If there were Winter Olympics in 1996, 2000...

Giver · Aug 20, 2018

Who would've won gold medals in figure skating if after Alberville-92 Olympics next Games would've been in 1996, 2000, 2004 and so on? Probably it was discussed before but I can't find it

My guesses:
Men
1996 - Elvis Stojko
2000 - Alexei Yagudin
2004 - Evgeni Pluschenko
2008 - ??? (men's field was exceptionally even)
2012 - Patrick Chan
2016 - Yuzuru Hanyu

Ladies:
1996 - Michelle Kwan
2000 - Michelle Kwan
2004 - Sasha Cohen
2008 - Mao Asada
2012 - Yuna Kim
2016 - Evgenia Medvedeva

Pairs:
1996 - Wotzel/Steuer
2000 - Xue/Hongbo
2004 - Totmianina/Marinin
2008 - Savchenko/Szolkowy
2012 - Volosozhar/Trankov
2016 - Duhamel/Redford

Ice Dance:
1996 - Grishuk/Platov
2000 - Anisina/Peizerat
2004 - Navka/Kostomarov
2008 - ???
2012 - Virtue/Moir
2016 - Papadakis/Cizeron

StephenGfan · Aug 20, 2018

2008 seemed like a major transition year for the men's and ice dance field.

Alex D · Aug 20, 2018

I am thinking that Slutskaya, would have had a good shot in 2000. Without 9/11, things could have gone a different way. I agree though 1996, would have been Michelles year, did she even lose a skate that season? I believe she was unbeaten, but memory might be wrong.

Colonel Green · Aug 20, 2018

In a world where the Olympic cycle didn’t shift, the arc of people’s careers would also have been different. So, for instance, the 1996 events would not just have featured the participants in the actual 1995-96 season, but also people who in our world retired after Lillehammer. So you’d have people like Baiul probably still in the game in ladies.

It’s also unknowable how, if at all, the shift would have affected the participants. 1995-96 was Elvis’ worst season in his prime period (roughly 1993-1998). He’d certainly have been a contender for gold in 1996, but would he have fared better than he did in the same period in real life?

yume · Aug 20, 2018

How Kim would have won in 2012 and not Kostner?

chopinskate · Aug 20, 2018

yume said:
How Kim would have won in 2012 and not Kostner?

I think it's an alternate universe. So having lost to Asada in 2008, Kim would have worked hard over the quad to win at 2012 (without bowing out of most competitions after 2010, like she did IRL). Of course, we don't know how motivated Asada would or wouldn't have been for a repeat, or what Kostner would have done.

Colonel Green · Aug 20, 2018

yume said:
How Kim would have won in 2012 and not Kostner?

Kim sat out the 2011-12 season in the real world. If it had been an Olympic season she obviously would not have done so.

Which doesn’t mean she would have won, of course, but Kostner didn’t beat Kim in 2012.

4everchan · Aug 20, 2018

so many ifs... skaters who may have not risen that quickly also... what about 2016 dance... let's say that the French don't rise up so fast in 2015 because of the wait for your turn deal.. Weapo for Olympic gold !!! Woot!!!!!!

so many things are factors here... if there are games every two years.. fine... but of course, V/M would not have retired so young and would have gone for 2012 and 2016... if the games were every 4 years...

I can see Patrick winning in 2012.... and also not retiring... keeping up with the field... but then for sure not taking part in 2020...

in any case, that's why some athletes are celebrated for their multiple world titles and longevity. Olympics are not for everyone and too many IFs and What IFs are needed to win them...

...

SamuraiKike · Aug 20, 2018

Giver said:
Who would've won gold medals in figure skating if after Alberville-92 Olympics next Games would've been in 1996, 2000, 2004 and so on? Probably it was discussed before but I can't find it

My guesses:
Men
1996 - Elvis Stojko
2000 - Alexei Yagudin
2004 - Evgeni Pluschenko
2008 - ??? (men's field was exceptionally even)
2012 - Patrick Chan
2016 - Yuzuru Hanyu

Ladies:
1996 - Michelle Kwan
2000 - Michelle Kwan
2004 - Sasha Cohen
2008 - Mao Asada
2012 - Yuna Kim
2016 - Evgenia Medvedeva

Pairs:
1996 - Wotzel/Steuer
2000 - Xue/Hongbo
2004 - Totmianina/Marinin
2008 - Savchenko/Szolkowy
2012 - Volosozhar/Trankov
2016 - Duhamel/Redford

Ice Dance:
1996 - Grishuk/Platov
2000 - Anisina/Peizerat
2004 - Navka/Kostomarov
2008 - ???
2012 - Virtue/Moir
2016 - Papadakis/Cizeron

I agree with most of your predictions except for these

Ladies 2004: Sasha was always a headcase so no matter which year she would have still messed the LP due to nerves. So ... Shizuka upsetting again?
Pairs 2000: Since we are doing what if's then Berezhnaya/Sikharulidze would have been able to compete and clearly they were still at their peak then.
Pairs 2004: Shen Zhao lost the 2004 world title due to mistakes on the SP but I would still put them as the big faves that year.
Pairs 2012: Savchenko/Szolkowy had their magnificent Pina program. It would have been very close.

SamuraiKike · Aug 20, 2018

StephenGfan said:
2008 seemed like a major transition year for the men's and ice dance field.

Yep but in alternate olympic cycles would it have been the same???. In Dance I bet Denkova/Staviski and Dubreuil/Lauzon would have stayed one more year making them medal contenders for the alterantive 2008 OGM.

Colonel Green · Aug 20, 2018

4everchan said:
so many ifs... skaters who may have not risen that quickly also... what about 2016 dance... let's say that the French don't rise up so fast in 2015 because of the wait for your turn deal.. Weapo for Olympic gold !!! Woot!!!!!!

In an AU where there’s no 2010 Olympics and Virtue/Moir win in 2012, Davis/White would most likely have gone another two years to 2016.

Scott and Tessa would have done 2008 (where they’d have been medal contenders, though more likely for bronze) and 2012 in this universe, so I don’t know if they also go to 2016 or pack it in satisfied after two Olympics.

narcissa · Aug 20, 2018

This is almost impossible to say because everyone would be working to peak at different times, and some coaches might even have taken completely different students based on their birthdays. For example 2016 OGM could have legit been Yulia Lipnitskaya if she had not taken those protein shakes to delay her puberty and instead developed in a way that aimed to peak at a healthy post-puberty age of 18. Etc.

blue_idealist · Aug 20, 2018

2008 men is really tough. It could have been Buttle, Joubert, Lysacek, Weir, Lambiel or Takahashi. I'm leaning towards Joubert, but I do remember that he generally didn't skate well at the Olympics. The other alternative is that Plushenko might have stayed in competition or came back to skate in 2008 and won.

I'm guessing that for dance in the same year, Denkova/Staviski would have stayed in and won the title (if his drunk driving incident hadn't gotten in the way - I can't remember if the ISU suspended him or not). If not them, then Del/Schoen, Belbin/Agosto or Dom/Shab.

rachno2 · Aug 20, 2018

Pairs 2012 is interesting to think about. V/T were still really new (though I imagine that they would have teamed up earlier in this alternate timeline) and S/S won worlds that year with their fab Pina program, so Aljona might have gotten her Olympic gold then. You also can’t count out Pang/Tong, Duhamel/Redford, or my sentimental favorites Kavaguti and Smirnov (who medaled at GPF that season). If the worlds results held up, Japan would have an Olympic medal in pairs!

yume · Aug 20, 2018

I love that Asada win in 2008.

SamuraiKike · Aug 20, 2018

blue_idealist said:
2008 men is really tough. It could have been Buttle, Joubert, Lysacek, Weir, Lambiel or Takahashi. I'm leaning towards Joubert, but I do remember that he generally didn't skate well at the Olympics. The other alternative is that Plushenko might have stayed in competition or came back to skate in 2008 and won.

I'm guessing that for dance in the same year, Denkova/Staviski would have stayed in and won the title (if his drunk driving incident hadn't gotten in the way - I can't remember if the ISU suspended him or not). If not them, then Del/Schoen, Belbin/Agosto or Dom/Shab.

I think the scenario of Plushenko staying or coming back for his 2nd OGM title in 2008 is the best bet. Takahashi was the leading man that season but I think olympic pressure would have took the best of him IMO just like it happened at 2008 worlds. Joubert had the scoring potential but was always a mess at the olys. Lysacek didn't reach rock solid status until 2009. Lambiel was already on decline and Buttle even more inconsistent then all the already mentioned.

Castiel · Aug 20, 2018

Giver said:
2016 - Yuzuru Hanyu

Come on! Javi!

nocturnalis · Aug 20, 2018

StephenGfan said:
2008 seemed like a major transition year for the men's and ice dance field.

If Tessa didn't make that twizzle mistake in the OD, they probably would have won World's that year, despite the fact that she was skating like struggle because of her shins

drivingmissdaisy · Aug 20, 2018

The 1996 Games would have been interesting. You'd have to think that both Harding and Kerrigan would have at least given it a shot, as well as Sato and maybe even Ito. It might have been hard for Kwan to emerge in that field, especially since she wouldn't have made the 1994 World team (likely Kerrigan and Harding) and possibly the 1995 World team (maybe Kerrigan, Harding, and Bobek), depriving Michelle of exposure in front of big event judges. Lu Chen was also still in very good form in 1996, but Bonaly had declined and Baiul probably wouldn't have been a factor by then.

blue_idealist · Aug 20, 2018

drivingmissdaisy said:
The 1996 Games would have been interesting. You'd have to think that both Harding and Kerrigan would have at least given it a shot, as well as Sato and maybe even Ito. It might have been hard for Kwan to emerge in that field, especially since she wouldn't have made the 1994 World team (likely Kerrigan and Harding) and possibly the 1995 World team (maybe Kerrigan, Harding, and Bobek), depriving Michelle of exposure in front of big event judges. Lu Chen was also still in very good form in 1996, but Bonaly had declined and Baiul probably wouldn't have been a factor by then.

Yeah, I think Ito would have at least went, because she even came back for the 1996 Worlds in reality.

If there were Winter Olympics in 1996, 2000...

Giver

StephenGfan

Alex D

Colonel Green

yume

🍉

chopinskate

Colonel Green

4everchan

SamuraiKike

SamuraiKike

Colonel Green

narcissa

blue_idealist

rachno2

yume

🍉

SamuraiKike

Castiel

nocturnalis

drivingmissdaisy

blue_idealist

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