Russian Champs: Predictions Game Round 4

[baymax24]

Men
1. Maxim Kovtun
2. Adian Pikteev
3. Artur Dmitriev
4. Sergei Voronov
5. Dmitri Aliev
6. Konstantin Menshov

Ladies
1. Evgenia Medvedeva
2. Polina Tsurskaya
3. Elena Radionova
4. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
5. Maria Sotskova
6. Alisa Fedichkina

Pairs
1. Stolbova/Klimov
2. Volosozhar/Trankov
3. Kavaguti/Smirnov
4. Tarasova/Morozov
5. Astakhova/Rogonov
6. Zabijako/Enbert

Dance
1. Bobrova/Soloviev
2. Ilinykh/Zhiganshin
3. Sinitsina/Katsalapov
4. Stepanova/Bukin
5. Monko/Khaliavin
6. Yanovskaya/Mozgov

 

[paulusfr]

Oh, Monko/Khaliavin w/d too. Seems no replacement.
http://rsport.ru/figure_skating/20151223/886834549.html
http://rsport.ru/figure_skating/20151223/886835032.html

 

[matmuh]

Ladies
Dance
1. I-Zh
2. Sin-Kats
3, B-S
4. Ya-M
5. St-B
6. T-G

Pair
1. K-S
2. V-T
3. T-M
4. A-R
5. B-D

you need to at least include full surnames of skaters for your predictions to count, you can copy from the original post

 

[Sugarpova]

Ladies
1. Evgenia Medvedeva
2. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
3. Elena Radionova
4. Polina Tsurskaya
5. Adelina Sotnikova
6. Maria Sotskova

Men
1. Adian Pitkeev
2. Maxim Kovtun
3. Sergei Voronov
4. Mikhail Kolyada
5. Artur Dmitriev Jr
6. Konstantin Menshov

Pairs
1. Tatiana Volosozhar / Maxim Trankov
2. Yuko Kavaguti / Alexander Smirnov (go K/SSSSSSS )
3. Evgenia Tarasova / Vladimir Morozov
4. Kristina Astakhova / Alexei Rogonov
5. Vera Bazarova / Andrei Deputat
6. Natalja Zabijako / Alexander Enbert

Dance
1. Ekaterina Bobrova / Dmitri Soloviev
2. Victoria Sinitsina / Nikita Katsalapov
3. Elena Ilinykh / Ruslan Zhiganshin
4. Alexandra Stepanova / Ivan Bukin
5. Anna Yanovskaya / Sergey Mozgov
6. Tiffany Zahorski / Jonathan Guerreriro

 

[CaroLiza_fan]

Oh, Monko/Khaliavin w/d too. Seems no replacement.
http://rsport.ru/figure_skating/20151223/886834549.html
http://rsport.ru/figure_skating/20151223/886835032.html

Another withdrawal!

Doris said in the General Info thread that they are replaced by Margarita SHESTAKOVA / Savely UGRIUMOV

So as to updates, Stilbova- Klimov are replaced by Sofia Biryukova - Andrei Filonov
and Monko - Khaliavin are replaced by Margarita Shestakova - Savely Ugriumov

It's a good job I haven't started on my predictions yet. At this rate of going, there will be nobody left!

(My dinner is ready now, so I'll fix the Original Post afterwards)

CaroLiza_fan

 

[text_skate]

http://www.fsrussianchampionship2016.ru/schedule.html#menu

According to this link, the competition will start on 24th December, at 14.00 MSK (11:00 GMT) with the Men’s SP.

 

[Latvian]

Ladies
1. Evgenia Medvedeva 212.xx
2. Elena Radionova 205.xx
3. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva 202.xx
4. Polina Tsurskaya 195.xx
5. Adelina Sotnikova 188.xx
6. Yulia Lipnitskaya 186.xx
7. Maria Sotskova 184.xx
8. Anna Pogorilaya 182.xx
9. Alisa Fedichkina 180.xx
10. Serafima Sakhanovich 178.xx

 

[CaroLiza_fan]

http://www.fsrussianchampionship2016.ru/schedule.html#menu

According to this link, the competition will start on 24th December, at 14.00 MSK (11:00 GMT) with the Men’s SP.

Yipes! A day earlier than I thought!

I wonder what happened? Was it a change of schedule, or did I just type the wrong number in...?

Whatever the answer, it means that I am really up against it now to get my predictions done before Japan starts.

CaroLiza_fan

 

[Layback11]

Ladies
1. Evgenia Medvedeva
2. Elena Radionova
3. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
4. Polina Tsurskaya
5. Anna Pogorilaya
6. Adelina Sotnikova

Men
1. Adian Pitkeev
2. Maxim Kovtun
3. Konstantin Menshov
4. Sergei Voronov
5. Mikhail Kolyada
6. Moris Kviteshali

Dance
1. Bobrova/Soloviev
2. Sinitsina/Katsalapov
3. Ilinykh/Zhiganshin
4. Stepanova/Bukin
5. Monko/Khaliavin
6. Yanovskaya/Mozgov

Pairs
1. Volosozhar/Trankov
2. Kavaguti/Smirnov
3. Tarasova/Morozov
4. Asthakova/Rogonov
5. Zabijako/Enbert
6. No idea...

 

[LRK]

Ladies

Pairs
1. Stolbova/Klimov
2. Volosozhar/Trankov
3. Kavaguti/Smirnov
4. Tarasova/Morozov
5. Asthakova/Rogonov
6. Zabijako/Enbert

Layback - Stolbova/Klimov have withdrawn.

 

[sabinfire]

Yipes! A day earlier than I thought!

I wonder what happened? Was it a change of schedule, or did I just type the wrong number in...?

It's always been December 24th since the full schedule was released about a month or so ago, AFAIK.

And you missed my first post about this on page 2!

 

[voolfee]

Ladies
1. Evgenia Medvedeva 212.xx
2. Elena Radionova 205.xx
3. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva 202.xx
4. Polina Tsurskaya 195.xx
5. Adelina Sotnikova 188.xx
6. Yulia Lipnitskaya 186.xx
7. Maria Sotskova 184.xx
8. Anna Pogorilaya 182.xx
9. Alisa Fedichkina 180.xx
10. Serafima Sakhanovich 178.xx

I think it will be like this: :handw:
1. Evgenia Medvedeva 222.xx
2. Elena Radionova 215.xx
3. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva 212.xx
4. Polina Tsurskaya 208.xx
5. Anna Pogorilaya 203.xx
6. Adelina Sotnikova 198.xx
7. Maria Sotskova 193.xx
8. Yulia Lipnitskaya 190.xx
9. Alisa Fedichkina 186.xx
10. Serafima Sakhanovich 182.xx

 

[Layback11]

Layback - Stolbova/Klimov have withdrawn.

WHAT?

Again?!?!? What is happening to these people? :sad21:

 

[LRK]

WHAT?

Again?!?!? What is happening to these people? :sad21:

A massage apparently...

https://www.instagram.com/p/_l7vQ6RU_Z/

 

[CaroLiza_fan]

It's always been December 24th since the full schedule was released about a month or so ago, AFAIK.

And you missed my first post about this on page 2!

Oops! :

I hadn't visited this thread between starting it and today. And all I did was press the "go to latest post" button, which took me to Page 3 ( ). And as soon as I saw the list of withdrawals, that took over, and I never bothered looking at any other pages.

So, please accept my apologies for making the mistake in the first place, and for not seeing your post.

(And also accept my apologies in advance for not picking Liza to win... )

Right, Ladies finished. Onto the Men...

CaroLiza_fan

 

[daphenaxa]

LADIES
1. Evgenia MEDVEDEVA
2. Polina TSURSKAYA
3. Elena RADIONOVA
4. Elizaveta TUKTAMYSHEVA
5. Anna POGORILAYA
6. Adelina SOTNIKOVA

MEN
1. Adian PITKEEV
2. Maxim KOVTUN
3. Mikhail KOLYADA
4. Sergei VORONOV
5. Konstantin MENSHOV
6. Artur DMITRIEV

PAIRS
1. Tatiana VOLOSOZHAR / Maxim TRANKOV
2. Yuko KAVAGUTI / Alexander SMIRNOV
3. Evgenia TARASOVA / Vladimir MOROZOV
4. Kristina ASTAKHOVA / Alexei ROGONOV
5. Vera BAZAROVA / Andrei DEPUTAT
6. Natalja ZABIJAKO / Alexander ENBERT

ICE DANCE
1.Ekaterina BOBROVA / Dmitri SOLOVIEV
2.Elena ILINYKH / Ruslan ZHIGANSHIN
3.Victoria SINITSINA / Nikita KATSALAPOV
4. Alexandra STEPANOVA / Ivan BUKIN
5. Anna YANOVSKAYA / Sergey MOZGOV
6. Tiffany ZAHORSKI / Jonathan GUERREIRO

 

[Lydia1703]

Men
1. Maxim KOVTUN
2. Adian PITKEEV
3. Sergei VORONOV
4. Konstantin MENSHOV
5. Mikhail KOLYADA
6. Alexander PETROV
7. Dmitri ALIEV

Ladies
1. Evgenia MEDVEDEVA
2. Elizaveta TUKTAMYSHEVA
3. Elena RADIONOVA
4. Polina TSURSKAYA
5. Adelina SOTNIKOVA
6. Maria SOTSKOVA
7. Serafima SAKHANOVICH

Pairs
1. Tatiana VOLOSOZHAR / Maxim TRANKOV
2. Yuko KAVAGUTI / Alexander SMIRNOV
3. Evgenia TARASOVA / Vladimir MOROZOV
4. Kristina ASTAKHOVA / Alexei ROGONOV
5. Vera BAZAROVA / Andrei DEPUTAT
6. Natalja ZABIJAKO / Alexander ENBERT
7. Sofia BIRYUKOVA / Andrei FILONOV

Ice Dance
1. Victoria SINITSINA / Nikita KATSALAPOV
2. Ekaterina BOBROVA / Dmitri SOLOVIEV
3. Elena ILINYKH / Ruslan ZHIGANSHIN
4. Alexandra STEPANOVA / Ivan BUKIN
5. Anna YANOVSKAYA / Sergey MOZGOV
6. Tiffany ZAHORSKI / Jonathan GUERREIRO
7. Ludmila SOSNITSKAIA / Pavel GOLOVISHNIKOV

 

[IlVoloFan]

Ladies Good luck to my beautiful Elena

1- Elena RADIONOVA
2- Evgenia MEDVEDEVA
3- Elizaveta TUKTAMYSHEVA
4- Serafima SAKHANOVICH
5- Yulia LIPNITSKAYA
6- Polina TSURSKAYA
7- Adelina SOTNIKOVA

Men

1- Maxim KOVTUN
2- Adian PITKEEV
3- Sergei VORONOV
4- Konstantin MENSHOV
5- Alexander PETROV
6- Mikhail KOLYADA
7- Dmitri ALIEV

Pairs

1- Tatiana VOLOSOZHAR / Maxim TRANKOV
2- Yuko KAVAGUTI / Alexander SMIRNOV
3- Evgenia TARASOVA / Vladimir MOROZOV
4- Kristina ASTAKHOVA / Alexei ROGONOV 
5- Vera BAZAROVA / Andrei DEPUTAT
6- Natalja ZABIJAKO / Alexander ENBERT
7- Sofia BIRYUKOVA / Andrei FILONOV

Ice Dance

1- Ekaterina BOBROVA / Dmitri SOLOVIEV 
2- Elena ILINYKH / Ruslan ZHIGANSHIN 
3- Victoria SINITSINA / Nikita KATSALAPOV 
4- Alexandra STEPANOVA / Ivan BUKIN 
5- Anna YANOVSKAYA / Sergey MOZGOV
6- Tiffany ZAHORSKI / Jonathan GUERREIRO
7-  Ludmila SOSNITSKAIA / Pavel GOLOVISHNIKOV

 

[desertskates]

Ladies:
1. Medvedeva
2. Tuktamysheva
3. Radionova
4. Tsurskaya
5. Pogorilaya
6. Lipnitskaya

Men:
1. Pitkeev
2. Kovtun
3. Voronov
4. Menshov
5. Kolyada
6. Petrov

Pais:
1. Kavaguti / Smirnov
2. Volosozhar / Trankov
3. Tarasova / Morozov
4. Bazarova / Deputat
5. Astakhova / Rogonov
6. Zabijako / Enbert

Dance:
1. Bobrova / Soloviev
2. Sinitsina / Katsalapov
3. Ilinykh / Zhiganshin
4. Stepanova / Bukin
5. Zahorski / Guerreiro
6. Yanovskaya / Mozgov

 

[CaroLiza_fan]

The Ladies is the Hunger Games.

When you look at the PB’s on the ISU Bios, Adelina Sotnikova is only 2 points ahead of her mini-me. But, Evgenia Medvedeva’s were set at the GP Final a few weeks ago, whereas Sotnikova’s were set at the Olympics nearly 2 years ago.

When you go to the SB’s, Adelina’s is 20.7 points lower than her PB, but it still puts her in 6th place, between Lipnitskaia and Tsurskaya. HOWEVER, this was from the Mordovian Ornament, which we all accept that everybody was overscored at. Her next highest score from this season is 185.11 at the Cup of Russia, which puts her down in 11th, 1 point behind Maria Sotskova and 8 points ahead of Maria Artemieva.

Anna Pogorilaya has the 3rd highest PB of the field, and it was set this season. BUT, it was also from the Mordovian Ornament Her next highest score from this season is 184.16 at the Cup of China. This also puts her in the gap between the 2 Maria’s. But because Anna is 2 points behind Sotskova and 7 points ahead of Artemieva, it would be behind Sotnikova.

I absolutely love Anna. And I would like nothing more than to see her on the podium. But, I don’t think she has had a competition this season where she has not had at least one big fall, but more often plural.

Consequently, much as it pains me to put her outside the Top 10, I do believe that she is more likely to finish there than she is to finish in the Top 6.

For Adelina, I am going to give her the benefit of the doubt. Although I am pushing her down the order, I am not pushing her down quite as far as Anna. Sotskova is at the back of a group of 3 skaters (Leonova and Fedichkina are the others) whose PB’s are covered by less than half a point. So, I am prepared to put Adelina ahead of these 3 skaters.

I am happy enough to keep Lipnitskaia, Tsurskaya and Sakhanovich in their PB order. Although Julia and Sima have not been doing as well as expected this season, and their PB’s both date back to 2014, I believe that the chance to get assigned to the big championships might be the incentive they need to put on a good performance.

The problem for me is 2nd and 3rd. I really do not know what to do!

Liza has won 3 Senior B’s, finished 2nd at Skate Canada, and finished 3rd at the Japan Open. Elena won the Cup of Russia, and finished third at the Cup of China and the GP Final.

BUT, Elena’s PB from the Cup of Russia is a full 10 points higher than Liza’s SB from the Golden Spin. And out of her 3 competitions, Elena’s scores have broken the 200 mark twice. With Liza, it only happened once out of 6 competitions. Admittedly, 1 of those competitions only had a FS (the Japan Open), while another only had an SP (the TEB). But, that still leaves 1 out of 4 (25%), as opposed to 2 out of 3 (66.666%).

Plus, I don’t actually like either of Liza’s programmes for this season. With Elena, it is just the FS that I don’t like, and that is largely down to the monologes.

So, I am putting Elena into second. I’m sorry Liza. I hope you prove me wrong.

When I came to the Men, I was delighted to find that Voronov was top of the ISU PB lists! Yes, they was from 2014, and Pitkeev is breathing down his neck, but any excuse to put one of the older guys on top and I’ll take it!

So, I kept the Top 2 in their PB position.

Then came the big decision. What to do with Kolyada, Dmitriev Jr. and Kovtun? The PB’s for all three of them are covered by just over half a point.

Kovtun’s PB dates back to 2014 Worlds. His SB is a full 10 pints lower at 236.38, but comes from the Mordovian Ornament (which he won). His next highest score is a further 24 points back at 212.63, from when he finished 10th out of 12 at the NHK Trophy. His finished second at his other competition, but that was the TEB where there was only an SP.

So, in other words, there is no way I am moving him up any places. In fact, I am going to move him down to where his NHK score would fit in. Believe it or not, that is 13th!!!

With Mikhail Kolyada and Artur Dmitriev Jr., the PB’s on their ISU Bios were both scored within the past 2 months. So I went to their other PB’s. Artur scored 251.44 at the Volvo Open last month, so that would put him ahead. HOWEVER, at Nationals, Mikhail has the better score, 227.32 at 2013 Junior Nationals, compared to 220.29 at 2011 Senior Nationals for Artur.

In the end, I decided to go with Artur because of the Volvo Open score.

Which brings us to Konstantin Menshov. I would have loved to put Kostya higher. Hey, I would have loved to put him on the podium! But, his PB is a full 10 points behind that group of 3 guys in front of him. And, like Voronov’s, it is from 2014. But, Menshov’s SB is 4 points lower than his PB, and keeps him in the same position. So, I reluctantly left him behind the (now trimmed) group.

So, who to put as my 6th place alternate. This was actually one of the easier decisions. Alexander Petrov and Moris Kvitelashvili have PB’s that are similar. Alexander’s is from 2014, whereas Moris’ is from this season. But, Moris’ is the Mordovian Ornament, and his other scores this season have been no-where near as high. His second highest score is a full 8 points lower than Alexander’s SB, which came at Skate Canada.

HOWEVER, Aliev, Samarin, Shulepov and Gorshkov all have PB’s from this season that are higher than the scores I am considering for both Petrov and Kvitelashvili. So, I moved all of them ahead, making Aliev my 6th place alternate.

I didn’t make any changes to the rest, as I wanted to get onto Pairs.

When I did get to pairs, I spotted something interesting. Apart from Volosozhar / Trankov and the three new couples that do not have ISU Bios, EVERYBODY set their ISU PB’s this season.

Therein lay the problem. It made it next to impossible to make any changes to the order!

After seeing their routines at the Nebelhorn, there is no way I am putting Volosozhar and Trankov anywhere but the top! And I was happy with the order for pretty much everybody else.

The only couple that moved from their PB position was Natalja Zabijako / Alexander Enbert. For the simple reason that the PB on their ISU Bio (196.22) was set at the Mordovian Ornament. Their next best score, from the Cup of Russia, was 180.56. Using this score dropped them down to 6th position, behind Kristina Astakhova / Alexei Rogonov and Vera Bazarova / Andrei Deputat. Which seems about right.

In Dance, I was happy enough with the PB order on the most part. In fact, the only changing I did was towards the bottom end of the field.

There are 2 new couples in Dance that do not have ISU Bios. However, I have found a profile for one of them ( Angelica Kanivets / Alexei Chizhov ) on Stats On Ice. But, their PB on there was very low – only 83.49 points from when they finished last at last year’s Nationals.

I couldn’t find any info on the other couple. So, I put them at the bottom, below Kanivets / Chizhov.

Can’t wait to watch the competitions TOMORROW.

Caroliza_fan


RUSSIAN CHAMPIONSHIPS

Ladies

1. Evgenia MEDVEDEVA, RUS
2. Elena RADIONOVA, RUS
3. Elizaveta TUKTAMYSHEVA, RUS
4. Julia LIPNITSKAIA, RUS
5. Polina TSURSKAYA, RUS
6. Serafima SAKHANOVICH, RUS

Just for fun
7. Adelina SOTNIKOVA, RUS
8. Alena LEONOVA, RUS
9. Alisa FEDICHKINA, RUS
10. Maria SOTSKOVA, RUS
11. Anna POGORILAYA, RUS
12. Maria ARTEMIEVA, RUS
13. Diana PERVUSHKINA, RUS
14. Ekaterina BAYANOVA, RUS
15. Maria PEREDEROVA, RUS
16. Alina KARAVAEVA, RUS
17. Evgenia IVANKOVA, RUS
18. Alexandra SAYUTINA, RUS


Men

1. Sergei VORONOV, RUS
2. Adian PITKEEV, RUS
3. Artur DMITRIEV, RUS
4. Mikhail KOLYADA, RUS
5. Konstantin MENSHOV, RUS
6. Dmitri ALIEV, RUS

Just for fun
7. Alexander SAMARIN, RUS
8. Anton SHULEPOV, RUS
9. Gordei GORSHKOV, RUS
10. Alexander PETROV, RUS
11. Moris KVITELASHVILI, RUS
12. Maxim KOVTUN, RUS
13. Artem LEZHEEV, RUS
14. Andrei LAZUKIN, RUS
15. Vladislav TARASENKO, RUS
16. Evgeni VLASOV, RUS
17. Dmitry BUSHLANOV, RUS
18. Egor MURASHOV, RUS


Pairs

1. Tatiana VOLOSOZHAR / Maxim TRANKOV, RUS
2. Yuko KAVAGUTI / Alexander SMIRNOV, RUS
3. Evgenia TARASOVA / Vladimir MOROZOV, RUS
4. Kristina ASTAKHOVA / Alexei ROGONOV, RUS
5. Vera BAZAROVA / Andrei DEPUTAT, RUS
6. Natalja ZABIJAKO / Alexander ENBERT, RUS

Just for fun
7. Amina ATAKHANOVA / Ilia SPIRIDONOV, RUS
8. Anastasia GUBANOVA / Alexei SINTSOV, RUS
9. Anastasia POLUIANOVA / Stepan KOROTKOV, RUS
10. Alexandra SHEVCHENKO / Ivan BICH, RUS
11. Sofia BIRYUKOVA / Andrei FILONOV, RUS
12. Alisa EFIMOVA / Alexander KOROVIN, RUS


Ice Dance

1. Elena ILINYKH / Ruslan ZHIGANSHIN, RUS
2. Ekaterina BOBROVA / Dmitri SOLOVIEV, RUS
3. Victoria SINITSINA / Nikita KATSALAPOV, RUS
4. Alexandra STEPANOVA / Ivan BUKIN, RUS
5. Anna YANOVSKAYA / Sergey MOZGOV, RUS
6. Tiffany ZAHORSKI / Jonathan GUERREIRO, RUS

Just for fun
7. Ludmila SOSNITSKAIA / Pavel GOLOVISHNIKOV, RUS
8. Anastasia SAFRONOVA / Ilia ZIMIN, RUS
9. Angelica KANIVETS / Alexei CHIZHOV, RUS
10. Margarita SHESTAKOVA / Savely UGRIUMOV, RUS