- Joined
- Feb 17, 2010
I think Alena also gets a one point edge by having her combo in the bonus. A half point or point advantage on most elements adds up pretty quick
2019-20 Russian Ladies' Figure Skating
- Thread starter Spirals for Miles
- Start date
I think Alena also gets a one point edge by having her combo in the bonus. A half point or point advantage on most elements adds up pretty quick
If you look at the breakdown the Base value bonus for Alena is 0.95 for having it in the bonus. But if Rika would ad the 3Lz back she would have that in the bonus and then Alionas advantage would only be about 0.3 (10% of 3T BV)
So I was wondering how the outcome tomorrow between Rika and Aliona would be if both skated clean and decided to make an estimation based on these principles
1) For BV i assume no errors such as e,< or missed levels.
2) GOE is based on what they got on their elements in the short or the last time the performed them in a big Comp. Rika was a bit tricky here since she never competed a similair layout, for example her 3F+Eu+3S GOE is based on what she got for her 3F+3T in the past. For the 4S i guessed averege GOE +1.5 based on what Sasha usualy gets when she lands them.
3) PCS is the same as in the short but refactored
So here it goes
TES BV Aliona 70.15 Rika 77.61
TES GOE Aliona 18.52 Rika 16.96
PCS Aliona 71.33 Rika 70.91
FP score Aliona 160.00 Rika 165.48
SP score Aliona 85.04 Rika 19.89
Total Aliona 245.04 Rika 245.37
So that was verry close 0.33 in the end is deffenitly within the margin of error for this type of calculation. The conclusion is that either could win but it probably comes down to who is cleanest and that small details will matter. We are in for a verry exiting comp tomorrow. Good luck to all skaters!
1) For BV i assume no errors such as e,< or missed levels.
2) GOE is based on what they got on their elements in the short or the last time the performed them in a big Comp. Rika was a bit tricky here since she never competed a similair layout, for example her 3F+Eu+3S GOE is based on what she got for her 3F+3T in the past. For the 4S i guessed averege GOE +1.5 based on what Sasha usualy gets when she lands them.
3) PCS is the same as in the short but refactored
So here it goes
TES BV Aliona 70.15 Rika 77.61
TES GOE Aliona 18.52 Rika 16.96
PCS Aliona 71.33 Rika 70.91
FP score Aliona 160.00 Rika 165.48
SP score Aliona 85.04 Rika 19.89
Total Aliona 245.04 Rika 245.37
So that was verry close 0.33 in the end is deffenitly within the margin of error for this type of calculation. The conclusion is that either could win but it probably comes down to who is cleanest and that small details will matter. We are in for a verry exiting comp tomorrow. Good luck to all skaters!
- Joined
- Oct 20, 2017
I've just found this on Ted Barton's Twitter:
How cool would it be if ISU livestreamed RusNats with Ted's commentary. One can dream
How cool would it be if ISU livestreamed RusNats with Ted's commentary. One can dream
- Joined
- Nov 12, 2013
I've just found this on Ted Barton's Twitter:
How cool would it be if ISU livestreamed RusNats with Ted's commentary. One can dream
That would be cool indeed. And just imagine the increase in the viewership base if all major Nationals were streamed and archived - Russian, US, Japan, Korea, China, Canada... FS would do a lot to promote itself if someone figured out how to make these more widely accessible.
Very tight! I would say you should probably give the 4S a <. I’ve never seen her full rotate even in practice so I think it’s more likely.
As I said this was with asuuming everyting was clean which I take to include fully rotated. However I think that the likelyhood of Aliona being clean is higher than Rika, mostly because of her 4S often being under in videos weve seen as well as her having been injured and competing with a layout thats completely new for her. My guess is that if she lands the 4S with an < she would get 3-5pts less than in my calculation depending on how the < influences the GOE.
For me the calculation was mostly an exercise to see if Aliona was safe if she skated clean or if Rika was capable of making up the points she lost in the short today tomorrow which I belive she is. How likely it is is another matter entirely and one that is much more difficult to answer with math (which is my strong suit).
Judging from how high Alena's GOE and PCS were in the SP, I'd say her potential score when clean would be higher than 160.00. Her Finlandia FS with a UR 3A earned 157.59. Add back points for a clean 3A and she'd already be at 161. Sprinkle in higher GOE for maybe another 1-2 pts, and PCS another 1-2. She'd probably end up around 163-165 depending on how generous judges are (and judging from the SP, very generous).
- Joined
- Mar 16, 2019
We’re being greedy here, so it wasn’t generous enough for Aliona :taunt:
But any extra sprinkle points are welcome though, so, let’s hope judges will not be holding back lol
- Joined
- Dec 9, 2017
Since you made your post sound a certain way, too, I‘m sure that was a “choice“ as well then. As for the risk thing. That was mainly a joke but seeing the answers I‘ve been getting from you and flanker, I wonder if I should have been more serious lol. It‘s nothing new that any mention of a Tutberidze skater changing coaches/choreographers is met with a lot (passive) aggressive comments explaining why this is not going to happen. I‘m sure I made my post sound a certain way, though. Is it anything new that I believe one has to be very careful when leaving Eteri? No. I do not want to wish going into this but that‘s my opinion after what happened with the last few students. Everyone is perfectly free to think differently, of course! But, yes, stating an opinion in here like that is in a way, a risk, unless you‘re a person who enjoys discussing in a certain (not fruitful) way. Which I‘m not.
As for the second part. I think this is a bit naive to be perfectly honest. Of course, if Alina really wanted to change coaches, she could do it and I‘m sure she would manage. So, yes, I do agree that it wouldn’t be an insurmountable issue. But that it would come without difficulties? That‘s... well... I think you‘re seriously underestimating the changes in life you have when you move away from your country. Especially in the case of Alina who is still very young, doesn‘t seem to be quite comfortable in speaking English (even though I‘m sure she understands quite a lot of it by now) and has never even been to the US. That‘s quite a lot to handle. Not to mention being away from literally everybody who speaks your language and shares your traditions. Alina is brave but she’s only human.
I also think living abroad comes with other additional aspects. It‘s not just “pack your things and go“. One has to consider rooming, visa issues, food, expenses and other things I‘m probably not thinking of right now. It‘s a big change and imo, not exactly comparable to moving within your own country. (Before you‘re picking that part of the comment apart: I realise that moving to a big unknown city at 12 is very brave as well and should be applauded! I still do not think it‘s entirely the same)
Like I said, I think Alina could do it if she really wanted to but it would be very, very difficult and she would risk struggling like anyone else when adapting to such a situation. With the Olympics being only 2 years away, I’m not sure it would be worth it. But again, if she wanted to she should do it. I’d be the first one to cheer her on! But I support her staying with Eteri too, if that makes her happy. I might have some wishes regarding choreography and stuff like that but ultimately, I know that I’m just some random fan on the internet and my opinion is not the one that matters at all. My original post, however, was actually more of the idea why Alina would not want to change coaches anyway. That‘s all. Don‘t see where this is offensive in any way.
It would be difficult for any skater to move across the world. But Evgenia did it, Marin Honda did it, Yuna Kim, You Young, Eunsoo Lim, etc. I think the point that other posters are trying to make is that Alina already made a big move away from her parents and home when she was 12; that's something very few skaters have done. So moving across the world, something many skaters have done, while difficult, wouldn't be that difficult for Alina who has already learned to live without her parents from a very young age. She already has a lot of experience with this, in addition to living in a tiny apartment without the privacy of her own bedroom, sleeping on couches at training camps, not having friends, etc. And now she also has the finances to go with it, which she clearly didn't have when she moved to Moscow. It's just a matter of whether a coach across the world can improve her skating more than her current coaches, and I don't think so. We can see Eteri's camp is helping her adapt her jump technique to match with her body changes. And while she makes mistakes here and there, she still has her jumps (the same content at her peak). But Alina will still be representing Russia and have to compete against the 3A for a Worlds spot, no matter who her coach is. So unless there is some coach, Raf or otherwise, who can magically give Alina quads and 3As, because realistically that's what she needs to win against her compatriots, she's probably better off with Eteri.
I really don't think the longevity problem in the Russian ladies is because of who's coaching them; I don't think you're done when you're 18 with Eteri, there are just better skaters each year. Theres no way you can fit 6 world class skaters into 3 spots. And when 3 of the 6 skaters are landing 3As and quads consistently along with doing all their other elements to the highest level, it's obvious who is going to be top 3. Alina isn't losing her jumps and spins, she makes mistakes but she has always done this even at her peak; she just had the luxury of being able to before when the competition wasn't as high. Now, the skaters don't have such luxury. But that's not a coaching problem, ladies figure skating is just extremely popular in Russia right now.
- Joined
- Oct 27, 2019
Just saw Alina’s reaction to her skate. I don’t think she’s as calm as her team would like us to believe. She seemed very sad about her skate. The younger girls are leaving her behind and I’m sure it’s difficult for her
Forget about "what her team would like us to believe", people were putting so much intentions, often opposing, to their heads, putting so much words into their mouths, like which skater is favourable, who will be left behind, who should move etc., that such claims are starting to be mistaken one for another. The only important thing is what people really say and this comes from what Alina herself has said. So, unless you have something that would disprove her own words, I think this claim has no value.
- Joined
- Feb 17, 2010
I think not only for her, but Evgenia and Liza too. A good SP from Evgenia would be almost 10 points behind what Alena put out today. Liza at least had a technical edge over Alina and Evgenia with the 3A, but the three new stars are all technically stronger. Like most skaters from the past, the new seniors will probably have a dip in form sooner or later. The problem is that there are more talented skaters coming through the ranks who do 3As and/or quads, so I don't know how motivated the past world champions will be if they only have a minimal shot of making a World or Olympic team.
- Joined
- Oct 27, 2019
Exactly. This season may be difficult for Zagitova, Medvedeva and Liza. Tukt and Medvedeva have already faced having someone more technically advanced pass them so they knew they were playing catch up. This is new for Zagitova. I expect she will be clean in the LP, however she’s not Russia’s top lady anymore. Next season may be different for all the ladies so I hope none get too discouraged.
- Joined
- Jan 19, 2005
Last season, Rika Kihira was also more technically advanced than Alina.
Also, Alina is not an ostrich with her head in the sand.
She trains with the very 3 Russian Ladies who are also outpacing her technically.
She's probably seen them do even more than what they've shown in competition this season.
Furthermore, she also trains with Lil'Bet who has a quad.
Maybe she was just upset because she made a couple of big mistakes in her SP today.
I'm sure she didn't want to put herself at such a disadvantage going into the LP.
Especially because a poor finish could leave her out of the GPF.
Also, Alina is not an ostrich with her head in the sand.
She trains with the very 3 Russian Ladies who are also outpacing her technically.
She's probably seen them do even more than what they've shown in competition this season.
Furthermore, she also trains with Lil'Bet who has a quad.
Maybe she was just upset because she made a couple of big mistakes in her SP today.
I'm sure she didn't want to put herself at such a disadvantage going into the LP.
Especially because a poor finish could leave her out of the GPF.
Alina....did anyone notice what seems to be small nude patches on her back like bandages? There were two of them, relatively small. Anyone know what they're for? Anyway, I wonder if it might be worth re-working her combos to be -3T instead of -3Lo. It's less BV, but will perhaps be easier for her to do, with less risk of UR as well. This is the best program she has ever had, and it suits her maturity extremely well. But I hated seeing her so sad.
The small patches on Zagitova's back were probably pieces of KT Tape, its used for muscle stability and support, especially if you have pain or an injury, she taped her knees most of last season.
They really can't reduce her BV anymore, she's doing the least technically difficult programs that she's ever done as a senior, the only reason that she has backloaded her triple-triple combo once in her FS at IDF and her SP at NHK was because she botched the first jump of the combo and needed to put the second jump somewhere else.
I think what could also be contributing to being upset is that she doesn't have and isn't training the difficult content that Shcherbakova/Kostornaia/Trusova are, her "advantage" over them in getting selected for Europeans and Worlds is that she should theoretically be a less risky choice because she's not doing the risky elements - this her second GP event of the season and of the 4 Eteri seniors, she's the 1 that's put out the messiest skates.
I also think it hurts her that Rika is planning a quad now. With the triple axels, if clean Zagitova could possibly still be competitive with Rika and beat her if Rika faltered on 1 of her jumps, now with a quad Rika can afford a botched jump and still get a better technical score than Zagitova. Shcherbakova seems to be the skater most talked about as getting left off in favor of Zagitova or Medvedeva - if Rika has that quad fairly consistent, a clean Zagitova or Medvedeva won't have a chance to beat her; a clean Shcherbakova with quad lutz jumps can.
- Joined
- Mar 20, 2019
Hey, I never said she would do it, that’s almost impossible. I just said I think it would be good for her, considering she’s probably not getting full attention at Sambo70 since there are so many senior ladies there, and I think she would be treated like a priority by Rafael. But she doesn’t seem like the kind of person that would leave, I think her relationship with her country, with her family and with her coaches (mainly Daniil) are very important for her. And this thought didn’t come now, after seeing her SP, I’ve been thinking about it since the beginning of the season. Sometimes, I like to play a game in my head that I can suggest everything to all the skaters. Like music for the programs, choreography, costumes, and even coaches. In my head, my programa are the best ever [emoji23][emoji23][emoji23]
- Joined
- Sep 8, 2016
I’m trying to figure out at what time in the early morning I need to get up for the ladies free skate. I’m on EST. Does anyone know for sure? I think it’s around 3am but I’m not sure....
Rooting for Alina and Aliona to do awesome long programs. Good luck!!
Rooting for Alina and Aliona to do awesome long programs. Good luck!!
