2018-19 Canadian figure skating

My 4CC preview

Men: Keegan Messing, Nam Nguyen, Nicolas Nadeau

Shoma should be the likely winner here. His scoring potential is above the rest, mainly due to his BV, so he has some leeway for errors.
Silver and bronze seem like they will be between Keegan, Junhwan, Jason, and Boyang. If Keegan skates clean, he will have a veryyy good shot at the podium, but it'll be close if these 4 are all clean. I don't actually know how Boyang will score this season though since he hasn't competed yet.
Nam might have a very outside shot for the podium, but I think it's very unlikely. But he could place top 6 or so with a clean skate. His main competition will be Kazuki and Vincent.
Nicolas has been struggling with some inconsistency, we'll see which Nic shows up, but he'll be around 9th with a clean skate.

My prediction: Shoma, Junhwan, Jason - though I won't be surprised if Boyang or Keegan podium (my biased opinion wants Keegan)

Ladies: Alaine Chartrand, Veronik Mallet, Larkyn Austman

I won't be surprised to see a Japanese sweep of the podium here.
Many ladies can be quite inconsistent, so this is quite hard to predict.
Looking at ISU SB, there are 9 ladies that have scored high 196+ this season. Alaine's SB is 172, and she scored 186 at nationals. Rotation will be key for her, but it will still be difficult to score that high. However, some of those ladies can be inconsistent and may score lower. I think Alaine has a shot for top 10. Her main competition will be Christy. Likely she'll end up around 11th.
Veronik's SB is only a bit lower than Alaine's, but as she's still recovering from injury and not doing the harder jumps, she doesn't have as high of a scoring potential.
I have no idea where to put Larkyn since she hasn't competed internationally this season. She did quite well at nationals, but she did the same last year and couldn't match that internationally. We will see what happens here.

My prediction: Rika, Kaori, Mai - won't be surprised if the order is different

Pairs: Kirsten Moore-Towers / Michael Marinaro, Camille Ruest / Andrew Wolfe, Evelyn Walsh / Trennt Michaud

If Sui/Han are anywhere near form, they're going to win this no problem.
Silver and bronze should go to Peng/Jin and MT/M. I'd give P/J the edge here, but Kirsten and Michael can give them a run for their money. Regardless, these two teams should be on the podium.
Evelyn and Trennt should place somewhere around 8th. The American teams + Ryom/Kim will likely place above them. They've improved a lot since the GP, but I think the gap is too big to close barring mistakes. However, they might be able to move up if the others make mistakes.
Camille and Drew will likely place one or two spots below W/M. Their main competition will be Alexandrovskaya/Windsor.

My prediction: Sui/Han, Peng/Jin, Moore-Towers/Marinaro - I'd love for Kirsten and Michael to place second

Dance: Laurence Fournier Beaudry / Nikolaj Sorensen, Piper Gilles / Paul Poirier, Kaitlyn Weaver / Andrew Poje

This field is hard to predict. Based on how scoring has been going so far, I'd say Hubbell / Donohue are the favourites, but it is by no means a lock.
I think Kaitlyn and Andrew have a shot for gold, but at least silver. They scored very well at ACI, but that was at the beginning of the season, and they've improved since. We will see how this goes.
Piper and Paul also have a shot at a medal. Which one, will depend on if they can hit those RD levels (this has always been their nemesis, but it's especially obvious this year with their improvements in other areas). At the very least, they can fight with Chock/Bates for the bronze. But if they nail their RD, they might have a shot at gold or silver, though it won't be easy.
Laurence and Nikolaj aren't quite as good as the top 4, but they should place 5th or 6th, Their main competition will be Hawayek/Baker. It'll be interesting to see how judges score them, since we haven't seen them internationally yet this year.

My prediction: Hubbell/Donohue, Weaver/Poje, Gilles/Poirier - won't be surprised if Chock/Bates podium instead

Koatterce said:

My 4CC preview

Pairs: Kirsten Moore-Towers / Michael Marinaro, Camille Ruest / Andrew Wolfe, Evelyn Walsh / Trennt Michaud

If Sui/Han are anywhere near form, they're going to win this no problem.
Silver and bronze should go to Peng/Jin and MT/M. I'd give P/J the edge here, but Kirsten and Michael can give them a run for their money. Regardless, these two teams should be on the podium.
Evelyn and Trennt should place somewhere around 8th. The American teams + Ryom/Kim will likely place above them. They've improved a lot since the GP, but I think the gap is too big to close barring mistakes. However, they might be able to move up if the others make mistakes.
Camille and Drew will likely place one or two spots below W/M. Their main competition will be Alexandrovskaya/Windsor.

My prediction: Sui/Han, Peng/Jin, Moore-Towers/Marinaro - I'd love for Kirsten and Michael to place second

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They actually have a higher SB than Denney/Frazier by a couple of points, one of the US teams going. D/F have higher scoring potential, but typically have jump mistakes at least.

SnowWhite said:

They actually have a higher SB than Denney/Frazier by a couple of points, one of the US teams going. D/F have higher scoring potential, but typically have jump mistakes at least.

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yeah I saw that, but D/F had a pretty disastrous SP that competition, which I don't expect to be a regular occurrence. But that's why I added the part where they can move up if others make mistakes

BillNeal said:

So with the all the 4CC entries announced, I'm predicting gold and bronze for dance and gold in pairs, with a decent shot at a bronze for men's and a top 5 finish for ladies.

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Wow, you are being optimistic for Canada. Remember in pairs There are the Chinese and Americans who Canadaarenot a sure bet in beating - the Americansthat is.

Then in men again most likely two Japanese men and two American will be ahead not to mention Boyang and maybe another Japanese and American guy plus S Korea. Canada may have it tough for top five.


As for ladies you have three Japaneseladies andprobably at least 2 Americans forget China, Korea et al.

In dance Hubbell and donahoe are still faves - World silver medallists and they have competed all year. you also have Chock and Bates - both US teams coudl beat allteh Canadians. Certainly potential both Canadians could medal in dace but gold unlikely

BillNeal said:

So with the all the 4CC entries announced, I'm predicting gold and bronze for dance and gold in pairs, with a decent shot at a bronze for men's and a top 5 finish for ladies.

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Are you serious? H/D in dance? S/H in pairs? Did you see the ladies entries? I would be very surprised if any lady placed in the top 10. Only the mens prediction is even possible.

Skater Boy said:

Wow, you are being optimistic for Canada.

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Someone needs to balance your half glass empty approach in this thread.

bobbob said:

Are you serious? H/D in dance? S/H in pairs?

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I clarified regarding S/H in my second post. OTOH, H/D are not the S/H of ice dance. They have good speed but with their lacklustre programs this season compared to the last, Weaver/Poje very well can beat them. In the tango romantica, where teams can be directly compared, W/P has better execution than even P/C (see my post in the ice dance power rankings).

Did you see the ladies entries? I would be very surprised if any lady placed in the top 10. Only the mens prediction is even possible.

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Did you see Alaine Chartrand's performance at Nationals? She is gaining momentum throughout the season and a Top 10 finish for her is very very likely. Weren't you also very surprised by the GPF ladies result?

bobbob said:

Are you serious? H/D in dance? S/H in pairs? Did you see the ladies entries? I would be very surprised if any lady placed in the top 10. Only the mens prediction is even possible.

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Underestimating Canadians esp. our women is not new on GS. The phrase, ''I did not see that coming'' has been used so often the past quad and no doubt will again.

chuckm said:

We don't know the current status of the frequently injured Boyang JIN

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He only had that one ankle strain injury last year that kept him out of the gpf. Hardly frequent compared to some injury prone skaters

Jin won 2018 4CC, was 4th at the Olympics and then 19th at Worlds. This season he was 5th at Cup of Finland and then 9th at TDF. Something has obviously gone awry with him. From reports, he did well at Chinese Nationals, but he didn't have much competition there, so we don't know for sure his current condition, or how he will fare against tougher.

Koatterce said:

My 4CC preview

Men: Keegan Messing, Nam Nguyen, Nicolas Nadeau

Shoma should be the likely winner here. His scoring potential is above the rest, mainly due to his BV, so he has some leeway for errors.
Silver and bronze seem like they will be between Keegan, Junhwan, Jason, and Boyang. If Keegan skates clean, he will have a veryyy good shot at the podium, but it'll be close if these 4 are all clean. I don't actually know how Boyang will score this season though since he hasn't competed yet.
Nam might have a very outside shot for the podium, but I think it's very unlikely. But he could place top 6 or so with a clean skate. His main competition will be Kazuki and Vincent.
Nicolas has been struggling with some inconsistency, we'll see which Nic shows up, but he'll be around 9th with a clean skate.

My prediction: Shoma, Junhwan, Jason - though I won't be surprised if Boyang or Keegan podium (my biased opinion wants Keegan)

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Boyang has competed in China nationals and looking really strong. He lands 4Lz in SP and FS which cleanly performed and total 5 quads. I'll be surprised if he didnt get on the podium tbh.

SP - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZB15s4WuVqU&t=125s
FS - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ikKWcmp8NXQ

BillNeal said:

Did you see Alaine Chartrand's performance at Nationals? She is gaining momentum throughout the season and a Top 10 finish for her is very very likely. Weren't you also very surprised by the GPF ladies result?

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I did see the protocols.

SP: 2a, 3z↓, 3lo+2t 59.22
FS: 3z+3t<, 3f!, 2a, 3lo, 2a+eu+3s, 3z<, 3s<+2t 126.29

At Skate Canada, she actually had a better SP, with just the UR on the 3z+3t<
Her FS at SC was eerily similar to what she did at Nationals: 3z+3t<, 2fe, 2a, 3lo, 2a+eu+3s<, 2z, 2a<+2t, the main difference being the doubled flip and lutz.

Alaine does tend to skate her best at Nationals. But her improvement at Nationals wasn't huge over what she'd done earlier in the season, and doesn't predict what she will do at competitions against tougher competitors.

In 2016, Alaine had the skate of her life winning her first Nationals title, then was 11th at 2016 4CC and 17th at 2016 Worlds.

I think it's great to be optimistic, but I also like to be realistic. Consider both the best case scenarios and what seems most likely. So, my little 4CCs preview:

Ladies

Here, I have the Japanese ladies as the podium favourites, with the US ladies and Eunsoo as dark horses. I think Kaori or Rika are the most likely winners, but it can go any way. I doubt Ting Cui will skate clean, so Bradie's the most likely of the US ladies to medal. She may need help from the JPN ladies to do so. Now, looking at the Canadian ladies, Alaine is inconsistent and has < issues. That's the reality. I hope she's on an upward path right now, but it's not realistic to expect a couple of clean programs from her right now. Veronik and Larkyn have pretty low technical content. I would pick Veronik to place ahead of Larkyn, if I had to guess.

The most interesting is how high Alaine can place realistically with a pretty good Skate (at least SCI/Nationals level or a bit better). She got 172.17 at SCI and 185.91 at Nationals (which of course tends to score higher than internationals). As long as she manages a SB, I'll be happy. Looking at those numbers, I'd expect at the least for the 3 JPN ladies, Bradie, Mariah and Eunsoo to be ahead of her for sure (if they totally bomb of course, who knows, but they can all easily be above 180 with mistakes). So that's 6.

Then there's Ting, Yelim Kim and Elizabet Tursynbaeva. I'd predict they all beat Alaine too, but there are a few more questions with them. Ting struggles to skate two clean programs, but the judges really like her skating. Her SB (with mistakes) from Tallinn is 199 (those scores run high, but still). But she did have 156 and 172 on the JGP. Yelim was very strong at the start of the season, but she struggled at Korean Nationals and missed the JW team. I heard she was having boot problems at Nats. If her form is good, she's likely to beat Alaine (her SB is 196), but if her form is similar to Nationals then Alaine can beat her. Elizabet started the season strong, but then didn't score as well on the GP (not close to that 200 SB), and we haven't seen her for a bit. But her GP scores were still 180-185, so I'll put her ahead in my predictions. That makes 9.

So Alaine can be top ten without beating any of Kaori, Rika, Mai, Bradie, Mariah, Ting, Elizabet or Yelim. There are girls like Kailani or Brooklee that could possibly be ahead of her, but the only other lady there with a higher SB than Alaine is Yi Christy Leung. Her SB is ~5 points ahead of Alaine's at 177. She's had 2 other results around 171 and 173, and one at 159. She's a little ahead of Alaine, but in range.

My conclusion would be that top ten is not a guarantee for Alaine, but it is doable for her and a good goal. Best case would be maybe 8th.

Pairs

Obviously, they are just coming back from injury again, but based on how good S/H are, I'll put them first for now. I think Peng/Jin are the most likely team to beat them if they aren't totally ready, based mostly on the GPF. That should make P/J favourites for the silver, though we saw them score quite close to MT/M on the GP at SCI, so it's not a guarantee that they beat MT/M. Most realistically, I'd like to see MT/M get the bronze, and if it works out for them to place higher that's fantastic, but obviously not them most likely scenario. The biggest threats for Kirsten and Mike are Kayne/O'Shea, Cain/Leduc and Ryom/Kim. MT/M need to skate well to make sure they medal.

Walsh/Michaud are mostly looking for experience here. 7th-8th would be a realistic result for them. Their SB is above Denney/Frazier, but the Americans have the higher scoring potential. If W/M beat them here, that would be a very good result. Ruest/Wolfe would like to beat W/M here, but I think a good result for them would be staying ahead of the Aussies.

Men

Shoma should be on the podium for sure. Based on his performance and Chinese Nats, Boyang should too, but his GP results show that he can easily bomb his way off the podium. Even without Nathan and Yuzuru, the men's event here should be strong. The other medal contenders would be Junhwan Cha, Jason Brown, Keegan, maybe Vincent Zhou (tech panel dependant), Nam and Kazuki. If Shoma and Boyang are on the podium, then I think the mostly likely third man is Jun, with Jason and Keegan next. Keegan I have there mostly because we've seen that the judges will score him big when he skates well, but he's been shakier at his last few events. But men are pretty unpredictable, so I can see any of these guys ending up on the podium. Keegan and Nam should both aim for podium/top 5, but it's a deep event so we'll see how it shakes out.

For Nic, I'm only going to hope for a good performance of that FS. If he places well, that's a nice surprise for me.

I hope Nam and Nic can get SB scores.

Dance

I think that regardless of your feelings about their programs, H/D should be considered the favourites here based on their results this season (and the quality of their skating really is top notch). I don't think it's a lock, but it is the mostly likely outcome imo. If they do get upset, I think that it probably would be by either W/P or C/B. That's the most likely podium also imo, but G/P certainly have lots of chances to get a medal. As much as I love their programs, I don't see them beating all three to win (partially politics, but also due to weaknesses in their skating). I'll guess a podium of H/D, W/P and C/B in that order (W/P are Canadian #1s and C/B look really good right now, despite missing time) - but it's not set at all imo. Anyways, as long as we get good skates, I'll be happy since I really like these teams. Best case is probably 1st/3rd for the Canadians, but I'm not expecting that outcome.

Almost more interesting to me is the battle for 5th. How do Fournier Beaudry/Sorensen stack up against Hawayek/Baker? That'll be interesting. It's hard to predict, since FB/S haven't been out internationally in a year. I'd like to see FB/S come out on top, but we'll see what happens.

chuckm said:

Alaine does tend to skate her best at Nationals. But her improvement at Nationals wasn't huge over what she'd done earlier in the season, and doesn't predict what she will do at competitions against tougher competitors.

In 2016, Alaine had the skate of her life winning her first Nationals title, then was 11th at 2016 4CC and 17th at 2016 Worlds.

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I highly doubt you predicted Alaine would win her second National title. Few did. Also, some posters, you know those who come here once every few weeks to say how the Canadian skaters aren’t competitive (including in the team event four seasons from now), had predicted the Canadian ladies finishing behind all the others at Skate Canada. Yet Alaine finished 8th at Skate Canada, in front of a Russian and Japanese lady. She has been defying expectations throughout this season, following the disappointment of not making the team last year and showing strength of character. While Top 5 leans towards optimism, people who think she doesn’t have a decent shot at Top 10 at 4CC is downright discounting her.

No, I never expected Alaine to win: I had hoped Gabby could somehow pull herself together and do just enough to defend her title.

That Alaine won just shows how weak the ladies field is at present. Osmond is off on a break. The remaining top skaters couldn't perform at their best: Gabby underprepared and still on the mend, Aurora dealing with a growth spurt and hip injury.

Alaine, of course, is the most experienced and has the best track record of the second tier contenders. Veronik has limited tech and is still in recovery from a long-term injury, and Larkyn has had poor international results. After Gabby's FS meltdown, it wasn't surprising that Alaine came out on top.

Yes, Alaine beat Russian and Japanese skaters at SC, but neither finished well at their 2018 Nationals: Panenkova was 8th (18th this year) and Matsuda 11th. But Alaine also placed behind Starr Andrews, who had bombed at SA.

BillNeal said:

I clarified regarding S/H in my second post. OTOH, H/D are not the S/H of ice dance. They have good speed but with their lacklustre programs this season compared to the last, Weaver/Poje very well can beat them. In the tango romantica, where teams can be directly compared, W/P has better execution than even P/C (see my post in the ice dance power rankings).


Did you see Alaine Chartrand's performance at Nationals? She is gaining momentum throughout the season and a Top 10 finish for her is very very likely. Weren't you also very surprised by the GPF ladies result?

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You can claim that W/P have a better tango execution than P/C, fine, but this is a prediction you are making, not a preference or evaluation. There is no way the judges are putting W/P above P/C OR H/D, regardless of how good their tango is. I guarantee you.

First of all you are predicting top 5, not top 10. So she would have to beat one of Kaori, Rika, Mai, Mariah, Bradie, plus everyone else in the field. Ting, Elizabet, Yelim, Eun-soo, and Yi Christy also have much better results this season. She had problems that were not called at Nationals, there were at least 5 URs in that program (would not have topped 110 internationally). It is possible she finishes in the top 10, though it would be more likely than not she does not. There is absolutely no chance she finishes in the top 5.

I predicted Alina 1st Rika 2nd and Liza 3rd, so the first two were swapped. I was not "very surprised", no. What does that have to do with anything?

Read SnowWhite's predictions. They are much more logical and objective than yours...

I would say, ladies best finish 11th, pairs 3rd, men 5th, dance 2nd.

Osmond4gold said:

Underestimating Canadians esp. our women is not new on GS. The phrase, ''I did not see that coming'' has been used so often the past quad and no doubt will again.

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What do you think about SnowWhite's predictions though? They make sense to me. Kaori, Rika, Mai, Mariah, Bradie generally will score 185+ which Alaine probably cannot get internationally, seeing how she only got 185 at Nationals. Elizabet, Eunsoo, and Yelim have also posted some relatively high numbers this season; their lowest is greater than Alaine's highest. Ting and Yi Christy have averaged higher too. Assuming everyone goes clean, or everyone skates the same as they did earlier in the season, Alaine would probably place 11th. There may be some movement of course, so she could place better than 11th or worse than 11th, but 11th would be my expected value prediction.

Alaine had her best 4CC finishes in the two Olympic years 2014 (7th) and 2018 (8th), when many of the top competitors skipped 4CC.

In the intervening years 2015 through 2017, she was 10th, 11th and 11th.

bobbob said:

YThere is no way the judges are putting W/P above P/C OR H/D, regardless of how good their tango is. I guarantee you.

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I thought we were talking 4CC predictions. P/C are going to be at 4CC??????

What is the use of such a thread if it's just a place to shame Canadian skaters? A few on here have done nothing over the past quad but attempt to belittle Canadian skaters in their development. The same skaters who went on to become Olympic and World Champions. Now they're back and ready to attack the remainders. Fresh meat anyone?

bobbob said:

You can claim that W/P have a better tango execution than P/C, fine, but this is a prediction you are making, not a preference or evaluation. There is no way the judges are putting W/P above P/C OR H/D, regardless of how good their tango is. I guarantee you.

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Your rebuttal is hollow. Why are you saying that there's no possibility at all that W/P can beat H/D? Let me remind you how people also thought that it was "guaranteed" that Weaver/Poje were going to be put behind Pechalat/Bourzat and Ilinykh/Katsalapov at 2014 Worlds but instead challenged for the gold and could have won with 0.03 more points. And most recently, they won a bronze ahead of Cappellini/Lanotte, who also put on stellar performances, in Milan. W/P has been one of the most underappreciated ice dance teams (see 2010 Nationals) but through their talent and perseverance, they have earned (deservingly so) the recognition from fans and judges.

First of all you are predicting top 5, not top 10. So she would have to beat one of Kaori, Rika, Mai, Mariah, Bradie, plus everyone else in the field. Ting, Elizabet, Yelim, Eun-soo, and Yi Christy also have much better results this season. She had problems that were not called at Nationals, there were at least 5 URs in that program (would not have topped 110 internationally). It is possible she finishes in the top 10, though it would be more likely than not she does not. There is absolutely no chance she finishes in the top 5.

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URs aside (and please provide examples/video on where these extra URs that you're claiming are coming from), Alaine has a much better competitive mindset than last season. To come back from last year of not making the Olympic team and also to come back from the SP to lay it down as the first skater in the final group to take her second National title is admirable. She is defying expectations (see my post to chuckm above) and is getting better with each subsequent competition. She can very well keep improving and defy your little expectation of an 11th place finish for her.

I predicted Alina 1st Rika 2nd and Liza 3rd, so the first two were swapped. I was not "very surprised", no. What does that have to do with anything?

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There were many people that thought Alina had an unjustified PCS gap over Rika and were very surprised when that didn't happen, you included. Just like how you think there's some big gap that H/D has over W/P. And also it shows how things are not fixed in stone until the actual competition unlike your "guarantees."

Read SnowWhite's predictions. They are much more logical and objective than yours...

I would say, ladies best finish 11th, pairs 3rd, men 5th, dance 2nd.

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Sure, my predictions lean towards optimism but I can hardly say your responses are "logical and objective" considering how little substance you have provided in them.