JGP Canada: Men's Predictions

[GS Forum Staff]

Pre-game chat and predictions for 2018 JGP Canada: Men

Here is a link to the entries for the Men (Updated 9/12)
http://www.isuresults.com/events/cat03108795.htm

James MIN	AUS
Beres CLEMENTS	CAN
Stephen GOGOLEV	CAN
Iliya KOVLER	CAN
Che Yu YEH	TPE
Adam SIAO HIM FA	FRA
Heung Lai ZHAO	HKG
Muhammad Dwi Rizqy APOLIANTO	INA
Yuma KAGIYAMA	JPN
Sena MIYAKE	JPN
Rakhat BRALIN	KAZ
Kai Xiang CHEW	MAS
Harrison BAIN	NZL
Petr GUMENNIK	RUS
Matvei VETLUGIN	RUS
Chadwick WANG	SGP
Nikolaj MAJOROV	SWE
Micah Kai LYNETTE	THA
Basar OKTAR	TUR
Tomoki HIWATASHI	USA
Peter LIU	USA

 

[Colonel Green]

Personal best rankings:

1. Stephen GOGOLEV - 226.63
2. Tomoki HIWATASHI - 222.52 (2015/16 season)
3. Petr GUMENNIK - 197.82 (2015/16 season)
4. Basar OKTAR - 194.39
5. Adam SIAO HIM FA - 183.46
6. Yuma KAGIYAMA - 174.90
7. Sena MIYAKE - 174.66
8. Kai Xiang CHEW - 172.18
9. Micah Kai LYNETTE - 166.00
10. Nikolaj MAJOROV - 163.31
11. James MIN - 155.22
12. Peter LIU - 148.89 (2015/16 season)
13. Beresford CLEMENTS - 146.43
14. Iliya KOVLER - 142.87
15. Chadwick WANG - 121.07
16. Heung Lai ZHAO - 112.00
17. Harrison BAIN - 111.34
18. Mauro CALCAGNO - 93.61
19. Che Yu YEH - 86.44
20. Muhammad Dwi Rizqy APOLIANTO - 77.59

Rakhat BRALIN - no PB listed or easily determinable elsewhere.
Matvei VETLUGIN - see above.

This is definitely Gogo's competition to lose.

 

[chuckm]

Just a note: Personal Best is not necessarily a good indicator of how the skater is doing currently, especially if the PB is older than a year or was for a very young skater.

 

[Colonel Green]

Just a note: Personal Best is not necessarily a good indicator of how the skater is doing currently, especially if the PB is older than a year or was for a very young skater.

Everyone is aware of that. That's why I specifically note when personal bests are older -- though in Hiwatashi's case, his personal bests from last season would still put him in second place, just further back.

And as for Gogo, the personal best shows that if he can deliver most of his content, nobody else is likely to touch him. He can do less than what he did in Bratislava and it will probably be enough.

 

[AlexRus]

Junior Men (Main Entries) in order of Personal Best
In ( ) - best unofficial, at competitions which don't give ISU Best, only for skaters who haven't ISU Best.

1 Stephen GOGOLEV CAN 226.63
2 Tomoki HIWATASHI USA 222.52 (at season 2015/2016)
3 Matvei VETLUGIN RUS (212.30 looks too high)
4 Petr GUMENNIK RUS 197.82
5 Basar OKTAR TUR 194.39
6 Adam SIAO HIM FA FRA 183.46
7 Yuma KAGIYAMA JPN (174.90)
8 Sena MIYAKE JPN 174.66
9 Kai Xiang CHEW MAS 172.18
10 Nikolaj MAJOROV SWE 167.32
11 Micah Kai LYNETTE THA (166.00)
12 James MIN AUS 160.97
13 Peter LIU USA 148.89
14 Beres CLEMENTS CAN 146.43
15 Iliya KOVLER CAN 142.87
16 Rakhat BRALIN KAZ (135.85)
17 Chadwick WANG SGP 121.07
18 Heung Lai ZHAO HKG (112.00)
19 Harrison BAIN NZL 111.34
20 Muhammad Dwi Rizqy APOLIANTO INA 77.59
21 Che Yu YEH TPE 71.66

 

[chuckm]

Everyone is aware of that. That's why I specifically note when personal bests are older -- though in Hiwatashi's case, his personal bests from last season would still put him in second place, just further back.

Tomoki was recovering from an injury last season....

 

[Colonel Green]

Tomoki was recovering from an injury last season....

You seem to have read the statement precisely backward, since my point was that even if his performance had declined he still had the second-best personal best.

Moreover, it isn't merely a question of last season, since he didn't come close to his 2016 Junior Worlds highpoint in the 2016-17 season either.

None of this is to say that he couldn't improve, but it would at this point be a marked departure from his performance history in recent years to approach his all-time personal best.

 

[Ice Dance]

Moreover, it isn't merely a question of last season, since he didn't come close to his 2016 Junior Worlds highpoint in the 2016-17 season either.

I believe Tomoki had injury issues that season as well. He was healthy, though, about midway through last season's JGP.

If he does his job, he'll pass that 2016 score. His base value is higher now. Will he get the job done? Oh, who the heck knows? It's the men.

I think Tomoki really has that triple axel. He's nailed it several times in all the warm-ups I've watched him in since he put it back into his programs. Think he just gets nervous in competition, and the percentages go down. The quad is an upon-occasion thing.

If I remember correctly, it took Nathan three years to match his initial PB in juniors. Combination of a really great skate early on followed up by injury issues.

I think the junior-level ISU PBs are very relevant within a junior field. (Don't think the national PBs are. National events seem to be judged on a whole different scale. But, hey, kudos to anyone who has the time & energy to dig up all these scores).

 

[el henry]

I like me some Tomoki. He has spins to die for.

But this year he does not have Rohene choreo AFAIK And his expression/performance I really really hope has improved, but I don’t know.

I voted Stephen not cause I care about a million quads, but because there is no Camden/Andrew when he’s on/Conrad when he’s on/Koshiro to challenge him on the performance side.

But it’s juniors, so who knows? Why I love the junior men

 

[Arriba627]

Wishing Tomoki lots of luck in the free. He does have nice spins, and his Alex-taught jumps are pretty solid too. I know last January during Nats he was coping with a little bit of tendonitis. Not sure what the situation is now on that. Certainly hope he's doing well.