I won't go to conclusions yet. Let's wait for GP series.
#7 Alena Kostornaya (215 - 220)
#8-10 Bradie Tennell (205 - 215) -1
I like how she skated at JO. However, her score of 124 means that she will not have easy time competing with Kaori and Satoko.
#8-10 Kaori Sakomoto (205 - 215) +0.5
#8-10 Satoko Miyahara (205 - 215) +0.5
Satoko is still around.
I believe Sasha was purposefully lowballed on her jumps GOEs. If you compare her protocol with other skaters and then compare quality of their jumps - it will become obvious. Any man with the same quads would get at least +2. They were huge, effortless, with good body position etc. - there were enough plus criterias to offset slightly not ideal landings. Yet they still gave her only +0 for clean quads. Question is - will she be judged in the same "Jin Boyang treatment" way in other comps as it was here? If she won't - I think it will be hard for Alina to win because even medium GOEs on quads gives lots of points.
I'd argue that both Rika and Sasha were underscored relative to Alina, for sure. All three deserved a similar amount of GOE on their clean jumps; obviously Rika's 3Lo and one of her 3As weren't perfect, while Sasha deservedly lost points on her improvised 4T-Eu-3S (but perhaps she should have lost more on the 4T-3T? Landing on 4T quite suspect), but everything else...hmm...
Concerning Alena I would wait until tomorrow. Alina on the other hand is still #1 in my rankings. Her last season score of 237.5 is a benchmark. Before any of 3A surpasses it I would not place her behind them. And whether any of them but Trusova can actually receive such a score is an open question.
Well, personally I think judges will award Aliona the highest PCS of the 3A (comparable to Alina). In this case, she barely needs the 3A. Also, as a junior, she was competing against Trusova's and Scherbakova's quads and still had some wins over them. However, showing the 3A in practice was a very smart strategy IMO, as it lets the judges (and competitors) know she is practicing and landing the harder jumps. It is similar to what Alina and Evgenia used to do with their 3lutz+loop+loop+loop and 3S+3T+3T+3T and so on. Remember that judges watch the practice sessions too, and I would bet that it has an effect on competition scores. But yes, let's see about tomorrow. I don't think my predictions will change.