2018-19 Canadian figure skating

BillNeal said:

Your rebuttal is hollow. Why are you saying that there's no possibility at all that W/P can beat H/D? Let me remind you how people also thought that it was "guaranteed" that Weaver/Poje were going to end up behind Pechalat/Bourzat and Ilinykh/Katsalapov at 2014 Worlds but instead challenged for the gold and could have won with 0.03 more points. And most recently, they won a bronze ahead of Cappellini/Lanotte, who also put on stellar performances, in Milan. W/P has been one of the most underappreciated ice dance teams (see 2010 Nationals) but through their talent and perseverance, they have earned (deservingly so) the recognition from fans and judges.

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I don't remember much about who was the favorite in 2014, and I don't doubt they have great talent and perseverance. But if H/D do not make mistakes, there is no possibility at all, that is correct. This is based on a close analysis of seasons scores and progression--ice dance scores are predictable to a T.

URs aside (and please provide examples/video on where these extra URs that you're claiming are coming from), Alaine has a much better competitive mindset than last season. To come back from last year of not making the Olympic team and also to come back from the SP to lay it down as the first skater in the final group to take her second Nationals title is admirable. She is defying expectations (see my post to chuckm above) and is getting better with each subsequent competition. She can very well defy your little expectation of an 11th place finish for her.

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Watch her nationals free skate--pretty much every triple jump is borderline. She can very well defy my expectation, true. But she can very well do worse as well. An expectation, is just that, an expected value. Mine is based on all prior information such as season best, average, trajectory, potential, etc. to make a logical prediction, a most likely guess. My logic is based on facts, not biased opinions. Because while Alaine is trending upwards, improving, being strong-willed, so are Da-Bin. Eun-Soo. Bradie. Mariah. Kaori. Mai. Rika. Elizabet. And more. Because you follow Alaine closer, you know more about her, which is great, but others are improving just as much. You know more about her story which is a compelling one, but others have just as many improvements that you are unaware of. Thus, I am remaining objective, based on mostly SCORES AND TRENDS.

There were many people that thought Alina had an unjustified PCS gap over Rika and were very surprised when that didn't happen, you included.

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What in the world does this have to do with anything? I agree anything CAN happen, but a prediction is predicting what is most LIKELY to happen.

Sure, my predictions lean towards optimism but I can hardly say your responses are "logical and objective" considering how little substance you have provided in them.

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Predictions are to predict the most LIKELY scenario, not meant to predict the most optimistic scenario.

I know you won't agree with any of my statements even though I've looked closely at seasons bests results (substance) because I'm not Canadian, but read SnowWhite's post for some substance. In sharp contrast, when you proclaimed that Canada would WIN pairs and dance, as well as medal in mens and place top 5 in women you gave no substance at all. You have still yet to provide any substance regarding many of those claims.

So with the all the 4CC entries announced, I'm predicting gold and bronze for dance and gold in pairs, with a decent shot at a bronze for men's and a top 5 finish for ladies.

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I think it is really weird how some people use nationalistic biases to shape predictions (your hope is a totally different thing, and it is totally fine to root for your country's skaters). Perhaps it has to do with the fact that they follow certain skaters more, so they know more about them/think they are improving. But others are improving just as much! Thus, I find that it is better often just to focus on scores and the protocols. Trends and other factors can be considered as well, but it is important to get the whole picture and be realistic.

bobbob said:

In sharp contrast, when you proclaimed that Canada would WIN pairs...

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Funny how you repeatedly ignore that I clarified regarding pairs in my second post after my prediction, even though I pointed that out directly in my first reply to you. With this, it's hard to have a productive conversation with you, in addition to your seemingly 100% confidence in your own predictions. Agreed to disagree. Moving on.

By the way, for those who don't follow closely and discount our skaters, here are some Canadian figure skating highlights and achievements (with some of the best performances from a wide selection) including JGPF/GPF and 4CC titles from the last quad, many of which you likely didn't predict:

Seguin/Bilodeau 2014/15 JGPF title: Short / Free
Weaver/Poje 2014/15 GPF title: Short / Free
Duhamel/Radford 2014/15 GPF title: Short / Free
Weaver/Poje 2015 4CC title: Short / Free
Duhamel/Radford 2015 4CC title: Short / Free
Seguin/Bilodeau 2015 WJSM: Free
Weaver/Poje 2015 WBM: Short / Free
Duhamel/Radford 2015 WGM: Short / Free
Weaver/Poje 2015/16 GPF title: Short / Free
Patrick Chan 2016 4CC title: Short / Free
Nicolas Nadeau 2016 WJSM: Short / Free
Duhamel/Radford 2016 WGM: Short / Free
Virtue/Moir 2016/17 GPF: Short / Free
Virtue/Moir 2017 4CC title: Short / Free
Virtue/Moir 2017 WGM: Short / Free
Gabby Daleman 2017 WBM: Short / Free
Kaetlyn Osmond 2017 WSM: Short / Free
Duhamel/Radford 2018 OBM: Short / Free
Kaetlyn Osmond 2018 OBM: Short / Free
Virtue/Moir 2018 OGM: Short / Free
Team Canada OGM: Recap
Weaver/Poje 2018 WBM: Short / Free
Kaetlyn Osmond 2018 WGM: Short / Free

Some may be geoblocked but those are the videos I could find at the moment. There has recently been a mass deletion of videos because of copyright claims. If anyone else has other highlights, please do share. And so far already for this quad, a JGPF title:

Stephen Gogolev 2018/19 JGPF title: Short / Free

Many more 'surprises' yet to come this quad .

BillNeal said:

Funny how you repeatedly ignore that I clarified regarding pairs in my second post after my prediction, even though I pointed that out directly in my first reply to you. With this, it's hard to have a productive conversation with you, in addition to your seemingly 100% confidence in your own predictions. Agreed to disagree. Moving on.

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It's quite telling you are latching onto one point to end this discussion...the fact of the matter is your predictions are not based on objective fact. While you claim it's hard to have a productive conversation with me, I have discussed every one of your points and brought up ISU scores as clear evidence. You have continually shut me down with points irrelevant to the main discussion of your predictions. I am trying to have a productive discussion but you are making it difficult.

As for the pairs, this is my argument:
Sui and Han, as we both agree are the favorites for gold. In home ice on Canada, a clean M-T/M were unable to beat an unclean P/J (with sbs 2S), and a clean P/J beat M-T/M by around 20 points in Japan. P/J were also runners-up at the Grand Prix Final. This makes them clearly a better prediction for silver than any Canadian pair. So even with the Sui/Han acknowledgement, I am saying that your prediction is still misguided. That was why I brought it up.

What is yours? You have not provided any supporting evidence for M-T/M's (or mens) prediction. Your ladies or dance prediction has not had any fact-based supporting evidence, only that you think Alaine is improving and that W/P have a good tango. Your only support has been that Canadian skaters have performed better than predicted at competitions from several years ago. What does that have anything to do with M-T/M's or Alaine's performance at an upcoming competition?

It's a prediction, expectation. Not a guaranteed result. That I agree. There are many more positive surprises to come from skaters of ALL countries, including Canada. But before the competition, we should predict objectively based on what we know. They should be rooted in fact, not nationalistic bias. Let's make Goldenskate a place without nationalistic generalizations.

I will agree to end this conversation for now. We can agree to take another look after the Four Continents. Let's see whose predictions are more accurate.

Is Aurora Cotop going to go to any competition this season?

Sabrina said:

Is Aurora Cotop going to go to any competition this season?

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She’s going to Bavarian Open to get her minimums for Worlds. She’ll likely go to Worlds if she does, as she is the National Silver medalist, but I think the results from 4CC for the others would also be taken into consideration.

Bavarian Open starts just two weeks from today, but no official entry list is available yet.

I hope Aurora gets her minimums. She is needed at Worlds.

Sabrina said:

Is Aurora Cotop going to go to any competition this season?

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Bavarian open, likely to get her minimum for Sr worlds and then worlds

At this point, imo, I think the Canadian Ladies thread should be merged into this thread.

Sometimes the same topics are discussed for the ladies in both threads and it's difficult to keep track of the conversations. Do others feel the same way?

Bavarian Open entries are up. In addition to Aurora in senior ladies, we have a bunch of others
- Conrad Orzel in Sr men
- Lajoie/Lagha and Fabbri/Ayer in Jr dance
- Wesley Chiu in Ad. novice boys (the novice champ)
- Kagolovskaya/MacDonald and Kam/Carter in ad. novice dance (the novice gold+silver teams)
- Several girls in ad. novice: Melaurie Boivin, Vienna Hardwood, Dorelia Lugo-Mayrand, Melody Zhu, Kaia Ruiter

SnowWhite said:

Bavarian Open entries are up. In addition to Aurora in senior ladies, we have a bunch of others
- Conrad Orzel in Sr men
- Lajoie/Lagha and Fabbri/Ayer in Jr dance
- Wesley Chiu in Ad. novice boys (the novice champ)
- Kagolovskaya/MacDonald and Kam/Carter in ad. novice dance (the novice gold+silver teams)
- Several girls in ad. novice: Melaurie Boivin, Vienna Hardwood, Dorelia Lugo-Mayrand, Melody Zhu, Kaia Ruiter

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Skate Canada taking advantage of bulk hotel/travel rates.

Happy for Conrad to get something else. He was really beating himself up after the free skate at Nationals.

Colonel Green said:

Skate Canada taking advantage of bulk hotel/travel rates.

Happy for Conrad to get something else. He was really beating himself up after the free skate at Nationals.

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I’m so happy Conrad is getting BO. I hope they swap him as Alt for Worlds over Nic. I love Nic, but Conrad was better at Nationals.

If I had $$$, I'd go to Bavarian Open in a heartbeat...Would love to see Lajoie/Lagha, Conrad, Aurora, Ayer/Fabbri, ugh why do I have to sleep, eat & commute?!

SnowWhite said:

- Lajoie/Lagha and Fabbri/Ayer in Jr dance

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Good to see. F/A needs the comp experience, especially two clean skates at an international competition to build confidence. L/L need to hit their levels to have a decent shot for Top 2 at WJC. If L/L place 1 to 3 at WJC, F/A will need to place 12 to 10 respectively to get three spots for next year.

The qualification for Worlds requires a TES of 29 in the SP. Is it a minimum for FS too?

Sabrina said:

The qualification for Worlds requires a TES of 29 in the SP. Is it a minimum for FS too?

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assuming you're referring to senior ladies, the FS TES min is 49

Here are some of the Canadian skaters who supported yesterday's Bell Let's Talk Day, an initiative to open up the conversation and raise awareness on mental health on social media. There's also a link in Gabby's post to her interview on CTV news:

Gabby: https://www.instagram.com/p/BtSLHWfjwMk/
Larkyn: https://www.instagram.com/p/BtPtfntl116/
Trennt: https://www.instagram.com/p/BtQterbnhhO/
Kaetlyn: https://www.instagram.com/p/BtQyUXshscF/

The topic of Romsky's 18th vlog is Nationals (and a few other skaters make guest appearances): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j4NbUM934mM

Alaine was totally out of her league today. She is lucky to have made the free skate (there are only 22 skaters so it was a guarantee). I was a little bit too confident about her abilities. Unlucky for Larkyn, but if she can't get a TES of 29 in more than 6 tries over 2 years, it may not be a good idea to send her to worlds to begin with.

bobbob said:

Alaine was totally out of her league today. She is lucky to have made the free skate (there are only 22 skaters so it was a guarantee). I was a little bit too confident about her abilities. Unlucky for Larkyn, but if she can't get a TES of 29 in more than 6 tries over 2 years, it may not be a good idea to send her to worlds to begin with.

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Has the 4CC SP already happened?