JGP Canada: Ladies' Predictions

[GS Forum Staff]

Pre-game chat and predictions for 2018 JGP Canada: Ladies

Here is a link to the entries for the Ladies (Updated 9/12)
http://www.isuresults.com/events/cat03108796.htm

Cristina Mikaela VLASSOV RODIGUINA	ARG
Lucy Sori YUN	AUS
Kim CHEREMSKY	AZE
Alexandra FEIGIN	BUL
Sarah-Maude BLANCHARD	CAN
Hannah DAWSON	CAN
Alison SCHUMACHER	CAN
Siyang ZHANG	CHN
Yu-Hsun LIN	TPE
Alizee CROZET	FRA
Hiu Ching KWONG	HKG
Ishita KAPOOR	IND
Kelly Elizabeth SUPANGAT	INA
Marina PIREDDA	ITA
Yuna AOKI	JPN
Rion SUMIYOSHI	JPN
Anastassiya KHVAN	KAZ
Hui Jeen TAN	MAS
Eugenia GARZA	MEX
Nicola KORCK	NZL
Diane Gabrielle PANLILIO	PHI
Jihun TO	KOR
Young YOU	KOR
Anna SHCHERBAKOVA	RUS
Anastasia TARAKANOVA	RUS
Xin Yi LOKE	SGP
Thita LAMSAM	THA
Guzide Irmak BAYIR	TUR
Gabriella IZZO	USA

 

[AlexRus]

Junior Ladies (Main Entries) in order of Personal Best
In ( ) - best unofficial, at competitions which don't give ISU Best, only for skaters who haven't ISU Best.

1 Anna SHCHERBAKOVA RUS 205.39
2 Anastasia TARAKANOVA RUS 199.64
3 Young YOU KOR 183.98
4 Yuna AOKI JPN 169.60
5 Gabriella IZZO USA (168.03)
6 Jihun TO KOR 162.40
7 Alison SCHUMACHER CAN 148.76
8 Sarah-Maude BLANCHARD CAN (148.52 JrNats)
9 Alexandra FEIGIN BUL 147.50
10 Hannah DAWSON CAN (146.70)
11 Rion SUMIYOSHI JPN (145.96)
12 Marina PIREDDA ITA (144.71)
13 Alizee CROZET FRA 133.15
14 Guzide Irmak BAYIR TUR 124.78
15 Kim CHEREMSKY AZE 124.45 season 2015/2016, new 82.56
16 Hiu Ching KWONG HKG 116.25
17 Thita LAMSAM THA 106.87
18 Anastassiya KHVAN KAZ 86.81
19 Kelly Elizabeth SUPANGAT INA (86.78)
20 Nicola KORCK NZL 86.24
21 Siyang ZHANG CHN (85.13)
22 Xin Yi LOKE SGP 83.44
23 Lucy Sori YUN AUS 80.61
24 Yu-Hsun LIN TPE 79.05
25 Diane Gabrielle PANLILIO PHI 77.05
26 Ishita KAPOOR IND 68.17
27 Hui Jeen TAN MAS (66.23)

Cristina Mikaela VLASSOV RODIGUINA ARG -
Eugenia GARZA MEX -

 

[kalee]

Main question is, do we think Shcherbakova will attempt a quad here?
Arguments for -- opportunity to try it in competition in a safer environment than to have the first time in JGPF or RusNats
Arguments against -- risk of potentially losing gold vs. a clean performance with no quads

 

[Azikin]

Main question is, do we think Shcherbakova will attempt a quad here?
Arguments for -- opportunity to try it in competition in a safer environment than to have the first time in JGPF or RusNats
Arguments against -- risk of potentially losing gold vs. a clean performance with no quads

You forgot the biggest argument for - to make history. I don't want to start an argument if Sash's 4Lz was UR or not but it's not counted, end of story.
However, I don't think she's the type to go for it if she's not confident she can do it..

 

[zounger]

Main question is, do we think Shcherbakova will attempt a quad here?
Arguments for -- opportunity to try it in competition in a safer environment than to have the first time in JGPF or RusNats
Arguments against -- risk of potentially losing gold vs. a clean performance with no quads

I think that if the potential fall doesn't affect the rest of her program she will win nevertheless. It's not the quad that will decide her win but the cleanness on the other elements. The quad will just grow the margin.

 

[Spirals for Miles]

I think that if the potential fall doesn't affect the rest of her program she will win nevertheless. It's not the quad that will decide her win but the cleanness on the other elements. The quad will just grow the margin.

But... with her, a fall usually means UR (not good for points). And unlike Trusova she can sometimes get nervous after one mistakes and melt down. so if it's not that consistent yet, I wouldn't add it.

 

[zounger]

But... with her, a fall usually means UR (not good for points). And unlike Trusova she can sometimes get nervous after one mistakes and melt down. so if it's not that consistent yet, I wouldn't add it.

That's true. I guess it will depend also if she will lead with enough margin from short. This way you reduce the risk to fall below bronze, which practically guarantees the JGPF. In that case you may risk a bit.
But anyway, for me it's not so important to see a quad in this period of time. Better to focus on the actual program, quad training cone be done in parallel.

I would like though if Anastasia and the other girls put some pressure to her

 

[LiamForeman]

If Anna has a comfortable lead after the SP, I sure hope she goes for the 4lutz. Nothing to lose, everything to gain.

 

[moriel]

If Anna has a comfortable lead after the SP, I sure hope she goes for the 4lutz. Nothing to lose, everything to gain.

This JGP is safer for her - its her second JGP, which means no risc of not getting a second if bombing. Plus, she has a gold, which means she could be second or 3rd here just fine and still make the final.

 

[Vilord]

The russian girls isnt in the first group Though both japanese this time

 

[Spirals for Miles]

Finally a great draw for the Russian ladies! In fact, Anna Shcherbakova appears to be in the best possible position: fifth in the last group

 

[Colonel Green]

Finally a great draw for the Russian ladies! In fact, Anna Shcherbakova appears to be in the best possible position: fifth in the last group

I haven't seen any indication in any of the JGP events that the short program draw affects scoring, when everybody knows the skating order is totally random instead of being based on rankings. Being placed in the first groups in the past hasn't kept any previous Russian skater's score down, or boosted their rivals skating later.

 

[Spirals for Miles]

I haven't seen any indication in any of the JGP events that the short program draw affects scoring, when everybody knows the skating order is totally random instead of being based on rankings. Being placed in the first groups in the past hasn't kept any previous Russian skater's score down, or boosted their rivals skating later.

Sorry, I meant best for Anna as in skating order -- fifth means that she will have plenty of time to do a full warmup without loosing too much by waiting too long to skate.

 

[Elucidus]

If Anna has a comfortable lead after the SP, I sure hope she goes for the 4lutz. Nothing to lose, everything to gain.

On the flipside if she bombs her SP - 4Lz will become a neccessity too :think:

 

[rikaquegira]

Rooting for Young to podium here!
I don’t know the Japanese ladies... Also unsure about Tarakanova’s state. Maybe Young can get a silver?
I guess we’ll see!

Wishing them all the best of luck!

 

[Ice Dance]

Yuna Aoki: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zZz6GLNztN0

She skated the season after this (finished 4th & 5th in her JGP events in 2016) but this 2015 performance is the one I remember most as it was the first time I saw her. I am glad to see her back from injury.