The Japanese (Miura/Kihara are an exciting team and very popular for many reasons. Their scores skyrocketed after being in 10th behind both U.S. teams and KM-T/MM, et al. at 2021 Worlds. Yes, M/K are a good, feel-good team, but to say that they are more interesting on their elements than J/R or K/F, is very subjective. M/K have some fun qualities, and they perform the elements well. They aren't perfect all the time.I think they will be behind the Russians and S/H but can beat P/J. The one keeping them out of the top 5 is the Japanese pair who tbh should place higher if both pairs are clean because their elements are way more interesting and cleaner but J/R if they get it together can be really spectacular and I could picture them playing a bit of a spoiler. Certainly they would give Canada an outside shot of a team medal.
At Skate America, where it looks like there was a huge political push for M/K to make the podium over very competitive American pairs, mind you, the judges completely ignored a problem on M/K's catch in the sp. It wasn't a clean catch. Yet, nothing was taken off and they received high GOE. Had the same happened to an American team, you can bet points would have been deducted. In the fp, M/K had a bad fall, but still prevailed for the podium. Meanwhile, there was no political push behind the top American team, K/F, who placed fourth. The ISU had even sent a Japanese rep to award medals at Skate America, most likely because of the political push behind M/K making the podium.
M/K have brought back both of their programs from last season, which helps their consistency. If they were a different team, or especially an American team, there'd be criticism for them not getting at least one new program for the new season.
I agree with you that if J/R continue strongly in the second half of the season, they can be a wild card. Still, the Russian teams, even with mistakes are given advantages in the scoring.