Can Yuzuru Hanyu "three-peat" for Olympic Gold?

[Ali81]

I also think the lack of a crowd and atmosphere may play a role. My overwhelming feeling is that Yuzuru would perform much better if there is a big energized crowd , because he expends alot of emotional energy in his performances and I think he also imbibes energy from the crowd .His performances are very resonant.Probably why he was flat in worlds as the atmosphere was non existent. Nathan is a very cool customer, I always feel like he is skating to satisfy his own ambitions and attain perfection rather than anything else, so the lack of atmosphere won’t affect him as much.

 

[Skater Boy]

I also think the lack of a crowd and atmosphere may play a role. My overwhelming feeling is that Yuzuru would perform much better if there is a big energized crowd , because he expends alot of emotional energy in his performances and I think he also imbibes energy from the crowd .His performances are very resonant.Probably why he was flat in worlds as the atmosphere was non existent. Nathan is a very cool customer, I always feel like he is skating to satisfy his own ambitions and attain perfection rather than anything else, so the lack of atmosphere won’t affect him as much.

I agree with you 100 percent. But under the Olympic pressure anything is possible. Dreams are made or lost on the thin edge of a skate.

 

[Tinymavy15]

Sure, but is it set in stone that he will never rotate his quads? I'm sure he's working hard on them. I'm optimistic

Maybe it will be Vincent's night and Yuzuru/Nathan will settle for silver or bronze. Who knows. This is gonna be a really exciting event, possibly the most exciting of the disciplines. Can't wait and may the best man win.

 

[ElSoteroLoco]

I'm not gonna state or predict ANYTHING! Lets see how the chips may fall!

 

[Blades of Passion]

Hanyu has very little chance of winning, he isn't even trying anymore. He needed to focus on the 5-quad jump layout, without the foolish Quad Axel attempt, if he wanted to beat Nathan. If he wins these Olympics it will be because Nathan imploded. Hanyu's programs simply can not score enough points to beat a typical lifeless jump drill from Nathan Chen.

 

[Greengemmonster]

I hope Nathan gets the gold because if he doesn't, it would mean that he imploded and I NEVER want to see anyone meltdown.

 

[lilshorty]

Honestly, I hope that someone else wins. Yuzuru is good, but he hasn’t skated a perfect LP at the Olympics due to pressure. Nathan is younger, and he has the jumps, but he is prone to messing up and skating “on the fly”. I prefer Vincent’s skating to his because he has better line and artistry imo, and I’m rooting for him to win but still, Vincent needs to get those underroations in check if he wants to be US #1, let alone Olympic champion.

 

[snowflake]

Maybe it will be Vincent's night and Yuzuru/Nathan will settle for silver or bronze. Who knows. This is gonna be a really exciting event, possibly the most exciting of the disciplines. Can't wait and may the best man win.

definitely! the most exciting of the disciplines

 

[mskater93]

I prefer Vincent’s skating to his because he has better line and artistry imo, and I’m rooting for him to win but still, Vincent needs to get those underroations in check if he wants to be US #1, let alone Olympic champion.

Another thing, which Vincent HAS been working on, is skating *in* the ice rather than *on* the ice and better depth of edge. He's not quite *soup* yet in that regard

 

[kolyadafan2002]

Hanyu has very little chance of winning, he isn't even trying anymore. He needed to focus on the 5-quad jump layout, without the foolish Quad Axel attempt, if he wanted to beat Nathan. If he wins these Olympics it will be because Nathan imploded. Hanyu's programs simply can not score enough points to beat a typical lifeless jump drill from Nathan Chen.

Even 4 quads 2x3A would put him in the running if Nathan makes a mistake.
3quads 2x3A isn't enough - especially with 4A<< scoring the same as a nice 2A, when he doesn't have 3Lz in his program.

 

[lzxnl]

The following two programs would actually have similar base values:
4Lo
4S
3Lo
4T+3T
4T+Eu+3S/F
3A+3Lo
3A

4Lz
4F
4S
3A
4T+3T
4T+Eu+3S/F
3Lz+3T

Sure, Nathan would have an extra quad, but repeating a 3T instead of a 3A mostly nullifies the quad advantage. Yuzuru would actually have a base value advantage if he went for

4Lo
4Lz
4S
4T+3T
4T+Eu+3S
3A+3Lo
3A

(which is what I think he should have been training) but we know he's not trying to win and optimise his layout. He should at least try
4A
4Lo
4S
4T+3T
4T+Eu+3S
3A+3Lo
3A

which starts to look like a (strange) woman's FS with all the jumps up a revolution.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Not sure why people are proposing the 3A+3L. The 3T is way more stable and suitable for him and it would be a risk to try a combo he hasn’t done in competition yet.

 

[4everchan]

Not sure why people are proposing the 3A+3L. The 3T is way more stable and suitable for him and it would be a risk to try a combo he hasn’t done in competition yet.

simply because they saw him train it and land it... i agree.. it's not because skaters are practicing and training things that they will do them in competition

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

simply because they saw him train it and land it... i agree.. it's not because skaters are practicing and training things that they will do them in competition

Agreed it’s like when people saw the Euler 4S from him once.

I get fantasy layouts but it’s important to think practically.

A realistic, safe layout for Hanyu to challenge Chen for gold would be

4L
4S
3Z (ideally 4Z if he still has it)
4T+3T
4T+Eu+3Sx
3A+2Tx
3Ax

But sure if you want a fantasy layout which he isn’t capable of:

4A
4L
4Z
4S
4T+Eu+3Fx
4T+3Tx
3A+2Tx

 

[4everchan]

But sure if you want a fantasy layout which he isn’t capable of:

4A
4L
4Z
4S
4T+Eu+3Fx
4T+3Tx
3A+3Lx

hehe i corrected your fantasy layout number 2... fantasy needs to be fantasy

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

hehe i corrected your fantasy layout number 2... fantasy needs to be fantasy

Right of course forgot about the 3A+3L. We should add the 4S+Eu+4S in there and 4T+3A too somewhere but too lazy to figure that out right now.

 

[AxelLover]

4Lo
4S
3Lo
4T+3T
4T+Eu+3S/F
3A+3Lo
3A

The second 3A in this layout would be invalidated. There are two 4Ts and two 3Los.

 

[lzxnl]

The second 3A in this layout would be invalidated. There are two 4Ts and two 3Los.

You're right, I forgot. We could always just swap the first 3Lo with a 3Lz or some other triple.

Not sure why people are proposing the 3A+3L. The 3T is way more stable and suitable for him and it would be a risk to try a combo he hasn’t done in competition yet.

Proposing it for the extra base value, that is all. He already has a 4T-3T, so he needs to do something else for a combination, and currently he does 3A-2Ts. It's ironic that after these Olympics when he's probably not skating anymore, 3A-3A/4T-3A would then become viable.

 

[Blades of Passion]

Not sure why people are proposing the 3A+3L. The 3T is way more stable and suitable for him

The topic has been explained so many times, why do you keep repeating this fallacy?

Hanyu can't do multiple +3Toe combos in an ideal jump layout. The +3Loop wouldn't replace a 3Toe. It replaces a 2Toe, which is a huge base value increase.

But obviously it's too late to try at the Olympics if he hasn't already been training it. He should have started seriously training it a couple years ago though, as it would be a big way to gain ground over the field.

 

[zanadude]

To answer the original question, if Hanyu can three-peat at the Olympics, the earliest he can do so is 2034.