Aldridge and Eaton were 3rd at 4CC and at competed at Worlds in 2014
Let me ask it differently. Do you think their "body of work" would get them to the Olympics with a pewter? I think a pewter and body of work would be enough for the Shibs and Chock and Bates, but I think H/D still need a a great fall season to nail down their body of work argument.
No, I don't think they have the "body of work" to get on the Olympic team, but I think, at this point, I'd put them at 90 percent odds that they will manage to get into the top 3. I think the battle will be more who will get the 4CC spots cause there are easily at least 4 teams that have a legitimate shot at them and there's only 3 of those spots too.
Can we really call H/D's mistakes "flukes" when they make them at almost every major competition?
These young teams are very strong & very talented. McNamara & Carpenter, the Parsons, and Hawayek & Baker have all proven themselves internationally and do have a body of work that stretches back years and demonstrates competitiveness (P&B don't). H&B have a personal best only three points off of Hubbell & Donohue's. M&C and the Parsons have been dominating the JGP and earning full slates of spots for U.S. junior ice dance the past three seasons. (I can picture any one of these particular three young teams passing mid-quad medalists and fighting for places on the podium by 2022).
It would be hard to tell any of these young teams they haven't done enough if one of them managed to defeat H&D, C&B, or the Shibs head-to-head in competition.
But to make this U.S. ice dance team, you are essentially going to have to prove that you can medal at the Olympic Games. Because that is exactly what the current top three dance teams have done.
I'm in complete agreement that Hubbell & Donohue have proven themselves as a top-level senior team. (I also disagree that the world medal "was theirs" prior to the fall. You never count an FD in the books until the hardest elements are done, and that means at the very least, both footwork sequences and the twizzles.
I'm completely in agreement that a junior dance record vs. a senior dance record are very different.
That does not mean a dance team cannot prove itself during this senior season. But it is a wildly huge ask. For perspective, the only dance team in history that has medaled at Worlds in its first season won two bronze medals on the GP that year. That would not have been enough to top the current top three U.S. dance teams on the GP this season. Virtue & Moir's first full senior season's results would not have been enough. Davis & White's first two senior season's results would not have been enough. Even Klimova & Ponomarenko's early season's results would not have been enough.
I'm in complete agreement that Hubbell & Donohue have proven themselves as a top-level senior team. (I also disagree that the world medal "was theirs" prior to the fall. You never count an FD in the books until the hardest elements are done, and that means at the very least, both footwork sequences and the twizzles. No men's or lady's LP is considered someone's before two of his or her most difficult elements have been attempted). Rather, Hubbell & Donohue have proven themselves to be medal contenders by 1. defeating Weaver & Poje at 4CCs, 2. defeating Bobrova & Soloviev at SA &--maybe more important--splitting placements with them outside of the U.S., 3. placing third in the SD at Worlds, 4. earning a couple level 4s on the footwork at Worlds.
Having said all that, I do have to say that this year's Nationals is at least as poor a comparison as the teams' current PBs. A one-fall vs. two-fall competition tells us mostly that both H&B and H&D can have a crummy competition.
Finally, I have to add that Chock & Bates were at least as implosive this season as Hubbell & Donahue.
Here's why I sustain the world medal "was theirs" prior to the fall. Up until the fall they were on par to wind up at least third, the TES tracker looked good, and reviewing the protocols the GOEs for their elements were good. There were only two required elements left to complete before the fall, the twizzle sequence which (unfortunately) immediately transitioned into the diagonal step sequence. The first step sequence (circular) had already occurred earlier in the program, and it'd earned a L4 and 10.80 points, the second highest mark for that element in the FD event. V/M's diagonal step sequence garnered 10.94 points.
The fall happens, and because the 1st set of twizzles isn't completed, the whole element is thrown out and they get 0 points in combined Base Value/GOE for it. That wiped out 6.60/5.60 points in base value for L4/L3 twizzles, plus at least .51 points in GOE, which is the most modest GOE for completed twizzles by the top 10, the highest being 1.80 points. For reference, H/D had the highest twizzle sequence score in the SD (8.23 points, BV 6.60, GOE 1.63). They're not weak "twizzlers."
The debacle with the twizzles happens and the judges were probably still in shock as H/D go into the diagonal step sequence. Even though it gets a decent 1.73 in GOE, the sequence gets called a L2. This means a loss of at least 1.50 points in BV had they received a L3, which is within their usual range.
A bare bones estimate of points lost* comes out to, let's say, 8.61 (5.60 + .51 + 1.50 + 1 mandatory fall deduction point), and the difference in total scores between 3rd (185.18) and 9th (177.70) was 7.48 points. The fall cost them the bronze.
But, the quality of their skating is not going to suddenly disappear, disappointment or not. I'm excited to see what they do this season.
P.S. *and excluding any impact the fall may have had in PCS