Can Yuzuru Hanyu "three-peat" for Olympic Gold?

[Holy Headband]

He totally can, but unless he saves the 4A for Worlds and goes with a more strategic layout at the Olympics, I think the outcome will depend on how Nathan Chen does. Chen has looked beatable this season, so I have this feeling he may falter in Beijing, but it will be a huge mess of a competition if Hanyu's TES is weighed down by a downgraded 4A and Chen makes mistakes. I don't have the confidence to make a prediction, but anything can happen.

If Hanyu substituted a different opening quad and fiddled with his layout a little bit (by adding that 3A-3Lo combo for example), I'd peg him as the slight favourite for gold. As it is, I think that's Chen at the moment--but let's see what happens at US Nationals first.

 

[Tahuu]

Chen and Hanyu's head-to-head stats since last Olympics. Chen crushed Hanyu by double digits.

2021 WTT

2021 Worlds

2019 GPF

2019 Worlds

SP

FS

Comp

SP

FS

Comp

SP

FS

Comp

SP

FS

Comp

Chen

109.65​

203.24​

312.89​

98.85​

222.03​

320.88​

110.38​

224.92​

335.30​

107.40​

216.02​

323.42​

Hanyu

107.12​

193.76​

300.88​

106.98​

182.20​

289.18​

97.43​

194.00​

291.43​

94.87​

206.10​

300.97​

∆

12.01​

31.70​

43.87​

22.45​

 

[daffygirl]

Let’s see how Nathan performs at nationals. Yes he did lose at Skate America, but at least now this relieves the pressure of going into the Olympics undefeated. I think people forget that a lot of his early season performances weren’t great by his standards over the last quad. Some of his GP wins were more about others underperforming even more than he did versus him skating his best. Vincent happened to be in the best form he’s ever been in at Skate America and Nathan botched his short program. I actually think that even if Nathan had performed at his typical early season ability in both programs, that Vincent still might’ve won. Or Nathan might have won but it would’ve been by a much smaller margin than usual. Nathan has always peaked later in the season.

 

[mrrice]

Very unlikely. If someone wins and it's not Nathan or Yuzuru, it will probably be Kagiyama.
Uno is not usually clean and doubles triples in combinations.
Vincent under-rotates and if Shin Amano is there...

I must say that I was completely shocked at how well Vincent skated at skam. He is full of confidence right now and he could really be a factor at the games. US Nationals will be thrilling and may the best man win.

 

[jenaj]

He totally can, but unless he saves the 4A for Worlds and goes with a more strategic layout at the Olympics, I think the outcome will depend on how Nathan Chen does. Chen has looked beatable this season, so I have this feeling he may falter in Beijing, but it will be a huge mess of a competition if Hanyu's TES is weighed down by a downgraded 4A and Chen makes mistakes. I don't have the confidence to make a prediction, but anything can happen.

If Hanyu substituted a different opening quad and fiddled with his layout a little bit (by adding that 3A-3Lo combo for example), I'd peg him as the slight favourite for gold. As it is, I think that's Chen at the moment--but let's see what happens at US Nationals first.

Hanyu would have to skate clean and Nathan would have to make mistakes. It's kind of like predicting who would win the ladies competition in 2018. Alina had higher TES than Evgenia and once her PCS rose to about the same level, it was a safe prediction that she would win if she skated clean. The same is true of Nathan. Only Nathan can beat Nathan.

 

[TallyT]

I wasn't going to do this – I just dropped back in to see how Mikhail, Yuzu, Shoma and the Canadian boys were going to do – but I have to say it or combust.

Yes, Yuzuru Hanyu can three-peat and/or get his Olympic 4A.
Yes, Nathan Chen can get the first singles OGM for his country since 2010.
Yes, Shoma Uno can move that one step up from silver.
And yes, the next-ranked 3-4 or more can pull an upset. This is the Olympics, after all, and all bets are off. Because can is a very different beast from will, as 2010, 2014 and 2018 proved.

However, can we take a minute to reflect on just how amazing the fact that there is a discussion on this at all is? When Yuzuru -

- is 28 (even if he still looks 19), in a sport increasingly canted to the far younger, and has been lambasted as past it and snottily advised by couch potato critics to give it up ever since the PC gala (if not before);

- has always had to deal with uncertain health and injury and since PC with a level (and the resultant training shortfalls) that would send most people in lesser fields screaming for early retirement;

- has, even if their fans deny it, been up against officialdom's preferreds who were/are still from more powerful countries/prefectures most of his career;

- has been half a world away from his coaches since the pandemic took hold;

- couldn't set foot on competitive ice for eight months before Christmas Eve;

- knows he will be dealing in Beijing with the sort of pressure, attention and expectation - and yes, ill will from some quarters - that even the Russian girls can't match (ps - to be fair, there's a good chance the all-Chinese audience will be very much on his side, he is popular there)

That he is one of the most serious contenders for gold, as well as his beloved 4A, should be a cause for sincere congrats, and can only do the sport's public profile so much good.

I'll stop now, that's all I'm going to say.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

I wasn't going to do this – I just dropped back in to see how Mikhail, Yuzu, Shoma and the Canadian boys were going to do – but I have to say it or combust.

Yes, Yuzuru Hanyu can three-peat and/or get his Olympic 4A.
Yes, Nathan Chen can get the first singles OGM for his country since 2010.
Yes, Shoma Uno can move that one step up from silver.
And yes, the next-ranked 3-4 or more can pull an upset. This is the Olympics, after all, and all bets are off. Because can is a very different beast from will, as 2010, 2014 and 2018 proved.

However, can we take a minute to reflect on just how amazing the fact that there is a discussion on this at all is? When Yuzuru -

- is 28 (even if he still looks 19), in a sport increasingly canted to the far younger, and has been lambasted as past it and snottily advised by couch potato critics to give it up ever since the PC gala (if not before);

- has always had to deal with uncertain health and injury and since PC with a level (and the resultant training shortfalls) that would send most people in lesser fields screaming for early retirement;

- has, even if their fans deny it, been up against officialdom's preferreds who were/are still from more powerful countries/prefectures most of his career;

- has been half a world away from his coaches since the pandemic took hold;

- couldn't set foot on competitive ice for eight months before Christmas Eve;

- knows he will be dealing in Beijing with the sort of pressure, attention and expectation - and yes, ill will from some quarters - that even the Russian girls can't match (ps - to be fair, there's a good chance the all-Chinese audience will be very much on his side, he is popular there)

That he is one of the most serious contenders for gold, as well as his beloved 4A, should be a cause for sincere congrats, and can only do the sport's public profile so much good.

I'll stop now, that's all I'm going to say.

Agreed with most of this except the officialdom narrative. I know that’s typically said as a failsafe - if he loses it’s because the ISU was always against him, if he wins it’s in spite of the ISU being always against him. But like Chen, Chan, Kolyada, Fernandez, etc. Hanyu has been given loads of top-tier-skater carrots. He got 95.58 PCS at 2015 Nationals with two falls - if that scoring happened to any of his competitors in Nationals or otherwise I’m sure the outcry or snarky remarks from certain people would be deafening.

He and Chen go into this Olympics with a huge advantage of being putative favourites. I don’t think their FS performances yet merit the marks they’ve been getting but like other competitions I guess we will have to wait for their head to head in a non Nationals environment, ie the Olympics, to see their relative scoring this year.

Also while he has had his share of injuries, it’s not like other skaters haven’t had to face injuries and hardships of their own that could have sent them into early retirement but still stuck around or competed. It’s just those skaters don’t happen to have a fanbase where if there is so much as step out of a jump which they normally land, there isn’t some kneejerk reaction questioning their state of health. Didn’t see a lot of “Chen must be injured!” after losing Skate America and underperforming there.

What Hanyu is doing IS remarkable and IMO it is diminished by the typical “ISU favouring his opponents” or “not yet recovered from recent injury” narratives that lower expectations and are used as a means of superhumanizing him when he wins or as a failsafe narrative when he loses — while trivializing achievements and adversities faced by his competitors. I can’t think of any skater other than maybe Plushenko who has benefitted from narratives which rather blatantly pre-excuse losses/poor performances or post-aggrandize good performances. Let the guy perform and if he wins or loses people should graciously accept it as the circumstances of competition - Hanyu himself sure does.

 

[Sweet Dream]

I think many things are in favor of Yuzuru this time. First, the time difference between Japan and China is very small, so that he can calmly prepare for the Games at home. Secondly, he will be madly supported by Chinese fans, although we don't know if any spectators would be allowed into the arena. Lastly, as a two-time Olympic champion, he has some completely different mindset from his leading rivals that can definitely help him a lot at such big event. In a much relaxed way he will be there more to show than to compete, I guess. Still, staying injury-free will be the key to his 3rd Olympic journey.

Honestly I do not like his killing 4A at all!

 

[4everchan]

I think many things are in favor of Yuzuru this time. First, the time difference between Japan and China is very small, so that he can calmly prepare for the Games at home. Secondly, he will be madly supported by Chinese fans, although we don't know if any spectators would be allowed into the arena. Lastly, as a two-time Olympic champion, he has some completely different mindset from his leading rivals that can definitely help him a lot at such big event. In a much relaxed way he will be there more to show than to compete, I guess. Still, staying injury-free will be the key to his 3rd Olympic journey.

Honestly I do not like his killing 4A at all!

I am not sure some of these arguments are that strong...

1) everyone will have to quarantine for like 3 weeks in China... so pretty much, the time difference is no longer much of a factor... it will be mostly on who is able to deal best with the conditions imposed by the covid measures in place.

2) I know Yuzuru is popular in China, I mean, he is popular all over the world but two things here to consider : this time, Japanese fans who travel and follow him from event to event will not be allowed in China. Also, one would think that Nathan Chen and Vincent Zhou would also get support, with their family background. Boyang will also get support. I would think that Shoma is also probably well known enough by Chinese fans (if they are allowed in)... So personally, and I may be wrong with that idea, but I do think that in most events, Yuzuru gets a fan support advantage, but not as much this time, with the current circumstances.

3) Staying injury free is key... so he probably should put the 4A to rest for a while no ? To me, that means that his mindset is actually not about winning but landing that jump at the Olympics... and what if he did??? Would he then lose his focus? Or what if he doesn't? Or what if he thinks he is not going with an ultra-competitive mindset because he has nothing to prove anymore... but then, BANG, the Olympics pressure cooker hits?

I have no idea what his mindset is... But what I can tell is that focusing on an element doesn't sound good to me if the overall goal is winning. And if the overall goal is not really to win it, then that's not really the key to success... Yuzuru is an extremely competitive individual. He has been capable of greatness under pressure but he has had quite the lows as well. I am not sure he is that much used to skate without much pressure or stress... in front of the entire world on top of that? I don't know i can agree with much of the arguments presented above.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

I think many things are in favor of Yuzuru this time. First, the time difference between Japan and China is very small, so that he can calmly prepare for the Games at home. Secondly, he will be madly supported by Chinese fans, although we don't know if any spectators would be allowed into the arena. Lastly, as a two-time Olympic champion, he has some completely different mindset from his leading rivals that can definitely help him a lot at such big event. In a much relaxed way he will be there more to show than to compete, I guess. Still, staying injury-free will be the key to his 3rd Olympic journey.

Honestly I do not like his killing 4A at all!

Rostelecom 2017 Seimei girl, where you at?

 

[Sweet Dream]

I am not sure some of these arguments are that strong...

1) everyone will have to quarantine for like 3 weeks in China...

I do not have much time to argue with you, but I do think he is mentally a very strong competitor as well as a fearless fighter, and he will have a better chance of winning his 3rd OGM in China.

I don't think he will be kept in quarantine for 3 weeks if his COVID-19 test upon arrival is negative. Are you misreading something?

 

[4everchan]

I do not have much time to argue with you, but I do think he is mentally a very strong competitor as well as a fearless fighter, and he will have a better chance of winning his 3rd OGM in China.

I don't think he will be kept in quarantine for 3 weeks if his COVID-19 test upon arrival is negative. Are you misreading something?

perhaps i did : i was referring to what NHL players said about being in quarantine for 3 weeks. Maybe that's not accurate. But here is the deal : the games are still weeks away and restrictions can change. For now spectators are still allowed in the venues but no shouting, just clapping...not sure that any skater will feel a huge support from that.

 

[Charlotte 71]

After his skate at Japanese Nationals, do you think Yuzu will win his third Olympic gold? Will three time World Champion Nathan Chen win gold instead?

Or do you think another skater can stop the "three peat" and win gold?

I am not saying, as I haven't made up my mind yet What do you think?

There is no good answer here because I want Nathan to win his gold just as much as I want Yuzu to win his third, and they can't both have it. I don't think I've felt this conflicted since the Battle of the Brians. Or maybe since Yugudin vs. Plushenko. Or Medvedeva vs. Zagitova. Well, okay, I guess I'm ALWAYS this conflicted at Olympic-time. But both of these men are so incredibly special and it would be a travesty for Nathan to never win Olympic gold, but just as much a travesty for Yuzu to not win a third and solidify his GOAThood for all time. If I have to have a hunch for what will actually happen, I'm leaning Nathan.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

There is no good answer here because I want Nathan to win his gold just as much as I want Yuzu to win his third, and they can't both have it. I don't think I've felt this conflicted since the Battle of the Brians. Or maybe since Yugudin vs. Plushenko. Or Medvedeva vs. Zagitova. Well, okay, I guess I'm ALWAYS this conflicted at Olympic-time. But both of these men are so incredibly special and it would be a travesty for Nathan to never win Olympic gold, but just as much a travesty for Yuzu to not win a third and solidify his GOAThood for all time. If I have to have a hunch for what will actually happen, I'm leaning Nathan.

I'm not as conflicted. The gold is Nathan's to lose, given his much higher base value. If Yuzuru wins, it's because Nathan didn't skate his best under pressure and, in that case, didn't deserve gold. Yuzuru looked really strong at Nationals and if he can adjust his jump line-up to maximize his likelihood of successfully completing them, he will put pressure on Nathan to deliver. His 4A, which is << on every practice attempt I've ever seen, will earn less than the BV of a 3T, so he's just throwing away 10+ points there on an element which there is no possibility of landing clean instead of doing a 4Lo. I know he wants to make history, and fans want to see the 4A landed at the Olympics, but there is no indication he has ever landed a clean one in training.

 

[el henry]

There is no good answer here because I want Nathan to win his gold just as much as I want Yuzu to win his third, and they can't both have it. I don't think I've felt this conflicted since the Battle of the Brians. Or maybe since Yugudin vs. Plushenko. Or Medvedeva vs. Zagitova. Well, okay, I guess I'm ALWAYS this conflicted at Olympic-time. But both of these men are so incredibly special and it would be a travesty for Nathan to never win Olympic gold, but just as much a travesty for Yuzu to not win a third and solidify his GOAThood for all time. If I have to have a hunch for what will actually happen, I'm leaning Nathan.

Yes, my preferences are torn as well. As an American, I should like Nathan. As a Jason fan, I should like his training mate Yuzu. As skaters, I respect them both.

Before JNats, I wouldn't even have asked the question, because we had not seen Yuzu. Nathan has been on a roll these past three years. But as always, BV or no BV, underestimating Yuzuru Hanyu is a tricky business.

It will be an exciting match up.

 

[snowflake]

I must say that I was completely shocked at how well Vincent skated at skam. He is full of confidence right now and he could really be a factor at the games. US Nationals will be thrilling and may the best man win.

It will! And I agree that Vincent can be a factor at the games. Why not for gold

 

[daffygirl]

It will! And I agree that Vincent can be a factor at the games. Why not for gold

Vincent will either have to rely on others to make big mistakes or get all his jumps rotated. With 7 landed quads at Skate America he still didn’t break 300 because of tech calls. He’s got a shot at the Olympic podium, but gold Is extremely unlikely given the tech calls he gets.

 

[mrrice]

Vincent will either have to rely on others to make big mistakes or get all his jumps rotated. With two clean programs and a five quad free skate at Skate America he still didn’t break 300. He’s got a shot at the Olympic podium, but gold Is extremely unlikely given the tech calls he gets.

This is why Nationals is such a big deal. Do to "Home Cooking" there's a chance that Vincent's UR's will be looked over. That is why he needs to skate Light Out. If he is close to, or defeats Nathan, the dynamic heading into the games will completely change.

 

[starlight97]

If Nathan doesn't make significant mistakes, Yuzuru has no chance.
If Nathan crumbles under pressure as he has often done, sure, Yuzuru will get it.
But Yuzuru has nothing to "decide" here, as others have said, he cannot win on his own, rather Nathan can lose.
I hope Yuzuru knows that nobody is expecting a 3rd gold from him and people just want to enjoy his beautiful skating one more time, his fans won't care about the color of his medal, and even if he were to finish entirely off the podium, he would still be the absolute GOAT - people should not forget about his age and past accomplishments.

 

[snowflake]

Vincent will either have to rely on others to make big mistakes or get all his jumps rotated. With 7 landed quads at Skate America he still didn’t break 300 because of tech calls. He’s got a shot at the Olympic podium, but gold Is extremely unlikely given the tech calls he gets.

Sure, but is it set in stone that he will never rotate his quads? I'm sure he's working hard on them. I'm optimistic