2018-19 Grand Prix Final Predictions

[skatenewbie]

Videos were bad angles but they looked fine to me (but I'm not Shayuki )
But yeah, rotation will be key. But even if it's UR, the advantage of 3Lz-3Lo in the short is that you don't have to have the lesser-valued 3T.

still its better and worth more to rotate 3Lz-3T rather than 3Lz-3Lo<

 

[Yuzuruu]

From Kostner's Back to Black performances in shows this summer, it looks like she is going for both the 3Lz and 3F in her SP. If she adds a 3T to the back of her 3F, along with the GOE she gets for her quality jumps, she will likely lead in the short even vs Zagitova or Medvedeva. She will likely up her technical content in the long as well. So she can very well win both her assignments.

That is so true! With the Zagi rule in motion Caro is very much in the game, I completely forgot she continues! Therefore I suppose my ladies predition should change:

1. Wakaba Higuchi
2. Satoko Miyahara :luv17:
3. Alina Zagitova
4. Carolina Kostner
5. Evgenia Medvedeva
6. Gabby Daleman

sorry TukTik

 

[yume]

I doubt that Kostner will do both 3F-3T and 3lz in SP. It will be difficult for her to skate clean consistently, even if she's strong in SP. She skated the SP with 3F-3T four times and was clean twice. I think 3F-3T/3lo/2A is more than enough for her. She can beat Medvedeva with that. As she scored 80+ with only 2A in 2nd part while Medvedeva scored 80+ with all her jumps in 2nd part.
And we saw that 3lz + 3F-3T never worked for her in the LP.

 

[Yuzuruu]

I doubt that Kostner will do both 3F-3T and 3lz in SP. It will be difficult for her to skate clean consistently, even if she's strong in SP. She skated the SP with 3F-3T four times and was clean twice. I think 3F-3T/3lo/2A is more than enough for her. She can beat Medvedeva with that. As she scored 80+ with only 2A in 2nd part while Medvedeva scored 80+ with all her jumps in 2nd part.
And we saw that 3lz + 3F-3T never worked for her in the LP.

I agree. While Caro can do a nice and clean short, she probably won't be able to do the same in the free. I wonder why exactly that is, I mean her technique is excellent, she should be able to execute is it really age and stamina?

 

[lavenderblossom]

I agree. While Caro can do a nice and clean short, she probably won't be able to do the same in the free. I wonder why exactly that is, I mean her technique is excellent, she should be able to execute is it really age and stamina?

Wasn't Carolina always hot and cold? I don't think it's stamina, she did a good FS at CoR 2017 and Italian nationals last season.

 

[yume]

I agree. While Caro can do a nice and clean short, she probably won't be able to do the same in the free. I wonder why exactly that is, I mean her technique is excellent, she should be able to execute is it really age and stamina?

I think she has always been more a SP skater than a FS skater. She did 9 free skates in international competitions last season and was clean just once. And that was when she had no 3lz and 3-3. Would not be bad for her to go back to her 6 triples program. She bombed less with that and can score big as judges will surely shower her with +3s and +4s.

 

[yume]

For men i can't see Hanyu, Uno and Chen bomb enough to miss the final. Beside, Uno has extremely favorable GPs, so the guy can bomb very badly à la Milan and still medal. Kolyada can bomb in Russia and still medal. He will likely medal in Finland too. Jin it will depends of if he has no injuries. If he's on shape he will be in. Brown has a very favorable field in Canada. Zhou as a big tech potential even if he's inconsistent. Aliev is a Joker. Erokhov can be dangerous
If he shpws a good shape at test skates. Fed can give him some love.
Uno
Chen
Hanyu
Kolyada
Jin
Aliev

Subtitutes
Brown
Zou
Erokhov

 

[BillNeal]

I doubt that Kostner will do both 3F-3T and 3lz in SP. It will be difficult for her to skate clean consistently, even if she's strong in SP. She skated the SP with 3F-3T four times and was clean twice. I think 3F-3T/3lo/2A is more than enough for her. She can beat Medvedeva with that. As she scored 80+ with only 2A in 2nd part while Medvedeva scored 80+ with all her jumps in 2nd part.
And we saw that 3lz + 3F-3T never worked for her in the LP.

Now that she has her lutz back, she may be trying to incorporate it early in the season, from the Challengers onwards, rather than add it back at Nationals. Why else would she be attempting a 3Lz in shows? She is trying to get it consistent in the off-season to add it in competition.

 

[yume]

Well, if she really plans to add it that's ambitious, and a good thing. It must be a long long long time that she landed 3F-3T + 3lz. in SP.

 

[BillNeal]

Well, if she really plans to add it that's ambitious, and a good thing. It must be a long long long time that she landed 3F-3T + 3lz. in SP.

I wouldn't be surprised if she does go for it and manages to succeed. She has been steadily upping her tech in both programs since her comeback. I think few people thought she would nail the SP at both Euros and Worlds last season, and even win it there. Remember, she landed a beautiful lutz in both Olympic individual and team FS and got 1.50 GOE for it. With new SOV, there's slightly more incentive for her to do the 3Lz instead of 3Lo.

 

[skatenewbie]

Now that she has her lutz back, she may be trying to incorporate it early in the season, from the Challengers onwards, rather than add it back at Nationals. Why else would she be attempting a 3Lz in shows? She is trying to get it consistent in the off-season to add it in competition.

its 2Lz tho not 3Lz. but i think she does want to hit 3Lz consistently. That could mean she want to do it in FS like she always been or in SP like you said but i doubt it though... Or maybe repeat both 3Lz and 3F in FS? She have done 3Lz in combo too in the past even 3Lz+3T

 

[BillNeal]

its 2Lz tho not 3Lz. but i think she does want to hit 3Lz consistently. That could mean she want to do it in FS like she always been or in SP like you said but i doubt it though... Or maybe repeat both 3Lz and 3F in FS? She have done 3Lz in combo too in the past even 3Lz+3T

Yes, I mentioned attempting. I agree she wants more practice with it, because she could have done any other jump in place there. I think one 3Lz in each program is more likely than repeating 3Lz in the free.

 

[Shayuki]

... This is truly grasping at straws. Doing a 2Lutz(planned 2Lutz, not a pop) at an exhibition means that she's "practicing it even in exhibitions"? That's not where you practice. You practice at your practice sessions.

Anyway, I personally hope that if Kostner makes the GPF she actually earns it and doesn't get propped up like when she defeated Wakaba Higuchi and Polina Tsurskaya last season.

 

[Ophelia]

I agree. While Caro can do a nice and clean short, she probably won't be able to do the same in the free. I wonder why exactly that is, I mean her technique is excellent, she should be able to execute is it really age and stamina?

Nerves. She's always been a headcase.

 

[yume]

The thing is she doesn't need the 3lz. There are just 2 other girls who have 80+ potential. I won't be surprised if even a Wakaba with 3A / 3lz-3T / 3F doesn't get that score. She's safe, her PCS and GOEs are high enough. That 1 more point on BV is not what will make her win against Medvedeva and Zagitova.

 

[BillNeal]

... This is truly grasping at straws. Doing a 2Lutz(planned 2Lutz, not a pop) at an exhibition means that she's "practicing it even in exhibitions"? That's not where you practice. You practice at your practice sessions.

Anyway, I personally hope that if Kostner makes the GPF she actually earns it and doesn't get propped up like when she defeated Wakaba Higuchi and Polina Tsurskaya last season.

A matter of perspective. Why are you even referring to Rostelecom Cup when Kostner skated two perfect programs and Higuchi had an underrotation, unclear edge, and a pop over two programs?

 

[yume]

I think Rostelecom result was right even if there were some generous scores. NHK, GPF, Euros and olympics are more questionables. IMO, if she earns or doesn't earn a placement shouldn't even be a question anymore as the answer is obvious most of the time.

 

[BillNeal]

^ Also IMO, as I mentioned in another thread, Zagitova was very much held up at Worlds and there should have been at least a bigger gap between her and Kostner. Even with Kostner's mistakes, it was much less disruptive to her performance than Zagitova's falls, where the whole back half was affected by those three interruptions.

But this conversation is getting off-topic. I'm hoping to see some great skates from Kostner and maybe even win a grand prix that she hasn't won before.

 

[yume]

Zagitova was very much held up at Worlds and there should have been at least a bigger gap between her and Kostner.

No.

 

[Ziotic]

No.

Zag was absolutely held up at worlds to salvage three spots for Russia. Had she placed any lower they would be going into this year with only 2 berths.

My hopes for GPF Ladies:
Evgenia
Wakaba
Kaori
Gabby
Caro
Bradie

Unfortunately based on assignments this is next to impossible.