2018-2019 GP Assignments

[NanaPat]

I thought the world champions have first choice in where they want to go????...so, i'm assuming she would want to go to Skate Canada and something else that is not NHK or Rostelecom...they will probably put her in France again anyways...

NHK and Rostelcom don't want Kaitlyn for the same reason she doesn't want them: they have top skaters that don't want to meet her / she doesn't want to meet.

The seeding is supposed to prevent top skaters from meeting at GP events, but this year it's weird because Medvedeva and Zagitova would be top seeds based on the Olympics, but aren't because the seeds are based on Worlds. They're still top skaters, despite their seeding, and it isn't in anyone's interest to have top skaters meeting at GP events. Unfortunately one of the top seed is going to have to meet one or more of them at Rostelcom. And if they're at a lot of different events, at other events as well.

 

[cruzceleste]

Actually last season IdF wasn't that bad, in terms of organization and ice IIRC.

The plastic is ... well it started with GPF medals which were in essence, plastic coasters and then continued last season where we didn't even have medals but plastic (literally) stars with pink for girls and blue for boys .... and the same old rickety medal podium they've been toting around for years that is so going to collapse under the skaters at a very near future.

Wow, maybe French Federation doesn´t have any moeny?

But JSF does seen to value Yuzuru´s safety a lot (they rolled 8 bodyguards for him in Olympics), and won´t send him to Francia if they think it won´t compete in the best condition...

 

[Yatagarasu]

Wow, maybe French Federation doesn´t have any moeny?

Let me put it this way. They say they don't so for the GPF we had some of the girls two per one bed and no banquet. Poor organizers. No money. Except the officials had a five star hotel and a banquet. Meh.

The ice at least was better last season and as far as I know, the ticket issues got fixed too so honestly, I think it'll be just fine if chooses to go and he can add a plastic paper weight to his plastic coaster

The 'trouble' with Yuzuru going to IdF is Shoma though, or rather how to get it all settled.

If Zu is doing NHK + IdF then that puts Shoma in a bind, providing they don't want to have both of them at NHK because it leaves him with CoC and SC and they are back to back but too far apart, for his jet leg problems. If Yuzuru is at his standard SC and NHK then Shoma can do CoC and IdF and that's a non-issue.
Of course if Yuzuru doesn't get NHK at all, then he can do SC and IdF while Shoma gets CoC and NHK, which are again back to back but no time difference issue.

I don't think Yuzuru will get CoR this time around no matter how much he enjoys it as the Russians may want to protect Kolyada. And of course he's very unlikely to go to CoC.

 

[Lamente Ariane]

I'm a little confused with the world standing/season's best vs World placements-- does it seem likely that Medvedeva and Zagitova will meet at one of the GP events? At least one will certainly get Rostelecom Cup, most likely competing against Wakaba or Satoko there I'd think.

 

[kiches]

Wow, maybe French Federation doesn´t have any moeny?

But JSF does seen to value Yuzuru´s safety a lot (they rolled 8 bodyguards for him in Olympics), and won´t send him to Francia if they think it won´t compete in the best condition...

Just a point of clarification, it was the Japanese Olympic Committee that hired the security guards for Yuzuru when he landed in Incheon, and not the JSF. Judging by the size of the crowd that was at the airport when he arrived it was probably a good idea.

 

[chuckm]

Hanyu will be an INVITED skater this time out. If the Japanese fed opts for Shoma as a host pick and doesn't want a Shoma/Uzu faceoff, then he has no say as to where he will skate. Likely CoR is out, CoC probably too. That means invitations would likely come from SA (even though Chen will surely be there), SC or TDF. If he doesn't like his assignments, he can withdraw early on, citing further recuperation from his injury.

 

[Ziotic]

Based on the schedule of the events Kaetlyn will almost certainly be in France. USA is right before Canada and China right after. So unless she chooses USA and does back to back: but mostly avoiding travel time change issues, it will be France.

 

[pearly]

Each country gets only one spot for the host pick?

 

[pearly]

Also, I think world standings have been updated so if someone cares to update Andrea's list, please do.

 

[lavenderblossom]

And what do you think about Deniss Vasiljevs? Where could he possibly skate?

He's gotten Rostelecom and NHK for two years running so I wouldn't be surprised if he gets one or both of those again

Wait :shocked: Oh my gosh I just realised! He's a seeded skater! Wow... well, that could change things.

 

[chuckm]

Also, I think world standings have been updated so if someone cares to update Andrea's list, please do.

The World Standings have been updated with Worlds 2018 results, but unlike the SB list, the current World Standings isn't what will be looked at for the GP selection. Sometime in late April, the ISU updates the World Standings to remove the oldest data (2015/16) and decrease the value of 2016/2017 data to 70% of its value. That World Standing list is what is used for GP selection. I took an early stab at the scrub and have updated top 24+ lists for Men, Ladies and Dance in the #49 post in this thread.

 

[bluelutz]

As for Japanese ladies,

2 spots from Worlds

Higuchi
Miyahara

Not top 12 at Worlds but top 24 Season Best

Sakamoto
Mihara
Honda
Matsuda
Yamashita

So these seven ladies get 2 spots each, which means 7X2=14 spots
(Top 24 SB list guarantees only one spot, but skaters on that list got 2 spots in the past)

Also Rika Hongo's WS is still within Top 24, so one spot is guaranteed for her.

And now, there is a big speculation among Japanese fans
on what their federation would do with Rika Kihira.
She did not win at JGP final, and she did not medal at JW either.
Her SB is 27th, and her WS is 56th,
which means she did not earn any senior GPS spot on her own.
However, last year Yuna Shiraiwa did get two spots even though she did not have any of those qualifications.
The Japanese federation gave a host spot to her, and also an invitational spot from France to her,
even though Matsuda's SB was higher than Shiraiwa's (but both of theirs were lower than 24th)
that means they thought Shiraiwa got the more potential than Matsuda.

So it is very possible for Japan to get Rika Kihira two spots in the same way,
and it is not difficult to imagine that their federation likes her to compete for the next Worlds
which is going to be held in Japan
since she finished 3rd at the senior Nationals and also she is the 3A jumper.

14 spots are going to be used by other Japanese ladies,
and one (+ one possibly) can be for Rika Hongo,
and if Rika Kihira gets two spots, this means that 18 spots for Japanese ladies.
I assume that one country can send three skaters to each GPS competition
which means that 3x6+18 is the max.
However, it is not easy for me to believe that Japan can get three ladies to all,
though theoretically it is supposed to be possible, since I do not recall that it has ever happened before.
Russia or US have ever done that before, haven't they?

And if Rika Kihira gets 2 and Rika Hongo gets 2, there is nothing for Shiraiwa
because Japan can not get more than 18,
despite of the fact that Shiraiwa's SB (26th) is higher than Kihira's (27th).
And judging with their expectation on Kihira, they will not split two spots between them.

The competition among Japanese ladies is going to be even more fierce for the next season
as they will host the Worlds, and Rika and Mako will be age elgible.
It is going to be super exciting to see them to fight against Russians and others.

 

[vorravorra]

You can't use the current top 24 on the World Standing list, because GP selection will be based on the revised list after the old data from 2015/2016 has been scrubbed, and the 2016/2017 data has been reduced to 70% of its value.

I have done a rough recalc of Ladies, Men and Dance (No Pairs yet), so here is a projected top 24 after the scrub:

MEN

1 Nathan CHEN
2 Shoma UNO
3 Yuzuru HANYU
4 Mikhail KOLYADA
5 Javier FERNANDEZ retired (at least from GP)
6 Alexei BYCHENKO
7 Jason BROWN
8 Boyang JIN
9 Dmitri ALIEV
10 Adam RIPPON retired?
11 Max AARON
12 Deniss VASILJEVS
13 Patrick CHAN (retired)
14 Sergei VORONOV
15 Misha GE retired?
16 Alexander SAMARIN
17 Vincent ZHOU
18 Jorik HENDRICKX
19 Moris KVITELASHVILI
20 Keiji TANAKA
21 Kazuki TOMONO
22 Matteo RIZZO
23 Roman SAVOSIN
24 Keegan MESSING
25 Alexei KRASNOZHON
26 Alexander MAJOROV
27 Chafik BESSEGHIER
28 Han YAN Retired?
29 Nam NGUYEN
30 Daniel SAMOHIN

Bychenko is retiring.

 

[suey20]

So when will Grand Prix assignments be announced? Is it May or in June?

 

[Ziotic]

So when will Grand Prix assignments be announced? Is it May or in June?

I think it’s usually June, but last year they came in May!

 

[Miller]

Prediction for Ladies GPs taking account of above, and assuming Carolina Kostner and Ashley Wagner retire/don’t skate next year. Also Gracie Gold doesn’t return as comeback/return skater. Also that invites are in strict SB order once guaranteed spots and host picks are taken account of – in practice this is very close, 1 or 2 skaters miss out, 1 or 2 gain, but it’s very close. Also that any age eligible juniors turn senior – it’ll be the start of a new quad, so introducing won’t do any harm if it’s a bit early, plus with the strength of Russian juniors it may be best to strike while the iron is hot and not lose any momentum in your career.

Guaranteed 2 spots – Osmond, Higuchi, Miyahara, Zagitova, Tennell, Daleman, Sotskova, Hendrickx, Nagasu, Tursynbaeva, Bell

Guaranteed 1 spot via top 24 SB, but in practice 2 due to number of spots to fill – Medvedeva, Sakamoto, Mihara, Tsurskaya, Radionova, Konstantinova, Choi, Honda, Tuktamysheva, Panenkova, Matsuda, Yamashita

Guaranteed 1 spot via top 24 WS – Chen, Hongo, Rajicova, Schott, Lecavalier

Host Picks – USA 1 (Starr Andrews? Ting Cui?), Canada 2 (Alaine Chartrand/Larkyn Austman?), Russia 1 (Pogorilaya/Gubanova?), Japan 1 (Kihira?), France 2 (3?) (Lecavalier + Meite. Julie Froetscher/Lea Serna if 3?), China 2 (Xiangning Li + Ziquan Zhao)

Running total 60 spots.

Invites (in SB order) – Russian number 18 spot (Samodurova, but Pogorilaya?), Japan number 17 and 18 spots (Hongo/Kihira/Shiraiwa fighting it out), Eun-Soo Lim, Karen Chen (2nd spot), Angela Wang, Courtney Hicks, Ting Cui, Han-Ul Kim, Nicole Rajicova, Xiangning Li, Nicole Schott - last ones may miss out if Kostner/Wagner don’t retire for example (Carolina would get 2 spots, but Ashley only 1, would need the Host Pick to get a 2nd).

Next in line if further retirements/years off, skaters not being put forward etc.

Starr Andrews, Emmy Ma, Alaine Chartrand, Mae Berenice Meite, So Hyan An, Kailani Craine, Ye Lim Kim, Matilda Algotsson, Viveca Lindfors, Lea Johanna Dastich, Alexia Paganini.


Re-arranging by country –

Russia 18 spots – Medvedeva, Zagitova, Sotskova, Radionova, Tuktamysheva, Tsurskaya, Konstantinova, Panenkova 2, Samodurova (Pogorilaya?) 1, Host Pick 1 (Pogorilaya/Gubanova?)

Japan 18 spots – Miyahara, Higuchi, Sakamoto, Mihara, Honda, Matsuda, Yamashita, Hongo 2, Kihira 1, Host Pick 1 (Kihira?). Will Shiraiwa be put forward rather than Matusda? Might Yuhana Yokoi get a slot?

USA 12 spots – Tennell, Nagasu, Chen, Bell 2, Wang, Hicks, Cui 1. Host Pick 1 (Starr Andrews?). Will Wang and Hicks have their names put forward? Hicks wasn’t on initial selection last year, despite Seasons Best higher than many that were.

Canada 6 spots – Osmond, Daleman 2. Host Picks 2 (Chartrand/Austman?).

Korea 4 spots – Choi 2, Han-Ul Kim 1, Eun-Soo Lim 1.

France 3 spots – Lecavalier 2 (1 Host), Mae Berenice Meite 1 (Host Pick). 3rd host pick?

China 3 spots – Xiangning Li 2 (1 Host), Ziquan Zhao 1 (Host)

Belgium 2 spots – Hendrickx 2

Slovakia 2 spots – Rajicova 2

Kazakhstan 2 spots – Tursynbaeva 2

Germany 2 spots – Nicole Schott 2

Just missing out, but will be next in line – Starr Andrews, Emmy Ma, Alaine Chartrand, Mae Berenice Meite, So Hyan An, Kailani Craine, Ye Lim Kim, Matilda Algotsson, Viveca Lindfors, Lea Johanna Dastich, Alexia Paganini.

 

[Miller]

Also had a go at the Men’s, but much more difficult. There’s so many retirements – I counted at least 15 in the Top 60 Seasons Best. However with the same assumptions, guaranteed spots, educated guess at host picks, and invites in Seasons Best order I got the following (summarised by country).

Russia (17 Spots) – Kolyada, Aliev, Samarin, Voronov, Erokhov (World junior champ), Savosin 2, Dmitriev, Lazukin, Petrov, Ignatov 1, Host Pick 1. Maxim Kovtun would qualify as a return skater if he returns, would be likely to get 1 spot outside of Russia and be eligible for the Host Pick.

USA (10 spots) – Chen, Zhou, Brown, Krasnozhon 2, Johnson 1, Host Pick 1

Japan (9 Spots) – Hanyu, Uno, Tomono, Tanaka 2, Host Pick 1

Canada (7 Spots) – Messing 2, Nguyen, Nadeau, Phan 1, Host Picks 2 (only 1 skater with 2 guaranteed assignments)

France (5 spots) – Ponsart, Aymoz 2 (1 Host Pick each), Besseghier 1 (Host Pick)

Italy 3 spots – Rizzo 2, Righini 1

China 2 spots – Jin 2, Host Picks?

Latvia 2 spots –Vasiljevs 2

Sweden 2 spots – Majorov 2

Czech Republic 2 spots – Brezina 2

Germany 2 spots – Fentz 2

Belgium 2 spots – Hendrickx 2

Israel 2 spots – Samohin 2

Georgia 2 spots – Kvitelashvili 2

Korea 2 spots – Cha, Lee 1

Australia 1 – Kerry 1

Malaysia 1 – Yee 1

Ukraine 1 – Paniot 1

Assumed retirements – Chan, Fernandez (may just be having GP season off), Yan, Bychenko, Ge, Aaron, Rippon (maybe season off), Reynolds, Balde, Miner, Ten, Hochstein, Mura, Liebers, Liam Firus. Best wait till the actual announcement!

Edited to reflect updated world standings. Last ones in who may miss out if some of the 'retirees' don't actually retire - Lazukin, Lee, Phan, Yee, Petrov, Aymoz, Ignatov (last one in). Just missing out i.e. next in line if others drop out, could also be selected no matter what - Pulkinen, Dolensky, Sumoto, Torgashev, Samoilov,Besseghier, Pavlov.

 

[Koatterce]

Canada (7 Spots) – Messing 2, Nguyen, Firus, Nadeau, Phan 1, Host Pick 1

Assumed retirements – Chan, Fernandez, Yan, Bychenko, Ge, Aaron, Rippon, Reynolds, Balde, Miner, Ten, Hochstein, Mura, Righini, Liebers. Best wait till the actual announcement!

I believe Firus is retiring as well

 

[pearly]

Each GP gets one host pick or more?

 

[invisiblespiral]

Isn't Danielan too young for seniors? :scratch: