- Joined
- Jun 21, 2003
However, you are *assuming* the most extreme scenario in your hypothesis, a difference of 12 points in (1), and then claim that the probability of that happening is *THE SAME* as a more plausible scenario,
I made no such claim.
However, that would be an interesting study. Maybe we can cajole Vanshilar into undertaking it. Take all possible permutations of judges' scores (9 factorial divided by k factorial whenever there are k scores the same), and see what percentage of the time it comes up one way rather than another.
As for what is intuitively more likely, well … in this argument some people think it is more likely that some judges are stingier across the board, while others think it is more likely that some of the judges were biased. I do not have an opinion about which of these is more likely. We do know that in figure skating judging both happen. My only point is that we cannot decide by looking at the protocols, thanks to randomized anonymous judging.