Ladies skating 2018 and beyond

[kalee]

By the way, even if they don't attend a regular school, they still have to study and take exams too, like everyone else. Evgenia, Elena, Anna, etc. all talk about this in their interviews.

Yep aren't Yulia & Anna attending college? Seem to recall them posting pix on Periscope when entering uni...

Actually, I think the Japanese have a more crowded pipeline of senior GP-level talent than the Russians for 2018 and 2019 -- currently they have 8 skaters on 2 GP assignments each who should all still be active for the next year, and there is the prospect of 4 more new seniors next season: Marin, Yuna Shiraiwa, Rin Nitaya, and Kaori Sakamoto. Out of these 12 skaters, IIRC there are 4 (Mao, Satoko, Rika Hongo, Kanako) who have scored in the high 190s to 200+ points and 5 more who have scored above 180 (Wakaba, Mai, Kaori, Yuna, Marin). Then the following year there will be Rika Kihira & Mako Yamashita, both of whom have already scored 180+ to 190+ and beaten the current crop of Russian girls in JGP. Even if Mao and Kanako retire post-Olympics, they have 16 spots vs. potentially 12 qualifying skaters in 2019. And all the girls who hit their peak at age 17-18 should still be pretty stable into their early 20's as their jumps would already have survived puberty by then.

The Russians, on the other hand, have a tsunami of talent every year but it ends up being self-selecting by the time the girls reach the age threshold to turn senior, as some of the skaters who blossomed pre-puberty end up struggling after it. Out of the 9 skaters who have / had GP assignments this year, 3 are struggling (Artemieva, Leonova and Sima). There shouldn't be more than 3 girls rising from juniors next year (Tsurskaya, Fedichkina and maybe Konstantinova) so they will still be on 16 spots to 9 skaters, which is less crowded than Japan.

 

[senatormls]

I do agree with the Russian and Japanese ladies. THe problem I see with the Russian ladies is the star factor that lasts about one season. The current World Champ is the only exception. There is such a deep field in today's Russian ladies' skaters that it has become a dog eat dog world.
About Korea,first they must stop using the 'next Kim Yuna'. Second the delegation needs to tone down the OG 2018 pressure on these hopefuls. There is an abundance of talent but patience is needed.
I do worry about the US ladies. Not so hot on the junior scene and Karen Chen has yet to come back with her 2015 Nationals 'zing'. Mariah Bell is 20 (?) and has yet to reach a 130 LP score. Others like Tyler Pierce have yet to wow me or sell it. Don't get me started about Polina. I will politely say that she is NOT my cup of tea.
Canada has finally seen some long awaited competition in the ladies' field. That could be a big push for ladies' skating in Canada.
Think about Europe, there is a girl from Latvia, and who knows, Finland, Sweden.... Think about Javi from Spain. Who would in their wildest dreams ever think 20 years ago that a World Champion figure skater would come from SPAIN?

 

[Alex D]

The vast majoricorrectussian skaters do not get any special benefit so atsoever nor are they leaving school at 11. They have to show results first to get funding and it's obviously extremely competitive, and you don't get continued funding if the results don't warrant it. By the way, even if they don't attend a regular school, they still have to study and take exams too, like everyone else. Evgenia, Elena, Anna, etc. all talk about this in their interviews.

You got my words wrong or I wasnt clear.

The skaters you mentioned are all 15 plus. What I talk about starts at a much younger Age.

The Russian System and please correct me if I am wrong, allows its Top talents to focus fully on the Sport. They might have 1 or 2 hour s of School a day and practice 8. I mentioned this at the Bavarian Open where one Russian Coach mentioned this.

I doubt this exists in the USA. Again, please correct me if I am wrong friendly Americans.

Gracie went to a regular School until 9 TH grade, I am sure she couldn't skate there for 8 hours... But had to actually join a skating Club.

A lot is developed early on, its very hard to catch up if you can only focus on FS with 14+ or so with home schooling that gracie did after leaving regular School.

There Russia has an edge over many other nations me thinks.

There was also a documentary about the Mishin School, very interesting with a lot of Insight.

 

[mrrice]

After getting my first look at Mai MIHARA, I'm going to have to say that she'll be on the Podium in 2018. I have never heard of her but, she reminds me of a young Akiko Suzuki. Is she, or someone from her former coaching staff involved with this cute young skater? She looks promising and it's no easy task to beat Tuk. That's a feather in her cap that she will have for a lifetime.

 

[hanca]

Do such skaters really exist? I mean, I'm sure some of them are probably from a very wealthy family but I think that the vast majority of them are from a middle class environment, which means that skating costs are a burden for the family. In fact, you often hear how much sacrifices went into funding your child skating before they reach top ranks (Ashley Wagner had to work to support herself; both Yuzu and Javi's sisters quit because their families couldn't afford two children skating and both their moms had to find a job to help cover the costs; Chan and his 150k a year expenses and so on...). I think that in NA and most of Europe the lack of state funds inevitably lead to less children chosing skating; those who do inevitably come from middle to upper class family. In countries with state funds, such as Japan and Russia, there will be more children skating and therefore a deeper poll of talents to choose from.

Yes, such skaters really exist. The skater was US ice dancer. I think now she skates for Israel.

I am aware that not ALL US skaters' families are well off. But the post written by Alex D was so overgeneralising that I couldn't help myself to respond the same way. It is not all Russians who are excused from school. The majority of them study, they just arrange it around the sport. But they have to pass test/exams like anyone else. So the post about Russian skaters rubbed me the wrong way and I responded with another stereotype. Poor little rich girls...

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

Ladies skating 2018 and beyond.........

Elizabet Tursynbaeva had better be there

 

[Biellmann]

Both russians and Japanese have talented skaters - mostly girls. But the russian girls often fall apart when they reach puberty while the japanese girls stays strong medal contenders. Sooner or later there will come a canadian or american or finnish or german girl, out of nowhere and a new era will begin :giveup:

 

[Biellmann]

I do agree with the Russian and Japanese ladies. THe problem I see with the Russian ladies is the star factor that lasts about one season. The current World Champ is the only exception. There is such a deep field in today's Russian ladies' skaters that it has become a dog eat dog world.
About Korea,first they must stop using the 'next Kim Yuna'. Second the delegation needs to tone down the OG 2018 pressure on these hopefuls. There is an abundance of talent but patience is needed.
I do worry about the US ladies. Not so hot on the junior scene and Karen Chen has yet to come back with her 2015 Nationals 'zing'. Mariah Bell is 20 (?) and has yet to reach a 130 LP score. Others like Tyler Pierce have yet to wow me or sell it. Don't get me started about Polina. I will politely say that she is NOT my cup of tea.
Canada has finally seen some long awaited competition in the ladies' field. That could be a big push for ladies' skating in Canada.
Think about Europe, there is a girl from Latvia, and who knows, Finland, Sweden.... Think about Javi from Spain. Who would in their wildest dreams ever think 20 years ago that a World Champion figure skater would come from SPAIN?

How do you know?

 

[TGee]

About the Canadian ladies: Alaine and Kaetlyn are 20, Gabby is 18. Yes, they are young, but compared to the rising Russian and Japanese skaters, they are already middle-aged.

Hi chuckm

Trying to stay on topic, but hearing that the concept of differences in developmental vs chronological age is somewhat new to fans and not only coaches. Not sure we have the info to know where any of these young women are on that. Middle-aged is a fairly harsh view....

So I would like to ask posters to consider this perspective as we gaze into the future.

The science is saying (according to Sport Canada and the UK equivalent) that skating like gymnastics and diving is a sport that benefit when high skill levels are reached before peak height velocity (teenage growth spurt in non techspeak).

Kids go through growth spurts at different ages. Ethnicity can be a factor among others. In multiethnic countries like Canada and the US, the variation is even higher. The risk is from what I've read in Sport Canada's documents, that the late bloomers, who actually will have more time to aquire skills before peak growth velocity and in the end achieve higher levels of competence, can be pushed out of competition if their progress is benchmarked on the early developers.

So parents hear things like .... on average your child needs at least one triple jump before peak growth....but while the average age for peak growth is well known, the range can be as much as 5 years for early vs late bloomers.

Looking around it appears IMO that Brian Orser understands this and is taking it into account as he works with Elizabet and Roman.

 

[ioanna]

After getting my first look at Mai MIHARA, I'm going to have to say that she'll be on the Podium in 2018. I have never heard of her but, she reminds me of a young Akiko Suzuki. Is she, or someone from her former coaching staff involved with this cute young skater? She looks promising and it's no easy task to beat Tuk. That's a feather in her cap that she will have for a lifetime.

Akiko Suzuki has nothing to do with her. Mai Mihara was a JGP finalist last season along with Marin Honda and Yuna Shiraiwa. She placed last. She had a consistent GP season but then it went downhill. I heard she suffers from juvenile rheumatoid arthritis and the pain and swelling of her knees was a big problem; and I suppose it still is except it's under control. Which 2018 podium is that? The National podium or the Olympic podium? Whichever it is, her health is unfortunately a disadvantage going head to head with the great number of strong Japanese ladies.

 

[bluelutz]

I think that in NA and most of Europe the lack of state funds inevitably lead to less children chosing skating; those who do inevitably come from middle to upper class family. In countries with state funds, such as Japan and Russia, there will be more children skating and therefore a deeper poll of talents to choose from.

Some people got a totally wrong idea.
Not knowing much about the Russian system, at least Japanese skaters do not get any state fund.
So for their families, supporting skaters is hard as for NA families.
Or even harder, because they have a very few year-round skate rinks,
many of them having disappeared in the last two decades,
despite of the rising popularity of Figure skate, due to the extremely high running cost in the city areas.

Some mothers have to drive for their kids for two to three hours everyday.
Also not having alternative tutoring systems like NA kids can get,
all Japanese skaters have to attend regular schools from about 8:00 to 3:00,
and typically they practice like 1.5-2 hours before school, and a few hours after school.
However, most of commercial ice rinks having one long public session 9:00AM to 8:00PM,
skaters have to train in a horrible condition.
Imagine 80 kids on ice, and half of them are recreational skaters, who barely skate,
and you have to practice your jumps, spins and steps
while you keep dodging them and other serious skaters.
Mao, yuzuru, Shoma, you name them, they all started at rinks like that.

Fortunately now big cities like in Nagoya and Osaka,
some of their colleges built very good facilities for their local elite skaters.
But still only handful good skaters can train there,
and most of young ones still have to deal with the rather undesirable conditions.

Compared with that, the training condition that NA kids can enjoy is like a paradise.

Japanese federation provides some financial supports to top skaters, but just partially.
And star skaters can also earn some good amount if they are invited to the shows,
but that is limited to only the top skaters.
Most of others totally depend on their families' sacrifice, and lots of them.

I remember the incident Daisuke Murakami was assigned to one of JGP when he was a junior skater,
and the federation was screwed up with their paper works, and Dice found out he could not compete
only after he arrived there with his coach Morozov.
Till this day, their federation usually pays only the skaters' air fare and hotel,
so skaters have to pay their coaches' traveling costs and their daily coaching fees.
And I can only imagine how much Nicolai charged for his day at that time.
His mother complained to the federation, but they did not reimburse anything besides Dice's cost.

Just this weekend, Rika and Marin were assigned to the same JGP,
and many fans speculated why their federation did not split their assignments
to increase their chances to advance to the final.
One of the reasons is very obvious, they share the same coaching team,
so they can share their coach's fees and expense as well if they are send to the same competition,
which is the practice that their federation has been doing for ages.
So Japanese skater's families have to struggle at least as much as NA counterparts
even if theirs are not greater.

Then how can they produce many top skaters?
Ted Burton shed some light on that subject in his interview article that you can find on his thread.
He basically stated that (unlike Japan) Canada has so many rinks and coaches, but the system is too traditional.
I really like to know more detailed description of the difference in the these two countries system.

 

[concorde]

We had a girl come to our rink this past year who is currently under the Russian "system." For her to continue under the "system," the girl and her mom have twice flown back to Russian (once for the test states) so that the girl can be periodically monitored. Each time they come back, the girl has new skates and new programs all provided by the State. My impression is the competition dress is also provided by the State but I am not sure. [ fyi - I have no idea who is paying her ice time and coaching fees while she is in the US - my guess is the family. The mom says she likes it in the US but she also makes it clear that they cannot afford the US skating expenses.] On the flip side, the mother is completely stressed that the girl may not pass the next round of tests. If she fails the test, all funding will be withdrawn. So under that system, you have to hit their pre-determined milestones or you will be cut. From what I now know about this milestone driven system, it is not surprising it is producing so many wonderkids who only stay around for one year.

Now compare that to the US. There are no pre-determine milestones - skaters continue as along as someone is willing to pay the bills. So the US system allows a skater to develop at their own pace. As a result, you see fewer wonderkids but more mature skaters at the elite level. From what I know about the Russian system, neither Ashley or Gracie would have even been funded through their pre-teen years.

Which is better? each has it pros and cons. They are different so they turn out different skaters.

 

[mrrice]

Akiko Suzuki has nothing to do with her. Mai Mihara was a JGP finalist last season along with Marin Honda and Yuna Shiraiwa. She placed last. She had a consistent GP season but then it went downhill. I heard she suffers from juvenile rheumatoid arthritis and the pain and swelling of her knees was a big problem; and I suppose it still is except it's under control. Which 2018 podium is that? The National podium or the Olympic podium? Whichever it is, her health is unfortunately a disadvantage going head to head with the great number of strong Japanese ladies.

That's sad to hear. I will say this much. I haven't seen "A number of skaters from anywhere, Beat Tuk" so even if she quit tomorrow, I'd remember her skating from this event.

 

[Interspectator]

Akiko Suzuki has nothing to do with her. Mai Mihara was a JGP finalist last season along with Marin Honda and Yuna Shiraiwa. She placed last. She had a consistent GP season but then it went downhill. I heard she suffers from juvenile rheumatoid arthritis and the pain and swelling of her knees was a big problem; and I suppose it still is except it's under control. Which 2018 podium is that? The National podium or the Olympic podium? Whichever it is, her health is unfortunately a disadvantage going head to head with the great number of strong Japanese ladies.

I'm doubly amazed at what Mai's accomplished whilst struggling with a disease that must really cut into her training time. :shocked: Well done Mihara-chan!

 

[Seren]

Right after 2018 I think the story is going to be all about the Russians and the Japanese. But there are some young Korean ladies who look very promising who are not going to be eligible for 2018 who I will be interested to watch. In the US, the Juniors aren't really looking all that strong but there are some Novice ladies who could definitely be a factor after 2018.

 

[concorde]

Since "Americans" tend to peak late, I would not throw them out of the mix. But at this point, it is anyone's guess who this late bloomer will be. 10 years ago, no one would have guessed that Gracie and Ashley would be at the top.

 

[YesWay]

I suspect Russia and Japan will "mostly" dominate until one or more other countries develops the same kind of popularity, and/or attracts the same kind of investment as figure skating in Russia/Japan (state support, advertising, TV coverage, training facilities, coaches etc).

I expect there will always be several "spoilers" from other countries though eg. USA, Canada, European countries.

Maybe Boyang Jin's success will lead to a resurgence of Chinese singles skating... including ladies?

South Korea has a great many young talents, but I wonder how many will make the most of their potential, with current facilities, investment etc? Hasn't South Korea's biggest successes so far, been Yuna Kim and Jun Hwan Cha - both of whom (arguably!) only began reaching their full potential after moving to the Cricket Club in Canada to train...?

 

[kalee]

Since "Americans" tend to peak late, I would not throw them out of the mix.

:agree: Case in point: Mariah Bell

 

[TGee]

Since "Americans" tend to peak late, I would not throw them out of the mix. But at this point, it is anyone's guess who this late bloomer will be. 10 years ago, no one would have guessed that Gracie and Ashley would be at the top.

Uhm, it's been occurring to me that it's possible that Russian girls/women are also in some ways biological late developers. As with gymnasts, they are able to acquire very high level skills and reach the senior age minimum before peak growth and puberty. And this is late enough that they can compete as seniors.

What posters seem to be saying is that we see that the Russian program is doing a great job at finding and developing this talent early on. But while the girls can get to the highest elite performance levels before going through the peak growth and puberty stages, the system is not doing as well in managing the and supporting their physical and psychological transition it appears. There is an observable inconsistency in performance after puberty, and promising talents appear to be at risk.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Since "Americans" tend to peak late, I would not throw them out of the mix. But at this point, it is anyone's guess who this late bloomer will be. 10 years ago, no one would have guessed that Gracie and Ashley would be at the top.

Gracie and Ashley would have had a much tougher time making a world team if they were up against Julia and Adelina in 2014, Liza and Elena in 2015, and Evgenia and Anna in 2016. I think it's more accurate to say that Russia has far more depth in both juniors and seniors than the Americans.