Wagner "furious" on scores

[skylark]

I thought that 4CC would be the best place for her to bring forth the sass and give the swan song performance of her life and tell USFS that they made a bad decision. Pity she withdrew

I agree with this. But Ashley is not as tough as people think she is. She can convert her pain into motivation to rise and compete great another day ... but such a conversion takes time.

To give a comparison: Mirai has competed 4CC four times. It's usually a great event for her. She's been 2nd once and 3rd twice. But in 2014, she was 10th there. Pain and disappointment take some time to recover from. IMHO. ETA: To clarify, I'm saying this as a possible comparison and a feeling that I have. I didn't mean to suggest that I could know Mirai's mind.

Anyone who thinks it's "justice" or "karma" for Ashley to be in the same position Mirai was in in 2014 is simply not understanding that it wasn't Ashley's "fault" in 2014. Neither is it Mirai's "fault" in 2018.

 

[ice coverage]

... Mirai has competed 4CC four times. It's usually a great event for her. She's been 2nd once and 3rd twice. But in 2014, she was 10th there.

Mirai had the flu at 2014 Four Continents.

ETA:

Correcting my inaccuracy re her illness, although the point remains the same:

She caught the flu after Nationals, recovered, and then caught Norovirus in Taipei.

Sorry for misremembering the exact nature of her ailment.​

 

[skylark]

Mirai had the flu at 2014 Four Continents.

I didn't know that, and it's worth noting. It doesn't change my feeling that discouragement played a part.

 

[ice coverage]

I didn't know that, and it's worth noting. It doesn't change my feeling that discouragement may have played a part.

I support Ashley in doing whatever she thinks is best for her.

I think it's impossible to know re Mirai and 2014 Four Continents. Different people handle life experiences in different ways.

For example, Weaver/Poje were hoping to make the Canadian team for the 2010 Olympics. Weaver had gotten a special grant of Canadian citizenship in 2009.
Canada had two spots for ice dance. W/P placed third at 2010 Canadian Nats -- 0.30 behind second place -- and just barely missed making the team.
W/P went to 2010 Four Continents and won the gold.

ETA:

I do realize that W/P in 2010 were at a different point in their career than Ashley now is in hers. But I hope you get the idea.​

 

[Lipea]

I don't understand people talking about how someone should be given a spot on the Olympic team for their past achievements (especially when said achievements aren't exactly amazing), that's how Russia ended up having no competitor in the men's competition at the Olympics in their own country.

At the end of the day if every single 1 of the top 4 finishers from US nationals skated their absolute best performance the only 1 that might podium is Mirai and that's because of the triple axel, otherwise it's a top 10 finishes.

My point is not that Ashley should be sent to OG because of her previous achievements. My point is that she absolutely deserved higher total score than Karen, and had to be sent to OG for that. This is simply unarguable, and I will show you why:
Look, here is the results of 2017 SC, where Ashley and Karen competed face to face http://www.isuresults.com/results/season1718/gpcan2017/gpcan2017_Ladies_SP_Scores.pdf
Now look at PCS marks.
For SP Karen got 30.43 Ashley got 33.47
For FS Karen got 61.99 Ashley got 67.50
In total, Ashley got 8.54pts more in PCS than Karen.

However, suddenly, Ashley with the better performances at Nationals, lost 2.5pts to Karen in PCS who was technically weaker.
Thus, internationally, and, therefore, at the hypothetical Olympics, with these performances Ashley would be 10pts ahead of Karen, not 1.4pts behind. Certainly, 10pts win versus 1.4 points loss due to judges manipulations, and therefore, lost Olympics, is the big reason to be furious. And yes, aside from being unfair towards the skater, it makes absolutely no sense for the country's sport, why the heck they did it.

Reputation and consistency based on previous achivements is not an empty thing in any sport, and rightfully so. International judging, at least in PCS is also based very much on previous achivements and reputation. Out of this group of girls only two who, if skated clean, had some real chances to get bronze at OG is Bradie and Ashley. The first one due to her technical content and consistency, the second one due to her reputation and components.
I must assure you, and you can take a screen of my post, that even if Mirai lands two rotated triple axels she won't beat even a 5-triple, no lutz, Caro. Because her PCS are incomparable with top ladies, even if she gets boost due to the technical advancement. In addition, her technical advancement is also quite fragile - it very much depends on how strict the technical controller will be, because Mirai is known to have URs. Here it is where reputation matters. I am saying it with all my respect to her amazing will and hardest work, and totally agreeing that she absolutely deserved being in this OG team.

Regarding Russia's men case in Sochi - time showed that despite Plushenko withdrawal, thanks God, they sent him, and not Kovtun. I doubt there will be many Russians who would disagree now. At least they got a great representative at the team event. Despite all the home support in the following seasons Kovtun "the king of practice" showed that he simply cannot deliver and has poor level of responsibility. Even now, having such an easy chance going to OG he did not even try.

 

[Lipea]

Also, look at the Canadian nationals.

Kaetlyn Osmond skated much weaker than Ashley, however, she got much higher scores, and there is no even an argument that she will represent the country at the OG.
Because she was second at Worlds last year, behind Medvedeva. OG is like Worlds in its pool of competitors, so it indicates, she could do the same at OG.

Well, US, has the same case with Wagner.
She was second at Worlds, behind Medvedeva, and ahead of Satoko and two Russian girls, all of whom skated clean.
The total scores of Osmond and Wagner are nearly the same.

You will tell, this was a year earlier! However, this difference easily makes up for the fact that in Boston the competition was much higher with at least 5-6 skaters in the top ten performing two clean programs versus Helsinki, where even a silver-medalist Osmond didn't have seven triples in fs.

So, how stupid is it for USFS to not send to OG Wagner who is very capable in beating any pretendent for bronze, and instead to send a skater who never even reached 200pts mark?

 

[Mathman]

So, how stupid is it for USFS to not send to OG Wagner who is very capable in beating any pretendent for bronze, and instead to send a skater who never even reached 200pts mark?

I was about to disagree but you got me with pretendent.

 

[eriecold]

I didn't know that, and it's worth noting. It doesn't change my feeling that discouragement played a part.

Disappointment and depression also take a toll on the immune system.

 

[lappo]

My point is not that Ashley should be sent to OG because of her previous achievements. My point is that she absolutely deserved higher total score than Karen, and had to be sent to OG for that. This is simply unarguable, and I will show you why:
Look, here is the results of 2017 SC, where Ashley and Karen competed face to face http://www.isuresults.com/results/season1718/gpcan2017/gpcan2017_Ladies_SP_Scores.pdf
Now look at PCS marks.
For SP Karen got 30.43 Ashley got 33.47
For FS Karen got 61.99 Ashley got 67.50
In total, Ashley got 8.54pts more in PCS than Karen.

However, suddenly, Ashley with the better performances at Nationals, lost 2.5pts to Karen in PCS who was technically weaker.
Thus, internationally, and, therefore, at the hypothetical Olympics, with these performances Ashley would be 10pts ahead of Karen, not 1.4pts behind. Certainly, 10pts win versus 1.4 points loss due to judges manipulations, and therefore, lost Olympics, is the big reason to be furious. And yes, aside from being unfair towards the skater, it makes absolutely no sense for the country's sport, why the heck they did it.

Reputation and consistency based on previous achivements is not an empty thing in any sport, and rightfully so. International judging, at least in PCS is also based very much on previous achivements and reputation. Out of this group of girls only two who, if skated clean, had some real chances to get bronze at OG is Bradie and Ashley. The first one due to her technical content and consistency, the second one due to her reputation and components.
I must assure you, and you can take a screen of my post, that even if Mirai lands two rotated triple axels she won't beat even a 5-triple, no lutz, Caro. Because her PCS are incomparable with top ladies, even if she gets boost due to the technical advancement. In addition, her technical advancement is also quite fragile - it very much depends on how strict the technical controller will be, because Mirai is known to have URs. Here it is where reputation matters. I am saying it with all my respect to her amazing will and hardest work, and totally agreeing that she absolutely deserved being in this OG team.

Regarding Russia's men case in Sochi - time showed that despite Plushenko withdrawal, thanks God, they sent him, and not Kovtun. I doubt there will be many Russians who would disagree now. At least they got a great representative at the team event. Despite all the home support in the following seasons Kovtun "the king of practice" showed that he simply cannot deliver and has poor level of responsibility. Even now, having such an easy chance going to OG he did not even try.

IMO, and totally OT, that's what harms FS legitimacy the most in the eyes of FS fans and casual watchers alike and that should be fought like pest. In an ideal (and unlikely to happen) FS world, skaters should be judged for what they are putting out that evening and not for past achievements and reputation; reputation should not be the sixth PCS mark as it is now.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Kaetlyn Osmond skated much weaker than Ashley, however, she got much higher scores, and there is no even an argument that she will represent the country at the OG.
Because she was second at Worlds last year, behind Medvedeva. OG is like Worlds in its pool of competitors, so it indicates, she could do the same at OG.

Well, US, has the same case with Wagner.
She was second at Worlds, behind Medvedeva, and ahead of Satoko and two Russian girls, all of whom skated clean.
The total scores of Osmond and Wagner are nearly the same.

You will tell, this was a year earlier! However, this difference easily makes up for the fact that in Boston the competition was much higher with at least 5-6 skaters in the top ten performing two clean programs versus Helsinki, where even a silver-medalist Osmond didn't have seven triples in fs.

So, how stupid is it for USFS to not send to OG Wagner who is very capable in beating any pretendent for bronze, and instead to send a skater who never even reached 200pts mark?

Two skaters actually, if we're talking ISU personal bests. Mirai's PB is 194.95 and Karen's is 199.29.

I disagree though that Ashley is very capable of getting Olympic bronze, in her current state... there are too many skaters who have her beat technically. She is not in the same condition she was when she won silver at Worlds.

 

[chuckm]

Here is Wagner's FS from 2017 Worlds: 2a, 3f+1t, 2a+2t, 3lo+1lo+3s<, 3f<, 3lo, 3ze. Only 3 clean triples.
It's clear her skating has deteriorated greatly since 2016 in Boston.

 

[R.D.]

I think realistically Wagner would have been shooting for 7th-9th. So will Chen, most likely, but she can also place out of top 10 if she bombs (or do better if she has the skate of her life).

Like I said before, the two are virtually interchangeable at this point, as far as scoring goes. The skater with seemingly higher potential (but also greater risk) is the one being sent.

 

[ancientpeas]

In my mind Ashley was a solid top 10 for the Olympics. I don't know about Karen or Bradie to be honest. But in the end I think the optics of putting Ashley on the team again when she was 4th at nationals would not have looked good. And I'm sorry but people would have given the USFSA the side eye for putting Ashley head of yet another girl (and never mind the potential racial implications). It all matters.

 

[NanaPat]

Also, look at the Canadian nationals.

Kaetlyn Osmond skated much weaker than Ashley, however, she got much higher scores, and there is no even an argument that she will represent the country at the OG.
Because she was second at Worlds last year, behind Medvedeva. OG is like Worlds in its pool of competitors, so it indicates, she could do the same at OG.

Well, US, has the same case with Wagner.
She was second at Worlds, behind Medvedeva, and ahead of Satoko and two Russian girls, all of whom skated clean.
The total scores of Osmond and Wagner are nearly the same.

You will tell, this was a year earlier! However, this difference easily makes up for the fact that in Boston the competition was much higher with at least 5-6 skaters in the top ten performing two clean programs versus Helsinki, where even a silver-medalist Osmond didn't have seven triples in fs.

So, how stupid is it for USFS to not send to OG Wagner who is very capable in beating any pretendent for bronze, and instead to send a skater who never even reached 200pts mark?

So, you're saying that Wagner beat Osmond at every outing since Boston? I don't think so. Or are you saying nothing since Boston matters? Or are you just dragging Kaetlyn in to boost your argument re Ashley. Hint: it doesn't.

 

[Lipea]

So, you're saying that Wagner beat Osmond at every outing since Boston? I don't think so. Or are you saying nothing since Boston matters? Or are you just dragging Kaetlyn in to boost your argument re Ashley. Hint: it doesn't.

I said that Ashley for USA is what Kaetlyn is for Canada.
However, the way they are treated by their federations is completely different.

 

[Lipea]

Here is Wagner's FS from 2017 Worlds: 2a, 3f+1t, 2a+2t, 3lo+1lo+3s<, 3f<, 3lo, 3ze. Only 3 clean triples.
It's clear her skating has deteriorated greatly since 2016 in Boston.

There is no such thing as deteriorated skating. There is lack of training caused by injuries or lack of motivation. Ashley's last season was not that great, although still not bad, because she obviously knew that there were no way she could get higher than Worlds silver, and just saved her energy for the next season. Working the hardest way like Medvedeva or Hanyu each season wears out a skater and dangerous for injuries. That's why for Russian ladies it is so much more difficult to stay in the team because they have no right to mess up a single competition so have to train their hardest consistently.
Perhaps knowing there are 3 spots Ashley got a bit too relaxed and underestimated the capabilities of her home competitors. There is no question though she would train the heck out of herself for OG, since it would be her, presumably last OG, and the only competition she never medaled at.

 

[Mathman]

There is no such thing as deteriorated skating.

You must be a young person.

When I turned 50 I went to my ophthalmologist: "Doc, I don't know what's wrong, but I just can't see as well as I could when I was 25." The doctor told me, "And i bet you can't run as fast, either."

 

[R.D.]

Perhaps knowing there are 3 spots Ashley got a bit too relaxed and underestimated the capabilities of her home competitors. There is no question though she would train the heck out of herself for OG, since it would be her, presumably last OG, and the only competition she never medaled at.

Again, this puzzles me since this girl said she wanted an OLYMPIC medal...that is, unless she saw the writing on the wall during training and after her injury.

I expected to see a bit more fight out of her at Nationals, especially during the freeskate...can't leave points on the table and she did...but, it is what it is. She'll move on, eventually...and hopefully this forum will, too.

 

[Lipea]

IMO, and totally OT, that's what harms FS legitimacy the most in the eyes of FS fans and casual watchers alike and that should be fought like pest. In an ideal (and unlikely to happen) FS world, skaters should be judged for what they are putting out that evening and not for past achievements and reputation; reputation should not be the sixth PCS mark as it is now.

Figure skating is for long-term fans. The consistency should be rewarded because it is much harder as it requires more will and work to be among the top skaters for several seasons than just deliver once.
One cannot compare Kwan and Hughes, or Slutskaya and Sotnikova. The former ones, although never became OG champions, were historic skaters being top contenders for cycles. The latter - one time champions. It would be similar if, for ex. this OG Zagitova won. I wish she does not, simply because I don't think she deserved the score boost she gets season, which would allow her to win.

 

[Lipea]

You must be a young person.

When I turned 50 I went to my ophthalmologist: "Doc, I don't know what's wrong, but I just can't see as well as I could when I was 25. The doctor told me, "And i bet you can't run as fast, either."

Haha, if you hint that Ashley simply is not fit physically, I don't think it is the case. Even at this nationals she had less UR-s than I ever seen from her. She delibirately tried to eliminate them, because one can see how much weight she lost. If she would fix her StSequence and the last spin, and get slightly more in shape to make clean programs I don't see how it would be not at the level of her Boston performances.