2018 US Nats good juveniles, intermediates

[concorde]

Juvenile to watch. Clara Kim. She got 4th (i think) in the solo ice dance earlier this fall. Until May she had Tom Z as her jump coach and then her family moved back to the DC area. So the girl has great SS and jumps.

Clara got 2nd in Juv.

 

[concorde]

Oh yeah. Hannah Byers is relative newcomer and should not be underestimated. She squeaked into the top 4 at South Atlantic's and then made it through Easterns. Pretty skater that has the full package.

Hannah got 6th.

 

[Scout]

At the juvenile level, I was surprised to see that the girls are scoring higher than then boys. Granted, they actually have the same number of elements, and are limited to double axel, which puts them on a more even playing field. Still, it was the first time I ever noticed that.

 

[Princessroja]

At the juvenile level, I was surprised to see that the girls are scoring higher than then boys. Granted, they actually have the same number of elements, and are limited to double axel, which puts them on a more even playing field. Still, it was the first time I ever noticed that.

I was surprised at that too. The girls were far, far more consistent too.

 

[Layback11]

A friend of mine who I’ve trained with since I started skating is competing with her partner in juvenile pairs. Not sure how they stack up to other teams, but I’m very proud of them for coming this far no matter how they end up placing.

 

[concorde]

I was surprised at that too. The girls were far, far more consistent too.

At the juvenile level, I was surprised to see that the girls are scoring higher than then boys. Granted, they actually have the same number of elements, and are limited to double axel, which puts them on a more even playing field. Still, it was the first time I ever noticed that.

I think if you look at the top 4 girls and 4 boys for the past several years, the girls tend to outscore the boys but the top boy does tend to outscore the top girl.

That same trend usually applies for intermediates as well.

 

[Layback11]

Kim/Musladin (juvenile pair) aren’t technically one of the stronger teams, but they’re very fast and polished, and I enjoyed watching them.

 

[Scout]

I think if you look at the top 4 girls and 4 boys for the past several years, the girls tend to outscore the boys but the top boy does tend to outscore the top girl.

But in this case the top 5 girls outscored the top boy. The 8th place girl would have finished 2nd in the boys group.

 

[concorde]

But in this case the top 5 girls outscored the top boy. The 8th place girl would have finished 2nd in the boys group.

The only part I find surprising is that the top boy was not stronger. Having all stronge skating consistent girls is the norm for Juvs at Nationals. Remember you are basically seeing the top 1% (or so) of the Juv girls across the country (or at least that is how it works for East Coast girls). East Coast girls placed 1, 2, and 6 (sorry, but I don't know the 4th East Coast girl).

 

[gkelly]

At the juvenile level, I was surprised to see that the girls are scoring higher than then boys. Granted, they actually have the same number of elements, and are limited to double axel, which puts them on a more even playing field. Still, it was the first time I ever noticed that.

If there are (very roughly) a thousand juvenile girls and a hundred juvenile boys in the US, it takes a lot more to get to Nationals as girl than as a boy.

 

[Layback11]

Kate Wang (intermediate lady) is adorable, and if she can skate a clean FS I can definitely see her making a run for the podium. (She has 3S and 3Lz.)

 

[Scout]

If there are (very roughly) a thousand juvenile girls and a hundred juvenile boys in the US, it takes a lot more to get to Nationals as girl than as a boy.

I'd assumed that would be true for the intermediate level as well. But I would still be surprised if the top 5 intermediate ladies all outscore the top intermediate man, and the top three ladies outscore the top man by a substantial margin (assuming ladies and men get the same number of jumping passes). Maybe I just don't pay enough attention to the lower levels. I'm so used to seeing higher scores for sr men due to the extra jumping pass and wealth of quads and triple axels.

In all sports, men dominate women (for good reason), so seeing the extent that juvenile ladies delivered compared to the men caught me by surprised. That's all. Didn't mean to make a big deal of this or imply or suggest anything.

 

[concorde]

I just checked last year's scores.

In Juvs, the top 4 girls and the #1 boy all got 58. The #2 boy would have gotten 7th in the girls.
In Intermediates, #1 lady outscored the #1 man by one point (126 vs. 125). The #2 man and the #5 lady both scored 111.

Novice is when you start to see the flip flop in scores.

 

[gkelly]

I'd assumed that would be true for the intermediate level as well. But I would still be surprised if the top 5 intermediate ladies all outscore the top intermediate man, and the top three ladies outscore the top man by a substantial margin (assuming ladies and men get the same number of jumping passes).

At intermediate level the number of jumping passes is the same for ladies and men. Men get an extra 30 seconds and an extra jump pass in the freeskate starting at novice level. (Although that may change after the next ISU Congress.)

Also, program component factors in the US are the same for both sexes at juvenile and intermediate levels but higher for men starting at novice.


Are we talking about just the top skaters at Nationals, or the national field as a whole, which is approximately the top 12 skaters in the country?

Triples are allowed at intermediate level, and because of physical differences between the sexes it will be more common for boys than girls to have more triples in their repertoire for a given level of overall skill. But on average girls tend to have stronger presentation skills in that age range, especially in the very competitive field of those vying for Nationals spots.

But in any given year there may be one or more exceptional skaters who are far ahead of even the other Nationals-worthy skaters in their event. Those will usually be on the podium, unless they bomb. Some years there may be more exceptional boys and other years more girls, or the gap between the best and the best of the rest may be larger in one discipline than the other.

But for the average standard of the 12 skaters at Nationals, the girls will usually be stronger. The girl who qualified with the 12th highest girl's score is probably 98th percentile in the whole country. The boy who qualified with the 12th highest score would not be 90th percentile.

In all sports, men dominate women (for good reason), so seeing the extent that juvenile ladies delivered compared to the men caught me by surprised. That's all. Didn't mean to make a big deal of this or imply or suggest anything.

No problem.

 

[Scout]

I just checked last year's scores.

In Juvs, the top 4 girls and the #1 boy all got 58. The #2 boy would have gotten 7th in the girls.
In Intermediates, #1 lady outscored the #1 man by one point (126 vs. 125). The #2 man and the #5 lady both scored 111.

Novice is when you start to see the flip flop in scores.

So basically when men get an extra jumping pass and maybe different factor for PCS. Otherwise, I guess it is more common than I originally thought.

Edit: typed this before I say gkelly's reply. thanks for the detailed explanation!

 

[dorispulaski]

Start Orders for December 30, 2017 events:
All times Pacific(local time) UTC -8

2:45 PM	Intermediate Pairs / Free Skate	Start order
4:45 PM	Intermediate Ladies / Free Skate	Start order
6:30 PM	Intermediate Men / Free Skate	Start order

 

[notonmylife15]

All the comments noted about age, etc...

Some of these girls need to be turned into pairs skaters if the U.S. is going to have a variable pairs program. Just looking at the top three girls, and then watching the juvenile and intermediate pairs, I'm thinking the U.S. could really get somewhere if it started actively recruiting and pushing pairs like it does dance.

In particular, Isabeau Devito had gorgeous edges and skating skills, but could get lost in the jumping race. Then again, she's probably all of eight or nine, so...

 

[concorde]

All the comments noted about age, etc...

Some of these girls need to be turned into pairs skaters if the U.S. is going to have a variable pairs program. Just looking at the top three girls, and then watching the juvenile and intermediate pairs, I'm thinking the U.S. could really get somewhere if it started actively recruiting and pushing pairs like it does dance.

In particular, Isabeau Devito had gorgeous edges and skating skills, but could get lost in the jumping race. Then again, she's probably all of eight or nine, so...

Sorry to sound snarky but who are you going to pair these girls with? The sport is really hurting for boys.

 

[concorde]

Oops. Duplicate post.

 

[notonmylife15]

Sorry to sound snarky but who are you going to pair these girls with? The sport is really hurting for boys.

I totally concede the point, so...start recruiting the boys as well? I just struggle with the fact that the U.S. has numerous boys and girls (and men and women) capable of performing dance incredibly well (to the point where I think the U.S. has the deepest field in the world) and producing men and women with every single triple (except the axel) and yet cannot pair pairs together that can consistently land side by side triple salchows.

I think part of the problem is starting skaters young enough as pairs versus singles skaters, hence my comment. I totally get there is a "shortage" of boys, but how much of that is because of lack of viable pairs skaters versus not steering the boys toward pairs? It's an honest question, not snark.