2019-20 U.S. Men's Figure Skating

[FishOutOfWater]

What I noticed when I first started paying attention to the qualifying competitions:

To move on from regionals to sectionals at most levels, ladies have to be more or less in the top 5% of their field nationally -- some regions are much deeper than others, so there are skaters who get left home in deep regions while weaker skaters may get the opportunity to say they competed at sectionals just because they had a good day for their level at a regionals with a smaller field. In the deep regions, even getting from initial rounds to final rounds at the lower levels is an impressive accomplishment.

At sectionals, even with byes at junior and senior level, there are usually more than enough girls competing who are capable of keeping up with each other, and some solid skaters will not make the cut

For boys at all levels, qualifying rounds are not an issue. Sometimes fields are small enough that a skater only needs to finish in the top 50% to move on. In some regions at some levels, just signing up for the qualifying season is enough to qualify for sectionals automatically because there are four or fewer boys competing at that level in the whole region.

Some years at some levels the sectional men's competitions might be strong with more than 4 skaters worthy of moving on depending who skates best on the day. Other years there are only one or two strong skaters and the next few qualify as the "best of the rest" but girls of similar skill level would never have made it to sectionals in the first place, sometimes not even to final round in their region.

And sometimes there are so few junior or senior men in a section that everyone qualified automatically.

Yes, the average boys at a given level are more likely to be able to rotate difficult jumps than the average girls at the same level. But the quality of other skills is often weaker.


As an example, imagine a brother and sister who have similar overall average skill levels. When the boy has a good day at regionals, he moves on to sectionals. If he's really lucky, he might get farther than that.

If the girl has a good day at regionals, she qualifies for the final round but probably doesn't advance beyond that. There are too many other girls who are just as good as her or better.

It's all about the numbers.

However, because the above-average boys usually get to advance and have more opportunities to qualify for Nationals and for international assignments, if they get that far they have more incentives and more rewards to keep improving. Even more so for the really talented ones.

Whereas some really talented girls might have the bad luck never to make it past sectionals for various reasons, let alone get assigned to JGP or other internationals.

This is absolutely correct, speaking as a female skater who competed at the same time as my brother. I was not what Ii'd call highly talented but had more natural talent than my brother. One year, we both skated our absolute best in the first round at regionals. I made it to final round at the novice level, while my brother qualified for juvenile nationals by finishing 4th out of 8 or so skaters. That year I had a solid double axel, he had an iffy and often cheated double loop. I'm proud of him now, but as a young teenager I was a little salty about the whole thing.

 

[skatenewbie]

Has anyone seen Vincent skate recently? He had such a great season in 2018 and I worry he could be knocked off the team by Tomoki. I still find Nathan to be a lock but, we do have some strong skaters this year.

Seeing how Tomoki skate in the GP i dont think it will happen. But If Vincent form dropped a lot because of lack training etc it might open 3rd spot open and few men could be contenders like Alexei, Tomoki, and Camden.

 

[oly2018]

I still wouldn't be surprised if Vincent skipped the whole season. If he didn't have time to prepare for the GPs because of exams, he won't have time to prepare for worlds either. We haven't heard from him since his initial announcement, so we won't know anything unless he confirms he is taking time off of school next semester.

I don't think Tomoki or Camden are worlds ready though.

 

[mrrice]

I still wouldn't be surprised if Vincent skipped the whole season. If he didn't have time to prepare for the GPs because of exams, he won't have time to prepare for worlds either. We haven't heard from him since his initial announcement, so we won't know anything unless he confirms he is taking time off of school next semester.

I don't think Tomoki or Camden are worlds ready though.

Neither do I. I'm hoping that Alexei K can bring it at Nationals and grab that 3rd spot. We'll just have to wait and see.

 

[carriecmu0503]

I still wouldn't be surprised if Vincent skipped the whole season. If he didn't have time to prepare for the GPs because of exams, he won't have time to prepare for worlds either. We haven't heard from him since his initial announcement, so we won't know anything unless he confirms he is taking time off of school next semester.

I don't think Tomoki or Camden are worlds ready though.

Vincent’s announced intent all along was to attend school in the fall only. He had to attend for one semester to reserve his spot. He does not intend to go back after the fall semester until after the Olympics.

 

[Greengemmonster]

I really hope Vincent can pick up from where he left off after this term. He was in such an excellent place end of last season. Those quad lutzes with the rippon were beautiful even if I yelled at the TV while he did them (something along the lines of "tuck your arms in boy, don't tempt fate").

I'm super excited to see him work with Mie Hamada!

 

[starla16]

I wonder what Jason thinks of his Japan curse skating all these years
does it impact his mentality when he skate there knowing he will fall multiple times ?

 

[1111bm]

I wonder what Jason thinks of his Japan curse skating all these years
does it impact his mentality when he skate there knowing he will fall multiple times ?

Isn't that pretty much what that 'curse' is, at least partly? Not a complete inability to skate in Japan because of added nerves/excitement, but an anticipation of failure which becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

 

[Ice Dance]

Perhaps Jason thinks second in the World in the SP in Japan was pretty amazing. And perhaps he would just like to have a more solid free skate when opportunity arrives. The fact is that he is far from the only guy on the GP this season that had an opportunity of making the Final who ultimately lost said opportunity to Jin. There were nine names on a poll on FSU of guys with more points in their opening event than Jin, and yet Messing, Nguyen, Kvitelashvili, Tanaka, & Pulkinen did not get the job done either. Nor did Rizzo, whom people were proclaiming had a great shot after Kolyada pulled out of his events. Or Ignatov who skated well only a week ago. Or Cha, Brezina, or Voronov who all made it to the Final last season. Really, I do think we are assigning a wee bit too much credit to Japan and a wee bit too little to the fact that it is really hard to skate your best with a great opportunity on the line. (Which is always the case at NHK because it is last).

 

[evasorange]

Is Jason still dealing with the aftermath of his concussion? I can’t remember the last time I saw him have so many messy falls. Was really hoping to see him in the gpf

 

[fzztsimmons]

I don't think (read: hoping) it's his concussion - I just really really think nerves got to him. He historically doesn't skate well under pressure (see 2019 Worlds where he fell apart in the free after placing 2nd in the short) and he had to have been aware that if he skated relatively clean at NHK he'd be going to the GPF. He looked incredibly nervous before the short which is quite unusual for Jason, he usually excels there and struggles with the free. I also think by Tracy's expressions at the boards, she was really surprised by the falls. They were quite odd falls as well - I think he was too much in his head and overthinking things.
I'm gutted he's not going to be at GPF, but he'll be at Golden Spin in 2 weeks, I hope the reduced pressure which result in two clean programmes and also help build his confidence back up ready for Nationals!

 

[Tavi...]

It’s not quite true that he never skates well under pressure. He used to be very consistent and was known to deliver in high pressure situations. For example, at 2015 and 2017 Worlds, it was crucial for him (and his teammates) to skate well for the US to maintain/ gain 3 World / Olympic spots, and he delivered brilliantly. He has also won JGPF, medaled twice at JW, won a place on the 2014 Olympic Team, and won Nats in 2015 despite intense competition from Josh and Adam. He has a lot of GP and senior B medals. His problems at 2016 NHK were injury related.

Although like most guys he struggled occasionally, his problems in high pressure situations really began in the previous Olympic year culminating in his underperformance at 2017 NHK (GPF on the line) and his meltdown at 2018 Nats.

 

[starla16]

all his meltdown are in Japan , like a self prophetic curse.
Can a federation refuse an invitation and ask to be switched to another GP event ?

Like say they refuse next year for him to go to NHK 2020 but ask to be switched to TEB

 

[Tavi...]

all his meltdown are in Japan , like a self prophetic curse.
Can a federation refuse an invitation and ask to be switched to another GP event ?

Like say they refuse next year for him to go to NHK 2020 but ask to be switched to TEB

Actually, all of his meltdowns have not been in Japan. He had a spectacular meltdown at US Nationals in 2018. Regarding invitations to perform at GP events, I don’t know for sure how the process works, but because of his Worlds placement, he was guaranteed two spots. I believe skaters are asked to indicate their preferences, and Jason loves Japan and has a lot of fans there. So Japan may have made the offer based on his preference and the fact that his coaching team had two other skaters there. If the US (or his coaching team) didn’t want him to compete at NHK because he has struggled there, I would guess that would have been discussed before he was ever assigned there, and he would have gotten a different assignment. But that’s just my guess.

Personally I hope next year he competes elsewhere and just takes a vacation in Japan.

 

[Makemi]

Dear me I managed to jinx everyone after my earlier "mid-season" post. (Sorry!) It seems nobody performed as well in their second as their first (though I guess most of the other men also under-performed in their 2nd GP).

Gutted for Jason. The falls looked really uncharacteristic and he looked so nervous before both programs. I don't necessarily think the problem is that he's got a mental block with Japan (he did extremely well in the SP at Worlds after all). I think the thought of making the GPF was (again) on his mind. And really there were quite a few men this season who had a legitimate shot at the GPF and weren't able to take advantage of their chances so it's not like it was limited to Jason. It really came down to the wire there with Sergei, though, I was really squeezing. Anyway hoping for better things at Golden Spin.

(And Tomoki, what happened to your axel???)

Speaking of Golden Spin, we'll get another look at Alex and Camden too. (Tomoki is listed as a sub, so I guess he won't get another comp before Nationals). Onward and upward guys!

 

[TontoK]

Neither do I. I'm hoping that Alexei K can bring it at Nationals and grab that 3rd spot. We'll just have to wait and see.

The third spot? I'm thinking there are two spots on the line.

Who knows what Vincent is doing? This break from competition might be the best thing in the world for him, or it might be a disaster.

We're talking about Jason as though NHK was a fluke. I'm not so sure. Something is off, and it might be health related as many have stated, but really he hasn't really lived up to promise in quite a while. Yeah, a medal at SkAm, but let's not pretend that was a great competition.

I had such hopes for Tomoki last season. Not so much now.

I was so impressed with Camden in Canada...

I'm a fan of Alex's, but he struggles with the same consistency issues as everyone else. Flashes of greatness, then... blah.

I'm not sure anyone other than Nathan is a favorite for the podium. Throw Torgeshev into the mix, and two of the World Team could be drawn from a hat of six names or so... and still have as good a chance of being correct as any sort of analytical prediction.

None of these guys has padded the "body of work" resume this year. It's "game on" and a test to see who will pull it together in the run-up to Nationals, and who hold their nerve when they get there.

 

[Ice Dance]

None of these guys has padded the "body of work" resume this year.

You see a lot of U.S. guys in the body of work category that can outrank a World bronze medal, 4CC bronze, and silver from last year's Nationals based on a higher placement at this year's Nationals? Tomoki has a Junior World gold from last season. I could see that combined with a higher placement at Nationals being worthy of a discussion, maybe. Jason has a GP silver, a tenth place finish from Worlds, a 5th from 4CCs, and a 3rd from last year's Nationals. So again . . . worthy of a discussion.

But Vincent's body of work argument is a pretty big one. World bronze has not always been enough to make the U.S. Team. But there are three berths. None of the guys besides Nathan made the Final. None of the junior guys made the JGPF. Vincent would have to be a pretty huge disaster. (I mean, we already have examples of Krasnozhon, Hiwatashi, Pulkinen, and Torgashev being capable of this from this season. When comparing huge disaster potential+World bronze medal with huge disaster potential+not much, huge-disaster potential+World bronze medal is a fairly padded body of work).

I feel a little odd writing this because I do always think that last-year's record can be overturned. And these are the men so great movement is always possible. I just feel it is important to acknowledge that in this case Vincent has a major credential currently at play in his body of work, and the field did not exactly step up on the GP to make much of an argument. I do think we should head into Nationals keeping that in mind.

 

[sheetz]

A healthy Vincent should still have no problem making top 3 at Nats. His problems are usually injuries and attempting layouts that are too difficult for him. But hopefully his extended layoff has convinced him that trying to out jump Nathan is not realistic and that two clean, watered-down programs should still get him top 3 at least.

 

[snowflake]

I’m pretty sure the national team in Montreal will be the same as at last season’s worlds. Vincent will be good at nationals. Right to focus on school and training, not wasting time on traveling and competing. I had hopes that Tomoki would challenge Vincent and/or Jason but I don’t think so right now. The other 'new’ seniors also struggling. Would be awesome if one or two of them get it together at US nationals.

 

[ice coverage]

Today the official list of competitors at 2020 Nats was published by USFS.

The link below is from the USFS home page:

https://www.usfigureskating.org/con... Figure Skating Championships Competitors.pdf​

The nineteen men below are listed for Junior Men. The list includes Nicholas Hsieh, who placed fifth in Junior Men at Eastern Sectionals. (Eastern's top four junior men also are on the list.)

1. Lucas Altieri
2. Goku Endo
3. Chase Finster
4. Nicholas Hsieh
5. Joseph Kang
6. Liam Kapeikis
7. Joseph Klein
8. Kai Kovar
9. Seth Kurogi
10. Ilia Malinin
11. Daniel Martynov
12. Samuel Mindra
13. Maxim Naumov
14. Matthew Nielsen
15. Jacob Sanchez
16. David Shapiro
17. Eric Sjoberg
18. Daniel Turchin
19. Robert Yampolsky